I think the market may have taken dilution into account already which is why there was not too much of a drop today. I was a bit disappointed yesterday though i thought the share price would rise just like shares do before dividends.
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I think the market may have taken dilution into account already which is why there was not too much of a drop today. I was a bit disappointed yesterday though i thought the share price would rise just like shares do before dividends.
For those of you unclear about rights, I suggest you talk to your advisor, your broker, or for those DIY onliners, call the help lines that ASB, DB, etc have.
Apologies in advance to ASB, DB etc, if they get swamped, but hey, you do pay them brokerage, so you are entitled to assistance ON EXPLAINING HOW THE PROCESS WORKS. Dont expect advice on what you should do.
there is no immediate urgency, perhaps even wait until the paperwork arrives, and it may become clear then
Be careful with China... I live here and see whats going on around me.
They are building infrastructure they cannot afford. The reason for doing so is because big projects make the government people look amazing which launches them up the ranks of the communist party. At the same time the way the local councils make money is by opening up new land for development, pocketing money into their own pockets and the councils. Its pretty much the only way of increasing revenue for the local councils who are under (last count... so far) $11 trillion RMB of debt or $2 trillion USD based on construction of new roads/airports/subways etc. All of this is made possible through the real estate boom which has seen huge increases in apartment prices which in most city now sit around a median multiple of 25-45 times the average wage (NZ is 5-6). And almost all new apartment blocks have a 10-40% occupancy rate with the others being bought by everyone from speculators to mom and pops because they have nowhere else to put their money safely.
I live down the road from a "new city" which in a couple of years is supposed to house about 2 million people. Construction started 5 years ago and the occupancy rates of apartments there is 5% with shop rents literally the same or equal to those in Manhattan (and this is a tier 2 Chinese city in the far SW). The kicker is that nobody that lives in the "old" buildings (10-20 years old) can afford to live in these new buildings because the rents would be around 60-80% of their salaries.
I am telling you... something is going to snap here. Considering it is estimated between 3-5% of all GDP growth in China is due to building infrastructure/apartments etc... considering there is a fairly untalked about mass exodus of rich Chinese buying their way into visas in foreign countries (including NZ)... considering high up government officials are increasingly buying and maintaining apartments and houses in foreign lands and hiding their passports or claiming they don't have them... considering the increasingly social discontent as farmers and pretty much everyone keeps having their land taken forcefully by the government... plus considering China's 2000 year history of revolutions based mainly on greedy landlords ... it starts to look a little scary.
Masfen sold 1.25 million shares... I don't like it when good investors sell down on my investments, even if they are just having to rebalance their portfolio...
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/243357
he also sold a LOT at ~65/75 area. Lots of reasons for selling things blobbles, not all of which are sinister.
Thought it was the same seller, brokers selling technique stood out like canines nuts. i.e. Slip them out in the morning, then get heavyhanded in the auction, so he can tell Peter what a great average he got for him compared to the close
I have been to China a few times in the last 5 years.
5 years ago, the Western media was full of the same scary stories of 'ghost' cities etc.
I talked to one of the executives of a big multinational who owned one of those apartments and he said he will not move there until the lease on his government apartment was up. Cheap rent from government, see but he wanted to make sure he bought and owned a property. He said it was common practice by many of the new apartment owners.
He had a good chuckle when I asked him about the scary stories and he replied 'shows how much the Western media and economists know about China.'
Well, that was 5 years ago and China is as strong as ever.
20cent if there is another 911
2cent if a small aerolite hits our planet
Steve's right, new thread here: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...905#post438905
Sales will be low but i don't think it will bring the share price down. I reckon we'll get some other news with the sales report about whats happening in Spain/Europe and that they've hopefully signed another big customer.
Looks like Masfen is exiting?
Today's price action (like yesterday) shows one big seller.
Yep was in the last page or two i think. 1.3mil shares if i recall correctly?
With all due respect
If there is a bubble (such as housing in China) and it breaks,there will be some raw fear out there and the first thing investors will do is dump any shares that have a bit of risk(even if they are good) and that is, along with lots others PEB.
IMHO it pays to keep the finger on the pulse of the outside economy as much as possible.
I watched it happen to alot of good shares in the last GFC.
The only Yawns back then were from sleepless nights
Yes we got a bit off topic with this China thing-but 1 last comment--pick 3 or 4 health related companies and have a look at the 5 yr chart
We all had to learn once, for me its still happening as I don't understand the exact mechanics of how everything works. All I understand really is fundamental values and the methods I use to evaluate worth, which for me seem to work pretty well. The real market mechanics though is still a slight mystery, but thanks everyone for the constant education!
From what I understand more uneducated money on the market can only be a good thing for the wiser! People have to start somewhere and I could quote quite a few people bagging out ST courses and saying the only way to learn is to put money into the market. Did you only enter the market after years of research? Highly doubt it. The NZX is going wild at the moment and an exciting time to enter and start learning. Us newbies value your and the other regular posters input, maybe even too much (in my case) but your arrogance and need to belittle people asking questions only reflects badly on yourself Moosie. Why not add some value instead and suggest some relevant reading? Because often an elightened traders "simple" answer to a question still leaves us newbs none the wiser...
Thats the spirit Miner- We appreciate it!
It's true to say that the renounceable rights issue has been a dizzying milestone for many new to the markets.
Moosie seems to be getting a bit of a kicking at present so I'd just like to jump in and say that I've found him to be more helpful and accommodating than most. Maybe he's just having a bad day...there are others who deserve to be pushed from their pedestals.
And it was probably my post that caused all the hullabaloo regarding poor understanding of markets and trading. But making mistakes is a fine way to learn as long as it doesn't cost too much money and you don't make the same mistake again.
What does grind me is a tosser posting just to have a belly laugh at another's expense. If you're going to criticize or play the elitist card then follow up with some sage advice on top...or just save it.
Yeah agreed. I have been hovering over the sell button at the first sign of a significant sell off (I had pre planned to do this on the day before the rights snapshot as I thought the next morning it would dip and why hold for 13% when you can sell and re buyl for 20?) but it just hasn't happened. Sure a few cents slide but nothing of concern yet, and not enough for me risk a sellbuy. And if this is all under the weight of a larger sell-off from Masfen then it really shows a strong level of goodwill and optimism for this stock. Bravo!
Back in those days the first thing you checked in the morning was what the Dow did over night--then you checked your particular share and the majority of the time it followed suit.
Im not saying to ''jump ship'' or anything like that--just that those outside forces are another part of the learning curve and there is no such thing as a share being ''gold plated'',even if they deserve to be.
Looks like PEB has found its range until further news--I think yesterday was important in that sense.
I have a faint memory of something to do with percentages of shares held in a company. Can anyone clarify it?
If an entity owns 20% or more then they can declare intentions to take over the company. But isn't there also something about 5% or 10% ownership and rules around it?
According to the Companies site, when it was last updated, Masfen Securities were the biggest shareholder with 6.25%. Would the current sale have something to do with getting back under 5% for some sound reason?
As a general observation, holders of material positions (in anything, not just shares) in what are relatively illiquid markets, tend to transact in periods of high liquidity. IMO, a couple of these holders have used the recent window of liquidity to lighten their portfolio, particularly in $ terms. Sheesh, the most recent SSH was almost a ten bagger, and possibly Harbour too, but I think they might have got out too early. Remember Masfen also sold the earlier spike into 65/75 area, when there was liquidity.
I see nothing "sinister" in this, in terms of our well-being as minor holders, and on the other side, rumoured new holders of size, have been able to get their fill too, and possibly played it better than the locals, given its fallen gradually until going ex-rights
JMT's
The Tim Hunter article in the Sunday Star Times last Sunday had an interesting quote from Harbour Asset Management's managing director Andrerw Bascand. " We had been expecting a February/March start of the news flow and maybe six or twelve months later some real start of sales.That's all been brought forward."
So it looks like things might be rolling along a bit quicker than everyone thought, hence the support in the share price.
Looks like $1.20 has become a real resistance point. Given that $1.14 XR is equivalent to $1.22 pre it still seems pretty reasonable that the SP should fall to around this range if no major movements happen otherwise the rights holders are at this price by all accounts getting a "free lunch" right now (especially those that bought on Tuesday).
those that bought on Tuesday was willing to take the risk so they now are able to enjoy the 'free lunch'..fair enough isn't it
Another great stock to keep an eye on.
If it pays off.
I think DD and team should be pretty pleased with the capital raising thus far.
Turnover in PEBRC to date, as at midday today, is around 253k which equates to only 0.7% of total. Seems investors aren’t willing to let their valued entitlements go, what a great endorsement for the company.
It is early still I know, but it may also suggest that the larger holders will indeed be taking up their entitlements, there were not big volumes in PEB traded yesterday either possibly suggesting they may also be raising cash from elsewhere to fund their entitlements. Business as usual I guess, onward and upward.
It's not really an endorsement for anything.. its just a matter of the incentives not being aligned (yet) to make investors consider selling them.
If the stock drops below 1.14 then anyone exercising their rights has lost value on both their headline shares and the rights and I still believe such a retracement is reasonably probable.
why? why 1.14? i think only when the head drops below 55c then exercising the rights has lost value????
If the rights issue is taken up 100% (which it will), then yes it can be seen as an endorsement. An endorsement by the investors in the PEB story going forward. However it is a biased conclusion to draw though as you probably wouldn't own PEB if you didn't believe and failure to act on the rights (sell/convert) would result in a financial loss to holders.
I believe Whipmoney is more likely to be highlighting that we can't draw conclusions yet from the low volumes of rights traded. Have I got this right?
zy... Based on the plateau price pre rights issue of 1.22 / Mcap of $342Million, all things being equal, due to dilution the shares should trade at $1.14 post rights issue. So if the SP falls below $1.14 then you have lost value on your holding + allocated rights.
However with talk of how the big sell off prior kept the price down and the wide range of valuations out there (+how many people can't seem to grasp the maths of the dilution) who really knows what fair value is right now, I guess you could say it is what the market is willing to pay.
If you are a long term holder and believe in the science and the ability of management to turn it into profits then sit back and relax, no need to get too concerned over the short term fluctuations.
yes you r on the money vinpetrol
In terms of the viability of CXBladder, is it still a risk that CXBladder won't make it into mainstream because it is not approved by the FDA?
I've been reading some rather scathing critiques of the Laboratory Developed Test classification. One example being: http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/808084
Quote:
Pacific Edge is responsible for the development and determination of the performance characteristics for Cxbladder. Because Cxbladder is a Laboratory Developed Test (LDT), Cxbladder has not been cleared or approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). http://www.pacificedgedx.com/products/cxbladder/
I sense the rights price will trend lower over the trade period for them... Anyone thinking of selling their rights now and buying others if it drops?
why makes things so complicate LOL lets not calculate 1.22, 1.14 five cents six cents ouch...price up and down, quite normal...some one once said this is worth 1500 cent
those count on one cent two cents should go to BLT, VML
those count on five cents six cents should go to SNK, ATM
Isn't trading what you just did though? :)
I suspect there will be quite a few people ready to sell their rights as they may not have the cash to pay for them themselves, who are waiting to see what the price does. Any big movement either way and you may see a lot of liquidity... a drop today seems likely though at least.
My comment was based on the assumption there is a difference between holding onto shares (not such a stretch when they have just increased 200%) and actually investing more money into the company, especially given the recent increase means most holders will be overweight for was is still a high risk stock.
I’m not sure I’d use very short term moves in share price to judge the performance of a capital raising. That investment of $20.5M is effectively for the engagement of people and operational consumables, a big expansion of the sales team from 4 to 20 and for laboratory staff, although I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see this capital raising start to contribute significantly to revenues within a year, effectively if you like pulling forward the US $100M gross revenues target.
It seems to me that long investors are holding and are confidently further financing the growth of this company. And why not, with good management that have an exceptional track record of meeting targets, often exceeding them, it all bodes well for PEB.
No need to fret over a falling head share price during a rights issue - it's quite normal. If it falls further (say below 110), the Contraian investor in me sees that as an opportunity to buy more - either via the rights or a straight out head share purchase, rather than to get nervous about a perceived drop in value of this company. Its value remains, regardless of price movements this week and next.
Discl: holding and looking for a price dip sufficiently attractive to buy another parcel.
Interesting there was a 1 day lag--I think most thought it would happen yesterday
Sorry I should have read the whole thread to it but it seems this could be quite a little player around the $1.10 mark. Is it due to confusion regarding the Rights Issue? Might buy an initial stake soon.
6.5%..well, make sense...not a bad short term profit
That was a pretty cheeky little trade at the end of the day taking the PEBRC price down 4c on 400 volume.
Here's the link:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11152636
Just saw that in my morning report, no real data/news in it more a feel good opinion piece I feel. Interested to see what effect it has. Disc; holding and hnlikely to increase today
I think there is new news (although maybe I've just missed stuff!).
I wasn't across the Veterans' Administration opportunity which seems to be progressing well.
She said Pacific Edge was also working closely with the Veterans Administration, which provides healthcare to former members of the US armed forces.
"The difference (from CMS) is the VA is both a provider and a payer." The VA was a particularly lucrative opportunity for Pacific Edge.
"Certainly there are a large number of vets who in their service for their country were exposed to a lot of environmental things (such as Agent Orange in Vietnam) that increase the incidence of bladder cancer."
The talk about Medicare and Medicade was also the most positive I've heard (in terms of confidence of a deal being done).
Jackie Walker, chief executive of Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA, said the US Centres for Medicare and Medicade Services (CMS) - which oversees Government-funded health insurance programmes for senior citizens and low-income earners - was impressed with Cxbladder's potential.
"Together (CMS) cover about a hundred million lives," said Walker, who was in New Zealand last week. "So obviously we have to work closely with them and we're in the process of doing that right now working to get coverage from them."
Certainly enough to get me excited and expecting some price action today. Bring on 10am :)
Hmm true. Sorry, still in bed/half asleep when I read it, kinda forgot about the vets part heh. Still not sure i will top up but exciting all the same :D
Good call Sparky, bang on so far.:)
No $5 Rakon, but some $1 Xero :). (Confession: sold my Xero years ago and am kicking myself!)
I think I'm just aware that PEB seems to be quite "announcement-driven" so am expecting a bit of movement today. Today's media is a flag that discussions are progressing and my guess is we're pretty close to these new announcements.
This could be a catalyst for people buying in (or back in) in anticipation of these new deals. There will be many who don't want to miss out on the next jump.
I'll be more excited when the actual deals are signed, but this interview tells me these key parties like the product and it's just a matter of time.
Is that the smell of ink drying on paper I can detect?
great if it is, but I'd like to see some LUG's get behind it early on as well.
I'd say the article at least confirms that they're in the process of discussing deals. Just imagine if there was zero news for 3 months, compared to semi-regular updates on how active the discussions were. I'm sure it affects market sentiment.
I’m I only one who finds it peculiar that a local article in the NZ Herald should move the market. I’m more interested in the leap in exposure PEB are starting to get now on the industry news forums, I wasn’t seeing this to the same extent three months ago.
http://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle...l#.UnqysXCnqro
http://www.pharmacychoice.com/News/article.cfm?Article_ID=1122983
To be expected surely? A NZ news article with the stock listed in NZX will have investors and punters reaching for their phone or internet to place an order. An article in a medical journal is excellent for PEB's business but not nexcessary interest in investing in PEB - different audience.
Good for sales though then good news for s/holders, then more interests...
Interesting that PEBRC has had a good jump today (i make it 16% currently) and PEB hasn't moved much? Although this could be in line with the pattern of PEBRC buying in the morning and selling off in the afternoon, i guess with cheaper prices for the rights the traders are having more of an effect on the price. Personally I still don't think the nzherald article has any solid news/results/evidence of advancements to make much of an impact.
If i'm way off here feel free to correct me, i'm very new to this :)
/edit at these prices i'm very tempted to sell at 64-65 and try buy back in this afternoon.. i don't want to miss out on any more rights than I currently have though :P
Clip,
The only reason it is showing a 16% hike as someone pointed out earlier was that there was a tiny trade of rights well below vwap yesterday afternoon. That and due to the movements of PEB and PEBRC literally being $ for $, the percentage move will be larger with PEBRC.
PEBRC are tracking roughly where they should be against PEB ala ~55c difference. Unless PEB retraces after todays new enthusiasm, you are unlikely to get your rights back cheaper.
True and valid, silly of me to miss that. However yesterday head share was 1.18 and rights closed at 56c if i'm reading right (1.11) so a bit of discrepancy. Prediction - rights will close at 57c, head share $1.22-$1.23. Based on gut feeling and no analysis, i would recommend nobody to take any serious notice of my musings :)
/edit ah thanks Vin. Didn't see/read the below VWAP trade yesterday avo. Not sure if this invalidates my points above. Will leave predictions as a test for myself to see how close i am/aren't :)
Meanwhile, looks like Masfen is still unloading.
Interesting.
Reverse strategy to averaging down by buying on the way down, Masfen is averaging up by selling on the way up?
The 55c trade last night on PEBRC was an abberation (and a very small volume). VWAP was approx 62c. As usual, rights trade a little lower than the head share (dragging it down). There are normally more people that choose not to take up their rights (and so want to sell them) than people that want more rights (since most investors have enough already).
That can change however, especially as the sp drops to 115, like what happened yesterday when support at 60c held fast.
BC
And hitting the medical professionals audience too... Here's their stand at the USANZ New Zealand Section Meeting and New Zealand Urological Society Conference that's on at the moment in the Bay of Islands. Looking sharp. And more importantly hopefully getting buy-in from key stakeholders.
https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.ph...type=1&theater
Looks like the SP has settled around $1.22. Mmmm boring.
Balance....You should actually frame that quote.....In all my time spent in the industry I have not heard that expression before..Good on you.
I thought you had been in the Galapagos Is. With Mark Weldon looking for ferocious sharks and writhing eels and blinded possums and moths.And possibly Erics flying pigs.
Kindest regards........
PEB behaved like a defensive blue chip today, compared to a few others high on the ST popularity list......
heads and rights not even offering an arbitrage yet. Suspect they 'could' once the Nominee has been given the ineligibles rights to offer out next week. But seemingly good demand currently apparent for both PEB and PEBRC
If da man IS still selling, its not as urgent as pre-ex rights date, (or he's found a decent broker)