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How to become a millionaire? Be a billionaire and buy an airline
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Roger
I was referring to the fact that analysts have a consensus forecast for FY17 and FY18 that is materially lower than FY16. The company is not saying this. Effectively analysts are saying we're now at the peak of the cycle...funny thing is from everything going on in this economy and neighbouring ones it feels like a trough in the cycle to me.
The best guide to future performance is last year and current year performance as guided by the company themselves.
Attachment 7652
Heavens to Murgatroyd !
What does the company say about 2016? Their analyst presentation gives some information and analysts take what the company says into account when doing their valuations.
What does the company say about 2017? [This space intentionally left blank]
And what does the company say about 2018? [This space also intentionally left blank]
And what do the broker/analysts and others see that to them is blindingly obvious but you can not see?
FY2016 is a year when a lot of ducks line up for Air New Zealand and everybody expects them to have scattered to some degree or other after that.
Analysts are saying FY2016 is an abnormal year on the good side and normal service will be resumed thereafter.
Why not have a go at doing an valuation or three of AIR? Consider some alternative scenarios.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger