lol yes I wondered the same thing. Okay, CDC is an Australian business, so use the AU Gov 10 year bond as RFR proxy...and that is still 4.56%. How they get away with using 3.75% RFR is beyond me.
Printable View
Possibly using methodology / rates NZ Treasury use or some other sillybway
Rather pricey?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gip-c...122742238.html
In Milford’s latest missive to KiwiSaver members, Sam Trethewey writes glowingly about LongRoad Energy and how they benefit from the clean energy credits in Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. He recently visited LongRoad in the Arizona Desert. Infratil is one of Milford’s preferred stocks.
WCC floating idea of selling their Wellington airport holding
Would IFT take it off their hands (cheap) or just live with another partner?
Wellington has voted Green. So it's oniy a matter of time before they don't want an Airport on their books.
This will play nicely into IFTs hands.
Very nice of the council to consider selling its airport stake at the almost worst possible time (for them) in terms of a likely valuation achieved.
Further confirmation
"To date, LoadRoad has developed 3.8 GW of solar and wind projects. Management has set an annual development target of 1.5 GW, and in total intends to deliver 10 GW by 2027. If achieved, it will see LongRoad’s earnings triple and, due to the IRA, will require limited new equity funding"
"The Repsol renewable projects up for sale have a total capacity of about 600 megawatts and the transaction values them around 700 million euros ($747.18 million), sources said"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zara-...083951766.html
Wellington city council today voted to proceed with investigating a plan to sell its stake in Wellington airport.
I have a feeling IFT will get a good deal here, and whatever long term plans they have for it, whether retaining it as a long term asset or selling it, that will be a lot easier to do with 100% ownership.
They are business savy, but they also want the best for everyone. They may pay a premium to get those shares to have more control. Who
knows, airport may drip feed it to an investor.
PS shortly we may get to see a new high. I am sure people are regretting not holding this share over their dropping portfolios.
The sale logic makes total sense for WCC. Sell the airport holding and reinvest in a less risky Perpetual Investment Fund.
Are airports a good investment these days? Sure, the NZG needs immigrants in the absence of policies that boost labour productivity. However future pandemic travel restrictions and flight carbon and climate taxes are a risk.
I'm not so sure that Infratil would want 100% ownership of WIAL. After all, Infratil do have some history in the second-string-airport ecosysyem. . .
So whilst WIAL is something of a cash cow, I think a WCC exit might be followed by an Infratil exit. WCC can test the water as far as pricing goes, and that'll inform any Infratil decision to stay or go.
S&P predicted divvies for WIAL
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...073/404021.pdf
"Dividends, after adjustments for subvention payments, of NZ$60million in fiscal 2024, NZ$30 million in fiscal 2025 and NZ$43million in fiscal 2026."
The interim results must be due any day now. I'm looking forward to an update.
That was it :)
Would you look at that. Another all time high
Profit forecast has moved higher. I hope the we can hold onto yesterday's sp gains.
Looking good.
Looks good when their flagship Investment mentions
CDC is experiencing an unprecedented surge in demand for cloud and generative AI workloads, from both new and existing customers. This demand has seen CDC embark on an accelerated development plan, bringing forward 223MW of development across Canberra, Sydney, Melbourne, and Auckland. CDC is very well positioned to capture this growing demand with large campus facilities ideally suited for the rollout of multi-megawatt deployments.”
And another ATH Jeepers. It won’t be the last. Really positive result
Best managed company on the NZX. The only reason i tolerate the outrageous management fees.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421750
“In terms of our returns to shareholders, we will pay a partially imputed interim dividend of 7.00 cents per share, a 3.7% increase from the prior year. Over the first half of FY2024, Infratil has delivered a total shareholder return of 14.1%, while the NZX50 was down 6.6% over the period. For the 12 months to 30 September 2023, Infratil’s total shareholder return was 22.3%.
Share price down 4% :D
The CFO of Infratil uses Sharesies.
It is a very inexpensive platform to use I have to admit.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422129
And Sharesies now offering DRIP on Infratil.
