Do you seriously think they have a problem with finding a plant to buy/process high grade ore?
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Hopefully not - but an announcement that they have secure this would be good.
It's just JT being disingenous. There has been no suggestion there is a problem with possible processors. Quite the opposite. They just want to choose the one most suitable and profitable
Although in NZD terms, doing OK, but not really going anywhere: https://gogold.co.nz/Pricing.php
(Still feeling pretty positive about this one, though).
Someones keen, just took out 2mil at 1.8
Just saw this posted over at hotcopper and wanted to share and see if the figures makes sense here. When ore starts coming out we'll some great traction in the sp this year -
"Hello Everybody,
I was just thinking about all the negative comments. Some numbers run through my head, so please tell me if my numbers make no sense.
So we have a really high grade mine, if they use the concentrator, I understood that they can easily get a 100 g/t out of the mine.
here are some of my calculations:
5000t / year
5000*100=500000/31,5 =15 873 oz * 1100 nzd (1800 nzd-700 nzd( all in cost ))= 17 460 300 nzd
10000t / year
=34 920 600
20000t / year
=69 841 200
and this is profit, so I dont get what is bad about these numbers, they will have a lot more money than now and can expand more rapidly than before.
I am not calling myself any expert, but this makes sense to me"
Probably in the ball park. Don’t forget they can take out 20000 cubic meters / year which is about 50000 tonnes. So if you want to be really optimistic then your 70M$ is a tad pessimistic. The mine should be a profitable one. Time will tell how profitable. There may be a few fish hooks we are not aware of.
Sounds about right to me. Even if the outputs are optimistic figures, since this is the first year and they might for god knows why focus on prospecting the other place, the pessimist in me says the lower bound of their extraction would be 2500t (concentrated) this year. That's still ~$17.5M (see above) / 2 = $8.7M in profits. At a market cap of $39M, that's a PE ratio of 39/8.7 = ~4.5. That's unheard of, considering the average PE for gold mines is about 22, and considering it's really pessimistic compared to everyone else.
Another way I looked at it; considering there is about ~470,000 oz (taken from half-year) with another possible 300k-600k oz (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/306728, 2nd paragraph), being harsh that's 600k oz of gold. At $1800/oz price and $700/oz cost, that's $660M of profits NTL is sitting on. Even if they didn't maximise production potential and took the entire 25 years to mine all that (which they won't), that's an average of $26.4M per year, or an average PE ~1.5.
Seems like the best PE ratio going forwards in the world, let alone NZX. I've been hoping that everyone selling at 1.8c just hasn't run the numbers, or plan to buy back right before it rockets up. They make me feel like I'm missing something REALLY REALLY obvious, and that either my FOMO or the sunk cost fallacy are going to do a Brutus to my savings.
Disc: all in NTL, bought in at an average of 2.45c. Did swap some for ATM earlier, but swapped back in a nick of time before that too dropped -.-
Perhaps one thorn in the calcs is the estimated costs per tonne. While around $700/tonne might be right if they were trucking unconcentrated ore from the site, by the time you extract a larger amount of ore and then concentrate it, I expect the cost per trucked (concentrated) tonne will be higher. Either that, or I am tying myself in knots.
Edit: Another way or putting it. $700/tonne might be about right for trucked ore with 10g/tonne, but ore with 100g/tonne has a lot more pre-work done to achieve that (extracting a larger volume and concentrating).
I am thinking out loud with this, but yes transport cost per ounce of gold retrieved is less. But I think the overall cost per tonne of concentrated ore containing 100g/tonne is higher as follows:
Normal ore total cost per tonne: Cost to extract one tonne. Plus cost to transport one tonne. Plus a share of the overheads.
Concentrated ore total cost for tonne: Cost to extract several tonnes (definitely a higher cost), Plus concentration costs (extra cost). Plus cost to transport one tonne (same). Plus a share of overheads (maybe higher per tonne, not sure?)
Oh, that makes sense. I'm new to mining industries, so I don't know whether the savings in transport and final refinery costs (less ore / oz = less cost / oz to refine I guess) are enough to cancel out the expense of running the concentrator. At a guess of +/-$100/tonne, assuming $700 would be the cost without a concentratior, gives a +/- to my profit estimates of 9%.
Still a happy camper either way.
Quarterly report was released just over half an hour ago:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...602/273711.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...601/273710.pdf
Nothing exciting to me. They did state the 2013 prefeasibility study (using dated concentrations, might I add) providing an EPS of 0.165. An attractive figure, and higher ore concentrations and the acquisition of ore concentrators indicate that it's an under-estimate. Cash in the bank is enough for at least 2 years, but by that time gold will be coming out and cash flows will be the last of our worries.
Seems like everyone must be impatient: ~3.5M sold at 1.6c after the report was released, taking out a large chunk of the bidders. Someone read it very quickly considering 900k was sold 1 minute before the NZX release :eek2:.
I wasn't expecting anything spectacular from this quarterly. That will come with the updated prefeasibility study, the grade results and the concentrator installation. Still, good progress being made on budget.
