Damn! The reservoir was supposed to be full of gas not oil.:D
Printable View
according to my simplistic back-of-envelope calculations, NZO's gross share of condensate from KS-6 and KS-8 alone (providing they are sustained) is worth 45c per annum.
If the K7 well comes in between the two, that will be around 15000 barrels/day of condensate,
i.e. 2250 for NZO. Not a bad addition to the TUI barrels.
Question1: what price do you assume for condensate, same as crude oil?
Question2: is there any significance to the fact that a smaller choke was used, i.e. at 1" the
well would produce even more?
I just came across this article from Crown minerals
http://www.crownminerals.govt.nz/cms...searchterm=lpg
“The plan would supply around 20PJ of sales gas a year together with condensate production commencing at 1.7 million barrels a year and LPG output at 45,000 tonnes a year.”
Condensate only needs to average 4658 barrels per day to get 1.7Mbarrel a year. So based on news of approx 10,000 barrels per day from the two wells Kupe is looking like a real winner, well and truly exceeding expectations?
Q1 condensate is worth a lot more than crude as less refining.
Q2 flow was too high for a 1" choke - pity not!
if K7 delivers more of the same, then standby for a reserves upgrade in a few months time.
nzo price is going up tomorrow on back of both the test flows k8/7 plus tui reaching 13 m barrels
- which side of 10c? -
the K6 test to come in on friday
look to the weather gods for a nice break of 2-3 days, so can shift the rig.
would an extra tug on the shift job enable a quicker shift? instead of relying on just the rig tender - me think so and could be money well spent - even if just holding rig in stable position for the critical leg up and down tasks.
would be a pity waiting for a week or 2 delay waiting for the weather window
M
.
Latest numbers look good .....
I'm guesing they used a smaller choke because if they had used a full 1 inch choke the flow rate would have been much higher ...... maybe their gas flow meters would have been off the scale ??
And lots of condensate production, looks like Kupe is going to bring home the bacon !!
Looking forward to the final test and the summing up and interpretation.
Z
Thanks Zobra for your imput. But the final summing up of what this elephant looks like will only come once the results of Momoho are known.Another thing that has to be kept in mind is the JV's built the plant several times bigger than the last public stated size of KUPE. So the real question is will the figures equal this or exceed this size,as some expectation of greater flow will already be built into the SP.
Anyways as i write it is all doom and gloom as the price of oil has fell to 128-80. Anybe KUPE will have to be abandom at this price or do we hold in there until next week or two when it goes over 140 .
sure was disappointing to hear the price of oil has dropped on this mornings money markets
This will obscure all the good news
How much has it dropped-have a look at the grapph of oil price since december
Tapis has dropped a few cents overnight from an all time high
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market...=markets_crude
poo is on a beautiful straight line up !
the most popular news stories on nzx new website still includes last weeks news about the fspo charter extension.
as regards most popular companies - nzo & prc are listed
waiting for kupe production tests to be listed
M
Saw this article in the paper from Monday.
Of Note:
"Firstly, after inflation and the weak dollar is taken into account, oil is only marginally more expensive than during the oil crisis of the 1980s."
"there are still vast untapped oil fields that will supply the world's needs for centuries to come."
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegrap...001030,00.html
-----
Oil's well, and prices will fall again
By Tom Bower
May 26, 2008 12:00am
DAY by day, the oil price moves remorselessly upwards, inflicting pain on every household and motorist. The same barrel of crude that sold for $65 in 2007 is now $135 and might soon cost $200.
But across the world, 86 million barrels of oil are produced every day, which at the moment is sufficient - not least because consumption in America, which burns a quarter of the world's supply every day, is actually declining.
Alarmists also say that the world's oil supplies have passed their "peak", that the world has consumed half of all its oil and that the remaining one trillion barrels will be gone by 2025. This is quite simply tosh.
No one it seems is willing to proclaim the truth: There is no oil shortage. The fact is that we are all being forced to pay an artificially high price because of a combination of factors.
First there is the greed of the oil traders, bankers and speculators in the world's financial centres who are pocketing billions from our misery. Then there is the venality of oil producing countries, whose economies profit massively from artificially keeping the oil price high.
And next there are the scare stories - from hurricanes heading for oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico to power failures in Iraq, that these two groups exploit together in an unholy alliance to push the prices up.
On top of this OPEC - the organisation of the world's major oil producers - stands accused of slyly engineering the crisis in order to drive up prices.
The claim, made by both President Bush and Gordon Brown, is that OPEC is a self-interested cartel which is refusing to increase oil production and bring down prices.
The result of the conspiracy is awesome. Since oil prices started rising in 2003, the OPEC states amassed over $US1 trillion in so-called sovereign wealth funds.
But it would be wrong of us in the West to despair. Firstly, after inflation and the weak dollar is taken into account, oil is only marginally more expensive than during the oil crisis of the 1980s. Back then, the bubble eventually burst and prices collapsed.
Secondly, if consumers quickly commissioned alternatives including nuclear power, renewable energy and environmentally acceptable coal-fired power stations, the oil producers would become terrified that their source of income was endangered.
So throughout the pain remember two things: all price bubbles burst, and there are still vast untapped oil fields that will supply the world's needs for centuries to come.
------
Crisis essentially accounting problem By TERRY HALL - The Dominion Post | Monday, 28 April 2008
Investors are in for nasty shocks over the coming weeks when they see the lousy, and even negative, returns from a wide range of funds, especially those specialising in shares (other than NZO)......new accounting rules insisting that investments are valued on a mark-to- market basis.
This term is likely to draw blank looks from most investors, but it has far- reaching consequences.
Mark-to-market regulations require .... accountants to value assets daily or regularly. It has been rigidly enforced by accountants trying to avoid the sort of criticism they received during the dotcom bubble and crash of 2000.
I think that this means that NZO will be expected to value PRC at market and add another ~$40M to their profit for this year. It kills the tax losses and paves the way for the next fully imputed dividend. Does anyone know if/how these revaluations get taxed?
per chance did the 2 kupe production tests thus far have any press coverage in nz?
they were covered in international energy sites energy review & oil & gas international
the kupe news is huge and was expecting some significant gain in the sp today - maybe when asx opens will see something
M
I skim-read the DomPost this morning and there was no mention whatsoever.... not really surprised though - NZO seems to be either too hard to understand and write about or the success too much of a positive story with all the doom and gloom that is prevalent these days..
I saw an interesting piece on CNN. They showed how much reserves ae sitting in Middle East, Canada, Brazil etc. What they didnt say was that the Brazil oil field was 4 miles underground and cost of extracting the Canada reserves to be commercially viable requires oil prices to stabilze well over $100 per barrel ( guessing on Canada).
There may be enough oil for 40 or so years but the cost of extracting it may not be viable unless oil is $200 plus for example.
On the supply side of things, Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has proposed easing taxes to stimulate oil output. This could add a further 12 million barrels a day to the market.
News that US consumer confidence fell to a record low for the last 16 years and a strengthening US dollar last night all had a major impact on the price of oil.
Oil has had some trouble getting back up to those recent highs and stalled around US$133.50. Once the market reopened last night it was all over and prices suffered a downward surge to the mid-US$128 zone.
Option trading ceases 23 june on market that is.
.
NZOG announcement late this afternoon.
**************************************************
KS-7 ST1 test results are as follows:
- Depth and interval tested: 3,188m - 3,280m measured depth below rotary table
- Sustained Gas Rate = 41.8 million standard cubic feet / day
- Condensate Rate = 6,393 Stock Tank Barrels / day
- Choke Size = 56/64 inches
- Surface Flowing Pressure = 3,051 psig
- Fluids Recovered = Gas and Condensate
This now concludes the testing phase of the three development wells which
will remain shut in as the rig prepares to move to the Momoho exploration
well location.
************************************************** ***********
Great Numbers !! Looking forward to the summary announcement on field deliverability from operator.
But in the meantime looks like Kupe will deliver in spades !!!!
.
Where did your $40M figure come from? The figures I have indicate a bit over $70M at current price.
I don't think unrealised gains are taxable - there would have been a major commotion if this had been brought in, but I haven't heard anything. The idea appears to be to reflect any such gains/losses somewhere in the accounts. I can see a few companies headlining net profit before revaluations this year!
.
Have just listened to DS presentation to Excellence in Oil & Gas Conference in Sydney .....
Well delivered presentation combined with slides ..... great technology !!
To access browse to NZOG website, latest news, and click on "Webcast: 27 May 08 Presentation ...."
You have to give an email address to connect with the webcast, but once connected the webcast runs very smoothly !!
Z
Sure Russia's increase is not the usual seasonal increase?
Anyway Russia's peak oil I believe is artificial. Mainly because they have been confiscating oil fields operated by Shell and other foreigners.
Hi KiwBear,
How are you going?
Russia is going flat out and will be hard pressed to maintain production let alone increase it to 12 million bbls per day ( if that's what you mean ...because they sure as hell wont be able to increase it by that massive figure you quote. Perhaps you meant 1.2 million bbls )
Cheers
I agree. Apart from the dilution, the number of options that have to be converted is weighing heavily on the SP. Of course, NZO will have all that cash but they only have MoMoho this year, and if that play is dry they will have nothing better to do with the money than retire debt or buy into some farmins.
Good cashflow from Tui should underpin the SP in the short term.
Have started telling all my friends and relatives about latest kupe test results ,tui producing at a rate 3 times predicted , and massive increase in valuation prc ,
Have no doubt oil , gas and coking coal are going to do well in times to come and they cant go wrong with a company like nzo with no net debt and oil on tap . The opportunity to buy at such a discount to the fundamental valuation is likely to be over soon-certainly by the end of june once the options stop knocking the head price down.
Still come july nzo will be cash rich with about an extra $200 million in bank from exercise options plus around $750 ,000 a day net profit from tui building up .Should make it one of the safest and richest companies in nz-as well as having one of the greatest future earning potentials .
Chris,the three kupe testing wells are now complete.We await your NZO official assesment. As this is a public company and we want outside mums and dads in please remember the KISS. That is from my toastmaster days being "Keep it Simple Stupid".
I have spent a bit of time wondering if i should take a coar-se and learn how to read these geological reports but soon realised that this is not a company just for geologists and will continue to undersell itself unless it applies the KISS approach. To me it is little wonder that the Media and brokers shy away from trying to understand or talk about what is going on here.Note no news reports about the two available kupe well results so far. Does anyone wonder why.
I have just read DS presentation and the last report for KUPE is -
Share of 2p Reserves.38 PJgas
165,000 tonnes LPG
2.2 mm bbls light oil.
The new report should at least compare this as it now with what the latest three test results show. I want every high school drop out to be able to understand it.
It is past time NZO came out from under the shadow of geological speak.
I have also just emailed Chris Roberts to make sure he reads my message above.
Anyone else feel it is about time the company started selling itself.We sure wou't unless we set things out in a simpler and easy to understand manner.
Could be worse
NZO - 1 cent
AWE -30 cents ...
Thanks to all who replied to my questions.
An excellent result on K7 testing too, looking forward to a reserves revision from the tests.
looks like a weather window now to shift the rig onto momoho.
hope they can do this over next couple of days - big plus if they can.the kupe test data looks very impressive and should equate to an increase in reserves once fully evalulated in a few months time
m
Digger , NZO have to comply with the listing rules of both the NZX and the ASX. They will have to use a certain level of "technical speak" to ensure their announcments are accurate as well as comlying with the listing rules. They could get into trouble if they start throwing subjective remarks around too freely - they have to stick to the facts.
