Has nobody mentioned the great rates on grabaseat today?
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Has nobody mentioned the great rates on grabaseat today?
Well that was a bummer of a day ... and a bummer of week really
Maybe these ceilings are real ..... not unheard of for stocks to trade on PEs of 3 or 4
Hope next week is better than this
Bought a bag of plane lollies today - $1,20 at Countdown - just to remind me
After such a strong gain over the last few weeks since the annual meeting when it started that day at $2.50 some consolidation around these level's is not unexpected and I did warn you that you'll have to be patient.
Senior managers have been helping themselves to a payday by cashing in shares recently exercised as part of their long term incentive plan so that hasn't helped.
The market generally has been surprisingly strong this month and its become quite difficult to find pockets of value remaining therein, ...with a few obvious exceptions :D
Be careful how many of those plane lollies you eat at once...don't want your health to crash and burn of your own making :)
While there is always plenty of somewhat contradictory advice on these forms, as always the golden rule stands; DYOR. If anyone is buying and selling based purely on comments from this forum, then they are being reckless.
Very interesting chart and shows that notwithstanding the worst global financial crisis since the great depression in 1929 that over the last decade despite wild swings in oil prices and economic cycles that AIR has outperformed the NZX50 2:1. This makes something of a mockery of the old adage that you shouldn't "marry" an airline stock.
Further, Chris Luxon claimed at the annual meeting that the company has never been better positioned so the outlook would appear to be very bright. In my view with the current extremely low PE the SP is well primed for a repeat of the last decade's performance. I fully intend to be a long term holder but each to their own and YES, definitely do your own research.
So what's wrong?
1/ It is a graph of about 13 years;
2/ (and the big jump in share price in 2004 is the dead giveaway for this one) the AIR data fails to account for the share consolidation;
3/ You are comparing a gross value with a capital value.
See this post for a better view of the data
The correct conclusion remains:
Air is cyclical and your returns have, historically, over any medium to long time frame varied between terrible and fantastic.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
PS. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.
LOL Dating cyclical stocks v marrying them ? Who would have thought an airline stock would give you an average 13% compound return over the last decade. Not many stocks have done this with obvious notable exceptions like RYM, FPH and other market darlings. Who's best positioned for the next ten years ? Stocks priced for absolute perfection trading on a PE of circa 30 or those trading on a PE of 5 ?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...360&ref=NZH_Tw
The euphoria over winning the RWC will be the trigger that takes the AIR share price over $3 and beyond this week
Bring it on
And their planes are painted the right colour...this new Dreamliner has never looked so good http://www.airnewzealand.com/dreamli...n#!/experience :t_up:
Hasn't started well w69, lets hope it is people still slow to get moving for a Monday after the Sunday!
Thought looking at the RSI it is overbought, needs a bit of a breather before the next launch or should I say take off :-)
http://www.airnewzealand.com/dreamli...n#!/experience Nice advert Roger, but all company advertising are designed to make that company look good ..eh
There are 3 variants of Dreamliners operating (wiki) 787-8 787-9 787-10..AIRNZ has the 787-9 variant
Air NZ (as of 30/9/2015 Wiki) has 5 and there are 19 Airlines Companies who have more than Air NZ..Of the nearest competition Qantas has 11 ...
List of 787 orders and deliveries (as of 30/9/2015 Wiki)
There are noticeable absences on that list (e.g Emirates)
They have Airbus 380's variants
wiki says Qantas Group. I don't believe Qantas per se has any dreamliners (yet) only the Jetstar fleet. They did recently place an order for 15 787-9's.