As long as they are performing they deserve the mega fee
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423714
DRP strike price at $9.9557
CDC worth more than 3 months ago
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...251/410410.pdf
"One Giant Leap Taken For One NZ Coverage With SpaceX 'Cell Tower In Sky’ Satellite Launch"
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU24...5+January+2024
At the moment it feels like a boring share to own.
Small daily volumes.
" more and more sovereign wealth funds see infrastructure as a major growth area in their asset allocation,""
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-e...170046374.html
What a fantastic investment CDC Data centers has been for them.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/424962
https://www.reseller.co.nz/article/7...eet-ai-demand/
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425299
Bit of buying on market, increasing holdings.
I am glad that we had the likes of Blackpeter on this forum, but on Infratil, his jaded judgement has got in the way of purchasing a share everyone should consider in their portfolio. I am happy to have him tell me how we are all wrong, but history shows he has been wrong about Infratil from about $7-8 per share. I didn't go back any further on this forum.
It kind of reminds me how I felt FPH was overvalued at $10. I was wrong and mentioned that on the FPH forum page some time back.
Some people have said 11 dollars by the end of this year. I have much greater expectations.
Newfield clearly has expectations as well.
New all time high at $10.73 ($8,664m).
$10.75 was the high
Not so boring now....
Share price all over the place.
Wonder if this will impact long road at all
https://acore.org/resources/the-risk...y-investments/
Unlikely?
https://acore.org/resources/the-risk...y-investments/
"The Risk Profile of Renewable Energy Tax Equity Investments"
"Conclusion
The federal renewable energy tax credit program, with its proven track record, continues to be a driving force behind the ongoing energy transition. Through tax equity investments, banks will continue to play a pivotal role in monetizing these tax credits and creating significant liquidity in the market.
Renewable energy tax equity structures have protective features that shield investors from project risks and protect their returns even in downside cases. Tax equity investments are not speculative in nature and have a different risk profile than traditional equity investments, with their value driven primarily by tax benefits. The tax equity investor’s position is senior to the project sponsor’s junior equity, providing a priority in earning returns and avoiding structural subordination to long-term debt. These investments are underwritten to be robust and are structured to perform well under various stress scenarios. As recognized by the OCC, tax equity has more loan-like characteristics than true equity investments.
Moreover, the historical performance of exited renewable tax equity investments, as well as projections for current investments, demonstrate overwhelmingly positive yields. The risks from recapture, foreclosure, and bankruptcy have had no or significantly limited impacts on investors’ overall portfolios. Absent new policy impediments, the low-risk profile of renewable tax equity will continue to attract considerable capital from banking investors seeking stable returns."
“Senior Wall Street bankers are warning that a plan by US regulators to rewrite the rules of tax-equity investing will deliver a major blow to a market dominated by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp.At issue is the perceived risk of tax-equity investments, which are a form of financing in which banks provide capital to green projects in exchange for tax credits. It’s a market in which JPMorgan and BofA have been estimated to do more than 50% of the roughly $20 billion worth of annual transactions. ”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ign=moneystuff
If the risk weighting were to change for the banks who fund these projects then it may make it more difficult to finance Longroads projects?
Back to boring and $10?
Been a while since i've posted on this thread. Had some time to digest the investor day packs and watch the presentation. So a few random thoughts.
IMHO IFT remains the best placed risk adjusted public investment on NZX by a long shot. So many tail winds are in evidence, but particularly the AI growth into datacentre deployment, into data infrastructure growth and finally into green renewable energy demand. IFT sits across so many strong thematics / tail winds / growth areas. Beautifully positioned / poised!
Rate of increase in datacentre deployment in both CDC and KAO (not material in KAO but maturing nicely and is only a couple of years off of being very meaningful) is astonishing.
In active construction they appear to have more than 140% of existing capacity - that's not a pipeline, that's in active construction. The pipeline of owned sites plus the active construction is 350% increase against the existing deployed operational asset.
At the very end of the presentation, to help finance this the CEO of CDC noted that specialist banks in the US that support datacentres have never analysed a higher average credit rating across their client base and seen a longer forward sales contract profile than CDC and from a banking perspective it put them in the lowest risk data centre globally (not the lowest risk category, but the lowest risk of any data centre. So that's a pretty strong sound bite particularly when taken with their impressive growth - low risk high growth - hmmm - how many businesses have that?... That’s why IFT have noted that CDC is a core and growth asset simultaneously - it’s just incredibly capitally intense as it ramps to a gwh.
The renewables highlights for me - the development cover that Long road released for their 1.5gwh per annum target, they appear to be very confident that they had the depth of pipeline to ensure they would BOTH hit the rate of increase and also ensure that the final projects chosen would meet or exceed their target return profile. The depth of pipeline had grown so much the execution risk looks to be a lot lower than it appeared say as a BHAG style target two years ago… now they horizon for $600m EBITDA doesn’t look that far off and one can easily see it go to $1bn EBITDA within this decade… Gurin the Asian renewable business also looked like it's on a roll largely driven by the Singaporean opportunities that have ramped up it's near term pipeline to be 5 times higher than expected at this stage of its maturity. IFT mentioned its progress with some pride - so we should see that business blossom within the next 3 years.
The delta between their internal valuations, the independent valuation and the further negative delta to market cap appears wider than ever - and the new CFO is working with analysts to increase disclosures to help analysts improve their valuation capability and ergo close the gap to a perceived higher intrinsic value. This is always inherent within the long term manager controlled infrastructure fund but the discount should remain consistent and the growth of asset value remain discounted but inline with real commercial evaluations. I think that the core market cap has not risen as quickly as their internal assessments, so there’s a greater buy case now than ever…
They noted that organic opportunities appeared to be significant, easy to originate, in known fields and have higher returns in general than / vs inorganic and so we'll wait to see how IFT structures the financing of those growth plans - as their growth assets have huge potential and their core assets can’t grow sufficiently to fund all growth optionality. So we'll see how that plays out. Will they raise and rip into the opportunities or manage to milk the gearing levels given the quality of underlying earnings. One things for sure there could not be a better manager to support them through their capital allocation and capital structure programmes than MCO.
MCO discussed their strongly aligned position with IFT given level of equity ownership beyond their fee structure. They were intent on providing higher returns than their impressive track record as a badge of pride. Reiterated that their 10 and 30 year return profiles were basically in the top 10% of any fund in this space and only beaten by closed end time frame funds who presumably had one or two lottery outcomes - not quite the same as their record given the length of tenure...
Other items of note in no particualar order
The airport would be back to pre covid cash generating levels in 2024
One NZ delivered or exceeded IFT base case in recent buy out and was tracking positively, I still don't see the fit of holding a mature domestic telco - but they've made an astonishing return by buying an underperforming asset and releasing the business potential through divestment of towers, simplification and improved management in the core business. I'd prefer to see it rolled off - but if can be a massive cash cow both retained or sold down - and Jason Paris is such a strong leader hard not to enjoy seeing it steadily mature. I always enjoy the interplay across JP and GB the respective CEOs of One NZ and CDC and One tries to keep up with that datacentre business growth and shine bright in a galaxy of dazzling stars..
Concerns. Not many...
Growth pains, how to finance the optionality!
Eternally waiting for Galileo to make some real traction
Holding too much value in a large domestic telco - with substantial gearing - could some black swan event upset that apple cart and dent the trajectory...
Not much else.
Still believe if the NZ analysts community were asked their 5 year share price targets rather than their dumb broker fuelled 1 year spot price targets they'd universally say IFT and we'd see so much greater recognition.... hey ho, let's hope the new CFO can speed up the depth of disclosure and the NZ analysts can ask their clients to tuck away their portoflio's for a decade in this asset (yea right! goodbye broker fees).
Excellent post, thank you.
Thanks Pie. Good post
Thanks. I enjoyed the read. I have been building a small holding. Its one of the few nzx assets I have real long term confidence in lately.
Climbing very rapidly today. That is nice to see. Maybe another All Time high around the corner
Index buying ahead of end of the month?
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/IFT.NZ/holders/
A fair bit of stock changed hands after the bell today. Always a good sign when the Brokers are working after 5 to fill orders.
Interesting. It's been the hog's understanding that in NZ, post-market transactions are simply the eventual reporting of intraday position crosses and off-market transfers, etc.
