Roger, It would also appear that underlying lending growth is slowing quite dramatically as well, in spite of all this tinkering around in niche areas
Printable View
Economy is currently experiencing deflation in my opinion and is hardly going off like the rock star economy many were commenting it would last year is it !!
Good time to lean on a boat manufacturer for a good deal seeing as none of the farmers will be buying one. www.profileboats.co.nz I'm sure HNZ would loan me $100K with no payments till 2020 :D
Can you tell that I went to the boat show last weekend ?:lol:
Anyway getting back to being serious, I'm estimating a fully imputed final divvy of 4.5 cps up 1.0 cps on last year's final for a total of 7.5 cps this year fully imputed = 7.5 / 0.72 = 10.417 cents gross which on a SP of $1.29 gives us a current year gross dividend yield of 8.1% Prospects for growth in dividends for the next two years are fairly muted in my opinion but you are being paid quite well to wait for future growth when the economy is performing better so its a good hold in an ultra low interest rate environment, an environment that as I see it will remain for the foreseeable future.
Has HNZ become a dividend yield story now ?
Roger, from the Bank disclosure accounts I see your bad debt story is already unfolding
For 9 months the expense is a nice round $7m (nice round numbers in millions usually a guess?) compared to full year last year of $5.9m
The rate they are increasing full year probably $10m (more exact this time though) ....ouch
And that doesn't count any HER stuff
Yeah mate just a guess. All my regular mates and contacts think I'm a conservative old bugger thinking specific and general bad debt provisioning is going up rapidly...I guess some of us have longer memories than others when it comes to reckless lending policies of the finance companies pre GFC. Really it wasn't that long ago that all this no deposit lending got finance companies in big trouble, doesn't anyone at HNZ have a memory of these things for goodness sake ! No, lets lend to young people with a no wallet, no worries campaign targeting young people with no money, that's a good idea right, just like Harry and Lloyd from the memorable movie Dumb and Dumber, they're good for it right ?...(FFS shakes head and wonders what the marketing team were smoking at the time they had that idea)
You mark my words, EPS profit growth in 2016 will be very close to zero, (maybe even negative if Dairy stays really low or goes even lower and some of those sharemilkers with their herds as only security go under :eek2:), by the time the auditors force them to get real with their provisioning in their 2016 full year accounts. You read it from me first. Quadrant are good at seeing the over the horizon stuff aren't they mate !
Its become a dividend yield stock in my opinion. Still 8% as an shareholder has its virtues when you only get 4% as a depositor, thank God there's a silver lining in this somewhere :)
I'll have some hard questions for the board at the next ASM.
A finance company being conservative without the aid of their auditors :lol:
Cue... Percy's entry to remind us this is indeed a bank and as such is heavily regulated and overseen by the Reserve bank and they do as they say they will and this is one of if not THE safest company on the NZX.
Well it is a wonderful life for me.
A very pleasant evening,and a nice meal last night at the sharetrader get-together.and some interesting tips from KW.
A beautiful day here in Christchurch, made even better with great book sales.
But the icing on the cake ,is Heartland confirming very thing is on track, to deliver a NPAT for the year, at the upper end of the previously advised range.
Thank you Heartland for delivering on what you say you will do.
Heartland only working as hard as they have to to keep Percy happy .... so why work harder if Percy is happy and contented Jeff and his merry men say. If Percy was more demanding and asked Jeff for a bigger dividend for himself and his dear wife Jeff would probably deliver, they are capable of doing so.
I am very happy to grow rich [or richer] slowly and steadily.
Banks have a history of doing just that.
In the meantime the great dividends add to the enjoyment.
On checking yahoo finance charts ,I see Heartland's share price is up 67.53% in two years.
That is what I call delivering.!! Plus we have enjoyed fully imputed divies..
Could not ask for more!!!!
Slow down, Jeff I can't take too much more of the excitement!!!!
No, HNZ needs a good solid aquisition to keep it simmering along imop, the sooner this happens,with the likes of maybe MTF,the sooner the growth momentum continues. Obviously it has to be quality and at the right price.