Many hours later and a lunch later
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Roger
No danger of that while I'm around :D
Nice little bounce in consumer confidence today according to the latest survey. What do you know...the world isn't going to end. People are still spending money on things they enjoy and love, like travel. Must be that whopping FY16 PE of 5.4...really expensive stock eh :)
Why I even embarked on this exercise I am not sure, but foolishly I did, and I have learnt a few things along the way.
After some effort I have come to the conclusion that valuing airlines is somewhat difficult and I would not rely on my own numbers to make fundamental buy and sell decisions.
It appeared to me to be possible to get widely varying results by taking different combinations of perfectly reasonable assumptions on a ten year time frame.
Whilst value variation on assumptions is true for each and every company it is more true for an airline than most others.
As a result of this I took the liberty of using my connections to have a chat about this with an analyst with one of the banks round here.
She basically agreed with me.
It is quite amazing the range of valuations out there for some airlines, the one I most often fly with, the highest valuation is three times larger than the lowest with a good scattering between (but it is not in the greatest financial shape).
So has a result here is the first and probably the last Paper Tiger valuation of Air New Zealand based on averaging out a number of scenarios
19-Sep-15 (current) value:
$2.925
30-Jun-16 value:
$3.007
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: This is definitely not a buy, sell, hold or even fly with recommendation
Reminiscences of flights past
Quote:
Originally Posted by
percy
Has your disclosure been approved for distribution by the PR dept of TIGER airlines?
I have actually never flown with TigerAir,
Though I have flown with the world's only one star airline who play videos of the Moranbong band whilst you sit on the tarmac for forty minutes with the cabin air-con off.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger