My bad. I did indeed.
Also, by summary stats I meant the matrix containing the bid/ask/PE ratio etc. It looks like the summary stats output in excel so I've taken to calling it that. It completely escaped me that no one else does :p
Printable View
Back to 100 again
Only 6 weeks to the Annual Shareholders Meeting
Upgraded guidance then .... and the standing ovation from happy shareholders
Doubt we will get to hear much beforehand, but then again good announcements just before an ASM are quite common
Shareprice well over 110 by then?
You should come along and help quaff some of their fine refreshments :D
Well well a close at 101. Not surprising really
A pretty solid day as well. The price didn't fall once.
Is this essentially a new HIGH then, allowing for the recent dividend?
Makes a mockery of the broker targets eh, must be some new reports coming out now. Methinks they haven't done their sums right.
When will they publish the book with the pretty pictures Percy? Might even mention diversity.
Yes this has been quite a remarkable increase in the last couple of weeks. All during which no real new financial information has come to hand.
The purchase of Sentinel and HarMoney got a lot of media coverage and Heartland has noticeably increased advertising on both radio and TV since then as well as Jeff giving interviews suggesting further acquisitions are being considered. I think this has really put Heartland on the radar screens of investors, a place they had limited exposure to before. So the market has finally woken up to what great value HNZ was and still is :t_up:
Roger I would have loved to come to the AGM with you but am traveling overseas tomorrow. Want to be offshore just in case the election goes the wrong way :scared:
I trust you to keep our Percy in check at the meeting and suggest you use some of your HNZ, AIR & GMT divies to buy him (and others) a beer. I would hate to see Percy pushed into having to take a HER loan (house gone) to buy you young fellas a beer and possibly even contact HarMoney (HNZ shares gone) to keep it going into the wee hours of the morning :)
Look forward to your "steady as she goes report" !!
Hey Iceman,
Mate sadly I think the moths will have to stay in my wallet as rumour has it HNZ are good for their own quality refreshments, especially at annual meetings on a Friday afternoon :)
I'm glad I had a good look at the relative PE's of those Aussie banks including regional ones and whilst acknowledging they're all bigger sometimes smaller and growing fast can be a good thing.
In terms of value I remain with a view a PE of 12 is good value and appropriate which based on the mid point of the forecasted profit range gives fair value as $1.12 (12 x 9.3 eps), so there's still room for 10% price appreciation over the next year as well as circa 10% gross in divvy's (20% gross return). Then there's always the possibility of acquisition's being EPS accretive or the Harmony one already done adding to previously forecasted EPS so the risk is definitely to the upside with my intrinsic valuation. Got to do something constructive with all those divvy's and a National win just around the corner. Maybe that reinvestment plan you suggested isn't such a bad idea after all :)
Still going up .... good one
Aussie banks took a thrashing today ....hope the gloom and doom stays over there
Still planning on 130 at least this time next year
Yeap overall its good to see a good stable political platform that should provide a positive environment for corporate growth.
I'm a little underwhelmed by the market's reaction today but given the Nat's were short priced favourites the market by close seems to have taken the near certainty of the election result in its stride and its a marathon not a sprint.
There's good opportunities for people to put cash to work and this is definitely one of best of them, one of the few companies on the NZX with sound growth prospects a great dividend yield and trading on a very reasonable price earnings ratio. We are well positioned :)
Closed tonight at $1.04 [ex 3.5cents div last week].
I am very pleasantly surprised,as I thought the share price may have got ahead of itself.
Maybe the modest PE and increasing fully imputed divie are attracting more investors?
Do you think we can look forward to a new round of broker targets?
If the broker / analysts are doing a quarter decent job there will be a new round of targets
The analysts have been wimps to date
They sometime forget that their role (along with insto shareholders) is to set HNZ a target which will stretch them a bit. Analysts et all have been too soft on HNZ to date - they need to get a bit more demanding to make sure HNZ deliver what they are capable off.
Shouldn't worry HNZ - they have plenty of petrol in the tank. The guidance of $42-$45m is just a start, hell they made that number up zonks ago didn't they
The believers and devoted followers already know this good stuff but it will give you the warm fuzzies anyway
http://www.kpmg.com/NZ/en/IssuesAndI...-June-2014.pdf
Main point is look at some June Qtr ratios v the trend (esp MIM and expenses) and ask yourself how the heck can HNZ come up with a $42m guidance number for FY15. They must think we are stupid and the broker analyst have fallen for it as well.
Practice your standing ovation at the ASM Roger - it needs to be a rousing one
Thanks for the link Winner69.
I look forward to finding time to read the article properly later today.On a quick skim through I am very pleasantly surprised at how quickly Heartland have achieved such good ratios amongst their peers.The interest rate margin stood out.
Future projections are "interesting" and I look forward to Heartland's update at the agm,and brokers updates,?!
However what makes me really confident, is the fact Heartland is proving what a fine ,well managed,well funded business it is.Future growth,with growing dividends has been assured by the very sound solid foundations Heartland put in place.
Yes indeed
Reading between the lines of HNZ presentations and reports and public statements those June quarter numbers just show that currently there is real earnings momentum embedded in HNZ. That momentum is not reflected in a guidance figure of $42m
Broker / Analysts need to do a better job in keeping HNZ honest. I posted something along those lines last might but it was suggested / advised by someone to delete the post so I did. Strange world we live in.
For those that don't have the time or inclination to read the full report what is extremely impressive is that the interest rate margin for the June 2014 quarter was 4.94% up from 4.45% in the previous quarter and 4.27% in the previous corresponding period. This is a key leading indicator for the current years profit.
HNZ's margins are significantly more than double the entire sector average which was 2.28%.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/3...ne-quarterhtml
Yes NIM very good
You didn't mention the declining cost of doing business.
And this snippet - A notable change from prior quarters is Heartland, who managed to increase their gross loans and advances for the first time since they announced their change in strategy in June 2013, which involved taking their focus away from non-core lending property assets.
Earnings driven by core lending growth, NIM, productivity and the new HEL activity gives more than $42m for FY15
Think I upset an analyst they not doing a good job or maybe it was HNZ who were upset about me thinking they were managing brokers expectations but in interim I withdrew my post of last night. Awaiting a reply from whoever.
I think brokers' analysts do a pretty good job,however I think they have been concentrating on Heartland growing their book too much,rather than Heartland's stated policy of recycling lower yielding loans [ie home mortgages] to more profitable loans [motor vehicles,reverse mortgages etc].
Kpmg's figures prove Heartland's stated policy is being achieved.
Crappy day on the market for HNZ. Market worried about rising delinquencies in the Dairy sector perhaps ?
Since when do 'analysts' have the power to censor someone else's opinion on Sharetrader? That is ridiculous. I may not agree with everything Winner writes on this forum. But his opinions are usually based on doing his homework. If Winner looks at the figures and comes up with a different opinion from the analysts, then so be it. The purpose of a forum is to have an informed discussion on different opinions. Not to 'tow the analyst line.'
Part of the reason that Heartland is growing interest margin is that they are shrinking their existing loan portfolio, even as they grow by acquisition. There is no need to pay top dollar for new deposits because they don't need the money. On the other side of the ledger, Heartland are replacing low margin loans by higher margin loans. So the margin string is extending at both ends. However future trends do not always follow past trends.
Heartland may be touting for increased money from customers in the future, so they may have to rasie deposit rates. I notice that with the exception of SBS bank, Heartland have the most bad debts (still) too. So Heartland needs higher margins just to get the same earnings margin as banks with lower risk lending portfolios. Higher interest margins do not necessarily mean that shareholders will benefit immediately.
