Might pay to find out which store your wife brought all her clothes from.?
If it is Glassons, you are "well positioned."
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ARV is the only listed retirement sector stock I dont have an intimate knowledge of or in fact anything but basic knowledge of so I dont comment much about it. As you know very well Mr Market is a fickle beast so price rises and drops over the short term mean diddly squat but having said that I welcome any significant price drop with open arms as I'm always looking to buy more of these beauties at the right price.
Just because one does not post on a thread doesn't mean one is not looking at the company, perhaps for years and/or perhaps in far greater detail than you seem to automatically assume...HLG is down nearly 12% in the space of less than 3 months... given equity markets have gone up at least a few percent, this is quite the under performance, and I would argue far from a blip that is of no need to be concerned as you would allude to (a 17% under performance of NZX 50 from 3 December till today would certainly raise my eyebrows if I was a shareholder!)
I don't want to belt this out again, but I will: past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance, this may or may not apply to HLG
I think that calming cup of tea Beagle suggested would be good, this company has been around 147 yrs with an enviable record of high dividend payments, no debt and a clean balance sheet, I've put my money where my mouth is and are happy to add more to my substantial current holding should the opportunity arise.
it is getting there !
I reckon anything under 5.50 is worth nibbling at.
Edit: Bargain hunters in already
Attachment 11031
To be fair t.j. HLG went ex a 24 cent fully imputed divvy in December so shares are down 7% from the peak. That said, this one has tried to bust through $6.50 a couple of times and failed so maybe that is the peak for the foreseeable future ?
So H1 sales up $8m and profit remains same (or in real terms down $0,7m) ...hmmm
Company was at pains to highlight the material currency difference of both the Kiwi and the Aussie dollars against the US dollar in its NZX releases in December 2019.
Never before have they highlighted how both currencies were materially weaker. In the context of that and the worst drought and bushfires ever in Australia I think its a highly credible result and it highlights just how cautious this companies statements are, when in reality they always seem to manage the challenges very well.
Autumn stock will probably already being in their warehouses so stock procurement not an issue for the coming season and easy enough for their buyers to redirect their buying activities to Bangladesh for the forthcoming Winter season buying program. Very few concerns about supply chain issues, as I think they can adapt quite easily so we can all go back to sleep.
Let's all hope nobody sneezed on clothes or cartons before shipping..................
this is pretty funny , right the way through...
https://youtu.be/wMNpjKMPqsU
Agree...not much thought went into that narrative.
Lol who's the very hopeful punter that wants 5 shares at $2.10? PS-Looking oversold now.
Someone wants out
Cheers Couta - the 27 Mar announcement seems a long way away, the uncertainty helps some of us anyway...
When I was in the game winter indent dates were Feb/April or you miss the bus. If China indents not arrived be a serious problem.
Free fall!!!! Mayday.. mayday... mayday!
Will see it back to $4 ish.
Great work couta...keep buying to hold the SP... appreciate your work...
I need to apologise to Blackpeter ....HLG is a cyclical after all
Sub 4 bucks here we come.
I nabbed some more today also ... if the SP gets anywhere near $4 I'm going to seriously look at what else I can sell to double down. Long term I love the divies on this one.
When China can build a hospital in a week, I don't think it will take that much longer to make a pair of jeans, and get it shipped to NZ.
Disc. Bought a handful today. And in line for more.
hlg have no clothes too sell soon.
Looking seriously oversold now on the technicals.
I'm a fan of the mgmt of HLG but this is a situation where there exceptionally good 'just in time' stock management is going to come back to bite. Hearing more info from commercial connections about how bad China really is and what the flow on effect is going to be. Basically the dock/factory workers just arent going to be there for some time yet (they are predominantly from the regions) and retailers either have stock stuck on wharves or either are going to be in a serious backlog.
At a top level 'how bad is it going to be', the 2nd largest economy in the world is broadly going to stop working for ~3 months...
all the gloom and dismay today without actually checking the price I thought it must have gone down to about 550 or something
Holy crap -just had a look - its in the 520's
Also, they cant just shift supply to Bangladesh.... 1) EVERYONE will be trying to do that and 2) BNG textile industry doesnt have the technical expertise and variety in capability in certain areas that China does. Plus logistics out of BNG can be a pretty big hassle (port facilities are already pretty stretched).
Hallensteins must have plenty of new season tees ...imploring me to buy 2 for 30 bucks
2 tees or 6 shares ...hmmm
Just an observation: MA 400 is at $5.31. Will it hold? Last time it fall through that was December 2018 ... and price went down to something like $4.
Just saying.
So... considering we're 2 months into this Corona virus thing and we all know HLG have this fantastic just in time supply line from China ... surely HLG are not sitting on their hands (which they should now not be doing cos of what we now know about transmitting the virus) and have already taken steps to assure supply from China or somewhere else. What would be great is if they can go that extra step of giving their shareholders reassurance of that rather than leaving us all to wonder or assume.... or sh*t our pants as we watch the SP decline 10% in 5 days!!
Keep up all the negativity guys I'm loving it. PS-Reckon I have moved up a spot on the top 20 holder list today.
Guess you will be renting some HLG shares from Couta1 and shorting them.?
Yeah...NAH. Most of the damage has been done already in my opinion.
Rumour has it he has and is still waiting to hear back from them. Don't suppose anyone has looked at the exchange rate lately. Struggling to hold 63 cents...that's not helpful.
Jeez David Jones going to close heaps of stores ..yesterday read an iconic outfit been in biz 50 years gone broke and 50 stores at risk and an outfit today Collete or something going to close 33 stores
It’s retail catastrophe over the Tasman
Glassons AU didn’t grow profits last year and this year looking real glum
Will they join the long list of NZ companies who regretted trying their luck over the Tasman
Soon..couta got no money left...after buying all the shares to support the sp
Been looking at the chart which looks very ugly. Unfortunately this company has pretty recent form for dropping a whole $1.50 in less than a month. Check out the share price action in December 2018 ! Attachment 11049
$1.50 fall this time from recently formed (looks like a head and shoulders pattern in last six months) right shoulder at $6.00 could see it head down toward $4.50 :eek2:
From a TA point of view a test of long term support at $4 is even possible :eek2: :eek2:
Interesting ABC article on retail closures here.
Take care holders (just saying!)
50% fib retrace already from June19 low $4.00 to Dec 19 high $6.48. DCB or canny buyers?
Attachment 11051
Daily chart, log scale
Bloody awful screen resolution with uploaded pictures, not sure what's going on. A high resolution chart is here
So cool BaaBaa ...I love Fibonacci ...one of few TA things that mimic nature ...and we know about Nature’s Laws eh
Talking of Fibonacci ....put a heap on him Otaki Race 2 today at 1.17pm. ..he’s got great form like winning his last 2 races ...and baabaa’s onen bet ...the stars are aligned.
Interesting, my rudimentary TA now targets a buying support level around $4.80 (drawing a horizontal line which closes 2 triangle formations at that level), but TA should never be used in isolation of course.
eg. I have closed out my large hedging position on the ASX 200 after resistance broken thru at 7145 from Chinese stimulous announcement (expectation & actual responses) plus good US earnings etc. Will try again when the sh** hits the fan in US also and see whether Resistance turns into Support on Monday with ASX 200 as the irrational exhuberance rolls on...The jury is out for me on just how reliable TA is as a tool in general, except in Macro situations I would hope.
Well that's the thing, at least a half a dozen iconic retailers have shut down over the last couple of years yet HLG has proven its resilence and those punters then have to buy elsewhere so good for HLG. The other factor is I wonder how many of those that have gone under have no debt like HLG rather than there just wasn't enough profit in the operation.
Anatomy of a cyclical.
HLG Cyclical - Weekly Bars - 20 Years Data
Bars (weeks between)
Average
High to High 332 352
342Weeks Low to Low 464 386
425Weeks L to H : H to L 344 118 215 171 179 205Weeks
171Average weeks L:H H:L13 years
3.28Average YearsL:H H:L
Attachment 11052
What’s HLG record ....average divie 30 cents over the last 30 years or something .....or was it better than that?
I agree, HLG's strong balance sheet is in its favour. In addition HLG may well be in a position to negotiate better lease/rent deals as other retailers struggle, and let's not forget HLG's growing on-line business. So it's not 'all over rover' for HLG, just warning signals being fired.
Baa Baa's above post on cyclical trends another consideration/warning IMHO.
(Disc - not holding. Watching with interest.)
Went to Glassons today and everything I checked was made in China, hopefully the supply chain isn't too badly disrupted.
Hyperbolic SP drop - >3% so far today and >10% in the last week! Trying to feel good about holding these right now
you need to start reading charts . looking at a 10 yr chart shows it has sold off every time it has got around $6 and quite savagely. maybe supply chain issues are the reason this time or possibly the impact on retail spending the virus will have. do they do uber?
Virus concerns in this market = sell first, ask questions later.
Dang....couta came to rescue..the SP keep up to level. Well done ..couta ..we all are counting on u
Swimming against an outgoing tide is neither fun nor a way to make progress. I sold very shortly after HLG crossed down through the 100 day moving average line.
Its unlikely I will buy back in until at earliest, it breaks back up through the 30 day moving average line. Fundamental's are one thing, technical analysis another.
The most money is to be made when TA and FA are in sync...I refer to this as an incoming tide and even those doing dog paddle can make great progress in such conditions :)