Yes tommorrow will be interesting, more so than today. Am predicting scream out of blocks tommorrow but then slight retraction later this week as offloaders run out.
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Yes tommorrow will be interesting, more so than today. Am predicting scream out of blocks tommorrow but then slight retraction later this week as offloaders run out.
Yes, thats exactly I thought when I was away from the net....as snoopy said they will they the due diligence. They have done the due diligence that's why they bought in june.-Arrovest. Since they want to buy more than 20%, they have to give notice, while waiting to do this they bring all sort of nuisance.
FWIW, a few details gleaned from Wikipedia.
Dean Foods is an American food and beverage company that specializes in dairy products. It maintains plants and distributors in the US and UK and has 100 facilities located in 35 American states as well as five manufacturing plants in Belgium, France, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands.
Its HQ is in Dallas, Texas, although its dairy section seems to be based in Pennsylvania. Its net income in FY2012 was $161m on revenue of $11,462m. Its total assets were $5.6 billion and it had 22,000 employees.
Dean Foods products include frozen and canned foods, dairy products and condiments. It produces milk in the US under a number of regional and national brands.
I've been topping up for 11 months now form 69c down to 47c. But it's never to late. Sold some today for 68c and $750 profit, then bought slightly less of them back again for 71c:confused:. Had the order at 66c but missed out and had to pay 71c. I find with this stock, if you get a gut feeling, just do it, if you don't somebody else will. My gut tells me to keep buying at the moment. Get in before all those foreigners buy us out. 83,500,000 plus shares have traded in the last 16 trading days. Thinking of buying another lot tomorrow which will push average price back up to 56c...Just do it:t_up:
Anything is possible in terms of how a deal is structured. Now that we have another entity coming in that makes it really interesting. I'm tending to side with KW here where there is some risk to existing shareholders if the deal is structured so that FF can get out or downsize their exposure and a2mc makes a cash placement to DFC which obviates the need for a CR.
This sort of move has been done by a2mc before when they made an institutional placement prior to listing on the main board. Existing shareholders were not offered a rights issue and the SP went from 0.58 to 0.50 overnight! (the price of the placement)
That's a possible negative. The positive is even if that happens the long term looks good and DFC will certainly help to get USA distributions and revenue firing. The market will react quickly to that potential, but again the potential needs to be converted to fact (also snoopys point)
In a previous post I indicated 0.76 on a DD and a 0.85 to 1.10 offer. That's only going to happen on a buy out, which per above may not happen if you read between the lines. a2mc have indicated that its more of a proposal scenario.
I would've done this too..Looks like ATM is bottoming out but lets be a well behaved disciplinced TAer and wait for more buy signals and that confirmational the bull/bear 58.5c resistance to bust.......That resistance has broken great news :cool: here we go ..bugger too late :scared: it gapped up...now what :mad ;::confused:
Dilemma time!!!:crying:
Damm..Buying now is big risk problem...eh? "Could this gap get filled"??....Would Murphy's Law apply, if I buy it will gap down, if I don't buy it will bust through 75c resistance and propel itself to 80, 90 or even higher due to the sudden less gap filler risk?
Sometimes awaiting entry using TA can be a total bitch...eh?...been there done that...and I've proved Murphy's Law many times as well..
Best of luck Mate
http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/agr...95352#comments
A couple of points: I made a polite comment on the website above, (which has not been published), about the inaccuracy of paragraph 11: "It is understood Freedom would have been prepared to continue the informal talks with a2 on a confidential basis, but a2 opted to disclose the approach to the market." They had the info completely around the wrong way, as it was Freedom Foods who 'outed' themselves, with their announcement to the ASX - a2MC has continued to maintain confidentiality. At 2:29pm (23/6) I received an email from Lachlan Hastings, the Online Editor for The Weekly Times stating:-
"Thank you for your comment posted on our story "Perich kicks off dairy wars"
For the sake of clarity, I have removed the paragraph, which originated in a copy syndicated from The Australian.
Thanks again for alerting us to the issue.
Kind regards,
lachlan"
As far as I can tell, this hasn't happened - yet.
The other point I note is that a2MC made a presentation on June 3 at the UBS Emerging Companies Conference.
Good luck to all holders!