Emirates are going to stick with the A380's the CEO is a big fan.
http://www.dw.com/en/emirates-ceo-fi...380/a-18410649
Have you ever seen an ugly fat person in an advertisement LOL. Yeap all Qantas group Dreamliners are online with the Jetstar brand and they have crammed over 330 seats inside the airframe. This suggests the name of the aircraft becomes something of an oxymoron. Edit, Yeap Jetstar are all "class", a whopping 335 seats in the smaller 787-8 model, ouch http://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Jet...eing_787-8.php
787-10's are designed as a shorter range version mate.
http://www.airnewzealand.com/dreamli...my/premiumseat
Put your feet up mate and think about next year's trip to the U.K. which will be free from your profits. Premium economy looks pretty good to me. Fly the Dreamliner to Singapore and then catch Singer's A380 from there.
And after losing the rugby QAN goes up (and the markets taking a bashing as well)
ABs euphoria at winning sends AIR price crashing
Go figure
QAN will get to 4 bucks before AIR gets to 3 bucks ......bad
ill bet if you took a survey of the total passengers for both QAN and AIR a surprising number of passengers wouldnt even know the name of NZ and OZ rugby teams---Theres just so much that goes on out there its hard to put a reason for everything--might just be that the euphoria jinxed it for the moment--Sentiment is an elusive beast--It just looks gloomy when compared to world cup win and it supposedly racing past the big $3 mark (which it may still do)
And who would guess that all those flash Dreamliners would belong in the Jetstar fleet instead of the Mother ship QAN.
IMO the dreamliners just basically up the ante--If you fill them your sweet--If not,its a pretty big price tag to make payments on. Guess it depends on your routes and demand.
Im not looking forward to arriving somewhere when 2-3 dream liners arrive at the same time (but it would be interesting to try one)
Aside from the Russian crash,there was a plane in the States that caught fire on the runway (engine) (Im not sure what kind it was or if AIR has many of those types but sometimes those things have an effect,even though in most cases ,they logically shouldnt.
OMG - 285 and sinking fast
Might have to believe the man on the radio tonight when he probably will say '...a bit of profit taking in AIR after a strong run over the last few weeks'
Those gurus know everything eh!
Yep profit taking the reason for most price drops according to those gurus, wouldn't sound right if they said a bunch of people had urgent bills to pay or lots of home renovations or that there still a whole bunch of non believers selling out, gurus too lazy to think outside the square aye.
I sussed it and no need to sell because it closed at 284 (stop was 284)
Obviously stop set too tight eh - just loosened the stop and by using 3 X ATR the stop has dropped to 282
Whew that was close
Tomorrow will be a much better day - and its Melbourne Cup day
Omen bet in Melbourne Cup
TRIP TO PARIS (via Heathrow with Air NZ)
Or though the mood Roger is in QUEST FOR MORE might be appropriate
All relationships have their up's and down's.
Actually speaking of up's and down's...ever thought the mountains looked really close on ascent and especially decent at Queenstown and the runway a bit short and narrow ?... well it turns out you're not alone. If they're worried I'd say passengers have every right to be especially in adverse visibility conditions or high winds :eek2:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11538718
QUEST FOR MORE sounds good to me Winner. If the jockey is wearing all-black that's your signal to bet the house on it :)
Well if you QUEST FOR MORE then:
sell your Air New Zealand shares trading at a mere 6.3% discount to broker consensus;
and
buy Qantas with their 14% discount to broker consensus and where you get the added bonus of
true All Blacks support:
http://media.nzherald.co.nz/webconte..._2_620x311.jpg
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Qantas crew dressed up in all blacks colours, priceless!!!at least we got one up here.
They were probably kiwi staff from Queer and Nasty Airlines NZ subsidiary Jetconnect.
Jetconnect operates 737's in Queer and Nasty livery. Stabling trans-tasman aircraft in NZ allows higher aircraft utilisation.
Employing cheaper Kiwi aircrew also gives the union bashers in senior management and the boardroom at Queer and Nasty Airlines a bit of a happy buzz as well.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
If the Russian A320 disaster was not sabotage then I imagine AIR price could keep going south. They have around thirty A320's and a world wide grounding won't be pretty.
From what I can see AIR has only 5 767s but this would have been a very different news item if the plane had been in the air
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/29/dynam...unway-faa.html
This was a 767 -200 and AIR have 767-300s so it may not be an issue at all if they are different beasts
It does seem more likely the Russian disaster was sabotage and if so things should settle in terms of the type of plane etc.,even if its not the case politically.
And further, they're starting to retire the 767-300's from March 2016. Unlike some airlines, AIR don't run planes that are of an age where they belong in MOTAT.
Average age of AIR's fleet is only 7.5 years, one of the most modern fuel efficient fleet's in the world.
It doesn't matter the age of the aircraft if it's maintained correctly.
Opened up 1 to 285...I would've thought yesterdays sell off was an over done considering the views by some on ST that AIR is fundamentally well under-priced....Mr Market had last night to think about yesterdays action and so far today considers AIR should still be correcting after its steep rally of +20% within the last month.
No major technical shifts... short term has fired sell signals and very close to medium term signaling....My discipline (medium term --default) says hold so I'm still holding...
These comments from the planes owner certainly point to an attack. Sadly it will be difficult to have any faith in any reports that will come out of Putin's Russia, the guy tried all he could to stop the investigation into the Malaysian Airlines flight shot down over Ukraine last year. https://www.rt.com/news/320469-sinai...ner-statement/
Airframes, systems, wiring, engines..all sorts of things gradually deteriorate over time...its the same with boats and trust me I know how bad maintenance on older boats can get. AIR's depreciation policy is to write down the value of aircraft on a straight line basis over 18 years. Generally after that time frame they consider the planes either uneconomic to reliably and efficiently work, (advances in technology and efficiency of newer planes) with or simply unfeasible, (to difficult to keep them operationally reliable and airworthy).
Would you buy your child a 30 year old car with no modern safety systems like air bags, crumple zones, ABS brakes, dynamic stability control e.t.c ? and yet some people are putting their kids in an old 30 year relic Saab 340 and flying them around New Zealand. Civil aviation has given its approval and says its okay so it must be right, really ?
I hesitate to point this out but I think its somewhat ironic that a Russian owned airline has apparently taken a terrorist hit. The principle's of natural justice playing themselves out perhaps...
Winner69 I reckon "Trip to Paris" is the omen bet for AIR shareholders in the Melbourne cup and its the second favourite. Even if you lose then go and book one on AIR for $999 each way for shoulder season in 2016 and you're still a Winner :) A brave man would bet $2K on the place at about $2.30 and try and get a Trip to Paris for free :D
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11539218
Ouch, not a good look :eek2:
Remember Roger winner69 will be flying the coop if the share price goes below $2.82( He will be keeping one eye on the market while studying his Melbourne cup prospects)
Why wouldn't they be? any clown could see late last week the stock was becoming overbought by observing basic TA indicators and that it would take a break and head downward, doesn't take away from the huge upside potential plus increasing divvies for the patient.
Last week I was a little annoyed that my stop was triggered at 2.92 and sold at 2.91. But I think it was a good lesson now to set stops and stick with them, after all we set them for a reason. Hope for all holders it stabilises and resumes liftoff.
Relatively light volume, nothing to panic just profit takers. Should be back up soon, and it'll propel much higher when that happens.
Suggest you google clowns; real clowns don't need just a red nose and big shoes to be funny guys its a serious vocation and very physical. I hope the s.p picks up but if not, I'm out having set a good margin of safety with my purchase price re $2.41-43 so i think a strategy to deal with downside is sensible and important if you are an investor.
Profit up , share price down ...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mar...-fare-war.html
Hi Skid..Yes still in
Short term signals have fired sell signals but I don't use these as I'm not a short term trader...Relying on short term signals when one is a medium/long term investor puts you at a high risk of being whipsawed..
