the range held again, 4x juicy trading range
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the range held again, 4x juicy trading range
Well, breached the 57c mark....not much on offer after that...wonder where it might finish up today.
Guess it all depends when ASX opens....
Just a bit of good banter Harrie...your right there really was nothing new in the presentations so why the change in sentiment...even if the large sellers has finished i cant see why the sudden turn around, so maybe some news is coming...bearing in mind that all shareholders get the same information at the same time
Rumour, fact or short term trading speculation?
in my experience sales numbers are kept pretty close to the chest at a2mc and most other companies for that matter, otherwise a pop like this may suggest insider trading. If its pure speculation then we may see a settling back to the 49c to 53c range pending further confirmation of sales trends released to the market at the next update.
Buying pressure coming from NZ, plenty of selling pressure in Aussy at A0.52c
Has anyone heard of the a2 milk shuffle? It happens when in the supermarket milk department, and shuffling a one row of a2 into 2 or 3 rows. Or shuffling 2 rows of a2 into 4 or 5 rows. It makes a wider presentation and looks very impressive:)
Boy o boy 6,000,000 through today so far, lot more buyers than sellers at the moment.
not to rain on your parade see weed but its probably only a new batch of fresh stock they are making room for. Nevertheless better that way rather than the reverse eh!
Wonder what the 5pm boys are going to do tonight. Looks quite stable around 56 to 57 at the mo. At that level above the 30 and 60 day MA over the last year so suspect the TA boys having a go with no further info. Suspect NZ$0.53 to NZ$0.54 after 5pm tonight.
Looks like David Mair has just accumulated 500,000 more shares at .485c. recently. Now they are up about $37,000 so far.:cool: This week.
That smells a little like insider trading to me. Of anyone, he will have a fairly good knowledge of what is going on in so far as early sales success, and the market probably will be aware that he has that knowledge. I know 500k shares is not a lot in terms of total no of shares on issue but he doesn't strike me as stupid even for $250k odd. I'm inclined to move my range now from $0.49 to $0.53 to NZ$0.51 to $0.56 until any further positive news comes out.
My guess is 58c at close, its 53c on ASX at the moment.
Yes see weed that's in my range. I think 0.58 is pushing it though. According to the TA boys 0.58 is a point which coincides with longer term 30 and 60 day MA's. Not being a TA it does seem to be a pivot point if it can hold for a while above that number.
Looking for 0.63 to get into the green again....
Someone took out all the 57c sellers well after 5pm. They were still disappearing at 5.08pm. So where to from here? 44,500,000 plus traded this last week.
Just about in the green after that ^_^ Ha
This is my take on whats happening...
For about 6 months there has been a big seller flooding the market, seemingly taking any offer above 45c, letting the SP recover a little then flooding the market again.
I would say on Tuesday, the big seller has either got rid of everything they wanted to sell or sold enough that they decided they can take a big break.
The result has been nobody has really been interested in buying. Why buy when next week the big seller will push it lower?
Suddenly the big seller is gone. People have woken up and realised that without the big seller, there is likely only one way for the SP to go. This creates buying pressure as they all try and get in before "the big rise". The price might drop a little now and scare a few of them out, but medium term I see it heading North, hopefully up to fair value (80c ish by my reckoning). A good full year result and we should see my fair value unless the big buyer still has more to sell...
In the absence of no new news I tend to believe that too blobbles, however I also think that moving up the best part of 10% on the day is not possible on that fact alone. Here are a couple of other factors IMO.
1. looking at the two presentations a2mc has made recently appear to be pretty slick. They look well organised, and their vision for the company is strong and believable
2. David Mair has provided a bit of a signal adding to his already sizeable parcel. Needs to be careful he does not attract too much attention to buying larger volumes for obvious reasons.
still a few cents short of my ABP
I'm no expert in market analysis, Blobbles, but I agree pretty much with Harrie that your analysis does not really explain what's been happening. Have large numbers of "people" really been watching the ATM share price that closely each day and all of them suddenly woken up within the span of a day or two and realised ("guessed" would be a better word) that the big seller has gone and it's the right time now to enter the market, resulting in well over 40m shares being traded? I just don't see that as probable.
My guess is that it has more to do with some big investors being impressed by ATM's latest market presentation. Look at the size of the trading. It looks to me rather like shrewd and informed buying by big investors, possibly some of them Asian. And they are not deterred by the company's indication that it MAY want to raise fresh capital to fund expansion.
But for every share sale there has to be a seller, so who are the sellers? I don't think lots of shareholders have suddenly chosen this moment to sell their shares at prices below what they were a few months ago. I strongly suspect the big seller is still there but has changed strategy a bit, realising that there are now some big buyers interested in ATM and there's no need to keep pushing the price down into the 40s, a rather self-defeating exercise. Let it rise, and feed demand at higher prices. Finally the market looks like moving towards more realistic levels.
I actually differ from those who believe investors are primarily focussed on ATM's 2015 sales figures, which will determine the short term direction of the SP. It's still early days. Big investors and committed longterm ones like myself will have a longer perspective and will be looking more at the company's overall strategy, which I think is impressive and likely to start yielding notable results over the next 2-3 years. The company's future is huge but is only just beginning really, after a few major hiccups such as the untimely deaths of its founders, which it was extremely fortunate to survive.
I concur with all of that. I think there is more to this than a big seller having exited and it has to relate to the recent presentations. Like harry says, they are slick, which is all fine. But I can not really see any meaningful new information in there for those of us that have been following ATM for a while. But they have possibly made presentations to different investors than they have before and sparked some interest and put ATM on those guys radar screens.
I do think the 2015 financials are important, but only so far as to give us an idea of how the implementation of their strategy is going, particularly UK, China and USA.
3 mill gone thru already this morn...big buyer but equally big seller.....still no holder notification just adds to the puzzle......can we expect a levelling off being its a friday.......wonder if 69 is expecting big dump today
What makes you think this time they've finished? Everyone said that last time when a massive volume went through and it was back to the usual.
I hope they have finished. But who knows?
Agree with all that Iceman, no new news for ATM followers, but huge exposure to investor groups who have just had their lights turned on by a well articulated presentation on aims objectives, scientific substance, brand building aspirations and strategies going forward.
That's the hype, the market now need to see the substance, or a positive trajectory.
Still believe there are big sellers out there, but on the basis of a sudden rush of demand sellers are likely to be considering either stepping back and selling at a higher price or reassessing the maintenance of their current exposure.
Written b4 the market opened. Will be an interesting day
I seem to remember one poster saying that amp on their calculation still had 32 mill shares left so if it is amp squaring up this last week must have seen that job done and dusted
Movement in SP is still based on speculation in the absence of hard data.
Looking at what is going on and the sudden burst of demand combined with a potential retraction of selling pressure I am going to shift my trading range slightly now from $0.53c to $0.58c pending trend confirmation.
Sudden demand increase does not come by chance. Something has clicked and IMO this has mainly come from increased exposure and the value proposition articulated through the seminar briefings
I agree that the only obvious explanation is the new interest generated by the briefings, but I think it's a bit harsh to say the SP movement is based only on "speculation" and no "hard data". The company produces financials at the appropriate times, and they are trending in the right direction. Of course we're all impatient to see the FY15 numbers.
But meanwhile a2MC has been quite forward in explaining its expansion strategy and keeping the market informed about progress in implementing it, such as sales into China and the takeup of A2 milk by stores in California, a market of almost 40m consumers. This is concrete evidence of momentum, competence and a well thought-out strategy, factors that big investors are professionally able to evaluate. I wouldn't call that speculation, even though there's a speculative element involved, as with all investments.
Even if we already had the FY data, any investment in a2MC would still have to be based largely on an assessment of the company's future, and it's good to see Babidge is out there with the kind of info investors need. It would be great if we had a transcript of the Q&A that followed his briefings, and if we knew who attended. It would also be fascinating to see an update in a month's time of the details given in his presentation about the distribution of shareholdings.
I agree with the importance of hard data--doesnt have to be earth shattering but should be pointing in the right direction.
Having said that,it may well have found its realistic level now ,while being undervalued from the selling before.
Alot more happy campers around now--congrats to all who benefited.
Slight correction NT. We know that a2mc produce hard data, but I am referring to hard data not yet known to the market which we probably won't get until FY15 report. The "speculation" is the anticipation that all the positives you mention above become a reality
"But meanwhile a2MC has been quite forward in explaining its expansion strategy and keeping the market informed about progress in implementing it, such as sales into China and the takeup of A2 milk by stores in California, a market of almost 40m consumers". Sorry NT but that is speculation. The fact that it is in all those stores and among all those consumers may say more about an effective distribution story than actual sales. The China formula story is not a given yet either. I accept though that its still positive and believe me I really hope it all comes to fruition. I'm reading what the market is thinking right now..or trying to.
So Milford have sold heaps
Must have looked at their valuations and said **** never really worth 90 cents or what it was and manage the risk accordingly. Mac used Milford implied valuation as validation for his numbers
But then they do still have nearly 10%
Pleased about that W69 because I know a bit about how fund managers operate. They were donkey deep into ATM and I suspect that ATM was a focus of the FMA 's investigation in market manipulation.
That in conjunction with being shafted on the SP last year didn't look good in the kiwisaver quarterly performance stats so it then became an excercise in risk minimisation and while ATM had all the promise of future growth potential it could never be guaranteed so out the door they went.
Why am I happy about that? Right decision for them but for the wrong reasons. Concentration on short term performance.
Suspect they will keep some but not sure how many. Suggest around 5 to 8 million shares.
More selling to be done but I am encouraged by higher demand.
Don't expect ACC or NZSF to be sellers.
Let's agree to disagree, Harrie. The company has detailed its strategy and its implementation thereof to potential investors, who can make of it what they will, using their presumed analytical experience. I think by your definition, any progress report is speculation. Even if the very latest financials ("hard data") were fully disclosed to these potential investors, opinions would vary as to what they really meant, and no one can know what next year's financials will show. There is always an element of uncertainty which is the spice of investment, but I think the term speculation belittles the information already available to enable an investment decision to be made. However, it's a semantic point, not worth too much arguing over. Cheers.
Speculation is not a dirty word NT. Detailed strategy and implementation plans while useful and compelling are not a substitute for results. It is therefore speculative to assume that the strategy and implementation will convert automatically into the results being aspired to. It is worth noting that a2mc has not produced a "progress" report since their last H/Y15 result. In the meantime we have to "speculate" on future performance.
At this point articulation of the strategy, the background, the IP, the knowhow, the goals and objectives have provided encouragement that there is a enhanced likelihood of success in target markets, hence the greater interest reflected in the SP recently. IMO the range will remain in the $0.53 to 0.58 range until further confirmation (and therefore a discounting of risk) that the strategy is succeeding. When Milford disappears along with any of the other non believers/risk minimisers I would see the next range going to the $0.65 mark and then on a positive FY15 result $0.76 to $0.90c depending on the strength of the result.
Cheers
According to their SSH Notice they sold 8,855,200 shares for $4,609,509.50 which by my calculation means an average SP of 53.257c. That must have hurt.
On Milford's website, the latest monthly report on their Active Growth Fund by Brian Gaynor as portfolio manager reports that "The major negative New Zealand contributors during April were Orion Health, a2 Milk and Xero."
Selling by Milfie probably more to do with fallout from the still yet unresolved FMA " investigation" rather than fundamentals of ATM. Actually what's happened to the "investigation".? Must be another lost file or perhaps lack of resolve within the Department to push on with whatever it is about.
time to head back down to the bottom of the range again and reload maybe:t_up:
Yes I agree Snapiti, that Milfords ATM sell down is nothing to do with the FMA "manipulation" enquiry, but that's not to say that ATM is not the subject of that enquiry. I posted some time ago that I believe it would come to nothing. The FMA will not have any "hard data" be able to prove anything, its too ethereal and nebulous.
IMO the sell down is a risk minimisation strategy, nothing more. Its just a question now of how many more to sell. 10% is a lot to get rid of, but unlikely they will dispose of all of them. Great opportunity to buy if you believe in ATM's long term success if it goes down to the lower end of the $0.53 to 0.58 range.
"The FMA said more than two months ago it would conclude the “final [Milford] investigation steps in the next few weeks”....yeah ...right!
highly paid bureaucratic buffoons?
Slight lifting of the curtain: https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/265433
The Perich bro's usually get what they want and its probably a good sign.
Thought something like this was due - onwards Cap'n :).
The worst that could happen is that Milford lose its kiwisaver status. This happened in a similar case to Hulich in 2009 when they also manipulated the market to make their returns look better even though this was to the advantage of the members. The FMA may have dug a hole for themselves here because a consistent ruling to the Hulich case would see the same treatment.
If the FMA did this they could cause an unintended forced manipulation of another kind because Milfords assets would be need to be either distributed among the 9 kiwisaver default providers or sold to another kiwisaver provider. In the Hulich case Fisher funds purchased them. Irrespective of this, whoever purchased the assets will need to decide whether to keep or dispose the shares they end up with.
Here is a little clarification issue for you to sort out for me NT
I am presuming that the Perich boys own 100% of Arrovest pty Ltd. The disclosure doc tells us that Arrovest owns more than 20% of Freedom Foods.(FF)
On this basis FF owns 17.831% of ATM therefore Arrovest effectively owns at least 3.56% of ATM plus the recent purchase of 6.9 mil shares (at A$0.47) representing a direct 1.318% of ATM. Therefore effectively Arrovest own at least 4.88% of ATM.
I am assuming that because Arrovest has over a 20% interest in a company that has over a 5% interest in a NZ listed security that FF has to be pulled into the equation. I don't see that FF has effectively increased its stake?
Do you have any insights into this?
I think you are saying that Arrovest has a relevant interest of 19.1% even though only own 1.3% .......yes?
Bit like a lot of those disclosures for David Mair ......he doesn't directly own those shares but has an interest in that Trudt company that does.
Nonetheless interesting, maybe signals a stronger intent from freedom than the usual we could sell sometime
"relevant" is obviously the operative word W69.
As drcjp has said, what the Perich boys want, they get. The fact that they have made this move I think is extremely positive for ATM going forward, especially with their developing distribution networks in China
I wonder why they have done it through Arrovest rather than FF Though?
China sales doing really well. http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-...9#.VXeFHc-qpBc
Looks like it'll break 60c in near term...just my gut feel.
I have to say this announcement had me scratching my head. I think Ziggy's right about the 20% interest but don't know at what point a takeover might be on. Neither FF nor Perich/Arrovest talk much about their interest in a2MC, and a2MC has not been mentioned as being in any way a party to the Perich/FF 50-year relationship recently formed with major Chinese interests. Don't know whether this latest development is good or bad, or what these Aussies would have to gain by a bigger stake in a2MC.
Milk company sues the ABC over The Checkout
http://www.smh.com.au/business/media...10-ghkzjp.html
that'll go down like a cup of cold sickQuote:
Executive producer of The Checkout, Julian Morrow, said: "Even just hearing about the legal action gives me a feeling of discomfort in my tummy, and I can't say if drinking A2 Milk would help with that at all."
This will be great provide A2M win the case. Great publicity assuming as a potential remedy A2 also request a public apology
Seems like the defence argument is going to pretty much be that it's a comedy show and everyone who watches it knows it's not to be taken entirely literally and seriously. But I can't see how that would work, especially when they put the show up on the Net where it would be Googled and viewed by people all round the world, many of whom will take it as serious investigative journalism and will assume it's all true unless the company objects and the producers are forced to retract and apologise.
Unfortunately the company seemed not to handle the situation very well at the time, and it's not clear how much they were the victims of an ambush and unfair tactics. The issue in defemation terms is not simply whether the programme was "balanced". To achieve "balance" you only have to include the company's denial, which leaves viewers thinking "well the company would deny it wouldn't they", and the programme kind of did this. What was really needed was for the programme to make clear at the end of the day that the allegations against a2MC were wrong.
Another problem is that however strong a case you have, there's no certainty. Judges sometimes go mad in cases like this. It's not clear if this one will go before a jury, which could be even worse if the jurors happen to think it was all just a hilarious joke and the victim was an upstart NZ company that's interfering in the Australian dairy market so it deserves what's come.
Still, I do believe taking the case to court is the right thing to do. It'll give the company a chance to bring the truth out in the course of evidence.
I wonder if the programme's legal costs and any damages awarded will be picked up by Dairy Australia. That wouldn't surprise me one bit. It did seem to me that DA's helpful hand was fairly obvious in the programme itself.
I'm a little puzzled that a2MC is pursuing the ABC under Australia's Consumer Protection Law rather than suing for defamation, especially as the Consumer Protection Law specifically provides the ABC with a carte blanche exemption from being pursued in relation to programmes it has broadcast in the normal course of programme broadcasting. The Consumer Protection Law does not provide for penalties, as far as I can see.