This is the advantage of picking a company when its shaping up to have a big future and sticking to your guns. Seeweed and I have been advocating these guys for quite some time (as opposed to SNOOPY, who is a great contrary indicator I must say!) and buying as many shares at low prices as we can get, likely he is as "overweight" as I am. I aren't actually "overweight" as "morbidly obese" in ATM now! In our opinions (I am speaking for Seeweed without speaking with him, danger danger!) ATM has been a hugely growing future value proposition for quite some time. That it is being recognised now with a potential takeover offer is actually a bit sad for me as I would have loved to be hanging on for the ride! If that oppourtunity presents itself, I may just do that.
Blobb of the month:t_up::p
75c here we come.:)
We all had a good sleep and primed for the excitement that today brings
Instead of 95-110 estimate/guess I reckon it now 110-125 range ...whoopee
Really depends on how much extra cash needed to get US moving (wonder how much they were going to raise?) which could temper what they prepared to pay.
Well done on your conviction blobbles, and certainly if anyone was more deserved it would have to be you see weed. Been a very interesting and at times frustrating hold this one. Will be fascinating to see how things play out from here.
For every cent that the NZD drops against USD, we should be expecting the share price to reflect that. It hasn't been the case so far as share price was falling and so was NZD so in real terms the price has been tanking.
This is an international company with huge potential and Fund managers (and many others) bought it at $0.90 when the NZD/USD was in the 80's. We need to back ourselves and fight to keep this company in our hands or get a price for it which truly reflects the potential value of it.
Affirm Winner. I've went with the behavioural theory that there'd be the flaw of conservatism bias on Monday when this was announced. Sure enough as people are slowly adjusting their beliefs to what has happened and getting used to ATM now being 70 cent range, the price has been ticking up accordingly.
I couldn't believe when it dropped back down to 66c. Someone just announced a takeover and it was up only approx 10c!
Has been a good week. Efficient market, pffttttt.
Well done to the obese and morbidly obese!! :t_up: Congratulations on your convictions, in buying more and at those lower levels. :cool:
I am looking forward to the ride to come, and should be interesting over the coming days/weeks. Just hope if a takeover does happen, it is full & fair value - but that is so hard to judge.
Unfortunately I'm on A2 lite, only 7% of portfolio and bought in the mid-60's. But puts a bit of excitement in the game, just like buying into NZR recently. Trying to make up for the long painful death at NZO......
Have been thinking a bit on this. Exit timing is everything. Major concern is "is the takeover bid real?" - have come to the conclusion it might be as neither Arrovest or Freedom Foods will be wanting the price to tank now from such levels, which would happen if it all falls over. Thus I would expect a successful takeover bid to wait no more than 12 months to sort a NYSX listing and ride the gravy wave to kingdom come.
I have no idea what a valid buy price would be but I don't care anymore - too busy looking at new Range Rovers :D
I would like to play till the end, no matter which way the game plays out. Even if the takeover was to fall thro', by now we all know what the potential market out there on global scale (more so in US).
Come on someone, sell me your shares, There is only 3736 to go to full order:D
Whose selling it at these prices anyway.
I would not be getting too excited yet. There is still a chance that the proposal is nothing more than a placement of shares to bank roll further rollout in the USA. I'm a long term holder but I must admit ATM now represents a tad under 50% of my NZ portfolio at current prices.
Prefer to look at the FA rather than the TA which is why some of the TA boys have been caught short.
My prediction is as I have already stated that until we have more information on what this "proposal" is all about that speculation will keep it in the 0.75 to 0.80 range.
The aussy market seems a bit more buoyant than the NZ market with the $NZ equivalent buyers at around 0.78 compared with plenty of sellers around 0.77 on the NZX at the moment.
Should be an interesting day!
Early days but Aussie currently looking like it will open at +70c so 79c NZ.
ok....I think its worth a lot more.
Now 72c on ASX / 81c NZ....
I was kicking myself a few of days ago for selling out of SUM and buying more ATM... Now im pretty happy with the outcome. Also happy to sell them for anything over $1.30 as it would be a nice chunk out of my home loan for now. I stupidly watched a massive profit in XRO wither away - keeping a close eye on this puppy now!
Open at 10am their time or 12 our time...
Looks like 75c opening if the depth is anything to go by...however there are always pre-open adjustments, so bit hard to read thro'.....
Match price is still 72c AU, interesting that NZ hasn't risen to meet as yet, huge gap.
The current AU match price is AU69c
AU69/0.8869 = NZ78c (0.8869 being current exchange rate).
Current NZ price 77c so about right. No real arbitrage opportunity.
After reading this thread I think I'll invest in downstream speculation instead.
Dulux Group Limited (DLX.ASX) is a provider of quality paint.
Seeing as there is so much yacht-painting going on here there is sure to be a rush on this stock.
Although, I've seen yacht-painting before... Sometimes people don't realise they're painting with blood (as it runs down the street) before it's too late :D
What's the score in Aussie sb9
Mine not working
Not sure either...no trades yet???
Trading hault
Notice Pending
Looks like one of the exchanges has stuffed up.
Another article to read while waiting..
http://www.farmonline.com.au/news/ag...s/2735885.aspx
Update on expression of interest As previously announced, The a2 Milk Company Limited ("a2MC") has received an indicative, conditional and non-binding expression of interest from two parties with respect to an acquisition of all of the shares in a2MC. ASX has requested in response to media speculation that a2MC confirms the identity of the parties who submitted the expression of interest. The parties are Freedom Foods Limited and Dean Foods Company. The Board is continuing to seek further information in order to evaluate the proposal and will update the market on further developments as appropriate. a2MC has no further comment to make at this time.
nzx frozen also:confused:
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/dire...spx?id=3897971
It's indicative...
It's conditional...
It's non-binding...
It's an expression of interest...
It's everything you need to know to throw every last cent you own at ATM.NZX - why wait?
Throw your chart, your spread sheet, your calculator out the window today!
:D
I'm getting caught in the hype.. #chewsnails
POP GOES THE SP - $1?? +
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dean_Foods
ATM: Update on expression of interest
12:48pm, 24 Jun 2015
..... ASX has requested in response to media speculation that a2MC confirms the identity of the parties who submitted the expression of interest. The parties are Freedom Foods Limited and Dean Foods Company. ...
Well im very suprised share price reacted in this way. Im buying a few more. Still risk but id say a company like deans has seen there success in Aus and now they are in their backyard want to own a2.
While there's still risks involved as alluded to, whats the IP alone worth to a company like Deans?
Buy a company that will eventually pay for itself and get all that exclusive IP to be used throughout their massive distribution network for free... priceless.
[QUOTE=KW;
If I had been as disciplined as I should have, I would have sold that parcel of 59c shares as the price dropped again. I held on only because ATM is my pet stock, and I figured we all get to have one LOL :p[/QUOTE]
Glad to know you're human KW, phew; thought you were a fembot for a mo. .BTW My pet stock is chicken.Hard to trade but boy does it create a short cut to flavour in amateur cooking.My maggi gives the perception of free range chicken just like A2 gives the perception of health benefits.
Feel a bit sad about having to sell.Would like to keep a chunck for long term.I like the milk and would like to get divs one day. Same thing happened to fpa a couple years ago. Feel like deans wants to buy it before they start fully promoting it in the US. Reckon sp will be $2 to $3 one day when all those healthy Yanks start drinking it.
Can't understand the excitement. a2mc said from the very beginning that it was NOT a takeover bid...it was a proposal. What does that mean...only one thing, it will be a placement which will act as a cornerstone investment for Deans. It is of course possible that Deans will eventually move to acquire 100% but I can bet on the fact that they will want to gauge the success in the US market first giving it every possibility to succeed. This is all good news for current shareholders, however as I predict, a2mc with this exposure and interest moves to a different level. The placement will be around the 0.70c mark maybe a little below, but until growth in the target markets is proved the range will sit around the 0.75 to 0.80 mark (add a little speculation premium over the placement price)
The full paragraph reads:
I think the triple qualification of a mere expression of interest makes it pretty clear that it is not a full takeover offer...Quote:
As previously announced, The a2 Milk Company Limited ("a2MC") has received an indicative, conditional and non-binding expression of interest from two parties with respect to an acquisition of all of the shares in a2MC.
Whether a full takeover offer eventuates is the real question.
I'm not sure it is "normal legal language", KW...
I don't see how a conditional, non-binding, indicative expression of interest can be a full offer or a partial offer under the Takeovers Code.
And if it was, as you say, an offer under the Takeovers Code, the market manipulation provisions under s 262 of the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 arguably would not apply thanks to s 263...
I'm interested to see other examples of conditional, non-binding, indicative expressions of interest of takeovers.
It could just be that A2 Milk had no choice but to announce the conditional, non-binding, indicative expression of interest because it was material even though it isn't even a realistic prospect...
Think about it :D
Initially a2mc stated that it was not a takeover offer. I guess what that could have meant was that it was not a formal offer. It was just a friendly proposal to see how a2mc would react to a formal offer for all the shares.
I doubt that the terms of the expression of interest would have changed in its intent over just a day.
In this case then I go along with what KW is saying. But it is still not a formal offer yet.
If Freedom is involved and they already own 20% of the company, they will have to bid for at least 51% of the company. That would be a partial takeover offer. However they could make a full takeover offer and kneecap it by offering a derisory price which many investors would not accept. That way they would not have to stump up the cash for a full takeover of ATM, yet could still take control by taking out those investors that did sell out.
SNOOPY
Indeed.
Although it's an interesting process being followed here.
Section 41 of the Takeovers Code prescribes a process that much be followed. A notice of intention to make an offer must be accompanied by documentation set out in Schedule 1 of the Code. This must be disclosed. A formal full or partial offer follows later.
What we have here looks like something else. The Takeovers Code cannot be contracted out of. The Takeovers Act also includes an offence of the usual misleading/market manipulation but extends it to "any transaction or event regulated by the takeovers code or incidental or preliminary to a transaction or event that is or is likely to be regulated by the takeovers code..." But how is anyone meant to know the non-binding expression of interest (seemingly preliminary to a notice of intention to make an offer) is not misleading if it is confidential?
My question is this - is there other examples of a completely qualifified, confidential (keeping in mind the Code cannot be contracted out of) conditional (etc etc) expression of interest for a takeover? Is this really normal and on what basis? If not, why are they exempt from following the normal process just because they say it's non-binding?
I would expect a justifiable price rise on the basis of an s 41 notice with all the trimmings, but not this :D
FIN.NZX started with an annoucement without much detail...
Followed over a month later with an s 41 notice...
Although I think to some extent you can distinguish between the airey, thinly detailed announcement of FIN and ATM to some extent... Something to ponder...
The only certain thing is that nothing is certain :D
I was wondering when someone would ask this. I cannot recall ever another example of such a wishy washy announcement. Its a shambles. Where is the NZX here?? People are trading away in the dark. At the very least there should be a please explain or alternatively the stock should be in a trading halt.
Interesting, which kind of makes me firm up a bit more on this being a real attempt. The Perich, FF and Dean foods teams MUST know that flying close to the wind like this and markedly affecting a SP could get them some pretty hefty "please explain" notices that won't be delivered in a nice fashion. Why would they bother for that grief just to take a look and say "yeah nah"?
My question is this - is there other examples of a completely qualifified, confidential (keeping in mind the Code cannot be contracted out of) conditional (etc etc) expression of interest for a takeover? Is this really normal and on what basis? If not, why are they exempt from following the normal process just because they say it's non-binding?
Who is saying that they are exempt from following normal processes because the proposal is non binding Robbo?
How could an expression of interest not be deemed to be an intention under S41 of the take over code?
Its a bit like saying to your date "how would you react if I proposed that we slept together tonight". You could say that the intention was that you really did want to sleep with your date but wanted to gauge the reaction first. So its a bit hard to say that a proposal is not an intention otherwise why submit it!
I suspect because of the relationship between the parties that the expression of interest was a feeler as to gauging the reaction of a2mc to a full takeover.
In this case a2mc would have been in breach of the TO code if the expression was not tabled to the market
Because notice under s 41 requires very specific disclosure and formalities. That's how. It's nothing like your dating experiences at all.
So in FIN the offeror approach the majority holder..
In another example the company acquired 10%...
Haven't read the rest yet but it seems to me there's a missing piece of the puzzle here.
"The a2 Milk Company Limited ("a2MC") has received an indicative, conditional and non-binding expression of interest from two parties with respect to an acquisition of all of the shares in a2MC."