Do you have some first-hand, NZ experience that gives you more robust insights or certainty into such transactions? If so, would appreciate hearing.
Close to hitting that $11 mark
link below makes for good reading, I refer to it often to remind myself how it all works.
https://www.nzx.com/services/nzx-tra...-a-trading-day
"Once the opening auction has completed, the market goes in to its Continuous or Regular Trading Session. This is the session that most people recognize as the market trading session. Bids and Offers can be placed, amended and deleted, on-market trades can occur (if a bid price and an offer price “meet”), and off-market trades can be reported to market. This session is continuous – with no breaks – from 10:00am until 4:45pm every trading day, and is the session in which most trading occurs.
At 4:45pm, the market enters its Pre-Close Session. The Pre-Close session is virually the same as the Pre-Open session – it just occurs at a different time of the day. In Pre-Close, you can place, delete and amend orders, but you cannot report off-market trades. Any off-market orders negotiated during this time must be reported during the Adjust session (see below).
The Closing Auction occurs at a random time 30 seconds either side of 5:00pm (ie, at any time between 16:59:30 and 17:00:30). Like the opening auction, the closing auction is a single price print which becomes the official close of the stock on the day. If there are no trades in a stock in the closing auction, the last sale during the regular session becomes the official closing price for the day.
The Closing Auction algorithm is exactly the same as that used in the Opening Auction. It will compute the price at which it can clear the greatest amount of stock, and all bids and offers at, and overlapping, this level will execute at this, single, closing print price.
After the Closing Auction print, the market enters its Adjust Session. In this session, orders can be amended, but not improved (ie bid prices can be reduced and offer prices moved higher, but not the converse, and order sizes can be reduced but not increased). Existing orders can be cancelled, but new orders cannot be placed into the market. Off-market trades can be reported.
At 5:30pm, the market re-enters its Enquiry State, and the whole cycle starts again."
A lot of insto trading occurs during closing auctions.
I also find closing auctions a useful tool to buy or move stock in the lower liquidity NZX50 shares where there is a quarterly rebalance.
Does anyone see an advantage buying IFT on the asx?
Thanks, that is the reason I have to date, the price of IFT seems to track the NZX price pretty closely.
If you use IB the brokerage might be less ? Of course you can’t buy NZX stocks using IB, which is a pity.
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php
Ift may test it's all time high later today.
Small volumes so far, but the big players normally enter the market later in the afternoon.
Jason Paris reflects on one year of One NZ
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/t...38c4-446239310
5g little monetary return
Fiber big business oportunity for wholesale to other providers B to B & B to C
Not going to loss job from AI,more likely to loss job to someone who knows more about AI
AI going to reduce head count & where to improve service & speed of improved service
Space X: customers able to text not just remotely but also if overseas
All mobile users even other telcos will be able to use Space x to dial 111
Mobile voice & data will follow quickly
1m less service calls.Cost $10/call to service.
Customer upgrades automatically.
Things that used to take weeks now take hours with AI
Self optimising standard AI use
Jason mentioned One NZ now worth $5b?
Not a bad return:$1/2 b for first tranch after selling of towers?
$2b for second tranch?
So now worth double what it has cost IFT? Maybe less debt
From Infratil FY2023 Interim Report
"Comparing the carrying
value of Infratil’s investment immediately before obtaining control to the fair value results in a gain on acquisition of $1,064.5 million"
"https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-growth-digital-infra-has-only-just-begun-bevan-slattery-1e7tc/
" The same applies to connectivity. All this data needs to be accessed, stored, processed/trained, re-stored, added to, reprocessed and distributed. Connectivity is about to enter the hyperscale world. Networks interconnecting data sources and hyperscale AI processing centres will need to be incredibly flexible, massively scalable, insanely burstable and 100% software definable."
" critical - submarine cables are to underpin the insatiable connectivity requirements to sustain this growth and why are going to be even more critical in the next 3 years,"
" why getting access to as much compute, chips, data, scientists, energy, and compute space is vital. I can sum it up in one word. That word is arbitrage."
