Hardly. This won't affect them at all. They'll still manage to poll over 20% :D
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That's right FP. People who are interested in Politics, as we all are on this site, should recall that National achieved 26% in 2002 yet they survived and thrived. Labour will do the same. One would be extremely foolish to say we will never see a Social Democratic government in NZ again. Every day in power is a day closer to your demise, no one knows what form it will take. However the big risks for continual National Government are as follows
1. The loss of John Key
2 . Media turns against an incumbent government- a much underrated risk for any government in my opinion.
3.the TFAC factor Time For A Change
4.Economic cycle reverse.
5. Internal party friction
it's nice to be here in Brisbane, enjoying the weather - 25 deg - and the food and the ambience of a large city where everyone seems to be enjoying life - but - there is still the anti- govt. anger and guess what? -it over Chinese buying real estate that was not marketed to locals and several other points that might be nz news. However, this govt. appears unpopular to a degree that must make them seriously envious of John Key.
Nothing to do with that, it'll be about fewer jobs being available to Australians, after a change to more Neo-liberal policies. If they step further away from carefully targeted support for strategic jobs and capability, it'll get worse over time. The fact is that neoliberal policies have not worked better than social democratic policies in any of the countries it has been tried in, and NZ has first-hand experience of that. We were the subjects of the first experiment on an entire country, started in 1984.