Aust to go ... only a matter of days now ... but the price is getting cheaper for the private equity guys ... a dog recognised as such at last
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3386949a13,00.html
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Aust to go ... only a matter of days now ... but the price is getting cheaper for the private equity guys ... a dog recognised as such at last
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3386949a13,00.html
Hey K9, while a $2 call was crazy, you did originally out a $2.50 call yourself which you changed after a few posts of mine! Perhaps you are going a little far with your ridiculing methinks.
:D:D:D:D:D:D
what???
now you are trying to claim some kind of credit
...for my own posts?
maybe I should now claim I helped you hold for another 50c on MHI[:o)]
No, just that you reviewed your initial call after I asked what it was based on and suggested that it was a bit extreme.
Snoopy .. your post on sharechat
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum/showthread.php?t=78
Good stuff and keeps the thread going
Do I read it correctly that the new workings and assumptions are based on the future in NZ alone, ie assuming Austrlaia gone.
For those who don't go to sharechat Snoopys model says 380 would give a long term return of 7.6%
Snoopy, a question - if one wnated a Buffet like 15% return wpuld price would one buy at?
Interesting that your modelling comes up with about the current price ... sort of suggests that Mr Market has already priced in the 'good news' of an Australian exit
Yes that is correct. I have also downgraded the expected ROE to better reflect the fact that WHS is a mature NZ business. I see WHS as still growing and still generating above average long term returns. Despite recent difficulties WHS do have a very good record stretching back over ten years after all. I don't subscribe to the view that management have 'suddenly lost it'.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by winner69
Snoopy .. your post on sharechat
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum/showthread.php?t=78
Good stuff and keeps the thread going
Do I read it correctly that the new workings and assumptions are based on the future in NZ alone, ie assuming Australia gone.
That info you seek is on the horrible squashed up sideways chart I was forced to post as an attachment to the text I posted on 31st July 2005. If you look really hard at the top LH corner of the chart (relative to the orientation in which it is posted) you will see the figure you want. "$1.95".Quote:
quote:
For those who don't go to sharechat Snoopys model says 380 would give a long term return of 7.6%
Snoopy, a question - if one wanted a Buffet like 15% return would price would one buy at?
I think some WHS followers are of the view that once WHS get out of Australia their problems will be over. I don't subscribe to this view. It will be much harder for WHS to grow their business if restricted to the NZ market alone. And there are the profitability trend problems with the Red Sheds to sort out.Quote:
quote:
Interesting that your modelling comes up with about the current price ... sort of suggests that Mr Market has already priced in the 'good news' of an Australian exit
I was in the newest WHS last week, the new one in Riccarton Christchurch. Notable in that I don't go to the WHS every week like may NZers do!
I must say I was impressed with the new 'uncluttered' look. It did seem easy to make my way about the store to find what I wanted. I even picked up some WHS travel insurance for a short trip to Oz I have planned - how many of you knew WHS even sold that? Price compared very favourably with what I could get via my travel agent or my bank.
I picked up a three pack of long woollen blended socks ($9, not on special, but the regular price seemed to be cheaper than the 'special prices' at other stores for NZ made product). I also bought the toilet paper there. I didn't plan that, but there it was prominently displayed at the end of the aisle at a good price so I purchased.
As a concept I think the revamp will work.
SNOOPY
Bongo - interesting comments about a bit of panic at HQ.
Will look forward to the next announcement
I hope they don't do a Postie Plus and blame warm weather in July ... how original
Re sales / sqm ... what's new .... for a few years now sales/sqm in the Red Sheds has been declining
The more footprint they put down the bigger the problem seems to get .. revenues don't seem to increase at the same rate and expenses go up.
I am fascinated as to where you are getting these insider insights from Bongo!Quote:
quote:Originally posted by bongo66
The large concept stores in Hamilton and Whangerei are not working. Sales per sq metre are down.
IMO you are viewing the sales situation too simplistically. I could easily improve WHS sales per square metre. I would close all stores and replace them with telephone booths with a single cashier.
To shop at WHS, you would then take down your weekly flier to the booth and the operator would get your order sent to a single centralised distribution warehouse and the goods would be couriered out to your home. My strategy would drastically improve sales per square metre. But would it be in the best interests of the Warehouse company?
Take the new Riccarton Warehouse that has moved from Upper Riccarton, the Bush Inn Centre, to a stand alone site on Blenhiem Road - the site of the former Warehouse regional distribution centre in fact.
The new site is bigger, yes, but it is also in an area that has traditionally been filled with wholesale distribution type businesses and factories. IOW, WHS have moved from 'prime retail' to an industrial area with (I presume) consummately lower rates. I'm picking the new site has a lower cost base. That means profitability could actually improve with the same number of sales and -because the new store is larger- that could mean improved profitability with 'lower sales per square metre'.
'Store location' seems to be a part of the Warehouse development strategy that most people miss. Warehouse tend to keep out of shopping malls, not because sales would suffer if they went there.
The problem is the sales increases a mall based WHS would get would not justify the higher rent payable compared to a stand alone WHS site. 'Profitable growth' is what the red sheds need. Not 'growth at any price'.
SNOOPY
discl: hold WHS
Me neither. It happened over several years! [:p]Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Snoopy
I don't subscribe to the view that management have 'suddenly lost it'.
Full year announcement Sep 9th I believe
Could be interesting