It's not clear why the ABC is granted such an exemption allowing it to mislead and deceive the public, with no comeback by parties that are adversely affected or by the public that has been misled or deceived.
But this exemption does not protect the ABC with regard to actions it has taken that are not broadcasting per se. In this case it is argued that the ABC went further by promoting the offending programme via the Internet.
Its all rather esoteric, but here are the relevant provisions:
18 Misleading or deceptive conduct
(1) A person must not, in trade or commerce, engage in conduct that is misleading or deceptive or is likely to mislead or deceive.
...
19 Application of this Part to information providers
(1) This Part does not apply to a publication of matter by an information provider if ...
(b) the information provider is the Australian Broadcasting Corporation ... (and) the publication was by way of a radio or television broadcast by the information provider.
At least the the program achieving its aim - Last year, Mr Morrow said: "One of our aims for this series is to get a legal action in every single one of the states and territories in Australia. It seems like a crazy dream, but I believe we can achieve it."
Good one
I never cease to be amazed at the conservative stance of business on issues like this.
What they should be doing is making a spoof video on YouTube with a couple of other companies who are also sueing "The Checkout" and take the absolute Pi$$ out of that program .... make comments like watching "the Checkout" will cause your piles to spasm and bring on early dementia from cynical attitudes.
Of course that'll never happen, but God it would funny if business behaved more like that and bought the bloody media back down to earth. Frank Zappa's specific quote re rock journalists now applies to all journalists/media: "Rock journalism is people who can't write, interviewing people who can't talk, for people who can't read".
The expression "let sleeping dogs lie" would have been a better reaction by a2mc IMO. I read the accusation by a2mc to ABC TV and the letter sent back by the program. The fact is that there is plenty of anecdotal evidence supporting the proposition but no definitive scientific evidence. In law they will rely on scientific evidence and fact. Not a good move. In fact if the courts support the view that the program has not legally breached advertising standards then a2mc will take a big hit. Big risk.
atm sp looking strong this morning
Is it correct that the lower NZ OCR goes the more appealing this stock will be (all other factors held constant)
Look at last 6 months chart. Normally sp would start to fall back to 50c by now. Something feels different this time around, or am I counting my chickens before they hatch. Over 51,000,000 shares traded in 8 days. Three times more buyers than sellers at the moment.
fair enough snapiti....does look to have some upside but cant see how you can have good fundamentals but still grow the company from profits....if we gain traction in the UK do we then spend profits in say France. etc..when does profit start to appear on the bottom line...being a plumber its all about the bottom line
Has MAC been thrown out of the forum, if so why, or has he voluntarily exited?
I'm mystified about your repeated assertions Harrie that there is "no definitive scientific evidence". What exactly do you want "definitive scientific evidence" of, and how do you define what constitutes "definitive scientific evidence"? What would satisfy you? What is the "proposition" that you consider unproved?
There is clear proof that the A1 and A2 milk proteins are different, and no debate about that. Hundreds of scientists around the world are working on the precise implications of this with regard to medical conditions such as autism, schizophrenia, milk protein intolerance, SIDS etc, not to mention digestive problems of course.
The recent Curtin trial using human subjects showed that milk drinkers react differently to A1 and A2, and more work is planned on this, using a larger subject sample and looking at further specifics. That doesn't mean the first clinical trial was inconclusive, just that the researchers want more detail. That research will go on and on. Are you disputing the results of the Curtin trial? I'm not aware of any respected scientist in this area of research who is doing so, just some non-medical trolls including certain nutritionists with ties to Dairy Australia.
Research papers published in peer-reviewed scientific journals around the world, not disputed by Big Dairy or anyone else, verify that A1 milk generates a narcotic peptide in the digestive system (BCM7) that is not generated by A2 milk. That's not a matter of debate. Nor is it disputed that A2 is the natural milk produced by human mothers and other lactating mammals such as sheep, goats etc and even by cows except for a proportion in some countries such as NZ that have a gene mutation originating in European breeds.
It is also now well established, despite doubts expressed some years ago on rather spurious grounds by the European Food Safety Authority, that BCM7 can escape through the gut wall and enter the bloodstream. And from there it can enter the brain with observed harmful medical consequences that have been described in published research papers.
Are you saying this body of research, which again is undisputed, does not constitute definitive scientific evidence? What exactly do you want? There are dozens of research teams in many countries working on this line of inquiry, which shows it is a genuine area of global scientific and medical concern way beyond Australasia and a2MC, and no one is coming up with contradictory results.
Yet a2MC is carefully not making claims in this area. It is pushing a2 milk solely on the digestive issue, where there is hard scientific evidence. So what "proposition" are you saying remains unproven?
There is also the anecdotal evidence, as you mention. This of course is rejected by some scientific purists who still say anecdotal evidence has no value and should be ignored. The scientific world is now changing its view on that outdated dogma, and it is now resorted to mainly by those who can't find any other line of argument. Some medical specialists in Australia are already prescribing a switch to A2 after witnessing the anecdotal benefits attested to by scores of families in relation to medical conditions such autism.
It's true that there is no "definitive" evidence yet that BCM7 is a causal factor in type 1 diabetes and ischaemic heart disease, because that will require very difficult longitudinal human studies taking decades. There's some supporting evidence, but not yet definitive. So all we can say right now is that no one has yet come up with any other credible explanation for the remarkable epidemiological correlation, discovered by a2MC's co-founder Corran McLachlan, between A1/A2 consumption and the prevalence of those diseases in countries round the world. Remember, it was well known for many decades that most of those who died of lung cancer were smokers, but it took a very long time to produce watertight evidence of a causal link.
..."That doesn't mean the first clinical trial was inconclusive, just that the researchers want more detail. (Curtin human trials)..."That research will go on and on."..."It's true that there is no "definitive" evidence yet that BCM7 is a causal factor in type 1 diabetes and ischaemic heart disease, because that will require very difficult longitudinal human studies taking decades"
Sorry NT, I'm not personally disputing what you have said at all, I'm looking at it from a legal perspective. If you look at what I have taken from your comments above you can see that there still exists a level of research that needs to be undertaken before it can be definitively proven that A1 milk is detrimental to your health. If we were at that stage now, ATM 's SP would be well above where it is now and regular A1/A2 milk sales would be screwed. No one is arguing that there is no difference between A1 & A2 beta casein, what is still in question is can ATM scientifically prove beyond doubt that A2 milk has better health outcomes than regular milk.
Actually he has been banned from private posting as well. Tried today to do a private message but it could not be delivered.
Does anyone know if this is a suspension and if so for how long. Seems a bit harsh. In my experience MAC has been a sensible poster. If you cannot have a robust discussion, what's the point of being on the blog?
I have to agree with both of you. Perhaps A2MC should subject itself to a double blind placebo extensive clinical trial at Dunedin Hospital and Otago Uni and take a leaf out of the Promisia Integrative strategy to efficacy book. That company jumped that hurdle or so their recent announcement said. No harm in doing things properly if one believes in ones product.
Can't disagree with that Lola. Can't see that it can be that hard to get a group of people together who "believe" they are allergic or have some other reaction to regular milk, and run a clinical trial with regular and a2 milk over time. Those who also reacted to a2 milk could be tested for lactose intolerance.
Maybe too simplistic?
Thanks Harrie but I think it would be easier to prove this point in a court of law than to persuade the entrenched dairy industry and health/food safety bureaucracy who have a joint vested interest in not conceding that the dairy products currently being exported by NZ and Australia could carry health risks. Just look at the lengths of official dishonesty that both the Australian and NZ food safety authorities have gone to in order to suppress and misrepresent the findings of the Swinburn report.
As you say, the courts are interested in facts. The political bureaucracy is not, and a2MC cannot legally make claims that conflict with the position laid down by people like the NZ Food Safety Authority, that there is no food safety issue involved with A1 milk. It would be prosecuted for trying to do so.
If the scientific findings of the Swinburn report had been allowed to become the official position of the NZFSA which actually commissioned it more than a decade ago, it would have made a vast difference to a2MC's SP and market success.
That's also the reason a2MC goes through ridiculous contortions to distance itself from the dozens of research papers that have been published showing that there are certainly health risks associated with A1 milk. It publishes such papers on a special website that's hard to find and you have to accept a list of conditions if you want to read them, in order to protect a2MC from the wrath of the law put in place to protect the mainstream dairy industry.
Lola's suggestion for a larger trial is certainly a good one and I think that may be what a2MC has in mind. Probably not at OU or even in NZ, as there are too many critics who will say mates are involved. And who is to pay for this kind of research? Big trials cost big money. The Swinburn report a decade ago said more research was needed and the NZ government should support it. But the government and dairy industry weren't ever going to fund it for obvious reasons - they knew what the results would show. If a2MC funds it, it will be criticised like the Curtin trial, even though correct protocols were followed in that instance to ensure integrity. And even if funding can be found and such a trial is carried out, critics will still turn around and say "we still need more research". There's no easy answer.
We are on the same page NT, but its the legal system that will decide on whether there has been a breach of advertising standards. As you say the dairy industry and the country for that matter have a vested interest in preserving the integrity of their stance and will look to the health/food safety to provide evidence. Lies and half truths aside, legally that evidence will be a bit hard to discard as its an authority that has credibility and they will claim that there is no conclusive evidence that regular milk with the A1protein creates any health issues. Conversely it is then difficult to prove that a2 only milk has better health outcomes, despite anecdotal evidence or hearsay which is unlikely to be admitted as evidence. In the legal system, despite encouraging evidence to the contrary, then it must remain a fact that a2 milk cannot conclusively be held out to claim that its health benefits are superior to that of regular milk.
I know that all exposure is good exposure but I'm not sure that the risk of taking this to court with the possibility of failure is the right move by a2mc. The consequences of losing are too great, even though they may lose for the wrong reasons. The legal system rules on proven facts.
Its a tough rd alright --some years back Monsanto actually stopped a report about the damage that growth hormones and antibiotics caused that were found in the milk from the cows that were given these chemicals(it was cancer from memory).--I believe it talks about it in a documentary called ''the corporation''---pretty dark stuff.
Perhaps for now A2 will simply have to bring the good points to as many as possible rather than take on the big and powerful.
(Those with deep pockets will just play the continuous appeal game until their adversary runs out of money.)
Ive heard that JK has gone and signed the TPPA which is a sad day for all---(Details remain secret for 4 years)
This could go on and on. Let me just say I don't think the court will just accept the official FSA line as fact. Nor would the FSA or dairy industry want to front up with their scientific experts to be cross examined on it. They normally don't allow their experts to face public questioning on this issue - with reason. If it comes down to the scientific evidence, I'm sure a2MC will win. I would hopect the court will hear evidence/submissions as to the opposing scientific claims made by a2MC and the BS statements made in the programme, because that's what this is really about.
However, I suspect the ABC will try to minimise the scientific evidence, and try to make the case turn on legal technicalities rather than scientific fact. In which case a2MC doesn't have much to lose, reputationwise.
To rule on a point of law the court needs to hear both sides in detail. To do this you better believe that the FSA's scientific staff will be summons to the court and cross examined, so will all other relevant research need to be admitted. This is necessary to provide a court ruling on the issue of whether "check out" were in breach of acceptable reporting standards.
In the absence of conclusive scientific evidence the FSA will just stick to its old line. ... result...no case to answer, court dismissed!
I think its a bit of a long shot and a distraction. The best that can come of this is that a2mc is prepared to defend itself, therefore the perception is that there must be something in it.
I guess we will find out in due course NT!
Correction --apparently the agreement has not been signed yet--but is close(I know its a bit of a sidebar but this could affect all kiwi exporters--all this talk of court cases made me think of it)
Long drawn out court cases can be a black hole for funds unfortunately.
Agree with winner--rather than defend or attack--its probably money better spent promoting the good points--If A2 is better --.then state it--if others want to challenge --let them.
SP has certainly improved,but its still a bit early to call it a trend-time will tell
Yes, well I think that had to do something W69. Unfortunately I have to agree with you though, its a distraction and a complete waste of time and money, not likely to go anywhere and worse could backfire. a2mc are in an unenviable position. Dammed if you do dammed if you don't.
Hopefully they can get ABC to somehow ameliorate their stance without it going to court.
Looks like the 5 o'clock boys are back in town. But this time around they are buying and not selling:t_up:.
Looks like NZ Super Fund has been a big seller. Its total holding has gone down by 6m shares, taking it below the 5% SSH barrier.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/265762
Would have thought that the NZSF would have been there for the long haul. Suppose the good news is that they have dumped 6 mil and the price has remained in the high 50's. directly after that news though the price dropped a cent, so that may have scared a few into thinking that there is more selling to come from that quarter?