There is a good interview with Malcolm John's on the Sharesies YouTube channel. It was posted yesterday
https://youtu.be/p__FAN_dGX0?si=NgE0gsiAz8V9vClq
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There is a good interview with Malcolm John's on the Sharesies YouTube channel. It was posted yesterday
https://youtu.be/p__FAN_dGX0?si=NgE0gsiAz8V9vClq
From what I've read the country needs Huntley to provide power to keep the system working when there is no wind or sun etc. However at this time Huntley uses fossil fuels, which in the long term is a problem.
So why can't GNE change Huntley over to run on Hydrogen which is a clean energy? Then everyone would be happy.
Sčems to me they could make hydrogen in the middle of the night when there is excess electricity in the system.
Well the problem with hydrogen is you need a heap of energy for the electrolysis to get it from water, so unless they’re willing to do that during times of cheap power, store it and then burn it when it’s profitable GNE is gonna have to look elsewhere. They’ve been talking about using biofuels which is a start
That makes perfect sense from an integrated, strategic point of view, but the New Zealand electricity system does not have an integrated, strategic focus.
Is Huntly CCGT back on line early? Or doing some acceptance / other testing? Transpower is reporting 468MW gas generation atm.
Decent stats released this morning and confirming it is up and running again.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...094/411264.pdf
From a TA perspective, for the med-long term investors there MAY be some signs of green shoots (pun intended) starting to appear with the GNE share price.
A low was printed late Oct (nicely coinciding with bond markets printing an interim bottom), and there has been 10% move to the upside since.
BUT on a cautionary note, the move up has been rather laboured, and certainly not on an expanding volume basis.
GNE is now kissing a reasonably significant downward trend line (originating in Jan 2021), along with the 200 EMA. Will it clearly breakthrough, & hold above this zone?
I rolled the dice on them in the 2.40’s and pleased to see them increasing their market share with customer base. I anticipate a drier summer limiting renewables from hydro generation and huntly back in line is well placed to capitalize on this. Comparing to other gentailers it’s share price has underperformed, maybe with the investing into solar versus maximizing dividends is part of that but my simple thought on it is more upside than down. Not anticipating stellar performance but room for improvement.
Movie stars making predictions about the future has a mixed history, but I'm not going to let that stop me.
Someone will build a 1,000Mw thermal power station adjacent to the Auckland Isthmus within the next ten years. It will be needed to keep the lights on.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
No chance of getting resource consent
That is why Huntly is such a valuable (and under-valued) asset. It already has resource consent and emissions allowances for over 1000 MW of thermal
It is also why the government stopping Lake Onslow was such a short-sighted moronic decision. But that chapter is history now
good news for S/H
Thousands of Kiwis' power bills are about to get more expensive after Genesis Energy revealed it's raising its prices again
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-z...ice-hikes.html
That article was clearly written by an imbecile, and never peer reviewed
One customer's power bill going from $0.60/day to $0.90/day. So this "customer" uses no power and doesn't pay GST??? The low user tariff is increasing from $0.60/day to $0.90/day plus GST.
One customer's power bill "doubled", with a 1.6% average increase. A doubling would be 100%........
The low user tariff was never targeted as helping low income families. It was targeted by the government at promoting energy efficiencies (savings) and to avoid penalising ICP's that use very little power like bach's
It was labour that decided that low income families were missing out on these low user tarrifs, so Labour mandated their phase out over 5 or 6 years, with a review at the midpoint
Anyway, GNE did state their intention to pass these annual low user tariff increases along in February every year. So this isn't really a new occurrence, they did it last February as well
Personally I recently locked into a 5 year solar power fixed plan with Meridian, so no increases for me for another 4.5 years and a super-good buy-back rate for my excess solar power
I will note that GNE was previously my electricity supplier, but would not match the Meridian offer. I gave them two chances to retain my business before switching. So much for customer retention, maybe that team has been disestablished???
Customer retention teams basically don't exist anymore. Labour put a end to that too. I use to be with mercury and everytime I'd go to leave they would offer me deals. Sometimes I said no and they would still come back cheaper. From memory I was locked in for two year and achieved a night time rate of 9cent s a kW great with the electric car. Since then I've been with genisis, electric kiwi and now powershop. Electric kiwi would be one of the most expensive now from the cheapest 2 year years ago. I shop around alot 😊
Yes, I know you are correct. We have a huge solar power system, I built some massive home batteries from EV batteries, and we are a net power exporter. So they made their money from us by arbitrage on our solar export
But being a shareholder, I really wanted to stay with GNE. Plus, I liked their EVerywhere plan
Anyway, GNE seem to be doing OK on customer numbers for the past few years
i imagine payback was relatively quick on your solar setup.
i have a nice big nth facing into the sun skillon roof perfect for a large solar setup but unfortunately for me financials just dont stack up going solar. at payback it wouldnt be long after that the panels would need replacing again. :( so no go
But if you’re a net exporter, why are you moving away from them because they raised their prices ?
Im with Genesis and am a net exporter. Im just hoping they’re increasing their buyback rate as well as the power charges
Do you mind me asking what buyback rate Meridian offered ?
Yes, payback was about 3.5 years. I have 20KW of solar panels, 60-70KWh of battery storage, and the ability to discharge batteries to the grid. I designed and installed the system myself, bought panels cheaply by the pallet load from installers quitting superseded stock, and built the storage batteries myself using EV batteries. Cost us about $24K all up, but built in stages over 4 years to spread the cost
Each year we save $3K in electricity, $3K in petrol and get $2K from the electricity company. We are now fully paid off
Get a quote from a company that let's you help do the install, and don't get a quote from Harrison's as they are OTT expensive. Don't get a battery, build a big 10KW system and export during summer and use that credit during the winter. And use your electric hot water cylinder as a battery (there are devices that automate this function). You should get a 6-7 year payback, maybe even 5 years
No i did not change electricity companies because GNE raised their prices. But because I got a much better offer from Meridian ($0.17/KWh vs $0.12/KWh from GNE). We export about 12MWh each year, so the difference is $600, or $3K over 5 years. Plus, with Meridian, everything is fixed for 5 years, even the low user daily fee. Strangely, the 5 year fixed only applies to Meridian's side of the deal, I am only locked in for 2 years. I fully expect to stay for 5 years though
We export every month except June where we are neutral. I built the system this way
We're in Christchurch with 5.4KW of panels and a 5KW Inverter, no battery but have smart diverter to heat water cylinder before any surplus power gets exported, system produces about 7MWh each year and we try to use as much of that as we can.
Having solar has roughly halved our power bill each year but as the cost of power goes up the savings should increase, especially as the export rate we receive has risen from 8.5 cents to 13 cents since the system was installed.
Our solar panels face 13 degrees East of true North.
Have a look here
https://poweredge.nz/
That is a very good buy back rate, and hot off the press in the last few days. But always check that your export credit will be paid out. Some companies (like Octopus) only allow the solar buy back credit to be used to offset your electricity purchases. So if your buy back credit exceeds your power purchases, you effectively get a reduced buy back rate
Meridian also gave me a $300 welcome credit, which will pay my daily fixed charges ($0.69/day incl gst for us) for about a year
"FORESTA SECURES 10-YEAR WOOD SUPPLY AGREEMENT FOR PLANNED LOW EMISSIONS FUEL PLANT AT KAWERAU"
"The plant will produce torrefied black wood pellets which are a seamless drop-in replacement for coal as a fuel source in boilers without any loss of energy intensity while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. A recent Genesis trial at Huntly power station using similar pellets reduced emissions by at least 90%."
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/3...+12+April+2024
I’m trying to figure out why GNE is 15% down in 12 months versus other gentailers up 10-15% over same period. A 30% swing compared to industry is rather significant.
Lower divs indicated, cap ex coming and variable generation expenses. I think less hydro at the moment. Just things I have read over the last 9 months here and there. I had a small holding.
……..and investors yield expectations beginning to revert to long term average ….they want a higher yield than what they we’re getting at 250
Reduced dividend hasn’t help and GNE still seen as relatively ‘risky’
The removal of GNE from an index fund lead to the largest trading volumes since listing. This sustained selling is always going to hurt SP
The dividend has been reduced (Kupe revenue will now pay for solar and battery projects without any capital raise), which will hurt SP in the short term
Huntly unit 5 had a failure that took a very long time to repair, and the cost is still sitting on GNE balance sheet. Insurance will pay out eventually, but is taking a very long time to resolve. After Insurance, the failure will still cost GNE $25M
Recently a lot of money has been spent on improving Kupe gas output. Current indirect signs (Rankines running rather than CCGT) indicate this is not going as planned
High interest rates have and inverse effect on yield stock like GNE. And we all know that interest rates have stayed higher for longer than expected (or necessary). The RB governor's thin skin and wilful ignorance of basic economics is causing unnecessary pain in many areas of the economy (and labour reappointed him for another 5 year term)
Senior management has recently changed, and IMO they are not understanding their role in promoting the company as an investment opportunity that is currently significantly under valued
I'm pretty sure the SP will improve in the next 6 months as many of the above headwinds disappear or become tailwinds
Good posts thanks all.
I thought the market was more forward thinking and looking at operations reports they are increasing their market share month on month, renewables investment wise, national govt signaling oil and gas investment needed and supported.
I’ve had a couple of small bites in last few months and thinking about some more given it seems to be discounted compared to the other sector players but the SP weakness I anticipated to make it a buy signal hasn’t happened.
GNE current yield after tax 5.66% v 10 year Govt at 3.35% …..difference of 2.31% points
Since listing that difference has been 3.9% points but there is a case to say last few years is more relevant and difference is say 3.0% points
So to maintain that 3.0% points difference GNE would be a post tax yield of 6.35% ….implying a share price ofvabout $2.00
Here’s the updated chart of the difference between Govt 10 and GNE divie yield
Some would say that the difference is a reflection of ‘risk’. Seems punters see GNE less ‘risky’ than in the past and are prepared to accept what’s on offer. (My view is that GNE is still relatively ‘risky’)
Some will say this ‘analysis’ is a load of codswallop ..sobeit but it has served me well over the last couple of years iand avoiding the temptation to take a punt on GNE and avoided capital losses.
This kind of chart adds value winner, thanks for sharing.
I wonder if the Genesis share price benefits from the avalanche of cash that goes into KiwiSaver funds each fortnight . Its included in KiwiSaver funds right? Ok it's not included in mine, a default fund (the other power boards are) but it's probably in my other managed funds - nope can't see it in the list of NZ shares in either fund. Weird.
Well at least our very own NZ Super Fund will have a chunk I guess...just checking - nope they divested in 2017. Something about fossil fuels and coal.
Now I'm no expert but people have to be wanting to buy for the price to be bid up I think. Happy to be corrected.
CEO Malcolm Johns tells us the so-called ESG discount applied to the Genesis share price will be unwound because of his recently announced strategy …. discount probably more than 30% now
If so GNE shareprice could be about $3.50 …divie yield of 5.7% ….if he doesn’t cut the divie again
I think Johns is in fantasy land
That's interesting. I didnt realise it had been calculated. I only have 1000 Genesis shares now, my last individual holding, so no longer follow.
I should also point out, my portfolio is 7 per cent Energy (real energy, the stuff that our prosperity has been built on not the other stuff) which is almost twice the weighting in the S&P500. Hence my default KiwiSaver fund. I don't need anymore plus I needed some bonds to balance everything out.