I mean the last part sounds like a full takeover but the rest of the announcement makes it sound like it was an idea mentioned at the local pub. You think you are being offered a powerful cocktail but you could end up with orange cordial...
One assumes at this point that the "proposal" included no option for a partial takeover or other arrangement short of a full takeover such as cornerstone placement. But presumably that can all change when FF-Deans have done due diligence and get into discussions with ATM. Incidentally, FF would already have access to most of what they need to know, since they have a member on ATM's board.
My guess is that it would be relatively easy to get 51% at somewhere approaching $1 but pretty difficult to get 90%. I'm sure even Milford would have its price, and likewise Cliff Cook (Mountain Road Investments), but there are some holders, large and small, who are firm believers in the A2 proposition and would be keen to ride this project out.
I can't see myself selling my whole stake, although I might sell part and hold the proceeds to meet a possible cap raising. Call me old-fashioned, but I feel a sense of obligation to honour the memory of Corran McLachlan and Howard Paterson by trying to keep a chunk of the old firm in NZ hands and keep the original A2 proposition alive.
Now that a2 have been forced to officially disclose who the parties were (even though those parties didn't originally want to be disclosed) I would say there will others now doing serious number crunching and contemplating a possible offer as well.
A2 is in 'play' as they say even though Freedoms 19% could be seen as a hurdle ....but even some here say Freedom might be a willing seller at the right price.
Somebody probably will front sooner than later I reckon .....whoopee .....and best case a bidding war?
Whn you look - milford 9.8%, FNZC 5%, Super 5%? ACC?, these guys have a bit of power...
So good to see mention of Corran McLachlan and Howard Paterson. It is very sad that the founders are not here to witness the growth of their work and vision.
Looking into Dean's - they are the biggest milk processor and direct distributor in the states and process 40% liquid milk consumed in the US according to one source I found. They have many many brands including an organic brand which has caused some controversy. So I'd say they have seen how A2 went in Aus and are thinking if they do well in the U.S. It will cut into their market share somewhat. They have the means to pick up the a2 brand and simply hook it into there processing / distribution infrastructure. I'd say either full takeover - quick buck but a little upsetting to see another good NZ company head overseas, or Dean's is onboard with shareholding which potentially would have a lot more upside long term - either way we will do well. We won't do so well if they just walk away, in that case it will be back to buisness as usual!
Silver, I'm not so sure it would be bad if Deans ultimately didn't make a bid. You can be certain their initial approach will have been very much noticed in the US dairy, retailing and beverage sectors and if it does nothing else it will have generated wider interest in A2, showing it to be a product that other big US companies should be taking notice of.
And there are ways Deans and a2MC could work together in the US market without Deans necessarily taking the company over. I'm thinking of a deal like that between a2MC and Muller Wiseman in England. Once the parties start talking, all kinds of options could come into play. A cooperative deal between a2MC and Deans would be the ideal outcome in my book. Deans has an immense network of farmers, processing facilities, connections to retail chains and a big milk distribution system. a2MC has the IP and understands the product, and I'm sure would be prepared to license Deans to use the a2 brand in the States. Money for jam, from which we could benefit.
Spinning top today - markets undecided on direction. Tomorrow will be telling.
Robbo, does 'notice and pause' still apply?
Not quite with you there Robbo.
Are you saying that a2mc is exempt from complying with S41 of the TO code because the proposal is non binding?
It seems to me that they have complied by virtue of the fact that they have made full disclosure of the expression of interest in FF & DFC acquiring all the shares in a2mc.
Am I reading you correctly here?
think I read a2 have a meeting in London on Monday and the consortium may give an indicative takeover price on the weekend
If any offer I can see 85 cents and the words 'a 30% premium to the share price before the expressions of interest were announced'
Sounds a great deal for a cash strapped not profitable company needing heaps of cash to grow.
So today's price sort of mid way .... 50/50 bet as it were
It would have to be higher than the 52 week high of 77c. I assume all the 90,000,000 a2 share buyers in the last 16 days, me included, will not accept anything under a $1. All the media attention in the last few days plus today's big headline in the herald on page b7 in big black print "Pursuit of A2 Milk pushes shares higher". It all adds to the hype and buying frenzy like sharks in for their full. Would not be surprised if sp went to 79c to 80c today with new and old holders getting in on the act and maybe 90c to a $1 next week. I will buy another block today.:t_up:
Down 2c to 73c twice as many sellers, 1.55 mill shares thru on opening.
I wouldn't get too excited guys, as I said yesterday, the market will pare back this week with profit takers and there will be no further rises until more info comes to hand. DYOR but its not gonna be straightforward
[QUOTE=see weed;577962]Correct me if I am wrong. Didn't a2 milk have over $110,000,000 sales in Australia alone?
not a lot of profit tho seeweed....im sorry but i smell a rat in the system here somewhere and its called freedom...not long ago we were all wondering who was driving the share price down etc and why...and now we get on odd
maybe takeover offer with so many conditions...hope im wrong but sold a few just in case
lol, having written what I just did, some lunatic is offering buy for 100c on the ASX.....crazy
No, you're not reading me (or s 41 which does not include a step of sending "friendly email that can be announced and speculated upon willy-nilly") correctly.
Here's an example of an s 41 notice and appropriate disclosure.
Here's what s 41 says:
All the details required in Schedule 1 must be with the takeover notice otherwise it is not a takeover notice. This must be disclosed to the market. No mention of "friendly email that can be announced and speculated upon willy-nilly." A takeover notice has seemingly not been given, and indeed if it has then the company is withholding it for reasons of some type of contractual confidentiality agreement...Quote:
41 Takeover notice
(1) The offeror must send to the prospective target company a notice in writing that—
(a) states the offeror's intention to make an offer under this code; and
(b) contains, or is accompanied by, the information specified in Schedule 1 (except clauses 1 and 4) stated as at the date of the notice.
(2) If the offer will include a regulated offer under the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013, the notice referred to in subclause (1) must be accompanied by a copy of every relevant document.
(3) In subclause (2), every relevant document means every product disclosure statement or other document that must be registered or lodged with, or produced to, any of the following persons or bodies for the offer to comply with the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (including any exemption granted under that Act or any mutual recognition scheme established under that Act) or with the laws of any overseas jurisdiction in which the offer of the financial products is to be made:
(a) the Registrar of Financial Service Providers (including any equivalent person or body in an overseas jurisdiction):
(b) any regulatory body (including a regulator in an overseas jurisdiction):
(c) any offeree of the financial products.
(4) The notice may contain, or be accompanied by, any additional information that the directors of the offeror determine could affect the decision of the offerees to accept or reject the offer.
Here's some good diagrams and information: http://www.takeovers.govt.nz/assets/...t-linked2a.pdf You will note the diagram on page 4 refers a takeover notice. No mention of "friendly email that can be announced and speculated upon willy-nilly."
I'm still trying to figure out why companies are allowed to qualify their "not-a-takeover announcements", getting the market hyped up and then taking a wait-and-see approach to whether an s 41 notice arrives (or not). Still haven't worked this one out.
Keep focused on the long term boys. Exposure money cannot buy even though the deal may not go ahead.
I'm a bit sceptical over Deans ability to take on more debt, having looked at the B/S, but Freedom is in there as well, so anything could happen. Worth waiting on balance of risk to see what comes out of it. Accept that until we get more details SP will drift around the 69c to 76c mark
Deans operate scores of different brands including Oak farms in Texas. If I'm not mistaken isn't this the farm that was advocating a2 only milk a year ago NT?
Wonder who else could be interested and updating their models / plans right now
Got the same bulls*** yesterday with buyers at A$0.72c which converted to NZ$0.82 before the market opened. Just someone hyping the market to sell into.
Wait until the Aussy market opens and can guarantee it won't start trading at anywhere near that level. There is no additional info.
Anyway why buy at A$1.00 when there is plenty to buy on the NZX at around A$0.64 (NZ$0.73)
Actually Xerof that's something I've often been curious about and searched the Net without success. Could you briefly educate those of us who aren't familiar with it? Thanks
In reality the conditions of the bid are breached in that a2 revealed the identity of the parties and now the parties can walk away if they like so risk is large for any buyers now I would think
Fonterra stays mum on A2 speculation - nbr
be good if company stayed in nz hands