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...2003102015.png
Some medium term TA indicator signals are triggering off now at 2.80ish..I can't see many indicators as Big charts only has limited amount and Incredible charts does not present todays data (Yahoo) until much later tonight or tomorrow...Unfortunately the Charting signals which I use are late due to the sudden sharp rally and my assumption is that most TA indicators would've fired off sell signals before the EMA signals are triggered..The EMA50, 100, 200 are at 2.70 2.65 2.60 and I really don't want to be still in waiting for these to fire but there is a Chartist quandary at these levels as there are line support areas around these 2.75 to 2.65 levels which combined with the EMA's makes a strong floor and the investing wisdom is to not sell around support areas ....so it seems if AIR price keeps falling there is going to be a TA indicators v TA charting conflict scenario..so life could get complicated...
In Hindsight there's a good argument to sell out when the shareprice faltered at the 2.95 resistance area......If the share price had happened to break through after selling it's easy enough to just buy in again...
I might think about it tomorrow as it is dangerous ignoring sell signals with cyclical stocks...even more so when they exhibit this topping pattern behaviour.
After all said and done..selling out at 2.80 realising +8% profit in 3/4 weeks is not all bad..
Cheers for that--I get the impression that alot of regular posters are also sitting on profits,which of course is a different psychological situation than sitting on huge losses like some of the more spec shares.
Its interesting to look at all angles.
Aside from charts(which is more about market sentiment) There is always the fundamental side and I can understand why some,especially those who have put in alot of hard work to arrive at their conclusions,are in for the long haul and it will take a far more dramatic change to shift that strategy--And then there are plenty in the middle that although they like the company and fundamentals,are also a bit wary of market sentiment at the moment,so have set some boundaries.
Its an interesting mix. Its for the most part pointless to debate who is wrong or right,but is educational to look at all options as the outcome unfolds-whatever that is.
As with all things in life though,Ive found the greater the attachment ,the harder it is to let go.
Shares are like anything you buy,a house a car or whatever,the real money is made on purchasing.
Making sure your purchase is correct, means you have to work hard on your research.Good research results in good investments.Poor research results in poor results.
Attachment is where you have to back test your research.If you are confident in your research you can ride the ups and downs.Sentimental attachment is something all of us investors should try to avoid,as it was not part of our research. .
I reckon research without attachment is the best out of the lot (but easier said than done)
I remember years ago when oilers were the rage-there was a coal seam oil share that posters loved so much they were going to get
t shirts made--when it sold out at not a great price ,it was a pretty hard landing for them.
No offense intended to AIR or any posters,but its just one more thing to put into the ole over shoulder computer:)
Such a shame that market is having such good rally and AIR isn't part of that, wonder why?
small fish selling out, I remember telling myself (back at $2.40) that I would sell at $2.80/90 if it ever reached that point again. However I've topped up, believe in the company and going to ride it out.
Peaks and troughs
There is also a bit of nervousness worldwide about the A320 aircraft. Lets hope this latest one is found to be an onboard bomb, and not structural failure.
This aircraft incurred a significant tail strike some years ago and with the tail section landing some distance from the wings and front fuselage, plus no burn marks inside the tail section I'm picking structural.
Looks a nice candle today with volume increasing to the close, maybe a bottom.
The A320 is a sound aircraft . This one reportedly had damage to the rear at some stage . So potentially it wasn't fixed correctly or checked up on properly. If it was structural failure it will be due to earlier incident and the maintenance .
imo current share price weakness has nothing to do with A320 .
Thanks for getting it up couta means I'm still holding;)
I think that Haka on the Tarmac helped a lot.
Yeah I think so Couta.I'm putting some faith into AIR that its correction is just a throw back action (A psychological behaviour after a sharp breakout rally)..
