Missing the XRO train...um...all I have to say is this lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esjec0JWEXU
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Missing the XRO train...um...all I have to say is this lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esjec0JWEXU
Jeez ...this in the NBR sounds ominous ....using the word questionable ...ouch
Must try to get a copy
Ryman’s middle age spread
The retirement village company’s underlying earnings and growth assumptions look increasingly questionable.
Good click bait headline that one. Thing is they keep saying their target is 15% underlying earnings growth which ostensibly almost exactly doubles underlying earnings every 5 years but they keep undershooting that 15% now more than once. They are starting to really underperform this sector but are priced at roughly double the underlying PE of SUM companies which have a well proven track record over many many years of growing MUCH faster.
No wonder they use the word "questionable"...I've been saying the same thing and questioning their valuation for a very, very long time.
Short Ryman / Long SUM a really great strategy to eliminate sector risk.
Does this disclosure mean that Andrew Mitchell no longer works at a Ryman and has cashed in $2.6m of his bonuses
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...718/301292.pdf
Craig’s did a little piece on Ryman
https://craigsip.com/insights/overvi...n%20healthcare
In our view RYM is the best fit in the sector, with a high quality portfolio, a proven track record and more defensive continuum of care model.
True, however I think what then happens to those who can't get that well informed and have no other option to rely on what the broker recommends. I'm not sure they are a lot though still people who their work and family doesn't give much time to read makes me think about.
Nearly a month on. $12.65 close today.
A good 9% increase in share price within a month...
Current SUM $5.55 vs RYM $12.65. That theory should swing into effect soon.
Disc. Not holding RYM, holding SUM & OCA (wish I didn't fold in 2009 with my RYM, Lessons learned)
NZSA on RYM....."cashflow negative."
"If the property market stays flat or declines this will impact reported profit in future years. Investors need to look past these headline numbers and consider the underlying operating profit and cash generation of the business as these determine its viability. The accounts show revenue excluding revaluations less total expenses was a much more modest $33m. With its intensive growth, RYM is overall cashflow negative meaning that additional debt is required each year. However, the growing asset base is very large and easily supports this at present."
NZSA here to read the full article (you need to be a member)
(Disc - don't hold)
Hi Left field and thanks for your post. I am skeptical of the NZSA statement... it's a bit simplistic and uses a snapshot approach I believe, which doesn't take the passage of time into account. They do qualify it a bit referring to growth, however I attempt to add some context below:
RYM raised NZ$25 million at their IPO in 1999
Since that float, there has been zero fresh capital injected and they have paid out over NZ$800 million in dividends
Their cash receipts for the Financial Year Ending 31Mar2019 total over NZ$1 billion
Ryman's model of recycling capital hasn't changed.
Given the above, the NZSA's statement doesn't really stack up.
However, if the NZSA is accurate that "RYM is overall cashflow negative...", I am not the slightest bit worried as it is an essential ingredient to achieve growth.
i.e. If RYM stopped growing, you can be rest assured overall cashflow will not be negative.
There is an enormous undersupply of independent, assisted, and close-care retirement facilities in New Zealand and Victoria as we move into the next decade and beyond.
If all the retirement players (including the NZ and Victorian government) build as many as they can as fast as they can in these two localities, they still have no chance of keeping up with the aging demographics. No chance.
Ryman (and their competitors) continued growth will help me achieve:
1. As a New Zealand citizen, finding a retirement unit or care bed when the time comes.
2. As a current shareholder, affording it.
Attachment 10673
Attachment 10675
Attachment 10674
Attachment 10672
Marked up pie chart from below. Time for the naughty corner Ryman. :D
Attachment 10676
Vaygor - I love it when you get grumpy
That was a very good post
No doubt you are not worried about the ballooning debt that’s taken leverage to over 66%
Parcel of almost 3-million moved this morning @ $12.73
In Aussie things getting tough for this sector, note the last two sentences.
"The sad facts are that the retirement industry is presently facing a perfect storm where public opinion is at an all time low (the Earl Haven Retirement Village fiasco on the Gold Coast hasn't helped) at a time when Federal and State Governments are under the pump to protect the elderly with legislation. Witness the new legislation where operators are required to compulsorily reacquire ILU's even if a re-sale has not been enacted. The additional capital required to run the DMF model is growing hugely." H/C
Anyone else having an issue loading the Ryman AGM stream? Can see slide but black space from venue and no sound. No connectivity issues this end. Not a great look!
Oh there we go...10 mins in.
Thanks Gecko,
I'm enjoying the live streaming now...
Cheers,
limmy
Apologies if already posted but found this just now whilst browsing around.What a great App.
Ryman Healthcare technology wins top international award
An excellent presentation by Ryman CE, Gordon MacLeod, at today's NZ Shareholders Assn conference in Christchurch.
One of the charts he displayed on the screen showed the astronomical forecast growth in the over 80's population over the coming years. I can't recall the actual numbers but I doubt that RYM, SUM, OCA, ARV MET combined will have a hope in hell of dealing with the opportunity.
Interestingly, Gordon referred to the title of this thread, and said boring is good. They spend every day focused on doing the best for their residents and staff and basically, everything else falls into place.
PS. The NZSA is doing sterling work to support and protect the interests of retail investors. It costs $145 pa to belong - and Past president John Hawkins said, provided you have some income from share dividends you can probably claim the fee in your tax return. (This is not tax advice.) If you're not a member, please give consideration to joining. https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/
This from 2 days ago. The Ausralian Financial Review.
For Melbourne and Sydney, House price growth 'close to boom times'.
Link...
https://www.afr.com/property/residen...0190930-p52wda
C’mon folks - have to move with the times and if old nice buildings have to be knocked down sobeit
Like this bit from Ryman -
The village operator also thought it was a nice quirk of history that the site built for the education of baby boomers in the 1960s was now being converted into a different use for them in the next phase of this site’s history.
http://wellington.scoop.co.nz/?p=123373
On other threads posted by Beagle. Applies to RYM as well
Quote:
Real estate going gangbusters in the regions and doing okay in Auckland too https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Defaul...ber%202019.pdf
SUM very well positioned with the widespread geographical locations of their villages. Hawkes Bay for instance up nearly 17% and Nelson up 11%.
National Medium up a whopping 8.2%.
No wonder RBNZ stayed on hold yesterday...(probably had early access to these very strong statistics)
Quite devastating report on Radio NZ about Ryman throwing out a resident in need due to lack of space in their care department:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018722653
Evicting a resident of six years on Christmas eve and dumping her into the public hospital. Apparently they just discovered that day that the lady needs now hospital level care and that their own care facility is full and that they can't accomodate for her. How convenient - for the rest home.
Nice Christmas prezzy as well. I am wondering whether they just forgot to put something else into her stockings?
And Ryman is supposed to be the gold standard of retirement care? Really?
Not much you can do if she needs medical attention and they are full. Cant build more beds overnight - if anything it shows how good an investment this sector is becoming
All these companies have stories like this(Yes SUM is very much included) most unknown to the public or shareholders. On the whole RYM is top notch but of course as you grow bigger theres more scope for things to go wrong and as you have said its predominantly about the staff and it only takes one rogue element to do damage.
Very true mate. When Dad was first admitted the dementia centre manager was very good as she knew my father from his days in his working career and he was well looked after. Later after that care centre manager was headhunted by a competitor things went downhill very quickly.
Do people still find somewhere to ‘put’ Gran like a hospital at Xmas so they can go on holiday?
I am sure you are right - but it is the way the company deals with these unfortunate events afterwards. Sounds like the relatives of the lady who was the victím of Ryman's poor care had to go through the full complaints process to get sort of an apology from Ryman. Ryman clearly was not interested to put it right. No attempt to find somewhere else a spot - and no explanation why the need for the eviction was discovered so suddenly and unexpected the day before Christmas. I would think that an experienced operator can prepare and manage worsening conditions and talk in time with everybody involved and offer them alternative solutions. Quite poor form I would think.
And yes, everybody can make mistakes, but if they don't even bother to put it right afterwards (or only if forced by the tribunal) than I wonder what Ryman's promise is worth ....
I work as a caregiver in a rest home and would say this is not common at all. Sometimes things are also not what they first seem. We had a lovely man come in for respite on Christmas Day a few years ago. We very wrongly jumped to the conclusion that his family had “sent” him. We felt really sorry for him but did our best to make his stay, and Christmas Day a really happy one. He told us some time later (before he died) that his family didn’t want him to come - he made the decision, and organised it, himself, against their wishes, because he wanted them to be able to enjoy their Christmas with their families without the worry of having to care for him. He was absolutely OK with the decision he made for himself. His family were gutted and sad.
We don’t always know the full story - I learned an important lesson.
Thanks for bringing a bit of perspective to this discussion, justakiwi.
:)
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344626
biggest thing for me is how underlying EPS up only a third of what ARV produced...
This is all you need to know
Even more impressive when considering the law of big numbers
Yes, Ryman is boring. Some people like super boring though and I would too if it was on an attractive PE.
At mid point of forecast $257.5m on 500 million shares = forecast underling eps of 51.5 cps. $14.20 places them on a forward PE of 27.6.
This compares to a forward PE of just 10.7 for MET which has been growing underlying earnings on average faster over the last 5 years and it trades on a PEG ratio of just 0.7.
No wonder someone is trying to take over MET and leaving RYM and others in the sector alone.
Did you sign up for one of those make $1,000's per month from the comfort of your own home schemes?
'Simply troll, sorry post, this text into every thread on every discussion board, news item comment and message your soon to be ex-friends.
'B, an accountant from West Auckland, eats a better brand of dog-food copy and pasting this one sentence 10,000 times per day'.
Nice reading but this giant is slowing down compared to the others. I am not totally convinced the Theory of Couta will go on much longer:)
Comparisons within a sector are inevitable, some animals need to wake up, smell the coffee, get over themselves and realise that.
Ryman should really start using log scale charts to show their unrenlenting progress to world domination.
Things look pretty good to those of us who read all the details.