I like the bit about the gold bearing ore being stock piled. Instant cashflow once they decide on how they want to treat/sell it :t_up:
Just had the rest of my order filled at 1.4. Can't believe my luck.
Currently trying to move some money around to top up, this is getting back to levels before resource upgrades.
Sorry was referring to the further upgrades after the initial bump in sp
Cmon guys we need the signed offtake refining agreement or the installation of the concentrator! There must be a good pile of ore ready to send out.
You must remember how NZ works, we have 4 weeks over Christmas where nothing happens, workers and tradesman literally disappear, this isn't the United States.
Then you have a whole bunch of public holidays and Easter, NZ gets off to a very slow productivity start each year.
My development projects in property certainly work that way.
These things do take time unfortunately and I wouldn't be expecting good new of what they are accomplishing for quite a few months.
Despite earlier telling myself I had enough I couldn't help it yesterday and topped up with another 150k shares @ 1.5.
I agree that productivity in NZ between mid-December and January is non existant. Still, it can't be long now for some of the results and decisions about concentrators and processors.
More importantly whats your average entry price per share guys? Some smart cookies got in at re $0.005 cents or 002 or? Much greater risk averaging in now, just hope a processor for the ore is sorted soon, why is it taking so long? Not holding.
I'm in 2nd to last as well. Hoping for some good news soon
I averaged in at .012 and sold at .025 - .029 and got back in at .02 so I am still up.
2nd to last also
2nd to last, average 0.006. Slowly dragging that up...
Second to last bracket... but almost the last...! Average under 1c
Second to last at a average of 1.03. Will not be buying any more as this is still a bit of a punt. It seems to be a very promising investment but the unexpected can happen. I hope all of us risk takers do very well out of it. I look forward to a Porsche or a Tesla Roadster sitting in my garage.
Well ,last or second to last is usually the bottom end , but i asume you mean the top end. :cool: As for me , i bought at .006 and sold 3/4 at .027 , started off with 2mil now have 500k . Buying E road at the mo. Im not really sure where this is going.......
Had a great cycle ride through the tunnel last week . Awesome place
Yes must do that cycle ride as well on the E Bike - a great way to move around - went from Ngaruawahia to Hamilton and back along the River Trail last Saturday very easily and enjoyed the scenery as well as the cricket on Sunday. Put me in the last bracket patiently waiting for breaking news! Averaging 0.009 having been accumulating from the Heritage Gold days.
Great strategy Yoda, 450% up , then take most of the money off the table and leave the rest free carried. Your risk has been minimalised. Hereon the risk is to the upside until/if they execute extraction and processing successfully and there is no certainty there. Being free carried like Yoda and anyone else is the smart play imo but depends on your own risk/reward situ. Make money dont lose it( like i just have with "safe" CBL:(
Oz going off this afternoon with a late flurry of buying. Both exchanges now 1.5. Makes NZ lookcheap
well actually not that interesting...looking at the depth it appears one person has bought a fair chunnk on the ASX and the NZX has done some old fashioned copying what the Aussies do in the last few minutes before NZx market close
Promised update by the first Q of 2018. Less than 2 weeks
Excellent news.
Had a peak today
Where on earth has that massive block of sellers gone ?????????
Is something going on that we don't know about.
Looks like some people could possibly be in the know ?
Quite possible that they just realized it won't get sold at this rate and decided to wait for an announcement, or their orders expired.
The shares will become more liquid when the gold starts pouring out of the mine and into our pockets. The price will beat the 3.1c historical high shortly after that anyway.
I see someone has a bunch of shares for sale at 7.5c
I love it :)
I might put some of mine on at 9c and hope the news is good.
Not a lot of shares for sale at low levels if a rush, GOLD RUSH, happens
Could be more singing of 'Gold Fever' on this thread soon :)
I followed their lead ...now bout 4mill up at 8c .
I love the optimism...and then there is a bit of a sell off...Let's hope they don't know something😁.
OZ up 0.4 already and trading at 1.7 AUD
For a bit more serious analysis of what this latest announcement means for NTL...
Several of the barriers being raised by protestors and doubters have just been removed.
Some were questioning who was going to process the ore? Answer...NTL themselves...on site and with no nasty chemicals. No need to cart the ore out, saving cost to the company and disruption to the locals.
This should make the cost per oz considerably lower than having to cart ore down the road for treatment and make it even harder for the "environmental" protestors to string any sort of coherent argument together.
Todays announcement proves my point on Monday doesn't it
The news was leaking out that good news was on the horizon and magically all that big massive block of sellers from 1.6 to 2.8 crumbled to dust.
Now a serious buyers has to take price to 2.8c if they want to put in a reasonable amount of dosh.
Don't tell me insider trader doesn't exist.
I am going to now put a couple of Million shares in at 9c in case a gold rush on the limited supply of shares happens.
Rest I am going to hold long term now its all go !!!!!!
Who is this Blueman you refer to ??
I am ..... "Bluemanarc"
Havent you heard of The Bluemanarc ???
Though - bluemangroup - if it were true inside trading wouldn't we have seen massive buying prior to announcement rather than disappearance of high value sell orders?
People Steadily chipping away at the .018c this afternoon .. I remember my family saying they saw the news in the uk re the mine last year, but they are all asleep just now. When they wake maybe we will see it rise a bit more,and settle back . I see the council is building a new walkway across the river. Shame really, The kids enjoy the swing bridge. Keep the tourists happy, and keep digging underground (what was that song by the Bee Gees? )
Totally mystifies me on why people would sell these at 1.8c. After a market update like that I would have thought a bit of optimism would be justified.
Someone didn't get the memo, and also doesn't keep a very good eye on the rising gold price.
Someone just bought $238 dollars of shares at .17c
Why would you do that
why not? Maybe it was an old party filled order sitting at 1.5 or 1.4 and they just wanted to fill the balance of 14k? Or it was a school kid with not much more money? I know when I was young I used to buy the odd very small $ amount just to have some exposure. But I am guessing its the first example...
I just thought the brokerage fee no matter how you buy it, will add too much cost to that.
But yep I see the reasoning now.
I just prefer to deal in 20k lots to keep it simple.
Think its pretty cool to have shares in a gold mine, but also now, we find this is a Green Gold Mine, very cool, maybe worthy of an article or two.
You couldn't have sold much at 1.8 and you certainly cant buy much up to 1.8 either.
Hard to track real value of share at such low buy and sell levels, I mean, 5k or 10k a day ??
When news ramps up, lets see where 50k or 100k per day leads us.
Some NTL news yesterday on ASX, seems to have flown under the radar of those who only follow NZX
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201804...fsdcpgg9rf.pdf
They just extracted less than 100 dollars worth of gold, and made a stock market release about it. I don't think there's about it that could fly over the radar with this one. Might be a long wait for more news for those who believe the HG... I mean NTL story.
GLTA
the 4 highest ore grades in the world for underground mines are 44gms per ton...22.1.......22....and 16 so as we see dubbo slots in at number two....this is no small high light....remember one bore hole shows over 600 grms per ton of rock.....be patient...it won't happen over night but it will happen
I thought the ASX release was just notifying that a table had been appended to the market release of a few weeks back.
And that the entire release was about the results of processing testwork. Now they know the best (recovery rate and environmental impact) method to process ore, based on that small sample.
But I guess some people can't read further than one bullet point.
... and dont forget that after the Grinding there was the Knelson Centrifugal Concentrator.
Then a bit of single stage floation and we are talking 94% recoveries.
With inert tailings!
Lets get political, with the recent kerfuffle around the govt announcement to can oil/gas exploration offshore, do you think the risk of the greens pushing for something similar with mineral extraction has increased?
I don't think it will happen given it's not on the same climate change scale contributor as oil/gas extraction it has been something the Green party has discussed in the past, especially as there was no industry consultation before this announcement just talk of some sort of transition. I mean to give them the benefit of the doubt turning off the switch is technically a transition of sorts, albeit a rather immediate one.
Take this key point from the NZ herald: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=12030723
Attachment 9619
They're just not going to hand out any more oil/gas permits; existing ones aren't being revoked. Since NTL already has mining permits to it's existing sites, nothing changes in the short to mid term range for us.
Though if your worries are correct and they ban future mineral exploration permits, I imagine that NTL would just seek further exploration options in other countries.
They will likely do this as well, but existing licenses are safe. It would be very costly to cancel rather than just easily say no more.
Will there be a quarterly this Friday? What impact (if any) do we expect it to have on the share price?
Bit of movement in shares today..does someone know something and is selling or does someone know something and is buying?
your "guess" is as good as mine :-). ill still take any opportunity to buy at a discount for the long haul
Looking forward to reading the Quarterly. Hopefully it will give a good detailed briefing and not just a rehash of previous updates. It would be nice to read
a. tenders/orders have been placed for extraction/concentration equipment
b. Rahu results or at least a timetable for them
c. release or imminent release of the updated prefeasibility study. The costs per oz should have reduced considerably
Going on past trends we should see the quarterly tomorrow, most likely in the afternoon.
I'm looking forward to a good read.
Well I'm secretly hoping that the reason they didn't release the quarterly on Friday is because they want to do it on Monday for full effect - as opposed to burying it late on a Friday afternoon.
I'm expected a more 'everything still in progress' report now that its coming out on the final day. Good news tends to come early.
40g/t confirmed! :t_up:
"...shortly import the equipment necessary....which allows us to be self sufficient in the metallurgical route taken for our ore"
Well, that quarterly report was a non-event judging by the NZX price. Totally at a loss as to why, when I could only read positive updates and progress from it.
These guys have pissed round for so long that the price won't change until they have extracted gold and are in full production. Even then it will probably take 2 quarters before anyone believes it.
Having said that, green chemistry and leaving tailings inside means max output and no noise from the ecohippies.
I get the feeling that when the gold actually starts flowing, the fat lady will indeed sing her high C# and there will be smiles all around.
Ecohippies, mister, are doing the job of keeping the planet pleasant for you. Some of them even own a bit of NTL (just keeping an eye on things). I'm happy with those developments, for the same reasons.