TA indicates that it is time to sell this climber, regardless of what you bought it for.
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TA indicates that it is time to sell this climber, regardless of what you bought it for.
Thanks for your reply Scamper.
Based upon my estimates of value, RYM was trading around its intrinsic value at its highest point 2009 - so I don't think you necassarily paid over the odds. However it looks like there is more value now as the intrinsic value has risen over the last 12 months yet the share price has basically gone sideways. Combined with the opportunity to pick up shares around the $2 mark over the last few months, it has been good buying in my opinion. Not the right time to sell RYM anyway.
CFO told me most analysts put the value in the mid 2's and my own DCF and straight line valuation is $2.70 and 2.67 respectively. But to temper my enthusiasm - I know others who also hold and are very keen on RYM who have the value around $2.40 more in line with analysts conclusions.
Personally I like the 3% dividend, as I don't believe RYM need the cash for growth, and I know that in 10 years time it will be a significant source of cashflow. Don't forget that 3% dividend will compound at the same rate as their realised profit growth.
For example if they manage to compound cashflows at their target growth rate of 15% for 5 years: You will enjoy cash each year initially 3% of initial capital but will become 6% of initial capital in year 5, plus your initial capital will have doubled in value.
And if I am right and there is a small discount inherent in the shares now, you could do even better than that depending on the markets perception of RYM's at the time.
Time is the friend of a wonderful business and the enemy of a terrible one.
Cheers
Sauce
Hi Bobcat
Glad to have someone throw around a different point of view!
I would enjoy it if you could post some charts to show us your thoughts and reasoning from a TA perspective.
I don't know anything about TA really but always keen to try and see things from other peoples angle.
Cheers
Sauce
I could be wrong (have been b4) but RYM is meeting resistance at 2:20 and the MACD and Scholastic indicate a falling away. Could punch through but IMHO it's more likely to fall away for a few weeks.
BC
BC.
I hope you are wrong as I have just brought more recently.But really what upsets me is RYM is my 1st choice of 5 shares for next year's competition.I have had no joy in this years.Now you has cast doudt on my 1st choice.!!!!
Hate to think what you will say about the other 4.???!!!!!Have not put my entry in yet but looking at ABA,EBO,CCC,RYM,and ZIN or XRO
Good luck with that (DISC: hold 3 of them ^^).
Bobcat seems correct in positing $2.20 as a resistance point, I don't really use MACD or Stochastic (which I assume "scholastic" should be :) ), but recent data does suggest that the local high has been reached for now, although I can't see anything indicating an overall trend-reversal.
Yes I had not really thought about the $2.20 resistance until he posted.I was just happy RYM was in an uptrend. I did look at charts ,and saw that $2.17 had been the top price reached twice this year.So is $2.17 or $2.20 the resistance point?I was hoping it would be closer to $2.75.!!!!!!!
Bobcat, my TA work suggests that it's still good, and would have to close below 213 to break the uptrend.
The bollies have converged and diverged at least four times in the last 6 months, and are currently still diverging -- just.
It is well above the 30- and 60- moving averages.
The MACD has been slithering round, closely twined for the last 4 months, during which there's been a 10% rise.
The 'resistance point' was 217, which was tested in January and May, not 220.
The last two weeks have seen tentative breaks above 217, which could be seen as a positive move beyond the year's trading range.
I can't actually find any TA sell indicators -- not to say that next week may have them sprouting everywhere...
Does anyone have access to OBV? Cheers.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...PB/RYM127L.jpg
The Big Picture. RYM is in a "longterm" (21 month) uptrend. Because this uptrend is decelerating many indicators such as trendlines trigger multiple "Sell" signals as the uptrend progresses. Most of the "Sell" signals numbered here come from trendline breaks, but (3) and (10) are Bearish divergences while (7) and (8) are OBV derived. Note that all these signals presented singly and none were confirmed by any other signals at the time they were triggered. (You can see why is it unwise to act on the basis of any single unsupported signal). So, in spite of this string of "Sell" signals, many would still be holding RYM.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...PB/RYM127S.jpg
The Current Situation. RYM is in a nice clear, clean, tidy 5 month uptrend. It has recently broken above the old $2.17 Resistance level and continues to make higher highs and higher lows (that's an uptrend). It has recently formed a Bearish divergence, but again there were no supporting signals to warrant acting on this. (Note what happened last time this situation presented itself - at point (3) ) The OBV has shown 2 "steps" where big holders got out. This is considered to be Bearish, but again - no supporting signals from other indicators. The OBV is now rising again. The Slow Stochastic oscillator that has stayed positive throughout this uptrend remains positive. I am loathe to comment on the MACD because I consider this indicator to be totally ineffective. It has, for example, triggered 5 "Buy" and 5 "Sell" signals over the short period covered by the uptrend shown on this chart! (not to mention 16 trades over the period of the first chart - worse than useless.) In short, if you have (not unreasonably) chosen not to act on any of those 10 "sell" signals, there is certainly no reason to sell now.
So, how best to monitor the current uptrend? Significant weakness would be indicated by :-
(1) A break below the current price trendline.
(2) A downtrend.
(3) A break of the OBV trendline.
(4) A Stochastic oscillator Sell signal.
(5) A failure to stay above $2.17 (this now "ought" to be support).