Disc: do not hold
This is the exciting stuff for me:
“The team exchanged a record 260 new sales, resales and care contracts in the first half in Victoria. We are interacting with more people than ever and there is no doubt our brand awareness is growing."
We have recently submitted our tenth development application in Victoria. Five development approvals have been granted already, and Ryman continues to target having five villages open by the end of 2020 calendar year.
Aussie property prices rebounding strongly.
Westpac say - Melbourne recorded a 2.2% rise following a 2.3% gain in Oct that was the strongest since 2009. Having come through a milder price correction, the gains mean Melbourne prices are now only 3.7% below their late 2017 peak.
RYM share price nearly hit $16 today
Pretty amazing eh
But then Ryman is the gold standard of the sector and globally well respected
VWAP is $15.63 and half of that is $7.82...SUM currently a bit cheap eh :)
RYM closed at $16.14 therefore "The Gold Standard" says SUM is worth $8.07. SUM is cheap !!
Whatever happens there will be something to bark about :lol:
Let's not assume that RYM will automatically lift all the also-rans.
Disc: I hold em all now!
:)
Such a stellar run the last few months - odds on a share split in the new year? >50% surely?
Wow RYM took a big 87c dump yesterday matched most of Aus I suppose ..........
Staff appointment reinforces something macduffy said on another thread
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...209/315359.pdf
Seems to have earned 70,000 shares over the years for his good work and loyalty
Ryman looking after all stakeholders good to see
Very odd. RYM shareprice gained 4.1% today while SUM other lost a cent. Must be that mysterious ratio doing its thing again.
;)
Punters love this stock, take a look at the daily quote chart, just shoots up all of a sudden and at random.
Lady in a Ryman village says her village in lockdown with security on gate.
She’s going to ‘escape’ next weekend to go granddaughters wedding,
She was radio just now
That's a worry and could signal another major leg down tomorrow.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12316900
3 Craigs analysts issued a concerning report today highlighting how demand in the entire sector could be seriously affected if even one village was infected. Effectivly the reputation of the entire sector is on the line.
They noted concerns for the debt levels and growth in development plans of all operators but noted RYM's debt level was the highest at 39.6% !
Pretty gloomy reading. As we've discussed many times on the SUM thread, an excess of supply over demand is already a major factor for the entire industry. Most concerning is that ALL sector participants are further ramping up their level of unit development, some to quite a considerable degree.
We could be on the cusp of a major leg downwards in demand right at a time when all in the sector are dramatically ramping up supply.
I think its a good sector to avoid in the short term.
Elderly planning to move to villages could also decline rapidly, on account of them being dead. Hopefully will not happen but if we see Italy type numbers we would lose enough to make a big dent in future demand. Sounds awful, but it is quite possible the way things are going
More concerning is the perception that the elderly are safer staying in their own homes now. Its all about perception. It doesn't matter whether they are in fact, safer or not. Demand will fall off the face of a cliff if even just a small handful of villages get the virus in them.
The UK is planning to self-isolate its elderly (70+) for an extended period of potentially 4 months (and that the timeframe being mentioned now in a quickly evolving situation).
What are overseas plans like this going to do to peoples thinking and potential unit purchases? It would be difficult to self-isolate these people them when they are still in their own home. It would be quite easy if they are in a village - be that a RYM, SUM, MET, ADV or OCA village?
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51895873
Settle down, King! It's not the end of the world, yet.
;)
This is a stock I've admired for so long but haven't been able to get into due to valuation..
Finally its come down to where I would like to see it, so I'm chuffed to pick some up. As Warren Buffet said, when its raining gold outside reach for a bucket and not a thimble.
Where's the value though? Dividend yield still only 2.6% and the share price is double NTA.
It was valued for growth but will there be any growth for a few years?
How will revenue go if property prices fall which now seems likely? No more juicy property re-valuations.
^ Yeah there probably is a reasonable impact to the business with potential losses in property value and reduced demand of people wanting to live in close quarters with others (and obv this would drastically worsen were there to be an outbreak in a retirement home).
I'll prob pick some up in next 6 months but I will be watching TA very closely before doing so
The more people die earlier in those villages, the more profit the operators make
Not quite true and as well a pretty nasty thing to say.
While it is true that shorter stay times would short term increase the income though earlier DMF payments, it is as well crucial that future clients feel safe and protected in these villages, otherwise the units won't re-sell. A high rate of infected and dying people in these villages would be quite counterproductive in that regard.
Retirement villages must do all it takes to make sure that their residents are better protected than the general population - and I am sure they do.
This is excellence and quick response from RYM.
Covid 19 coronavirus: Ryman Healthcare shutting its doors to visitors to help stop spread of virus.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12318779
Unbelieveable , RYM moved up 30%+ in 1 single day .
Probably an institution dipping their toes. No fundamental change, if anything negative sentiment over the next month.
DCA is the safest way to play this imo wouldn't buy on days like this
May be it has something to do with Morning Stars has a recommendation of a "buy" and valuation at $13?
Crazy gains. very impressive. I was tempted yest but alas, still on the sidelines