SNOOPY
Snoopy you beat me to it,
Not wanting to be doom and gloom as I'm a firm believer but I looked at both those graphs and saw 2x margin of other players but 4x higher impairment/Gross loans ratio and 5.5x higher than the sector average. Now I haven't crunched the numbers to get a feel as to how much of that is related to there legacy property portfolio etc but it would be an interesting one to know; What would there impairment ratio look like exclusive of the portfolio?
Could easily be this risk/reward factor that means the company is a little conservative on there profit announcement.
Thanks for posting Winner
Disc: Hold but have not done anywhere near enough research so don't value my opinion.
Cheers
TG
From a super brief read of that report impairments were only 0.08% of gross loans at extremely low level's so even if their impairments were 4 x higher than other banks, (i.e 0.32%) and all of it was related to current lending, (which it certainly isn't), hardly makes a dent in the extra 2.70% margin HNZ has compared to sector average margin.
I like their business model and as long as they take a nice conservative approach to growth we're all good.
There has been some comment that HNZ would be affected by the downturn in agriculture. I thought it was worth investigating. Their June 14 bank disclosure(pg.47) states 20% of the loan book is in agriculture.
Nice to know 80% of Heartland's loan book is not in agriculture.
Diversification policy is a nice safeguard for us.
The agriculture loan book is very spread between seasonal,livestock and equipment.
We must also remember some agriculture sectors are still doing very well.
What sort of FURTHER exchange rate drop a exports would equate to the 45% auction price deterioration since February? Consequent higher import costs would share the farmer`s burden around within the economy.
Farmers are the most resilient of all business managers and manage things over the cycle.
They know there will be boom years and average years and bad years but handle all the things like milk prices, weather etc that a re thrown at them. Pity many industries are not so resilient,
Milk prices are still pretty high. Even the forecast 2015 payout number is above average. (below)
Heartland shouldn't worry too much
As an aside I see global beef prices are taking off. Good for part of the agriculture sector
I think if I remember correctly the 5 year Fonterra average is just above $6kg so farmers are coming off the back of a record pay-out so should have been prudent enough to be repaying debt and hopefully not out buying new cars for all their family members. Its swings and roundabouts, Beef had a truly exceptional year last year and this one is shaping up even better and Sheep did well too.
Interesting article on CNBC about how Warren Buffett likes banks heaps, I'll post a link later if I get time.
Annual Report didn't have many exciting pictures in it
Diversity obviously don't matter at Heartland (except in the context of lending and borrowing)
Doesn't that little table showing the gender breakdown of the Board and Officers stand out like a sore thumb in complete isolation and and completely out of context. Well they had to put in the report somewhere.
Never mind = lack of response from the Company and this effort gives them one black mark on my scorecard anyway.
HNZ report out today - no update to the forecasts.
But - one of their all-male board is retiring.
Time for HNZ to put an end this male hegemony and do something about their obvious gender diversity problem.
Maybe one of the Pumpkin Patch team could help out?
Just imagine how successful they could have been without this appalling patriarchy.
+1 for more pretty pictures in the annual report, numbers are boring, (opps is an accountant allowed to say that) lol.
All looks good to me and not worried about diversity or lack thereof, the board appears to have heaps of experience. Looking forward to the AGM.
Company is...wait for it Percy...Yes there it is..."well positioned" to meet 2015 guidance of $42-$45m :D
Well I have read the Chairman's and Managing Director's report in the Heartland annual report.
I congratulate them for clear plain English.They set out everything I wanted to know clearly, and simply.
To any one on sharetrader who wants to know more about Heartland,and where they are headed, I recommend they read it for themselves.
Hope the shareprice doesn't go below a $1
Maybe the guru brokers are right after all and it will be 96/97 after Xmas
Bugger
Harmony lent $2m already, rejecting 70-80% of loan applicants
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/72146...ion-first-year
Nice to see plenty of Heartland adverts rolling over on the electronic signage here at the Waikato vs Manawatu game. Ads for invoice & livestock finance as well as working capital and asset finance.
