Pretty robust numbers in the monthly report
Things still on track i reckon
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Pretty robust numbers in the monthly report
Things still on track i reckon
Good solid stat's there, load factors about average, expansion of RPK's in line with the rate of robust tourism growth...AIR getting its "fare" share of the strong inbound and outbound tourism growth and yields holding up well considering the dirt cheap cost of oil. As you say Winner, business as usual. Most brokers have their stake in VAH as worth next nothing in their DCF models which average $3.26 so I'd expect a good jump if a sale is announced at market price or above, especially if such announcement comes in tandem with news of a special dividend / share buy-back or both.
BUT... then there's this https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/281175
More decks being built by AIR senior management...as if there core salaries aren't already very rewarding...
These announcements don't really ring any alarm bells for me at all. Usually with an option scheme, the recipient would sell a number of the shares to pay for exercising the options, although they are seliing a little more than that.
I had not read up about the long and short term incentive programs until now. Options don't seem to be part of the package any longer, having been replaced by "performance rights", which are based on the share price beating a 50:50 index of NZX ALL Gross and Bloomberg world airline index. Should be easy enough to beat that index in a good year though (should possibly be higher of NZX and Airline index rather than 50:50 weighting)
Seems interesting that the CEO needs to keep a shareholding equal to 55% of his base salary with other senior execs needing to hold between 40% and 20% of salary depending on seniority.
Reading the stats, load factors down across the board and group wide yields down 5.3%, competition is definitely starting to have an effect. Looks like the cycle has past its peak and we know what that means don't we, still good as a long term divvy hold if you bought in at a good price though.
Good grief - 10000 Amway reps coming fom China to Queenstown
Air NZ involved in making this happen according to man on radio
Wow
Yield was down 1.2% in $N.Z which is the currency they report in. Load factors at 84.5% are strong and running year to date at almost bang on last year's average.
I think yields are also holding up very well keeping in mind fuel is dirt cheap. John Key talking about one million Chinese tourists coming to N.Z. within 5 years, up from 300,000 now. Huge growth coming for other countries too, extra flights to Houston this coming summer to cope with demand, new routes, annualisation of previous routes started part way through the year e.t.c. The PE is under 5 so in my view all known and perceived competition threats are more than adequately priced in.
Yield based on current price is north of 10% and its sustainable for the foreseeable future, see post #5625
Sometimes I find it helpful rather than looking at a single month's operating stat's to zoom out and have a look at the bigger picture and here's what that looks like from a passenger load perspective
Average group wide load factor year to date 84.5%, (same as for the month of March itself). How does this compare to previous total group wide average load factors ?
Total Group load factor in:-
FY15 84.1%
FY14 84.1% (That's not a typo they were the same)
FY13 83.6%
FY12 82.8%
FY11 83.4%
FY10 81.8%
I see nothing to worry about. Business as usual and AIR on track to make a record profit before tax of circa $900 - $1,000 million. AIR management are doing a superb job of matching strongly growing demand with capacity and should be commended for how resilient the business is proving to be in slightly softer economic times. (Performing vastly better than when the economy was humming when Dairy was booming for instance at $8+ kg.)
I hear that average load factors of AIR are the envy of the industry, certainly materially better than QAN.
I see China Eastern have some short term off peak special for $999 return to Europe flying sardine can class. Some American carriers down a bit overnight. Friday late afternoon before a long weekend often a good time to bag a bargain as weak holders and some traders don't want to hold over the long weekend.
Could be a really good day to top up :)
The XAL chart (global airline index) I posted a few days ago seems to now have a topped out rally as it may have a failed resistance breakout (bull trap)..that could hurt the index price in the coming days. AIR has some correlation with XAL...Interesting fact.. AIR failed breakout happened a few days before XAL's.. that's kinda spooky and worrying when taking in consideration AIR's drop this morning...Still no TA damage at 2.83 apart from a short term support break..
Charting things to watch out for..AIR (see chart) is trading within a fuzzy narrow corridor...2.70/2.75 - 2.95/3.00 trading range (rectangle pattern) with an ascending triangle now slicing its way upwards through this trading range (rectangle pattern)..It seems AIR is wavering back to 2.75ish again...If 2.70/2.75 is on AIR's agenda then this time it will be different..as this time, it will include a downward ascending triangle break would create extra bear pressure when AIR tests it's trading range boundary (2.70/2.75)..The ascending up slope line boundary is presently at 2.80....
In a Summary....the AIR chart is saying there is much added risk this time around for Traders (Traders--those people who buy at the lower end of the trading range) now than previous times
So are you currently in or out on this one Couta?