Originally Posted by
NT001
I'm no expert in market analysis, Blobbles, but I agree pretty much with Harrie that your analysis does not really explain what's been happening. Have large numbers of "people" really been watching the ATM share price that closely each day and all of them suddenly woken up within the span of a day or two and realised ("guessed" would be a better word) that the big seller has gone and it's the right time now to enter the market, resulting in well over 40m shares being traded? I just don't see that as probable.
My guess is that it has more to do with some big investors being impressed by ATM's latest market presentation. Look at the size of the trading. It looks to me rather like shrewd and informed buying by big investors, possibly some of them Asian. And they are not deterred by the company's indication that it MAY want to raise fresh capital to fund expansion.
But for every share sale there has to be a seller, so who are the sellers? I don't think lots of shareholders have suddenly chosen this moment to sell their shares at prices below what they were a few months ago. I strongly suspect the big seller is still there but has changed strategy a bit, realising that there are now some big buyers interested in ATM and there's no need to keep pushing the price down into the 40s, a rather self-defeating exercise. Let it rise, and feed demand at higher prices. Finally the market looks like moving towards more realistic levels.
I actually differ from those who believe investors are primarily focussed on ATM's 2015 sales figures, which will determine the short term direction of the SP. It's still early days. Big investors and committed longterm ones like myself will have a longer perspective and will be looking more at the company's overall strategy, which I think is impressive and likely to start yielding notable results over the next 2-3 years. The company's future is huge but is only just beginning really, after a few major hiccups such as the untimely deaths of its founders, which it was extremely fortunate to survive.