AIR was definitely looking like a bear for a few months and recently, after the AGM it broke out of it's bearish mode with the good forecasts from the AIR Management..Investors don't like bears and the AGM comments did not justify a bear scenario just yet so the investors bought in and everyone who wanted in had by the end of October got in and are now satisfied...Now comes the throwback..the lack of volume (momentum) lowers the demand and the price falls back...Its not really traders taking profits that causing the price to drop because the low volume says not many are selling (or buying for that matter)..its that psychological thing.. the investors being satisfied at the moment is the problem...As the price falls due to lack of momentum these satisfied investors may be tempted to start accumulating..it will also tempt others and the price/demand increases again..Seeing this action visually on a chart, the bull/bear line breakout ($2.70/$2.75) is where that support (temptation) should start ..
S&R areas isn't an exact science...maybe the rise off $2.77 could be where the support is..maybe the bottom of the throwback is around this level...maybe a bit lower around $2.70
Now that's my thinking and with it a possible scenario with good chances of happening.. now watch Mr Market make an idiot out of me..(I sell AIR then and break even)
Disc: still holding
AIR continues to add capacity. Next year increasing Auckland-Vancouver from 3 to 4 weekly, Auckland-Tokyo (Narita) from 7 to 9 with the Dreamliners and putting the Dreamliner to Cook Islands once per week.
Hope its better day for AIR sp today.
05/11/2015 14:15 GENERAL PRICE SENSITIVE REL: 1415 HRS Air New Zealand Limited (NS) GENERAL: AIR: Air NZ further invests in regional growth with ATR purchase Air New Zealand Chief Executive Officer Christopher Luxon, joined by Prime Minister John Key, has today announced the airline will purchase 15 new ATR72-600 aircraft to operate its regional services. Four of the new aircraft will allow for further growth on regional Air New Zealand routes while 11 will replace the airline's ATR72-500 fleet. At list prices the 15 new aircraft are collectively valued at $US375 million. In 2012 the airline announced it would add to its ATR fleet with an investment in 14 ATR72-600 aircraft - seven of these aircraft have since been delivered with the remaining seven due to join the fleet by mid-2016. The additional 15 new aircraft will begin arriving from late 2016. Christopher Luxon says the airline is proud of its commitment to operating both a world-leading turboprop fleet and a comprehensive regional network. "The extra four 68 seat ATR72-600 that we are adding to our fleet will enable us to operate up to an additional 600,000 seats into the New Zealand regional market annually. This latest investment will further allow us to maintain our low fare price and high frequency leadership," says Mr Luxon. "Once these new aircraft arrive we will operate a fleet of 29 ATR aircraft, the third largest ATR fleet in the world which is testament to the breadth and depth of our regional network." In addition to ATR aircraft Air New Zealand also currently operates ten 19-seat Beech 1900D and 23 50-seat Bombardier Q300 aircraft types.
Virgin Australia Claws Its Way to 1Q Profit -- Market Talk
Posted on 5 November 2015 13:38 | Dow Jones Institutional News
0038 GMT [Dow Jones] Virgin Australia (VAH.AU) scraped its way to a small A$1.7 million ($1.2 million) profit in it first quarter, as it boosted yields by acquiring more higher-paying corporate customers. The bottom line was also boosted by continued cost cuts and an improved performance from Tigerair after Virgin Australia took full control of the low-cost carrier a little over a year ago. Chief Executive Officer John Borghetti says the airline has achieved a "significant turnaround" in the quarter, and is on track for an annual profit after three years in the red. The result is supporting the company's stock steady in a weaker overall market. Virgin Australia shares were last down 0.5% at A$47.75, outperforming the benchmark S&P/ASX 200, which was down 1.3% and larger peer Qantas Airways (QAN.AU), down 1.6%. (rebecca.thurlow@wsj.com; @beckthurlow)
So more new planes:
A quick look says an ATR72-600 is an ATR72-500 with a slight improvement in some aspects, but is otherwise the same, seating capacity included.
Using the spare cash while things are going great to continue to modernise the fleet and also expand it seems like a good strategy.
Wonder what will happen to those 11 500's?
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger