I expect weakness in HBL's share price tomorrow as Winner69 sells out.!!..lol.
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Obviously full year npat going to be in the $51m to $55m range
So no 'stunning result' but just a solid one come August 16th when Jeff says ' $54.7m which is at the upper end of guidance"
So pro-active provisioning works
Share price got a bit ahead of itself today, only to be brought back to earth with a thump in the afternoon session by Mr market. encouraging sign nevertheless.
Global Dairy prices up strongly overnight - whole milk powder nearly 10%
Dairy crisis over
Economy going gang busters - this just helps
And Wheeler being sucked in by bank economists to cut the OCR (even down to 1.5% they suggest now) the boom will continue
All good for Heartland - key drivers of profitability are general economic conditions and employment levels. Both looking good
You would think you would see a sizable jump in the share price today, like other days, but hopefully this time it will hold onto gains... not to many reasons not to hold HBL right now that is for sure... the highest interest margin on the market is also a nice title to have :t_up:
Er hardly. Even with the 10% rise in whole milk price, the average dairy farmer is still only receiving 70% of his production costs. And with the new season's calving yet to kick in, most farmers have no milk to sell anyway yet. I would say the real dairy crisis is only just beginning with sharemilkers/farmers still borrowing to live, making a loss and having no cashflow. Heartland is still in big trouble with their dairy portfolio I think.
SNOOPY
Don't be so depressing Snoopy me old mate
It's all about sentiment
Headlines this morning said dairy farmers woke up this morning with a big smile on their faces - isn't that a good sign
Next you be telling me that snow in the south couldn't have come at a worse time - just as the little calves are coming into the world
It has happened again - dairy prices surge and Heartland share price surges. (opposite also applies)
Dairy crisis over - no worries for Heartland. After this years proactive provisioning heaps to write back in FY17
At this rate a new all time high in a few days time
There is a story that my father used to tell me when I was young:
'The sheep dog who cried woof'
Just in case your father never told it to you it goes like this:
The sheep dog who cried woof
The sheep dog kept crying woof and everybody came running to save the sheep from the woof, but there was no woof.
People got fed up of missing their dinner and favourite TV programs because they were running to save the sheep from the woof and they was no woof.
So after a while they said 'Bad dog' and stopped coming to save the sheep when the sheep dog cried woof.
Then one day the woof came...
The End.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Sounds similar to The Boy Who Cried Wolf, except with a sheep dog and a woof (whatever that is).
I think the dog cried "WOF" not "Woof". It means Warrant Of Fitness. We are well positioned!
https://www.wordans.com/wvc-13299021...2/5192_650.jpg
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: hold HBL, but not complacent about it.
Even if they announce $54.7m npat it really is more than that
Remember they spent a million or two on that 28 page booklet they sent to shareholders outlining how a capital return might work. One non- recurring expense and possibly a couple of others.
Heartland probably wont be returning capital in the foreseeable future. I reckon they will follow the other banks and shore up their capital base in these apparent turbulent times globally.
Doesn't stop them raising some Tier 2 capital to fund lending growth, particularly so seeing no acquisition on the horizon
Back to today - shareprice 140 and a new all ti me high close (or maybe tomorrow)
Hope they include some numbers as to how many zillions they lending through their de facto shopfront in Harmoney.
Seems like more than half of Harmoney lending is Heartlands - not really P2P is it? Do they get first dibs of everything leaving the rest to the keen punters?
With returns (RAR) probably >12% (Heartland must get preferential rates eh) a good lurk
Today tht 140 day for the share price?