Back to business: Strike price for dividend reinvestment plan: http://www.heartland.co.nz/_upload/n...nouncement.pdf
At this rate wish I had taken dividend in cash
This is not going to plan .....hope it not turning to custard and HNZ being affected by the malaise in the Australia banking stocks.
Unless there's a meaningful discount, (1% is not meaningful), this illustrates why I prefer to be in control of if / when I re-invest the divvy. You could have bought in reasonable volume at $1.00 at the close today.
Like the dog in the Toyota advertisement said when he tried to jump on the ute and landed in the cow shyte, Bugger !!
I have dividend reinvestment,while the wife takes the cash,so have a bob each way.
You win some and you lose some. This time around one could have got slightly cheaper shares by buying on market but that is not always the case. The discount is low as HNZ does not really need the money at present but in my view the DRP is a great hassle free way of slowly and surely adding to my holding in a great
company ! While my faith in the company and management remains at the high level it currently is, the DRP is definitely for me. My paper profit will be looking even better once these new shares will be added. Keep them coming :)
Interesting article on Harmoney's progress on the online NBR today !
A few cents movement in a few days is just noise. If the stock's in a long term uptrend (and why else would you hold it?) on average, you're going to be better off taking the discount, however small, and saving the brokerage.
Unless you have the gift of knowing which way the price is going.
Has anyone received their dividend reinvestment statement? I may be mistaken but I thought today was the day?
EDIT: Email has come through, close of business!
They are available on the Link website www.linkmarketservices.co.nz
My dividend reinvestment shares are showing on my link holding statement,and wife's dividend is showing up in her bank account.
So all is good.!
When all else fails just put it back into the company's it came from, both of which are excellent high divvy payers so even if you get no capital growth an average gross divvy yield of about 13% for those two is far better than 3% in a call account or you could buy say Genesis with a 11.5% gross divvy yield for some diversification
Still good opportunities in a sideways market. I still like GMT at $1.07 paying a fully taxed PIE return of 6% net which is 9% gross for anyone on a 33% tax rate. Shares don't have to go up for shareholders to get satisfactory returns :)
LOL LOL Much egg on face and one must always remember to laugh at oneself from time to time.
You can keep your $2 mate as I was wondering why my HNZ divvy didn;t come through to my account yesterday and then I got my electronic notification by e.mail and it appears I have forgotten that I did sign up for the divvy reinvestment scheme but have forgotten. LOL I suppose you're entitled to the odd forgetful matter as you get older :D Upside is I have more HNZ shares now.
HNZ seems to have heavier volume today. Percy and Roger, you two stocking up for Christmas?
The last time it had decent volume was in beg Sep after which it climbed from the 93-95 range to the $1 range. The big volume day before that was in early July when it left the 85-90 range. An early Christmas present coming for us holders?
Guilty as charged, I did buy some more this morning :)
No, I have not brought any more for awhile,although I did get more via dividend reinvestment .
Am looking forward to reading the agm presentation on 31st of this month.
Could say, I am holding myself at the ready for breaking news!!
I looked earlier today, and noted solid depth on both the buy and sell, which I think is positive.
Roger's buying may be the buy signal, the market has been waiting for, to confirm the share price upward trajectory !!!! lol.
Pretty crap article but only wish some NZ guru would come up with a headline like this
Seize the day, buy banks, fund manager says
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/busi...15-11662e.html
HNZ needs all the help it can get as it slowly drifts down a slippery slope
C'mon - spread the word ......SEIZE THE DAY, BUY HEARTLAND
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/busi...15-11662e.html
Received my first payment from Harmoney - the system works, good return as well.
Roger, not many sleeps to go now until the big day Friday next week
Wonder what was this slide will look like this year
A standing ovation will be necessary after you read the heading
Pathway to Forecast Range of $47m-$49m FY15
I have my version already to compare
Be a BIG disappointment if Jeff's slide doesn't look like mine
W69. Realistically mate I am sure you would quietly agree its too early in the 2015 FY for any possibility of a forecast upgrade.
Last Feb it was $42m-$44m. Stretched to $42m-$45m in August. Big deal eh
If they don't say something more positive next week they are having us all on ...or things aren't going to plan (to the hidden secret plan that is)
Going to be a boring meeting by what punter want. I aiming to be on way to the big day at Flemington instead if things turn out as I hope.
Why all these constant questions going back and forth ??
Either you have DYOR.. Or You have not !!...
Disc. Holding and building..
I reckon they'll know how the first quarter has gone by Friday next week. Its too early in the year to start speculating on a possible 2015 upgrade. Just let some more water flow under the bridge mate.
Chief risk office resigns today after a 4 year term. This messes with my head a bit because normally if its an amicable parting of the ways there's an agreement by the incumbent senior exec to stay on until a replacement is found.
Its what is not said in the NZX announcement that causes some grounds for concern and backs up my gut feel that the way HNZ is moving is more towards the consumer finance end of the risk spectrum which isn't where I feel especially comfortable after almost every man, his dog and his cat lost a great deal of money in this sector as a result of literally dozens of finance companies collapsing during the GFC.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d...ew-zealandhtml
Stock appears to have become stuck in the current 99-100 rut lately. Thoughts ???
Resignation of Chief Risk Officer
12:13pm, 24 Oct 2014 | OFFICE
NZX Release
24 October 2014
Resignation of Chief Risk Officer
Heartland New Zealand Limited (NZX: HNZ) advises that Chief Risk Officer (CRO) Mark Mountcastle has resigned but will remain with Heartland until 30 November 2014.
Mark Mountcastle has been CRO at Heartland since July 2010. Jeff Greenslade, Heartland’s Chief Executive Officer, said that during his time at Heartland Mark has made a significant contribution and has created a strong risk culture within the organisation.
Heartland has commenced a recruitment process for a new Chief Risk Officer and expects to announce a successor to Mr Mountcastle shortly. In the meantime, Chief Financial Officer, Simon Owen, has been appointed Acting Chief Risk Officer.
-Ends-
For additional information contact:
Jeff Greenslade
Chief Executive Officer
Heartland New Zealand Limited
DDI 09 927 9149
M 021 563 593
Mark Mountcasle is only leaving at the end of November 14 (5 weeks away), and HNZ seems comfortable with a temporary fix, the CFO will will be the Acting Chief Risk Officer.
At least he wasn't fired
I am thinking I got it all wrong with HNZ and in spite of all the nice slides and good stories maybe the good times are coming to an end and things are going to be a struggle from here on.
Talk of financial engineering to increase ROE and your comments re risk don't give me the warm fuzzies.
I need mor than nice slides and rhetoric next Friday to be comfortable ....I need some real stuff ....a 'we are comfortable with our $42m to $45m guidance' just won't cut it. That would be bad news and confirm that things are tougher than last year
Having done an excellent job at Heartland, Mark has most probably moved to a bigger better job.
We lost Craig Stephen to a big position with Tainui about a year ago.
Heartland will look good on anybody's CV.
Normal coming and going to me.
What is important is the fact Jeff Greenslade has been able to attract the people he wants.
I am sorry I will not be able to attend the agm next Friday,however I am confident I will be able to read the presentations,and look forward to sharetraders'reports of the meeting.
I am a very contented shareholder,over joyed with the progress the company has made,and feel sure Heartland have a big contribution to
make to NZ's future, by providing heartland NZ with excellent banking services.
There's a button in edit for delete's mate. You've got to hit delete and then click on the little square box to the left of the page that also says delete.
W69 - My B.S. metre is now on switched on and tuned to maximum sensitivity. They didn't need this just before the ASM. With timing like this (I do not believe in coincidences), I can't help my mind wandering and wondering if the executive in question isn't trying to telegraph a message to shareholders ? OTOH maybe I'm reading too much into this... at the moment I seem to be sniffing risk with a higher degree of sensitivity than a beagle dog at the airport, maybe I should apply for the job lol.