" No one is going to complain about GPU or data centre pricing for the next 3 years because the cost of not investing will be a 10-50x destruction of your market capitalisation. If you don’t keep up, you will be left behind. Just ask Intel"
The replies are telling
"Cracking write-up Bev.
I caught the Acquired podcast's chat with Jensen Huang last week and wow, NVIDIA are just set up to take the prize. They took bets on new industries/demands 10 years before anyone else each time, and infrastructure will be the equivalent of selling shovels in a gold-rush."
"Another opportunity is to make sure all that growth is supported by renewable energy, or more importantly critical resiliency on renewable energy."
IFT now clearing a runway to $15 SP?
May be need to clear 1 or 2 business sales first to recycle capital?
If they can achieve 1 or even better the second one as well then?
These look like a very fortuitous buys
"Console Connect carries ~17% of all internet traffic and reaches over 150 countries and is the only digital platform that is underpinned by one of the world’s largest private networks and a Tier 1 global IP network that is ranked in the top 10 for IPv4 and IPv6 peering, delivering higher levels of network performance, speed, and security to meet the digital needs of today’s interconnected users and communities.
Accessible from 850+ data centres in 50+ countries worldwide, the platform is integrated with all major hyperscale cloud providers, including AWS, Google Cloud, IBM Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Alibaba Cloud and more. Through the Console Connect portal or via its API, users can access a broad range of native and third-party solutions.
In addition, Console Connect offers a wide range of security, voice, mobility, SD-WAN, colocation and managed network solutions that complement its Automated Services."
https://infratil.com/news/strategic-...nsole-connect/
One NZ
"With four international points of presence (POP) in the USA and Australia, we can provide connectivity to Tier 1 ISPs and cloud service providers across the globe.
We were the first New Zealand provider to offer optical capacity across all three international fibre optic cables - Tasman Global Access (TGA), Southern Cross and Hawaiki - enabling high capacity and high-speed data transfer to power your operations."
https://one.nz/our-networks/infrastr...rtners/assets/
How much extra data carried and income will AI require at little extra cost to One NZ?
1.2,3,4,5,6,6,7,8... X
I wouldn't have a clue myself but suspect big number
I've been looking on line for a new fiber Co One NZ may have set up?
I couldn't find it but found these instead
I've found this interesting what Jason was talking about in the interview
Hourua
https://www.hourua.nz/hourua
Spark, Vodafone joint venture to boost first responders’ communication services
https://www.minterellison.co.nz/insi...ation-services
RURAL CONNECTIVITY GROUP LIMITED
https://oversightsolutions.co.nz/pro...oogle_vignette
https://www.thercg.co.nz/
https://media.one.nz/aotearoas-new-p...ncy-responders
Nz 3 network operators to share network
https://www.tcf.org.nz/industry-hub/...er-portability
TNAS LIMITED
Allocating and porting New Zealand toll free numbers
Toll free number portability allows a customer to change their service provider while retaining their toll free number. The joint venture has developed a common industry database system known as the TNAS System for the introduction of toll free number portability in New Zealand.
If you're not there yet you will be left in the dust?
"How AI-Powered Medical Imaging is Transforming Healthcare"
Abstract: AI-powered medical imaging is revolutionizing the field of healthcare by helping doctors provide more accurate, efficient, and personalized diagnosis and treatment options for their patients. With the help of deep learning algorithms, medical imaging technology now enables medical practitioners to identify abnormalities and detect diseases with a higher level of precision and speed than ever before. This has contributed to significant improvements in the accuracy of diagnosis, the efficiency of treatment, and the overall quality of patient care. In this blog, we will explore how AI-powered medical imaging is helping to transform healthcare, its benefits and challenges, and the future of this innovative technology"
https://www.onixnet.com/blog/how-ai-...ng-healthcare/
All this hyping may bring blackpeter back. I hope so as I do miss his analysis on other shares, maybe not this one.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...K6HVBQI2IEJ4U/
Elon Musk predicts A1 will overtake human intelligence next year as long as the supply of electricity and hardware can satisfy demand.
Scary!
“Musk was backed into several embarrassing statements, and commented early on that he had “a limited understanding” of “what the lawsuit is about.”
- Not A Genius
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/elon-...b0d81853f9a766
There she blows!!!
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