Personally, I don't want to see company announcments dumbed down to the extent that a high school dropout could understand, I don't understand all the technical data myself but after reading these types of announcments for 5 yrs now ,in my amiture opoinion, the kupe flow rates and presure were good with a decent size (1") choke
the kupe test flows were very impressive - yes very impressive
good things are goingtocome outof this
M
Most of the oilers on the ASX were down heavily today - between 5 and 10% on average. Presumably this was a reaction to the (relatively minor) drop in oil prices overnight. Oil could easily turn back up tonight and then tomorrow the oilers will swing back around. I see that George Soros was reported as saying this week that he thinks oil price will continue to go up, and is unlikely to correct down until both the US and Britain are in recession. I always expected that oil would go to $150 eventually (and beyond) but didn't expect it to happen this quickly!
NZO is very well supported by comparison - appears almost immune to these factors on a day-to-day basis - moving to its own rhythm. In fact it feels to me like there's a lid being kept on it. It might be the option effect, but it almost has the feel of one or more big sellers keeping the price down at around $1.64. One of the reasons the ASX oilers are down so heavily today is because they had such a good run up the last week or two - during which period NZO has been practically stagnant. Sure, it had a great run up before that point, so there may be some exhaustion, but it just feels like it could pop again at any time.
Holding options...
David is not the best speaker in the world (maybe its just the good ol kiwi accent). But... overall a very simplistic view of where nzo are right now.
MOHOho (what ever it is) has the'right address". Sandwhich between oil and gas so diggers comment a few weeks ago of drill and confirm looks spot on. However, just like horse racing there is no certainty.
TUI. Reserve upgrade WILL be annouced in about 4 to 6 weeks. It just keeps getting better.
Kupe: Gas will be adjusted according to inflation and is most likely viable on its own. With condesate its money for jam with pric4es going through the roof. Remember this was viable 3 - 4 years ago. Gas will provide revenue for at least 15 years, oil will be worth at least double the gas prices and exploration (mohoho) will add more than icing on the cake. DS quitely talked this up very large, hence the extra capacity Kupe has given the proven reserves.
Pike.
India will take it over in just as a big way as the IPL Cricket is doing. Academically these guys are brilliant but as dodgey as a vendaloo for dinner. After so long being criticised by me and others, nzo and PRC holders are starting to reap what they sowed.
When mohoho comes in the SP will close in on $2 or more in no time. If not then i am still holing on to a great company that will be paying dividends (unless taken over) on a regular basis.
GO NZO.. Go me and come on board Duncan
The proposed takeover from BG for Origin is interesting especially with Kupe. How this pans out will be interesting.
Personally i see it as nothing more that a big player buying out gullable smaller shareholders who do trealise the true value of their investment.
Whos next? nzo has often been touted and if an offer comes along at @ $2.00 $5.00 or whatever then i would see it as nothing short of the same thing where the big players but out those who just see the quick profit that can be made and not the true value of a company over a persiod of time
Quick calculation of the value to NZOG of the gas and condensate income is around $NZ500,000/d. Lots of assumptions and no costs accounted so only broad brush guestimate but good coin nonetheless
KS8 KS7 KS6 total NZOG share unit value NZOG income
Condensate 3840 6393 6000 16233 2434.95 164.5 400688
Gas mmcf/d 33 41.8 41 115.8 17.37 120921
McDouall Stuart broker report used for gas price estimate $6.63/GJ
17.37*1050 (mmcf converted to GJ)*6.63
Used $US130/0.79 rough exchange rate
I'm sure wiser heads can do better but a basis for discussion
Cheers
Bob
Mike100 while i accept that it has to be set out to cover NZO and ASX requirements it should also be summarised in simple english. Your bit about 5 years reading these reports and now having some understanding is exactally my point. What broker or reporter is going to go into that in that detail. KISS is the best policy to sell the company.
Nita,
I listened to 32 speakers at the Sydney conference. David's presentation and delivery was up there with the best of them.
Digger,
I appreciate your wish for information and we strive to provide whatever information we think will be of interest to the market, as soon as we can.
It is important to understand two key things.
1. These were flow tests. They were not production tests. The main objectives were to confirm that the perforation guns have fired as expected, to partially clean out the wells (full cleanout can take up to several months), to confirm well deliverabilities and to recover hydrocarbon fluid samples in larger quantities for a comprehensive fluid assay. All three tests successfully recovered Hydrocarbons to Surface. To try and extrapolate these results into an estimate of production rates or reserves, is simply impossible.
2. NZOG is not the Operator and we cannot release any information without full JV approval. Origin is doing the technical work. The conclusions, when available, will be checked by our own technical team and then with JV approval, be released publicly.
Origin is currently in a trading halt but we hope that the JV will be able to release a statement summarising the five month drilling campaign by next week.
Only just over four weeks to go before conversion. I expect by the very nature of conversion with people being forced to sell something to convert, the share price will be lower than it is today. This will be a short term drag on the share price. I think that my $1-59 in the competition will be very close to being the winner. My selection was done with TA trends looking forward. I notice PHAEDRUS selected $1-60 which i expect was done with a similar method. There is one good number that nobody has noticed so far which is obvious to me being a lateral Thinker. If i win i will donate the prize to the first person that posts what it is. Macdunk
[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;202415][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;201047]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c 74,UPSIDE_UMOP 159c,
It's not inconceivable that a contributing factor in holding the share price somewhat back is normal "buy early - sell before spud" activity..... hopefully this time the SBS'ers will be proven wrong.... :)
I think P will be delighted that you put him in the same light as your good self.
Offer for you Duncan. To make it interesting i am prepared to offer you odds of 5 to 1 if you get the correct price when options stop trading at the end of the trading day 23rd June. If you are correct, you get to take home some extra loot and be GURU for the day. I look forward to the Dunkin challenge as i know you cannot resist such a thing
NITA, The contest is the last sale price of NZO shares on friday the 27th of june at closing time. JEEZE i am glad there is only one rule in this contest otherwise you might get confused. I dont gamble NITA so your bet will have to be taken up else where. I will say however that my selection will be a lot closer to being right than yours and that you dont have the lateral thinking brain to work out what the good number is that is still available.
Lets see if you can work it out NITA will be interested to see if i under estimated you. Macdunk
From NZO website ... 13 million barrels reached on 27th May :)
Hasn't MINGEATHINAIOOS (entry no 49) had the same thought?
Excellent to see the rate holding in. The water cut is the usual.That is much less than expected but always expect it in the very near future.
We first achieved 11 million on 14/4 so in the next 43 days did another 2 million or most importantly 46,511 per day during this 43 day period. According to my cals TUI has averaged 43,478 since start up on 1st august 07. So in the last 43 days it is out preforming it's long run average.This is probably to do with all 4 wells now in production and with some tech feel for the the operation now that it has been going long enough for experience to start to kick in.[well i certainly got more work out of my digger in the second 43 days than i did in the first 43 ]
Now lets see when will we produce 60 million.Well we need another 47 million and at current rate pumping about 16.5 per year another three years is required. That water cut will kick in somewhere so throw in another year and a few days to be accurate so TUI will pump its 60th million on May 31, 2012
"so TUI will pump its 60th million on May 31, 2012"
Careful. Someone might want to start another competition.
Bought some more options today at 11.8. Now hold few more than I can convert but couldn't resist the lower price.
I guess if you are buying/holding the options now you are expecting to convert them; I"ve sold the ones I need to and plan to convert the balance.
Ok ok already.. $1.62 Happy now? Except that today is not the cut off day. The only things that is important is who will be right when the comp finishes.
The heads will be trading without the options trading for a few days before the competition ends. Question is, how quick will they climb then.
[QUOTE=digger;203074]Excellent to see the rate holding in. The water cut is the usual.That is much less than expected but always expect it in the very near future.
We first achieved 11 million on 14/4 so in the next 43 days did another 2 million or most importantly 46,511 per day during this 43 day period. According to my cals TUI has averaged 43,478 since start up on 1st august 07. So in the last 43 days it is out preforming it's long run average.
12.5% of 46511 = 5814 barrels a day
Tapis = $135.14 =$784873
Nz dollar= .78365 us
therefore Gross income for tui = $1,002,621 per day
production cost= $10 barrel
therefore profit before tax and royalties is $944,000 per day at current rates
With this kind of income I think shareholders need to be compensated for having to raise so much money for options.
