Shrewd Crude, your summary of NZO sp movement these last umpteen years is the way the market see it as well,but it leave out the most important events that when included can not be projected into the future and then say a Hector discovery will have the same impact.That is Rita and Katrina caused a world wide cost increase on exactally the resources required to develope TUI. Also never again will the company develop three projects at once with nil income.
So a hector discovery post income will not send the SP down the same path as in the last upteen years.If anything a very different path will ocure. The market will this time be much more consertive,knoledge on how to handle Hector will be from experience from TUI and income will be incoming to take care of any extrordinary events.
So while i agree with the past summary it will not be very good indication of the future.