ooops.....well spotted Big Bob
General Motors not General Electric.....got the General part right;)
I will go and edit my post to correct
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Fed chief's testimony: Economy's worst may be past (marketwatch)
...nice one chief, but sorry, sure not going to join you in LA-LA-LAND
...market may be using good, pump & dump news to test support, SPX 500 *925 before heading to back towards *965 (+)
Trading Strategy: hedge: short bias
Kind Regards
...on Wednesday, SPX 500 *925 test successful and index now most likely to take out *949 (June 2nd. High) to target *965 (+)
Trading Strategy: hedge: short bias (building above *950)
_no guarantees and strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Usually what happens with continual noise happening everyday, ones brain tends to turn off certain channels and become somewhat out of focus on what really could be happening.
To prevent myself from becoming somewhat brainwashed I develop little projects to try and keep everything within an overall perspective.
I often look back at various historical events for help.
My little project today was looking back at history using long term resistance/support lines and to test the DOW's long term memory effect on the present DOW index performance
The 9000 mark on the DOW is well known by chartists as a key level. If the DOW breaks above this 9000 level it signals a return to a primary uptrend.
What is so interesting about this 9000 level (see green line on chart) is the fact it was also the mark which signaled the primary uptrend back in 2003 confirming the end of the last Bear Market cycle in 2002.
...interesting ....eh
Also interesting is the DOWs long term memory as shown with the other major long term resistance/support lines drawn in orange. None of this is uncommon as most charts show trends are affected by long term memory, however as an investor one can see these long term memories can give you valuable advanced warnings to be careful at these times in the future.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...us03jun94_.png
...SPX 500 in trading range consolidating between June 23rd. low *924 and June 5th. high *952
...as long as price action remains above *924, bullish upside potential to *968/*976 (+) remains
Trading Strategy: hedge: short bias (building above *950)
_no guarantees and strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
...it's kind of weird, the 4.6% yield for PD's and CB's over 30 years...however:
...considering the US needs to finance USD 3.25 trillion by September 2009, of which foreign CB's will take a chunk of, at least 1 trillion can be expected to be taken by PD's, which are literally stuffed with cash to their necks thanks to the bail outs...and this is how it could work:
-PD's and banks borrow at 0% and earn 4.6% short-to medium term -not bad in a deflationary environment
-in the long term however with inflation taking hold, to borrow at 0% at the short end of the curve and lend out expensive at the long end of the curve, constitutes good conservative banking business
...the question however arises, who is going to dash into debt right now, when the whole of the USD denominated debt stands roughly at 52 trillion???
...it is most unlikely, as a matter of fact, the Fed is simply powerless to stop the deleveraging of the credit based financial/economic system; therefore, inflation will not be a problem short- to medium term as long as this debt is not purged from the system;
...and why would the Fed want to raise rates in the short- to medium term???
-Deliberately acting detrimental to the PD's and CB's interests???
-Deliberately killing off the ???Green Shoots???
-Deliberately going against their own strategy of buying bonds to keep rates low???
-Deliberately worsening the housing market???
...and the Fed is DEFINITELY not raising rates to SAVE the BOND MARKET as the bond market does not need saving
...The Fed has only done two most important things based on the long term view:
1. hand out enough cash to the PD's and banks to survive the ongoing asset squeeze short- to medium term and long term to be ready to lend
2. change the mark to market back to mark to model to stop asset write downs short- to medium term and long term for 'toxic' assets to become 'de-toxified'
...for this long term view to play out profitably for the Fed , the PD's, and the CB's, it will be essential for the deleveraging cycle to come full circle
Trading Strategy: mostly cash; hedge: short bias (still); (timing of delevaraging cycle) to buy PD's (banks)
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
...SPX 500 closed bang on *924; giving the index a bit of lee way from severing *928, any sustained violation of *924 and the market is looking at a short term down target of SPX 500 *880 (minimum)
...selling pressure was intense
...any short-term close above *935 indicates more bullish potential
Trading Strategy: hedge: short with upside stop;
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards