Originally Posted by
winner69
You’ve been lucky to have been in the market for the last 10 years ... one of the better 10 years in history.
As rankin/beagle say PE ratios could contract to more normal levels ...but usually over shoot on the down side. All this takes years.
Secular bear markets (not price but a cycle of contracting PE ratio) are bad news for investors. Historically market PEs fall below 10 in secular bear markets ...even though the economy and earnings continue to grow.
If we are to have a secular bear returns over the next 10 years will be very low. Some analyst have 10 future returns at close to 0% pa.
Thus Yoda your 10% pa probably won’t happen over the next years and as you hinted you don’t want to lose your hard earned gains. Just do what you think is right with each stock you own and there’s no shame in holding cash.
But then again it may be just a storm in a teacup at the moment — after all Trump has said the market has made a big mistake.