Originally Posted by
NT001
Valid questions, Skid. All shares, including blue chips, are a bit of a punt. They can all go wrong because of unexpected commercial setbacks (such as Fonterra has had), strategic decisions by big shareholders, investor fickleness...you name it. And we're all aware that innovative new companies placing their bets on new markets are especially vulnerable. Anyone investing in ATM must have their eyes open. It's not enough to compare its annual results with the financial risks attached to market expansion. That stuff is all beside the point.
I've said it before and will say it again, anyone who has bought shares in ATM without reading Prof Woodford's book "Devil in the Milk" (and also looking at the scientific research listed on <http://www.betacasein.org/disclaimer.php?prevpage=> if you want the science) is buying a pig in a poke. Not a wise investment. Like, I wouldn't buy shares in a gold mining company because I know zilch about gold mining.
There's no such thing as saying ATM is currently over-valued or under-valued. Its "value" is impossible to estimate at this time. To answer your question, I'd see it as a good five-year investment, but that's not based on any recognised method of analysis of its present financial performance. It's based on an informed assessment of its future. Not a blind punt, but with a speculative element just the same. One of the main things to watch is whether its management team is acting smartly and responsibly. I think it is.