Told my wife today we would have no money come 30th june and found her sitting at a desk trying to work out a budget to pay bills -having to sell all my other shares plus cash in every investment and additionally may have to see the bank for a loan-
Should really be opening the champaigne with the success of tui and kupe and prc .
Any answers-a good one imo would be for nzo to announce a special dividend to be paid in july- it has the money -it has good reasons to do so-so why not
Digger would you consider taking up the proposal to nzo if there is enough support on this forum
its good to have chris here clarifying things regarding announcements etc.
but to ask on a forum to pay special dividends and what not, is taking it a little far imo..
i would suggest the best place to take this up is the agm.
if you feel overexposed and need extra cash to help out...you may need to just sell some of your beloved nzo!
for my 2 or 3 cents, i like the current direction. let nzo explore their 'options'. some have said too premature to expand? they have an experienced and competent ceo and an ever growing technical team. im sure they will be able to suss out potential acquistitions, and make decisions in all shareholders best interests...
there are so many possibilities...reduce kupe debt, more drills, acquisitions/mergers...a special dividend maybe even on their cards, who knows?! nzo team have stated they are assembling plans for what happens if options comes in..(i should actually say when..)
but yeah, im a tiny shareholder, i guess its easier for me to move my money around if i dont like what i see happening....
Yesterday when I posted (3993):
Could be worse
NZO minus 1 cent
AWE minus 30 cents ...
AWE had closed down 6% on the ASX while NZO stayed about the same.
Anubis posted (3998):
Most of the oilers on the ASX were down heavily today - between 5 and 10% on average. Presumably this was a reaction to the (relatively minor) drop in oil prices overnight. Oil could easily turn back up tonight and then tomorrow the oilers will swing back around.
NZO is very well supported by comparison – appears almost immune to these factors on a day-to-day basis – moving to its own rhythm. In fact it feels to me like there’s a lid being kept on it. It might be the option effect, but it almost has the feel of one or more big sellers keeping the price down at around $1.64.
One of the reasons the ASX oilers are down so heavily today is because they had such a good run up the last week or two – during which period NZO has been practically stagnant. Sure, it had a great run up before that point, so there may be some exhaustion, but it just feels like it could pop again at any time.
Well Anubis was right the ASX Energy indices up 5.2% today and AWE was up 27 cents or 6%
Anubis also posted:
If Anubis is right on the big seler/s as well then once the big seller/s are done and the rights matter is all over rover then the SP can be expected to ...
Yesterday when I posted (3993):
Could be worse
NZO minus 1 cent
AWE minus 30 cents ...
AWE had closed down 6% on the ASX while NZO stayed about the same.
Anubis posted (3998):
Most of the oilers on the ASX were down heavily today - between 5 and 10% on average. Presumably this was a reaction to the (relatively minor) drop in oil prices overnight. Oil could easily turn back up tonight and then tomorrow the oilers will swing back around.
NZO is very well supported by comparison – appears almost immune to these factors on a day-to-day basis – moving to its own rhythm. In fact it feels to me like there’s a lid being kept on it. It might be the option effect, but it almost has the feel of one or more big sellers keeping the price down at around $1.64.
One of the reasons the ASX oilers are down so heavily today is because they had such a good run up the last week or two – during which period NZO has been practically stagnant. Sure, it had a great run up before that point, so there may be some exhaustion, but it just feels like it could pop again at any time.
Well Anubis was right the ASX Energy indices up 5.2% today and AWE was up 27 cents or 6%
If Anubis is right on the big seller/s as well then once the big seller/s are done and the rights matter is all over rover then the SP can be expected to ...
[quote=fish;203107]:eek:
I agree with you Fish. It seems as if NZO think that they have done enough to get the options "over the line". They have only barely indicated to us that they might have done enough.
7pc over the line is not a pass when interest rates are 10pc pa. What will they do with all this money - on top of all the cash that they have?
They could be heading for a "fail" in their main task which was to convert the options. The latest presentation doesn't indicate how they will get up. Chris was only expecting a portion of them too covert - very negative - bordering on a loser mentality - too kiwi for words. I bet an Australian in a similar situation would nail it to the mast big time and pronounce how great we are.
