I'm happy with the return from both SUM and RYM (with DRP).
1 yr 2 yrSUM 47% 21% RYM 44% 23%
I wouldn't mind if all my shares underperformed like RYM.
Printable View
SP certainly smoking it, $13.60 and little sell depth.
Historically if you held Ryman for 5 years or more you will have done very well with outstanding returns. That is why Ryman always appear on Boston Consulting's list of great global wealth creators.
However the returns are far greater when the starting point is cheap (lower than average PE) than when the starting point is 'expensve (high PE). See the difference between the 2003 and 2006/2007 starting points. I think that is what beagle is trying to say.
Hasnt been too many periods when punters have lost on RYM (the redcells) or got pretty low returns (yellow cells) ....but those periods started when the PE was way above average (or high)
pretty sure the numbers are correct
My conclusion from all these discussions is that over the next 5 years -
- RYM returns will be slightly less than the long term average of 24% pa - say 18%-20% pa (because starting PE is above average)
- SUM returns will be about the long term average of 25% pa because its PE is about average (fairly valued for the sector)
Yes thanks mate, returns from 2013 to 2016 were absolutely abysmal. You and I went way out on a limb and emphatically stated that we predicted very low returns for those years...but I give up, with that track record....many posters think we obviously know nothing.... Markets often irrational eh mate. Might go to a PE of 37 again (up another 32%) before 3 more years of extremely poor returns. History never repeats itself does it...(sarcasm intended)
If RYM's earnings grow at 15% per annum average their PE would have to stay well above average and in fact expand from its current level to generate that return. Far more likely their PE returns to about average (for them) and the SP underperforms earnings growth. Reversion to the mean. I think you might be about right for SUM and their average earnings growth for the next 5 years might be about that level.
Probable PE expansion when the market finally wakes up to a decade plus of growth well above the sector average.