The new Silk Railroad - no stops in Russia
The Economist
6th September
Two new railway lines could transform Central AsiaChina, not Russia, stands to benefit
https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/...m-central-asia
Printable View
The new Silk Railroad - no stops in Russia
The Economist
6th September
Two new railway lines could transform Central AsiaChina, not Russia, stands to benefit
https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/...m-central-asia
very global GTM
keep wanting to write GMT....
Yes and no ...
First - your statements do not disagree with what I said. I think they are both correct (apart from - I think - your last sentence in your last paragraph).
What you forget (or omitted) is that it was the current strongman Erdogan who made it impossible for Turkey to join the EU. You might not be aware that the European Unions does have some minimum standards for any new member to join, including a democratically elected government, an independent justice system, a free press, guarantee of human rights. The strongman Erdogan made sure that Turkey is these days non compliant with any of these requirements.
Turkey is these days run by a corrupt dictator, not acceptable for the EU. This is the only reason he needs to associate with like minded crooks who happen to be mainly in the East (though Belarus is more to their West, and Moscow just North of them :p );
If Turkey wants to join Europe, they first need to get rid of the crook at the top and return to a democratic system.
While I accept that the joining process was perhaps for Turkey sometimes painful (not just from a Turkish perspective, may I say) ... there is only one person responsible for stopping it in its tracks: Erdogan.
Could china be next to see unrest ...
Buses crashes late at night transporting moving residents from covid zones ... social media lights up...
one wag says
"we are all on the bus we just havnt crashed yet"
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/18/a...ntl/index.html
450 million views to find information ...
Remember that foreign policy also has internal political drivers:
Indian government accused of ceding land in Himalayas to China
Locals claim ‘buffer zones’ have been established in areas previously under Indian control
The Guardian 19 September 2022
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-land-to-china
Subtle shift in tone, testing the waters ?
Analysis: Biden hints at risky policy shift on Taiwan independence
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ce-2022-09-19/
The US is awake after all...
Blinken to host 'Blue Pacific' event amid competition with China
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ay-2022-09-19/
"We are going to step up our game with respect to supporting a variety of initiatives across the Pacific that will positively affect the Solomons as well," he said. "But we've also been clear about what our concerns are and we would not want to see ... a capacity for long-range power projection."
Say it once, it's a gaffe, say it twice, it's policy...
Joe Biden again says US forces would defend Taiwan from Chinese attack
White House confirms US policy has not changed after president’s remarks on 60 Minutes show
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...china-attacked
Is Vladimir Putin happy to risk nuclear war to avoid admitting defeat?
Andrew Roth in Moscow
Russian leader’s escalatory threat to annex parts of Ukraine in effort to halt counteroffensive is fraught with risk
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...war-annexation
Putin’s Russian Empire is collapsing like its Soviet predecessor
Atlantic Council
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...M6gu-tDYIpvE1w
Bloomberg's version of events...
The potential for a major escalation in Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine is being telegraphed by a rush to hold what NATO and Kyiv officials call sham referendums in occupied areas of the east and south. As Putin’s forces have been pushed back, aides have urged him to claim parts of Ukraine as Russian territory, like he did with Crimea.
Announcements of votes in the coming days were made just as measures unveiled in Moscow point to a potential mass mobilization that could follow.
Experts warn that Putin may label future efforts by Ukraine to recapture annexed territory as war on Russia itself, helping boost Russian public support for a call-up to supplement his battered forces. It would also free him, under Russia’s own rules, to consider the use of nuclear weapons, a level of brinkmanship that could lead to negotiations—or confrontation.
For now, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at the United Nations General Assembly in New York that “such sham votes, referendums, do not have any legitimacy, and therefore they do not change the nature of the conflict.” NATO and its partner countries “have to support Ukraine for as long as it takes, because the alternative is much more dangerous for all of us.
As for using weapons of mass destruction, US President Joe Biden warned of a “consequential” response should Putin take such a grave step. —David E. Rovella
BB Snippets...
