it's a shame because I understand the delay on preparing and packing the order. My point is that they haven't communicated which could be an e-mail saying "sorry for the delay we are still processing your order".
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it's a shame because I understand the delay on preparing and packing the order. My point is that they haven't communicated which could be an e-mail saying "sorry for the delay we are still processing your order".
Best I clear a couple of things up.
Nobody is impeccable and infallible. Even the very best fund managers and professional investors don't get better than 80% of their decisions right.
I set a very high bar for myself and hope to get more than that but mistakes have been made, for sure, plenty of them.
I think it is extremely unlikely the shares will double in the foreseeable future. I bought this as a dividend income story. They had a good track record of paying circa 20 cps in annual fully imputed dividends before Covid 19 and I think they can get back there, which is 12.5% gross yield. I bought for income and only income and have no expectations whatsoever of capital gain going forward however (as with my HLG purchases for income in 2016) as is often the case especially now with interest rates at historically low levels, I would not be surprised if it was rerated when the market sees this 12.5% yield as sustainable.
Investors are really hunting for income and I am simply trying to get ahead of the pack and see what's possible here before others do.
My sense is there is a shift toward value in the retail market. If I can't be bothered paying $90 for a sweatshirt with a fancy Kathmandu label, I doubt many others will and will shop at places like HLG and WHS and get one with no label for $25.
I think moves to drive more efficiency in the business including store and head office rationalisations make sense to me.
They withheld their recent dividend, their debt level's came down very nicely before this with their very good interim result, they shed their problematic finance division a while back and they seem to be turning this ship around and are pretty well positioned with their product offer to meet consumers demand for value consumer essentials. Consumer basics do well in a recession. Disc: Its just a VERY small "nursery sized stake" at this stage. I will add to it if I like how things unfold in the foreseeable future.
You're a brave man thinking its all over and time to get back in.
"9-10% fall in houses is almost our baseline" reserve bank on Q&A @ 37 min 40 secs
43:03
good luck , big box retail is going to struggle as everything heads to online. whs is survival mode only at the moment
One thing that struck me when I read the half year report (when it came out) was that while Warehouse (red) sales were up 1% their online sales were down 10% yoy
Suggested to me that their online offering wasn’t much cop ...and that was in normal times. Post Covid more punters might go on line but there’s that underlying thought that Warehouse on line isn’t in great shape to capitalise on that.
Noel Leeming best part of the group by far
Thanks Beagle for the great insight.
How WHS would be impacted by the entry of Costco and possible Amazon online to NZ market in couple of years? Because you are talking long term and then these factors would be critical to the company.
Another note, we as a family like Kmart but still end up buying more from Warehouse, maybe because of more stores, marketing and better online presence.
Hi mate. My thinking is its a long established brand so reinventing itself has to be part of what they do. In terms of the share price, taking out the recent exuberance and pessimism I think as you can see from this chart over the last 3 years, its fair to say its built a base at just over $2 Attachment 11685 In my post I suggested people are "hunting" for income. When I re-read it this morning I read it as people are "hurting" for income and I really think that's a much more profound way to look at this stock. With ongoing restructuring and efficiency initiatives with its substantial network of stores in N.Z. selling mostly consumer staple items, I think with some decent streamlining its capable of being a very good income stock again and paying circa 10 cps x 2 per annum in fully imputed dividends.
Market penetration is the thing. Even K Mart are not that big in N.Z. WHS have about 260 stores throughout N.Z. and as a brand they're extremely well known. I see many people in a recession changing their shopping habits to consumer staples. Less likely to shop at Briscoes, Kathmandu, Rebel Sport and Haldenstein's and more likely to look for value at the Warehouse. Its a yield story for me. Investors really are starting to hurt for investment income and any stock that can reliably fix that problem is going to attract some attention in the forseeable future, in my opinion.
Anyway....I am LONG overdue to make a loss on something so maybe everyone is better to stay away and forget about this one and I'll be a lone Beagle pulling the sled along myself and probably fall over my own paws lol
The first part of this is true, that there will be consumers discounting down to value. However, that doesn't necessary mean they will be putting their $ to work at WHS, there are lots of places for cheap clothes..... what is WHS value prop to customers nowdays.... that is the ultimate question. Plenty of US bulk/discount retailers which didn't refresh themselves coming out of the GFC and lost alot of shareholder value...
My current view is 'on the fence', give it 6-9 months and we'll see if they can turn the ship north. Disc, not a holder