Where do you get this "stuff" from? When I listened to Malcolm (annual result presentation and on Sharsies podcast), I herd something different. I herd him say that GNE suffers from a SP penalty due to ESG, but I never herd him say anything about 30% or any percentage at all. When did he quantify it at 30%?
I never herd him say that the new strategy would remove the ESG penalty. Where did he state this? I did hear him say it is expected to reduce the penalty over time
And I also herd him say that GNE SP is burdened with this penalty, even though coal and gas are necessary to keep the lights on. He went on to say that the burden must be shared, and NZ must understand that it is not possible to eliminate thermal generation with our current and future generation mix. This was to be discussed with government and other generators
14cps / 350c = 4% yield before tax. Assuming 80% imputation and 33% personal tax rate = 3.8% after tax. GNE has been providing 100% IC's with recent dividends, but I see this as a short term benefit rather than an ongoing situation
I think the new CEO has been quite grounded in his comments that I herd. But I look forward to hearing your reply about when statements you attribute to him were made
Yep I debated that, and wasn't sure weather to use an "a" in their or not. But as it's consistent, it only counts as one mistake made several times. The actual spelling was correct, for a herd of cows, so spell checker was no help in this instance. I took a punt, and left out the "a". English.... whoever dreamed it up, should have been shot and the dictionary immediately destroyed, just like Blackadder wanted. And now the world even has regional variations of English spelling, with americans swapping z for s and leaving out important u's
And yes, I used weather and their for your continued entertainment....
Xafalcon …I get my ‘stuff’ re GNE mainly from media reports. There was a good piece by Patrick Smellie in BusinessDesk following a day long preso to analysts et all and a site visit at Huntly
Maybe I was not exactly correct in what Malcolm said but the gist of what I was said seems to was what he was getting at at that preso.
Malcolm might not have actually said the ESG discount was 30% but general consensus is ‘depends on who you talk to the discount is 20% to 30%’. I think it’s fair to assume the updated strategy is aimed at trying to close that and even if not specifically said that is the strong implication isn’t it.
I like one quote by Malcolm from that day that there is “no market segment or political constituency for cold showers by candlelight”.
Whatever keep up your detailed reporting of the things you herd in different events …they are valuable ….and more specific than my generalised stuff eh
I’m still deliberating on nibbling at some more and value the various insights since asking the question.
Well they just put up my bottled gas prices by 60%. That's got to be a win for shareholders 😂
Thanks to all for the valuable thoughts and input.
I don’t see regulatory change as a big risk under National. We are already facing the challenges of supply demands from labour/greens which is rapidly decreasing and with this comes public awareness relative to pricing.
Its not without risk, SP price is offsetting this a bit, I like their EV/PHEV plan with taking pricing plan to public chargers and I suspect why they are gradually increasing customer base over the year. Might sit back for a little bit longer and see if the declining SP shows some better signals.
Gas supply is confirmed as insufficient to supply contracted volumes. Huntly to import more coal. Other generators to consider funding coal stockpile. In a perverse way, this is all good news for GNE - higher gas prices, higher electricity prices, forces the issue of coal funding, potentially raises the issue of funding thermal generation stay in business costs
Yep we're running out of gas
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/05/08/g...ng-gas-supply/
Labour got the blame for coal imports caused by dry weather, I wonder if national will get the blame for coal imports caused by poor gas supply. Probably easier than having a mature discussion on where to proceed now that Onslow has been ditched
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...JDZPHOMFPYEXE/
I wonder if Aderns decision on exploration had any bearing on this ? I guess not for this near term shortage.
Do we have coal in NZ that we should be mining instead of importing ?
There is gas under the ground in NZ too.
But as NZO has stated. We can make more money drilling for gas in Australia then shipping it back to NZ.
The consumer pays at the end of the day.
If NZ coal production is subject to export contracts, then it would make sense to import for Huntly's stockpile. Also I think the type and grade of the coal can be important.
I am not sure how the cost of extraction from NZ mines for the volumes required compare with overseas sources of coal.
Coal exported from the Buller mines is metallurgical coal used in steel making and thus commands a premium over steaming coal. It would not be economic to use this coal to raise steam when steaming coal even when transported from far away is cheaper.
NZ has no large easy mineable deposits of steaming coal like for example the US Powder River Basin. This means importing is the most economic option.
Chrystal ball gazing time: A 1,00Mw thermal generating plant should be built adjacent to the Auckland Isthmus. Yeah I know. It would cause a large section of NZ's population to start rending their garments.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Spot electricity prices spiked to $4,900 at Otahuhu 8:00AM this morning.
Common practice at overseas coal powered generating plants is to have two stockpiles of coal. One, the largest, is standard steaming coal with is used in ordinary operations. The other is high heat value quick burning coal which is used to raise output quickly in situations such as this mornings spike.
I don't know if Huntly uses this practice. Does the control room yell down the speaker tube telling Paddy the stoker to start shoveling from the other stockpile and make some cash for the shareholders?
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
I was listening to the radio in the car yesterday and they were discussing this exact thing. Reefton has all the answers.
True that Buller is high quality bituminous coal ideal for coking coal. Not used to 'steaming' coal terminology but ill swap that out for one I am used to which is thermal coal.
Maramarua (204,790 tonnes in 2022) and Rotowaro (406,848 tonnes in 2022) in the Waikato still produce plenty of thermal coal. Mainly for Fonterra for milk processing and Glenbrook for steel. Wouldn't be that hard to get enough production for Huntly but unfortunately the cheapest Indonesian thermal coal is high ash and high sulphur, China banned it about 10 years ago making it the cheapest thermal coal in the market. No standards here so GNE chooses to screw local workers and the environment both in Indo and here to save a few bucks.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ng-almost-15bn
Your correct we don't have a deposit like Powder river basin but plenty of mapped thermal coal resources in the Waikato we could use to save some Indonesian rainforest, help our balance of trade and make a few local jobs. Better if Labour hadn't gutted the gas industry, then this wouldn't be the crappy trade off we are left with.
Some background info here
https://www.gem.wiki/Huntly_power_station
"is fuelled by a blend of local and Indonesian coal, gas from south Taranaki’s Kupe field, and recently, Canadian wood pellets, pressed and processed to resemble the thermal efficiency of coal, albeit without the emissions."
https://www.waikatotimes.co.nz/a/nz-...athedral-power
The Huntly power station is literally, built on top of a coal mine. I believe this is why it was located there, to access local coal. And just up the road was Meremere, which used to have a cool bucket line that carried coal from a mine on the other side of the river
It is such a sorry state of affairs, when coal beneath the foundations of the power station is being overlooked and Indonesian coal is transported 5000km(?) by sea and trucked 100km from the port. No wonder NZ Inc is falling further and further down the prosperity index
But I think this situation is probably being played by GNE to leverage financial backing of the coal stockpile and the overhaul of the NZ electricity market which heavily penalises GNE with the Max Bradford pricing mechanism
Tonight/tomorrow morning, Genesis, with its beautiful coal burners, will stand between us and blackouts/ economic oblivion.
I may have mostly deserted the Genesis ship with my pitiful 1000 shares to get outlandish returns in foreign shores, but I'm still an owner. I'd be shoveling coal for free if given the chance (well, food would have to be provided).
My monster Rinnai gas heater is doing the business at the moment. I'm doing my best to take pressure off the electricity market which appears to be out of control just now.
Burning barrels of oil(edit: diesel) at Whirinaki is expensive!
Why can't the govt compensate rio to shut down the aliminium smelter during days of high demand.
Or.. fast track the withdrawal.
Why has genesis taken a hit over the last few weeks ? Haven't been following. Is it Esg concerns after they said they are going to stockpile coal?
You have been sleeping for too long Panda. It is no longer 1977. The power system is now run at arms length from the government with a bid/offer system open to all generators, with Transpower keeping a watching brief and 'jawboning' when necessary (such as this morning). Tiwai have a supply contract with Meridian/Contact. They are already being compensated for having agreed to shut down operations at peak demand time by the lower unit price they pay at other times.
Tiwai are no longer planning to go is the word.
And sorry to be the one to break this news to you. But Rob Muldoon is no longer leading the National party or the government. In fact, he has died.
SNOOPY
Sorry for coming up with ideas to keep the lights on in NZ, Snoops.
How about healthy modern homes. We haven't turned the heat on at home yet even though there's been a couple of frosts.
My house is similar to an old garden shed. Was freezing this morning. Can't complain.
Burning diesel again today. That's going to hurt the hip pocket
And is a great illustration of the need for thermal to back up renewables. And the more renewables, the more back up that is needed. But I doubt any new thermal plants would get resource consent
Also shows the folly of cancelling Lake Onslow, which would have been the perfect back up for renewables (in 10 years when Huntly rankines are retired)
Anyone heard anything on how the Kupe KS 9 results are going?
Letter to the editor from 'Steven Nichols' an 'Engineer working in the energy sector" in the May 16th 2024 issue of the Christchurch Star
------------------
New offshore gas exploration is unnecessary creating complex issues and serious financial risks for New Zealand.
Onshore gas exploration is not currently banned and there is no domestic need for new offshore supplies. Modelling commissioned by MBIE for the Gas Transition Plan has shown that we can meet current gas demand for residential commercial and industrial purposes from onshore supplies and investment. Offshore gas supplies have traditionally been underpinned by larger petrochemical users such as Methanex and cost more to develop than onshore supplies.
Reopening offshore oil and gas exploration is inconsistent with our Paris Agreement targets and our free trade agreement with the EU (which require us to meet our Paris targets). Failure to meet both has serious financial implications for New Zealand in the form of penalties and purchasing offshore carbon credits. Pursuing new offshore gas exploration will cost New Zealanders more money in the long run and make it harder to meet our decarbonisation targets.
The near grid emergency on the morning of May 9th was less about gas supplies and more about an early cold snap, combined with 700MW of generation undergoing scheduled maintenance. It was an issue of capacity, not shortage of energy.
-------------------------------------
SNOOPY
KS 9 has already been drilled. They were working on how to get the best flow rates out of it.
NZO has publicly stated that is makes more sense to spend shareholders money in Australian onshore wells and 'shipping' it to NZ for a better return.
The Kupe Drills had been committed to years ago to try and extend the life of Kupe. This is still GNEs baby and they need to make the most of it, for shareholders and NZ.
Its good having someone like Shane Jones in Parliament. He seems to have a good handle on things and seems to appreciate the importance of Genesis in our energy mix.
https://youtu.be/O2D2zb8FjL8?si=e5krUbITl7D4NzYj
PS not a NZ First voter but like a pragmatic approach.
That is the biggest problem with renewables. Especially solar and wind. They are unreliable and intermittent. For every bit of solar and wind you have, you need backup. This is all extra and creates more costs, especially unneeded capital costs. I think wind and solar (at grid level) should be banned.
Well banned is probably strongly worded, but should not be promoted to the extent that it is or subsidised that it is.
Would be great for Genesis to bring back that fourth Rankine unit
NZ needs it.
KS 9 officially a duster. This is really concerning news for a number of reasons. Micro and Macro.
Bad news for the shareholders, NZ gas customers and any momentum that Shane Jones was trying to muster up for investment in the NZ Oil and Gas Industry.
And NZO has just announced that it is leaving the NZX.
I am new here.
Noting that the share price is in decline, what is the state of affairs for Genesis.
- KS-9 not as successful as hoped
- Huntly mothballed ?
Have I got anything wrong? Or missing something?
I will stick my oar in on this one. Historically in NZ, any large gas discovery be it onshore (Kapuni) or offshore (i.e. Maui) has needed large buyers of the natural gas before they can be developed. Traditionally so they can boost associated condensate production but also because the processing plants have to produce the gas, then there is an obvious need to have someone who can swing demand so that gas is not burned and wasted. Methanex is a critical part of this ecosystem by being able to start and mothball methanol trains to match demand to supply. With out these kinds of large customers no one can invest properly in onshore as they are going to be left with unsaleable gas and fields that cant swing up or down to meet demand. Ahuroa was to partially deal with this but then it got broken by the energy traders swinging too hard on the cushion until they had water breakthrough and lost most of their storage space.
Seems to me KS-9 is completely turned off and watered out. So that is $65 million dollars shredded and Kupe will need decommissioning sooner than expected. The gas left in Kupe will be worth more as a lot of demand is inflexible but I suspect it is going to be an untidy end to NZ domestic gas production.
I looked up Steven Nichols on LinkedIn and he had put this on his profile description:
"Experienced Energy Engineer with a passion for energy efficiency and decarbonisation. Enjoys thinking outside the box and considering the wider impacts of engineering design on the environment and people. Skilled at process analysis and energy auditing of industrial and commercial facilities. Strong experience partnering with food and beverage facilities, ranging from dairy factories to distilleries, to achieve their sustainability and energy efficiency goals."
People can read his self written blurb and form their own opinions on if he might have a 'decarbonisation' tinted glasses when thinking about the gas market.
bobestm, if you want to find out about key events in a company's history that may be affecting the share price, the best thing to do is do a search for:
(company) investor relations
where (company) represents the name of the company of your interest. So in this case (company) = 'genesis energy'. The result of such a search leads me here:
https://www.genesisenergy.co.nz/investor
Click the tab that says 'results and reports' and the drop down menu leads you to a 'market announcements' option. You will then be able to access all of the NZX announcements which are dated and in chronological order. Generally you would look for information released to the market at the latest half yearly reporting date. If you want investor reaction to any market announcement, you simply go back through the pages of this 'Sharetrader' thread to that date (you will note that all posts have a date on them) , and see what members of the 'Sharetrader'; community said about the announcement at the time. Of course it is not always only the half year announcements that matter. The most recent NZX release dated 22nd May 2024 titled 'Kupe Production Update' might have something to do with the more recent share price fall?
SNOOPY
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/433539
Genesis Energy advises that FY25 EBITDAF is expected to be around $460m subject to hydrological conditions, gas availability, plant availability and any material adverse events or unforeseeable circumstances.
Daily gas production at Kupe is expected to be between 37-47 TJ/day as a result of the KS-9 outcome and general field decline. The lower gas is expected to result in higher generation costs due to increased use of higher-cost solid fuel.
“The current gas market conditions are driving a challenging short-term outlook for the country; less gas means more solid fuel and higher generation costs for Genesis. The Company remains focused on executing our long-term strategy to accelerate development of new renewable generation and battery storage, reposition Huntly into a grid-scale peaking and firming facility and displace coal with biomass,” said Chief Executive Malcolm Johns.
Previously announced organisational changes have progressed as planned and FY25 operating expenditure is in line with expectations. FY25 capital expenditure is expected to be around $180m. This includes approximately $80m growth spend relating to a grid scale battery at Huntly Power Station, with final investment decision expected mid CY-2024.
FY24 guidance remains unchanged.
Kupe Reserves
Genesis Energy is in the process of independently verifying Kupe Oil and Gas Field reserves. Current expectations are that field-wide proved and probable reserves (‘2P’) will be revised down by approximately 80 Peta joule equivalents (‘PJe’) . The final reserves position will be released with Genesis’ FY24 full year results on 22 August 2024.
Bob, that’s first earnings downgrade for F25 …. Ebitdaf previous $500m now down to $460m
At least $460m is higher than the $450m guidance for F24 so thats good
Still expect reduced divie sometime and share price <$2