Russian redirect | Russia is likely to ship more fuel to Asia and the Middle East as Europe tightens sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine. With the European Union preparing to ban most Russian crude imports starting Dec. 5, followed by a prohibition on oil products from February, Russian sellers are using new tactics to redirect energy flows that may spur competition and drive prices lower.
Rekindling relations | Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. sees a “further strengthening” of political and economic ties with the US, marking his strongest statements yet on the longstanding alliance undermined by his predecessor. His stance is in marked contrast to that of former leader Rodrigo Duterte, who went to China in the early days of his presidency and announced a “separation” from Washington.
Even young chinese now they are going back to Moa...but now europe knows it too.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/20/euro...sed-china.html
NZ an irrelevancy - non-existent...
Fast Track Aussie Nuclear Submarine Development, Says MP on AUKUS Anniversary
https://news.usni.org/2022/09/16/fast-track-aussie-nuclear-submarine-development-says-mp-on-aukus-anniversary?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=7a59b1765 5&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89
"The agreement can also serve as a model for working with other allies, like Japan and South Korea, and partners like India in defense technology transfers, the panelists said."
European businesses are rethinking their plans for a ‘closed’ China
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/20/euro...sed-china.html
“I’ve been here on and off 40 years and I’ve never seen anything like this, where all of a sudden, ideological decision-making is more important than economic decision-making,” Wuttke said. “And maybe that’s also amplified by voices from the outside, America[n] sanctions, America cutting off China, so I can understand partly why self-reliance is so high on the agenda.”
Preparations begin...un-announced by our media...
China-Pacific tensions: US, UK join NZ and allies in Fijian military exercise
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/china-...POIMWPKZFOREI/
Russia-Ukraine war live: Putin announces ‘partial mobilisation’ of Russia and calls up military reserves
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/21/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-blinken-calls-moscows-referendum-attempts-a-sham-zelenskiy-to-speak-at-un?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-632aab078f089a550b8a96cc#block-632aab078f089a550b8a96cc
Timeline
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...to-speak-at-un
Yes and NATO has issues threats of Nuclear war...
right ...
suppose he never heard what China and India just told him....
and on it goes.
well there goes european trips for the next few years...
Tourism to NZ should pick up as a nuclear shelter...
What chance is there of a large percentage of Russian war verterans telling him to stick it.
No sure but can you jail that number of reserves .. or is it the start of the purges ... are the people are going to get another stalin..
UK defence secretary: Putin's partial mobilisation 'an admission invasion is failing'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...089a550b8a979c
You would think markets would go into a spin...
look like they are deserting from russia already... plane tickey sales are up and the stock market are down..
only 300 thousand are in the firing line and will be called only as needed...
oopp
Hey we lost another nnnn we need more ..
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-putin.../32044313.html
Seem to remember back in april some threat that if anyone dare send ukraine any help bad things will happen.....
well turkey still sending drones and so is everyone else..
Russia / Ukraine Summary & Catch-Up
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...08f4c4bf5d7869
World leaders react to Vladimir Putin's latest chilling speech on Ukraine conflict
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/wor...BBIJ3AEIR6XMM/
Why the world is so worried about Russia's 'tactical' nuclear weapons
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe...uclear-weapons
4m ago23.01
In a wide-ranging and impassioned televised speech at the UN on Wednesday, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on the international community to adopt a 5-point formula to achieve peace and security.
Zelenskiy, who addressed the General Assembly in a pre-recorded video, laid out a “formula for peace” that includes the following measures:
1) Punishment for crimes of aggression including sanctions and the stripping away of veto rights
2) Protection of life as he cited the mass graves of tortured bodies found in Bucha and Izium
3) Restoration of security and territorial integrity, noting that Russia’s attempts at targeting nuclear facilities in Ukraine is going to impact “all of you…because none of you will find a vaccine against radiation sickness”
4) Security and safety guarantees
5) Determination for Ukraine to continue defending itself against Russian aggression
Zelenskiy concluded his speech by calling out the the countries that voted alongside Russia to oppose Ukraine’s request to deliver a remote address as traditional UN procedures only allow in-person participants to deliver addresses.
101 countries voted in favor of the televised address while 19 abstained.
Referring to the possibility of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, Zelenskiy said, “As for the talks between Ukraine and Russia, probably you have heard different words from Russia about the talks, as if they were ready for them… They talk about the talks but announce military mobilization. They talk about the talks but announce psuedo-referendums.”
In contrast, Zelenskiy reaffirmed that Ukraine is prepared for peace talks but only for “true, honest, fair peace.”
2m ago23.07
Summary
It’s slightly past 1am in Kyiv. Here’s where things stand:
- In a wide-ranging and impassioned televised speech at the UN on Wednesday, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on the international community to adopt a 5-point formula to achieve peace and security. The five points include punishment for crimes of aggression, protection of life, restoration of security and territorial integrity, security guarantees and determination of Ukraine to continue defending itself.
- Russia has released some of the Ukrainian fighters it took prisoner after a protracted battle for the port city of Mariupol earlier this year, public broadcaster Suspline said on Wednesday.
- The commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said on Wednesday that no statement from Russia’s leaders will deter Ukrainians’ willingness to defend their country. “Hundreds of thousands of men and women protect their native land, their homes, their children, and the future of Ukraine,” the commander, Valery Zaluzhnyi, wrote in a statement on Facebook.
- The Security Service of Ukraine has released a recording of an intercepted call by a Russian soldier in which he appears to complain about the setbacks faced by Russian troops in recent months. “Locals hate us here. Ours rape local women,” the soldier appeared to say into the phone, adding that there is little to no chance of him returning home anytime soon.
- Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Russian-occupied Melitipol, in Ukraine has urged local men to evacuate the city amid mobilization orders from Russia, the Kyiv Independent reports.
- Over 1,000 protestors have been arrested in anti-mobilization rallies that are taking place throughout Russia. According to OVD-Info, more than 1,178 people have been detained in 38 cities across Russia, with the majority of the detainees being in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
- Finland said Wednesday it is working on a federal strategy to “limit or completely prevent” tourism from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. “This national solution may include new legislation, which would be adopted very quickly,” foreign minister Pekka Haavisto told a press conference.
Putin calls up reserves for a bloody Ukrainian winter
Crucial announcement acknowledges war effort to date has been undermanned and augurs more brutal battles ahead
https://asiatimes.com/2022/09/putin-...ainian-winter/
Putin is not the first despot getting stuck with his troops in the Ukrainian / Russian winter. But Putin is dumber. Having to fight during winter in this environment with bad prepared, hardly trained, highly unmotivated and ill equipped soldiers against soldiers fighting for their homeland and their families is suicide.
Hitler used the same strategy to destroy his troops and lose the war, and so did Napoleon.
Putin just following the example of these historical monsters ...
Is this an opportunity for the Chinese leader to stand up and become a real stateman?
Xi?
I guess it depends how you define a "real stateman"
Xi was quite happy to support Putin's war and he is clearly not worried about killing and suppressing innocent people. His democratic credentials are laughable. suppressing freedom of speech and incarcerating anybody disagreeing with his views. Currently though trying to climb on the fence related to Putin's atrocities given that Putin's war is bad for China's business. It appears Western investments in China are currently dropping. This makes his plans for China to rule the world somewhat more aspirational. He needs Western Know How and money to conquer us.
If this stance (no respect for human rights, no respect for foreign rights and international law, giving China all rights over any other people just by drawing a line on a map, but ready to restrain his support for a fellow loser to further his agenda) makes a state(s)man, than yeah, maybe ...
According to the Oxford dictionary is a statesman a "a skilled, experienced, and respected political leader or figure."
So lets see - Trump is an absolute moron, but he is still respected by mindless crowds rallying around him. He is as well experienced to lie and skilled to trash anybody attacking him. Trump clearly must be a statesman.
Xi is a dictator without any democratic credentials. Not sure whether his henchmen respect him, but sure, there are many who fear him, and that for good reason. Notice the difference?
Biden is respected by many, and he is clearly skilled and experienced as statesman. He gave Trump in many respects master lessons, but sure - he is only human and made as well mistakes. Even statesman make mistakes :) ;
Putting Xi over Biden in any positive discipline can only be your idea of making a very sick joke.
So you consider Trump to be a statesman because of mindless adoring crowds in the US but a different standard applies to Xi because he is Chinese?
You obviously have no idea that Xi is highly respected and highly regarded by the China people. China stands tall today because of him and if you bother to canvas the opinions of the Chinese, you will know that as a fact.
That’s what matters for a nation which was bullied and forced to be second rate to Western countries and Japan for centuries.
People like you & the US military & weapons industry want to continue China to be subservient to Western interests. Dreams are free as they say.
Trump is respected because of mindless crowd? Well, good on him and good on you! LOL!
Biden is a barely coherent bumbling idiot - his withdrawal from Afghanistan is testimony to that fact. You are free to respect him and good on you.
Keep swallowing the weapons and military industry spin - you seem to enjoy their spit.
Absolutely incredible how you can ignore Xi's genocide and the iron fist he uses against anybody disagreeing. Only other monsters would respect him. Do you?
Your judgement is so far off any scale that its hard to comment. Either your family is threatened by Xi's henchmen .. which would sort of excuse the disturbing nonsense and the personal offenses you are spreading - or your judgement is deeply disturbed for other reasons.
If its the first - I feel sorry for you and good luck.
If its the second - I feel sorry for you and please seek professional help.
You do not have to feel sorry for me or anyone who does not buy into the US/Western war mongering narrative.
Good on you to swallow the narrative but please, spare us your regurgitation of the propaganda of the war mongers.
Astounding at this day and age that anyone with any principle, moral or decency would assert that Trump is a statesman - that is the ultimate insult to your own intelligence but you obviously are not even aware of it!
Putin in all his speeches hasn't said how he is going to arm,feed or clothe these 300k new troops,on top of that he never mentions incoming nuclear bombs.
Just because the people of Tibet are the most peaceful and peace loving so no one bothers about their aspirations and dreams .
This world only respects power and strength ...not truth and peace !!
We truly are going thru difficult times for human race ...sadly we have progressed only in technology and gone downwards in human values
Thousands of civilians killed by US drone strikes.
https://www.dw.com/en/us-drone-strik...ort/a-60184096
The US Air Force thinks about the future. . . and comes up with Complex Behaviors from Simple Machines
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Por...df?source=GovD
At least the freedom of speech , expression and press lets us know what all went wrong ...U got this info thanks to that freedom ....where as press censorship and internet censorship etc does not even let we the people know whats going on in many areas of a big country ...not knowing does not mean nothing happening . Why the need for such controls ? Only increases suspicions of wrong doing !!
Who is the West? It's a fake news russian term.
If it means the 40+ democracies then.. which other side would you rather be on?
Flights out of russia sold out and hiked up to x9 in price.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...artial-call-up
We know what the next step is.. full soviet conscription like the good old days.
Putin’s New Cannon Fodder Won’t Win the Ukraine War
It will take months before Russia’s reserve troops can be brought into battle, where they will likely perform even worse than the frontline forces.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...wall#xj4y7vzkg
It appears the UKE soldiers are making it up as they go....
Thats called something... and if its true its dangerous for the other side...
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-izyu.../32044921.html
Imagine the Ugly Bear thinks the UKE are following orders!!!!
They dont need them !!! Now that is dangerous and a winning formula..
Right out of Pattons play book...
What the US expects of Australia (and New Zealand) in the South Pacific
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/what-the-us-expects-of-australia-in-the-south-pacific/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly%20The%20Stra tegist&utm_content=Weekly%20The%20Strategist+CID_0 741b4204171327594c8a1b2c8f39f84&utm_source=Campaig nMonitor&utm_term=What%20the%20US%20expects%20of%2 0Australia%20in%20the%20South%20Pacific
(except New Zealand has dropped the ball in recent decades)...
America exists to create wars and conflicts.
No wars/conflicts or enemies = no weapons sale.
https://youtu.be/O0Qt9odlE8k
Young guys fleeing Ugly Bear country at borders in long lines of cars...
https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/2...-mobilisation/
Follow the money. . . Fat Leonard busted in Venezuela en route to Russia.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...-navy-bribery/
Biden, the statesman according to BlackPeter.
A increasingly senile and confused statesman - the best the USA can produce after the other statesman, Trump. LOL.
Watch the video if you want to see the leader of the ‘free’ world bumbled his way from the stage.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ing-stage.html
‘Joe Biden, 79, faced yet another public embarrassment Wednesday evening when he appeared to get lost while walking off stage following his remarks at the Global Fund Conference.’
Navy officers so easily bought with prostitutes, gifts, cigars, wine, meals and of course, money.
US$35m?
Like a grain of sand in Northland’s 90 mile beach of the type & amount of bribes and payments involved in US arms sales and military spend.
The minnows get caught while the big sharks get away scot free.
Whoops china breaks away from Russia slightly...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqtaHY4ASfc
Not even they like being shacked to a ruined country (unless they can get some cheap assets from it).
You are clearly an interesting "character".
Amazing that somebody who constantly warns against the spin of western media seems to be absolutely dumb folded by the spin of the Chinese Communist party.
Obviously - your frequent feral attacks against democratically elected politicians (like e.g. Jacinda Adern) stand in strange contrast to your praise of a Chinese strongman without any democratic legitimacy who is responsible for breaking international treaties (e.g. re Hongkong), who is responsible for locking up hundreds of thousands Chinese people just for disagreeing with him, who muted any free press in his country and who is responsible for locking up and torturing millions of people in Xinjang province in concentration camps.
You seem to be a staunch supporter of the monster who is for China what Putin is for Russia or what Hitler used to do be for Germany.
Disgusting.
Actually, they mentioned incoming nuclear bombs. I understand that Lavrov made up a western threat of attacking Russia with nuclear bombs. Apparently this is the only reason Russia has to defend itself. The poor Russians attacked their neighbour, stole their territory, raped their women and killed plenty of them, and now they are lying about somebody might attack them.
Lovely people.
And you are for describing Trump and Biden as statesmen.
You are also for USA = War & Conflict & Enemies = Weapons sale
How about the thousands of brown civilians slaughtered by US drones?
And did I praise Xi as you insinuate? I pointed out that by your measure, he is more of a statesman than Trump or Biden. You are not going to get away with using deflection and diversion to debate with me, BP.
Stick to your assertions about why you think Trump is more of a statesman than Xi.
Let me help you - you believe Trump is a statesman because he is swamped by brain dead morons when he rants and raves at rallies. I asserted that by that standard, Xi is easily a statesman as he is respected by the China people.
Place missile defence back in Poland - it was a mistake by obama to remove it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...plex_in_Poland
Surround the place with these systems until russia is a democracy.
An energy crisis and geopolitics are creating a new-look Gulf
It will be richer, more powerful—and more volatile
https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...-new-look-gulf
Analysis
Patience with Putin may be ebbing among friendlier countries
Patrick Wintour in New York
Turkey, India and China respond cooly to news of planned referendums in Ukrainian regions occupied by Russia
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...lier-countries
Putin isn't threatening anybody with nuclear weapons, claims Russian ministerMoscow is not threatening anybody with nuclear weapons, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has said.
Open confrontation with the United States and NATO was not in Russia's interests, Russian state news agencies reported him saying.
The referendum process is underway.
The irony is Putin would never allow one inside russia without the organisers having an accident.
Getting properly back to business, now need to rebuild the numbers, fast...
NZ joins Pacific allies in US-led military exercise
https://www.stuff.co.nz/pou-tiaki/12...itary-exercise
Regional stepping up with US backing, Mahuta visible again...
Regionalism should be the focus, Mahuta tells Pacific partners
https://www.stuff.co.nz/pou-tiaki/12...cific-partners
Bit of backbone stiffening...
War in the Taiwan Strait would be 'disastrous' for NZ
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/3006...astrous-for-nz
Hmm ... I guess nobody can foresee the future and neither how a certain imaginable conflict might run. Any of these specialists predicting Russia attacking Ukraine one year ago? No, they had no clue.
Any of these specialists predicting after Russia's attack that this will turn into a drawn out war? No, every "specialist" assumed that Russia will control Ukraine in a matter of days.
Anybody predicting a year ago that Putin will hold the Western world at its b*lls by closing the gas supply to Europe? Nobody predicted that.
Same thing with Taiwan. Nobody can predict whether there will be war ... and if there is a war nobody can predict how it will go and what it would mean for us.
One thing however we should learn from Putin's war against Ukraine is that it is always a bad idea to put crooks, thieves and murderers into a position to blackmail us, because this is exactly what they are going to do ... no matter whether we talk Putin's Russia trying to blackmail Europe or whether it is Xi's China which can blackmail us given our high economical dependency on the Chinese market.
Unfortunately - our politicians (of all colours) have been as unwise in opening the Chinese market for us and allowing us to become addicted to it as the German politicians have been who allowed the German industry to get addicted to cheap Russian gas.
I guess the author is right to point out our economical dependence on China. The only time still better than today to reduce this dependency would be in the past.
Buy less (or ideally no) Chinese and don't make yourself dependant of the Chinese market.
The vast majority of consumer & commercial electronic equipment is assembled or manufactured in China. We are intrinsically linked in the global supply chain, and completely decoupling will be extraordinarily difficult.
If we decouple and therefore have little to no trade links, will that have any effect on the likelihood of conflict? There are numerous arguments on both sides of this question. Perhaps becoming less dependent on any one country will be the best answer, but not a complete severing of ties.
Luke Malpass: What now for the war in Ukraine, and why the West should worry
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...t-should-worry
'Dead man walking': Putin's war becoming an all-or-nothing conflict for the Russian ruler
Thomas Manch
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...-russian-ruler
US President Joe Biden sends secret nuclear strike warning to Russia's Vladimir Putin
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe...vladimir-putin
Russia-Ukraine war: 'Playtime is over'- Troop clip that spells big trouble for Putin
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/rus...ZGPG3ZXXCCMTU/
China says US sending ‘dangerous signals’ on Taiwan
Comments from Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi come after meeting with US secretary of state Antony Blinken on sidelines of UN general assembly
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nals-on-taiwan
Uh Ohhh...why are we even discussing this ?
China blockade would be act of war, Taiwan would not surrender, official says
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ys-2022-09-23/
Davexl - I tell you - this is the most nervous I've felt re geopolitical risk in quite some time
Putin for whatever reason is backing himself into a corner saying "I am not bluffing" which takes away his flexibility as things develop. I hope and presume he is continuing his bravado to shake off nationalist criticism, but losing operational flexibility is never a good thing, particularly when he is on the backfoot. I worry the next few weeks could actually be the most dangerous of the war. The sham referendum and annexation of occupied territories, which if attacked according to putin gives him the ability to respond with tactical nukes. Conscripted soldiers will take a few months before they are on the ground in earnest meanwhile Ukrainian troops have the momentum and no doubt will push for as much territorial gain before that happens. That means Uke troops will soon be rolling over newly annexed "russian" territory which Putin is now claiming he may respond with tactical nukes. Meanwhile I've been reading in the washingtonpost senior military officials now putting out there on the range of responses the United States may undertake in response to a nuclear strike by russia, and some of those include a direct (conventional) american attack on the russian base that undertakes the release of nuclear weapons.
Forget the OCR rising to 4% (or gasp 4.75% per the ANZ) - if russia releases one single nuclear weapon, a tidal wave of destruction across all asset classes will unfold, let alone with what happens next.
Fingers, toes & everything else crossed calmer heads prevail.
China may now have air superiority over US in Pacific
Ageing and fewer US fighters flown by undertrained pilots have likely already fallen behind China’s rapid fleet expansion
https://asiatimes.com/2022/09/china-...us-in-pacific/
Japan in urgent search of new strategic balance
As the security environment becomes more fraught, Tokyo needs to spend much more to reform its doctrine, capability and operations
https://asiatimes.com/2022/09/japan-...tegic-balance/
Pointed at China, US spreads THAAD all around Guam
US military readies new missile configuration in island territory that could become the Pearl Harbor of 21st century in a conflict with China
https://asiatimes.com/2022/09/pointe...l-around-guam/
Just relax ... stock markets didn't react that badly to WW II - it only was a good idea not to keep shares of the loosing side.