IMO a little more is required, be it a Kupe resource upgrade ( Origin must be keen to give this full wraps under takeover and all) or Tui upgrade (AWE are busy taking-over now) or some numbers supporting a dividend from their huge cash flow, such as Fish suggests...
The "reminder" just says have a chat to the bank manager in case - there is not a compelling argument at (160cps), yet DS. Late by a couple of weeks is simply not good enough.:(
I take it you cant work out the missing number then NITA?. One thing about traders that that investors dont have is a logical brain that can work out the not so obvious from every angle. One simple rule and a few numbers and its beyond you.
HAVANOTHERGOYAMUG. Macdunk
Does anyone still care?!
[QUOTE=upside_umop;203115]its good to have chris here clarifying things regarding announcements etc.
but to ask on a forum to pay special dividends and what not, is taking it a little far imo..
i would suggest the best place to take this up is the agm.
if you feel overexposed and need extra cash to help out...you may need to just sell some of your beloved nzo!
Agree largely with your post-I do like the direction nzo is going-but i think leaving such a big issue until the agm is leaving things a little late . It doesnt take an agm to decide about dividends-look how the april divi came out of the blue.
We are in a very unusual situation-most of us were not expecting the options to be in the money until a couple of months or less ago . If one doesnt convert you now allow dilution of your shareholding . Each day there are about 5 million options for sale and few buyers . It is likely a lot of loyal long term shareholders are going to lose out to short term traders and speculaters because the large number of options on the market will depress the market until end june.
Personally i will be able to raise the money to convert all the options .I will never sell a share such as nzo so far below what I consider its fundamental value . It is likely a lot of mums and dads small shareholders will not be in such a position .
We do have a problem-i feel it needs attention -a forum like this allows free and open discussion .I welcome all views and all suggstions .
By the way what do you think of my calculation that gross revenue is now possibly over 1 million dollars a day -a p/e ration of 1 to 1 !
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Heres a quote from 2004 when NZOG sold 4% of Kupe to Mitsui
http://www.crownminerals.govt.nz/cms...rchterm=origin
NZOG said the purchase by Mitsui of a 4% Kupe interest would leave NZOG with an equity of 15% in the field. The sale contained a provision, subject to certain conditions, for a repurchase of 2.5%.
So now with possibly just under $200 million coming from options conversion, is there a possibility to take up this 2.5% repurchase agreement. Does anyone know the conditions?
Fish - I can see just over 2 mil OD s for sale in the depth has it built up to 5 mil some days?
Flip side of course is a smart investor is not hoping to make a 10% gain or more every day. Many traders are gamblers which is just like gambling on futures and forex trading.. that simple.
Here in Malaysia we are now having students (with no knowledge any money markets) trying to convince investors into making money on forex......next
NITA, Dont tell me you cant work it out. Very simple logical number that looks like being right in the money. Have a good think about it i dont want to place you in the brain dead category. Macdunk
Thanks Fish - thats a lot of ODS!
I think that is quite misleading and wrong. P/e is not calculated on revenue - expenses, royalties, tax and amortisation need to be taken into account. And $366M with a market cap of $650M gives 1.8, not 1.
First half earnings were $41M. Some very rough estimates for the rest of the year - Q3 income was $58M, implies earnings ~$40M. Q4 income perhaps $68M, implies earnings ~$45M (less if Momoho cost falls in Q4).
So we have annual earnings ~$126M, market cap ~(400 x 1.62) = $650M
Therefore p/e for the year ~5.1 (would have been ~3.3 without NZOOD)
If you add the increase in PRC valuation (say $70M), underlying earnings leap to ~$196M, p/e ~3.3 (~2.1 pre NZOOD).
These are not accurate figures, but a lot closer to reality than your suggested p/e of 1.
The chart is fairly self explanatory. There is an old saying that markets form “V” bottoms and rounded tops. If that old saying holds true, then the rounded top that started to form could be the beginning of a technically overdue correction.
The issue with the crude market is that outside forces (political, geo-political, etc.) can have drastic effects. So anyone looking to time the top needs patience, small position size and wide stops.
Oil based products are only one part of the broader commodities picture that has been under extreme inflationary pressure recently. And as long as we’re all filling up the gas tank and heading into a national election both here and in the US, energy costs will continue to be a hot topic.
[QUOTE=Unicorn;203174]I think that is quite misleading and wrong. P/e is not calculated on revenue - expenses, royalties, tax and amortisation need to be taken into account. And $366M with a market cap of $650M gives 1.8, not 1.
Unicorn-Many thanks for that correction -I have every confidence that you are technically correct using the current financial year . Your advice is always much appreciated
I was really using just the current -ie past 1 month profits and didnt take into account tax or whether there were still tax credits available .I believe only a small % options have currently been exercised. However assuming they are all exercised by 30th june this will give nzo an extra boost of working capital and increased returns-if only interest initially. We havnt also taken into account interest earned on the current massive daily profits on the sale of tui oil
[QUOTE=KiwiBear;203178]The chart is fairly self explanatory.
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market...id=markets_oil
The real current chart in contrast indicates a strong upward direction
The Quandry is though NZ Oil'n gas has formed a Pennant or symmetrical triangle with decreasing volume - either a postive or negative breakout is eminent only a price breakout will show the way of the next trend! It could also be a head and shoulder pattern!
Which is a warning of a downtrend
Pennant: A continuation chart pattern that is simliar to the flag, except that it is more horizontal and resembles a small symmetrical triangle. Like the flag, the pennant usually lasts from one to three weeks and is typically followed by a resumption of the prior trend
While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout.
Breakout Direction: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred. Sound obvious enough, but attempting to guess the direction of the breakout can be dangerous. Even though a continuation pattern is supposed to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case.
Breakout Confirmation: For a break to be considered valid, it should be on a closing basis. Some traders apply a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume, especially on upside breakouts.
Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout.
Price Target: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.
Edwards and Magee suggest that roughly 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. The reversal patterns can be especially difficult to analyze and often have false breakouts. Even so, we should not anticipate the direction of the breakout, but rather wait for it to happen. Further analysis should be applied to the breakout by looking for gaps, accelerated price movements, and volume for confirmation. Confirmation is especially important for upside breakouts.
Hope this helps those who hold heeps of this stock - I wish I had the money to have had earlier, but I'm long cashed up, and paid for my pedal powered Holiday in France end of next month.
Oil and gas producer Australian Worldwide Exploration is gearing up to boost reserves at its Tui oilfield off the coast of New Zealand to more than 50 million barrels next month, doubling the reserves the company said was there when the project was sanctioned
Sure is Bermuda, about to erupt :D
From the Australian today:
AWE's Tui oilfield to doubles its reserves
Matt Chambers | May 30, 2008
OIL and gas producer Australian Worldwide Exploration is gearing up to boost reserves at its Tui oilfield off the coast of New Zealand to more than 50 million barrels next month, doubling the reserves the company said was there when the project was sanctioned.
Sydney-based AWE is reviewing how much it can get out of the profitable Tui field and is planning to announce new reserves there in mid-June.
It is understood the company could boost reserves to 55 million barrels at the site, which started production in July last year. Original reserves stood at 26.8 million barrels.
Last week was an eventful one for the field, where extension of the charter of the floating production ship Umuroa by five years enabled the company to boost Tui reserves to 47 million barrels from a previous figure of 41.7 million barrels announced in November.
That, along with oil prices marching relentlessly higher, pushed shares up 10 per cent to a record close of $4.55 last week.
The company, which owns 42.5 per cent of Tui and is the operator, was also charged by Maritime New Zealand for an oil spill from the Umuroa in October, for which it faces a fine of up to $200,000. AWE said it would pay any penalties.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...85-643,00.html
Was in the ASB Morning Brief (should sign up, its a good summary of the day's events)
Is this as good as an official reserves upgrade or what ??
It looks like a leak to the mate in the Press out of AWE.