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Hi DA,
Thanks,
Like your thoughts on the EURUSD as I am long at the moment ...
I will probably have a look at the S&P tonight...
When you posted about it and also your interest in gold a week or so back I tested out my CFD charts etc and trading platform for both and it works OK
thks & rgds
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sp 500 has hit resistance around 1225 pivot , this maybe a warning that market may correct lower from here and most likely mean a us dollar rally.
i have closed longs on nzd for +80 + 100
eur usd longs +120 and sp500 +20 points.
i would expect a nudge higher from here but looking to set up short.
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I am not an expert in currency. When I analyse globalfactors, commodity trend to pick stocks I can see some trend for some currencies.I have never done any online currency trading.
I expect both NZD and AUD go higher in the short run whilehaving volatility
Inthe medium term probably next year or end of this year USD can go higheragainst baskets of currencies
Anybody is investing in currency for the long run? If it isso how do you take positions?
Do you buy currency options or any other instruments?
Thanks and regards
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DA,
hey mate, how come you picking a short?you thinking the 80c level will not hold??
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longer term direction is short as im picking the rally from 73.80 is a correction and the trend is still down.
shorter term action is long, targeting upper channel line 81.20 or even 82 +
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think the trend will be switching, below 80c now, that news from germaning is hitting everything.
thoughts on targets?
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looks very much like a trend change underway. i scalped a few on the long 30+ but kind of felt it was struggling a bit.
i got some shorts on the nzd 130+,100+ aud 130+ eur 100+.
most likely the bulls will not roll over without a fight. if i use the kiwi as an example i would set a target at 78.90 for closing shorts and go long and see how much of a bounce we get.
if you dont fancy a long then use the rally to set up shorts
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x...99/nzdm5-5.jpg
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cheers for that will be following today, great pick ups on shorts from u, "big collect for the boys",
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hey da,
from your last post: are you thinking it will drop down to 78.90 then bounce from ther, just had a look had it seems to be going up now could the bounce not have hit at like 79.25,
note still a novice to curr trading just unshore of the way you stated it b4
cheers in advance,
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note, just looking in 30min window macd crossed low rsi and signals from b bands, couldnt be a long coming up as we speak?
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im picking it will fall one last down wave, maybe around 79.40 and go to 78.90 then will try a long.
watch out as there will be possibly a reaction at 1.30 pm as there is a news release from RBA
the long will be high risk trade so i wouldnt recommend it unless your quite experienced.
safer to wait for a short entry from higher up.
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you were right about the downwave i got hit a lil but just lost a couple of bucks as had a real small postion as always,
will wait till after 1.30, thanks for the help,
bio
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there you go bio the kiwi following the script, hopefully that helped to make a few pips,
now i think price will bounce from here at 78.80 ish,but not for the faint hearted.
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Goldman Sachs had a shocker of a result.
Risk aversion looks to be back.
Would short the Kiwi but am going for the EUR @ 1.3673 only aiming for 1.3600
see what happens when I wake up....
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120+ 100+ on kiwi longs , 160+ aud long ,100+ eur .
kiwi hit and reversed on 80 , have taken another 50+ off the short from 80
its a very volatile market will look for more short entries after dust settles.
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Volatile is an understatement.
Germany and France agree to boost the rescue fund and not long after that, Moody's downgrades Spain's government bond ratings to A1 with a negative outlook.
Think I’ll sit on the sideline for a bit.
DA, can I ask what trading platform you use?
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Hi pumice I use saxobank there ok spreads are acceptable and no transaction fees.they have a good mobile platform for iPad iPhone so i can manage trades anywhere
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Cheers DA
I use Oanda, they seem ok, but thier mobile platform (on android) is a bit buggy.
See any trade setups?
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hi pumice, big event risk this weekend so i think we are unlikely to see a range breakout until the meeting is
done. i favour scalping the kiwi from the long side playing the range 78.80 - 80.20, but just intra day trades.
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if anyone has followed this trade I would take profit at 79.90
I have 100 +pips with two trades but it's not the market to be too greedy
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Target hit on spike up 200+ , probably hold off from here and see what happens.
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hey DA,
whats the plans for the market today?thoughts?
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hi biology , absolutely stuck in a range from 79 to 80 . play the range long or short untill the range breaks.
i wouldnt be too greedy just hunt for 60 - 70 pips until the range breaks no clear direction at the moment.
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Range break finally.
More rubish in Europe
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im going to live dangerously, long 77.81 stop 77.65
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Thats crazy talk.
Has your SL hit yet?
I was going to short on the break but wasnt watching the market close enough so missed it. Was looking like a great setup too, it had a few attempts at .80 but just couldnt do it.
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It was crazy , but an opportunity with a very low risk was too good to pass. -20
Im still expecting a bounce in the dow tonight which i thought would materialise in risk on ,
Still bearish on the kiwi though.
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Well it did bounce back a bit DA, only to fall away again.
Can I ask how you manage to be so disciplined with your trades. I have been trading for a few years now, but this is (like many) my one remaining weakness.
Fortunately it hasn’t cost me a margin call as I risk very little. Any tips?
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great question, i think trading tends to expose any flaws in your character, it will find it and play you like a fiddle. My problem for many years was fighting my impulsive nature i tended to enter trades too early , only to watch my stops being hit and then heading in the anticipated direction. i would then jump in too late and get stopped out again.
elliot wave theory helped me determine risk, ideally you will enter very close to your calculated top and therefore have a very tight stop. most of my trades will risk only 30 - 50 pips which allows you the luxury of large positions.
the next best way to enter is on a retracement of the first wave down , this retracement is typically 50 - 61.8 % of the first wave and can be up to 100 % retracement ( double top ) so plenty of time to enter if you miss the top.
i think another important issue is not to listen to all the talking heads, this just brings doubt in to your trading, be true to yourself. I ve never really struggled with being wrong as long as it was my trade.
i think another key point is to wait for the right trade , there are always good set ups in the market and there is no need to enter a trade where risk is not correct or even that you cant work out a good exit,never mind a good entry.
im sure others will add to this list.
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i will be looking to get short again on nzd usd / aud usd next week.
i play 2 positions on the pair i feel will be weaker on there respective cross , i think the aud will be weaker than the kiwi and therefore will go
short two aud usd positions against one short nzd usd.
i am expecting that a short trade will occur at close on the dow on monday ( U.S. mon trading day ), so will wait for this signal before looking at going short. ( risk is still the dominant trend most likely initiated by equity weakness )
kiwi levels may be 79 fib action and descending trendline ( expected ) or if we are very lucky a run to just under 80 ( would be a gift )
watch the italian bond rates, 7 % seems to be tipping point , market was closed friday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR10:IND
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x...99/NZDH1-5.jpg
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short trade nzd 140+, aud 130 +, 120+
did not get expected sell signal on the dow , therefore shorts closed and am now long nzdusd 77 .70 , audusd and dow 12 050 for a counter trend rally.
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Hi DA
I am short gbp nzd and euro but not as good entries as you.
the GBP does look like its sideways but my trigger was bearish engulfing,and daily CCI was -100 then retraced and bounced off the 0 line back
down into negative teritory,so i am anticipating a break down out of the range its in on the daily
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hey da,
plans for today?i liked your post on the 13th cheers mate
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today looking at focussing more on aud usd short than kiwi.
unusual to see the aud holding up well and the kiwi getting a hiding , this probably indicates aud nzd cross buying which is holding the aud up and pressuring the kiwi.
will have a look at short aud usd levels to enter and post later , risk reward looks good .
the only slight spanner in the works is a short term bullish pattern on the dow which may mean there is a little risk coming back into the market.
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1.02 should prove difficult to break , i would get as close as you can to 1.02 and short with a 40 pip stop.
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Just closed AUDUSD short for 100 pips, entered off the double top hitting the 50 Fib level yesterday afternoon - looked a bit shakey as the priced retraced up to 1.0200, but then made a nice move down to my TP. Currently looking for a clean entry into the NZDUSD - maybe wait for a retrace? (The last one only went to 23.6 and I only take bounces off the 38.2 up to the 78.6)
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as stated focus was on the aud usd short yesterday , closed out yesterday afternoon for 120+ 105+ 80+, no kiwi short.
today trade the range 102.20 - 100.5 , if 100.5 breaks we are going much lower , if 102.20 negates short bias.
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long from 1.0030 & 10050 stops at 1.001
1.005 area support looks like its held , still very cautious about being too long but shouild get a reasonable bounce
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closed out long trades + 70 +90 , this looks like an impulsive move higher so if correction remains a 3 wave affair will get long again
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x...9999/audm5.jpg
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NZDUSD: Price is making lower lows, but MACD is making higher lows - bullish divergence maybe? Price seems to have stalled at the .7550 area - could've been due to the weekend coming up though. Something to watch come trading tomorrow.
1hr chart, but divergence also showing on 4 hr chart.
Attachment 3698