Now - I guess we all know who will lose this war if Putin asks for it ... i.e. if you keep your portfolio free of Russians shares (check these emerging countries EFT's, just to be sure) ... you should be fine.
I don't believe that for one second.
If there is one thing the Ukrainian Russian war has shown us is how dramatically superior western arms are to Russian and Chinese weapons.
As little as 20 HIMARS, a couple thousand shoulder launched missiles, and HARM anti radiation missiles have paralyzed one of the worlds most advanced and battle tested militaries, Russia. That can leave no doubt russia would be decimated by nato in a conventional war, which is probably why russia has 10x more tactical nuclear warheads than the united states does.
Russian military tech is supposed to be a bit more advanced and robust than china's in most but not all areas (china apparently have better anti ship ballistic missiles). And more importantly Russia is battle tested, whereas China is not. Russia runs a centralised military command, but I dont know anything about how China operate.
American 4th generation fighters (f16, FY15 et al) probably far superior to 5th gen Russian/Chinese warplanes, despite their "stealth". American 5th gen are peerless and they are already working on 6th gen, and their new raider stealth bomber will be unveiled this December.
a lot of it comes down to stomach for losses and willingness to achieve goals even if resulting in collateral damage / atrocities. I'd say china and russia have that up on their side. But while america's tolerance for troop loses in ridiculous wars in the middle east were low, should 1 aircraft carrier be hit or lost, American tolerance for total war will go back right to where in was in ww2.
eitherway - between what is happen with russia right now in europe, and what could happen with china anytime for the foreseeable future - it doesnt appear the market has priced in an appropriate level of risk premium to compensate
It sounds like you should watch the Cold War TV Warsaw Pact versus NATO nuclear war fictional programmes I remember from back in the day - The Day After (USA) and Threads (UK)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0090163/
Most of the high tech components for all UGly Bear stuff comes from Western suppliers..
Thales ect all western country kept supplying some stuff even after 2014.. germany was business as usual.
UKE troops not having it all there own way though...
Bakhmut is one such place where the UKE cant push them back without an increase in western tech as the ugly bear is throwing a lot at it...
The MOB plan could end up being a box ticketing excercise... there one million ready to go somewhere... tick box..
LOL I did last week that probably explains my heightened sense of paranoia
By Dawns Early Light (full movie available for free on youtube) a great one, as is Countdown to Looking Glass (same, free on youtube). both are less well known than the day after, but I reckon better
Agree wholeheartedly sadly - Putin is very much the cornered Rat at this point, even his 'friends' acknowledge it with cautioning tones.
I wish we had a better handle on his mental state as if he is not bluffing - we live in incredibly dangerous times...
A man whose articles are well worth a read is James Stavridis ex NATO Supreme Commander (Retired) (in Bloomberg). He seems to have a handle on the risks of nuclear usage - but once again we don't know Putin's mental state, with those who surround him or anyone much else...
Looks like even the followers of the UGlY Bear arnt following the play book. Maybe China and India not following along at the UN is having a small effect and popular unrest.
Disparate mobilization processes across different regions may exacerbate social tensions in Russia already raised by perceived inequalities in the creation of volunteer battalions. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov stated in a live TV broadcast that the Republic of Chechnya will not conduct mobilization because the Republic has already exceeded an unspecified force generation plan by 254 percent.[13] Kadyrov added that Chechnya has already deployed 20,000 servicemen to war since February 24. Kadyrov threatened to mobilize any protesters in Chechnya and send them to the front, however. Kadyrov then seemingly modified his statements by encouraging those opposing mobilization to respect Russian sovereignty instead of using the constitution to avoid service.[14] Kadyrov’s initial statement, addressed to the Chechen public, may be an attempt to both address and discourage criticism of mobilization, the war, and himself within the Chechen community. Kadyrov’s statement could also be a worrisome indicator for the Kremlin—if one of the war’s most vociferous and aggressive advocates feels the need to refuse to mobilize his people, at least publicly, that could indicate that even Kadyrov senses the popular resentment the partial mobilization will cause and possibly even fears it.