$107m net in the jar for the 1st half, but predicting $250-260m for the full year.....:)
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$107m net in the jar for the 1st half, but predicting $250-260m for the full year.....:)
Always a great company. Only question is, what is a fair price for the shares.
The current price is probably about right.
What's going on alokdhir ..... share price going down again after that boomer result
FPH rival has product quality and regulatory problems in the US.
https://www.philips.com/a-w/about/ne...ults-2023.html
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Think we’ll be seeing $27/$28 share price soon?
Maybe in lead up to results in May …or they might come out with a surprise update soon.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428415
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare updates FY24 revenue and earnings guidance
Auckland, New Zealand, 22 March 2024 – Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited announced today that it has updated its revenue and earnings guidance for the financial year ending 31 March 2024.
The full year guidance previously provided on 29 November 2023, based on a NZ:US exchange rate of 58 cents, was for operating revenue to be approximately $1.7 billion and net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $250 million to $260 million.
Now, assuming a NZ:US exchange rate of approximately 61 cents for the balance of the financial year, the company expects full year operating revenue to be approximately $1.73 billion and underlying profit after tax (excluding any fair value changes) to be in the range of approximately $260 million to $265 million.
“In the Hospital product group, there has been a continuation of solid demand for our hospital consumables across the product portfolio throughout the second half, which is towards the upper end of our expectations from November,” said Lewis Gradon, Managing Director and CEO.
“In OSA masks, we have continued to see strong performance from our Evora Full mask. We have received positive feedback on our revolutionary F&P Solo mask after the recent release in early markets, and we look forward to its introduction in more countries in the coming months.”
Revaluation of company-owned land impact on FY24 net profit
The company will shortly be commencing a scheduled valuation of the properties that it owns in East Tāmaki and Karaka, Auckland and in Tijuana, Mexico as at 31 March 2024.
“In preliminary discussions we have been advised that the higher interest rate environment and current zoning status of our land in Karaka will likely have an adverse impact on the Karaka property valuation. Any reduction in the value of the Karaka land would be recognised as a non-cash accounting adjustment in the income statement and will impact our reported net profit after tax for the year. The quantum of any potential reduction in value is currently unknown, and our FY24 earnings guidance excludes this non-cash effect.
“Asset valuations will be undertaken by independent valuers, are subject to final audit and will be confirmed in the financial results for the year ending 31 March 2024, expected to be announced on 29 May 2024.
“Development of the new campus will occur over the next 30 to 40 years. We expect to submit our application for re-zoning of the Karaka land next financial year and the approvals to be granted over the coming years. We have received an enthusiastic response from the local community, and all national and local authorities recognise the significant economic, social and environmental benefits that the development of our second campus will provide,” concluded Mr Gradon.
It seems just as well NZD stayed up ..other wise a downgrade?
Think I have that right ..is early and no coffee yet.
Trading on a P/E of 56x???
Cheap as chips then :)
I wonder what Couta thinks?
FPH always had a high PE ….some say deserves it because if it’s high ROE ….others because if it’s growth profile etc etc
Anyway here’s how the PE has tracked over the years ……based on current earnings …not forecast earnings
A bit out of date …the line has gone higher since I updated it earlier lol
FPH up 500% over the last 10 years. A quarter of that gain is due to multiple expansion. Thats cool
My thoughts too - FPH is effectively an exporter that reports in NZ$ and its main market is in US$ - a weak NZ$ should help it? (accepting that its more complex than than as it also makes product in Mexico). It does quite a bit of hedging so who knows if it has won or lost on these - its a zero-sum game at best!
FPH share price nudging 27 bucks today
Getting back to where it was a year ago and seeing better shape it could go to $30 in next month or two ……and then $35 by end of year
Quite likely
Index buying ahead of end of the month?
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/fph.NZ/holders/
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428702
FPH in trouble today ?? $ 12 mil downgrade !!!
One offs don’t count ..just normalise it like Fletchers …or The Warehouse
Not really a downgrade …so share price OK …...but punters might be thinking this is the beginning of a series of bad news …..recall, building depreciation impacting tax ….hint if property devaluations coming up …… what next I wonder?
From 24-7-24
This has been predictable,dependable & reliable ever since they listed.The rest is just noise.
"Heavyweight Fisher and Paykel Healthcare led the market upwards by increasing 68c or 2.65% to $26.30 after investment manager UBS upgraded the stock’s target price to $29.10, from $28.50.
Smith said the UBS report commented Fisher and Paykel had its strongest (obstructive sleep apnea) mask offering in a decade and upgraded its hospital revenue growth to 70% over the next five years.
“Investors are positive over the launch of its fourth mask (Nova Micro) in two years and they are fetching premium prices compared to competitors’ products. It all rolls into a new earnings growth story."
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...or+10+Apr+2024
Wheres Couta?
Weight loss drug is showing signs of reduced OSA.
If this plays out then it could affect FPH core business
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/eli-...-in-trial.html
What caused the big jump after close yesterday?
For Bars report yesterday
We upgrade our rating on F&P Healthcare (FPH) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM. Our analysis suggests a large long-term opportunity in the anaesthesia market. This reflects: (1) strong industry feedback, (2) large market size, and (3) current use case/body of clinical research, underpinning a solid market penetration ability (which we expect to grow through time). Anaesthesia products represent only ~4% of our FY24 revenue forecast but are at a critical point for investors to take notice, with potential for the anaesthesia opportunity to be a key driver for the investment case over the next decade. While relative valuation to peers is ahead of history, it looks fair accounting for FPH's superior near-term earnings growth. We take comfort in the longer-term anaesthesia opportunity which underpins robust valuation support.
What's changed?
Earnings: Negligible near-term changes, more material longer-term upgrades given higher anaesthesia revenue.
Target price: Increased to NZ$25.90 (from NZ$23.45) given peers change and higher medium/long-term earnings expectations.
Rating: Upgraded to NEUTRAL (from UNDERPERFORM).
Large total addressable market (TAM) but current evidence suggests relatively low penetration
Our analysis suggests up to ~270m global procedures using general anaesthesia/procedural sedation (up to ~120m in developed markets). Based off current clinical evidence, using Australia as a guide, and clinician feedback, the primary use case today is for high-risk patients, but we expect the patient pool to grow over time as more population specific evidence is published. Today FPH's penetration is ~0.5% (~1.0% developed markets), our FY38 forecasts assume penetration of ~3-4% (developed markets of ~5-7%).
Industry feedback is constructive
Feedback from 12 users of the anaesthesia products is very consistent: (1) physicians ‘generally speaking’ love the product; (2) usage is primarily on high-risk patients/difficult airways (use is ~5% of total patients today, albeit there is a range); (3) there is no real perceived benefit in other standard procedures; thus, only clinicians need it for a small portion of patients at this stage (particularly given the current clinical evidence); and (4) there is little/no competition.
Anaesthesia underpins solid DCF valuation support
We now assume FY38 anaesthesia patient volumes of ~8.5m (from ~5m), which drives ~+5-7% EPS upgrades. This underpins robust ‘cash flow’ valuation support, helps allay our concerns on the new apps consumables growth factored into the share price, and provides greater confidence in consensus' consumables revenue growth long-term. We expect the share price to remain constrained given absolute valuation and relative valuation to peers is slightly elevated, and thus refrain from a more positive recommendation.
Is FPH overvalued at $28.55 ?
A better question might be is the FPH shareprice likely to fall or increase in the next .... year?
As a FPH shareholder do you want to sell some/all of the shares held? No
As a non FPH shareholder do you want to buy FPH? No
If you are and index fund will you likely to be buying or selling FPH shares: Buying?
Are FPH shares tightly held ? Yes ?
"The group holding the most number of shares in the company, around 55% to be precise, is institutions,then insiders with 9.4%"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fishe...223622781.html
https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/...H%2BiFKqWBAAAA
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/F...ey-statistics/
So if its a consistently good company likely to grow its earnings
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...2630/finances/
What is likely to be supply & demand for buying its shares over the next year & what is likely to happen to its share price?
What is the likelihood of FPH SP dropping? Low?
Share price is likely to stay "elevated" is it not?
Its the "bumb" ETS money that has been buying lately
ETFs positioned on Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited
The ebb & flo of capital markets,shares to bonds,bonds to shares
Its the "bumb" ETS money that has been doing most of the buying lately.
ETFs positioned on Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...630/positions/
With TOP weightage on every NZ index ...FPH has automatic buyers ...many low cost KiwiSaver funds are pure index funds and they get regular flows ...supply is limited as not much retail participation ...Kiora wont sell ...
PS : Also read lot of talk about its high p/e ...I think its connected with its IPs and wide moat etc ...not directly with its earnings like one wud value TRA etc
Got excited this morning as it seemed FPH share price was going to rocket past 30 bucks ….but then ASX opened
Tomorrow maybe
Please don't jinx it W69 !
Sturdy result
Home Care:Dominated by Resmed.FHP strategy to have better product,right technology for customer,competive landscape reduced
R & D spend & new technologies constantly increasing
Anaesthesia /hospital products good potential,excited even,increased sales personal for anesthesia.
Dependant on regulators work flow.
Gross margins improving,lower freight costs(lower air freight) & stock levels =/- 50 basis points,a lot of moving parts,100+ improvement in Gross Margins over 5 years?
Goal 30 % operating margin,60 % gross margins.
Taken write down downs on land,product recall ,tax impacts in their stride,all out of cash flow.
Recall is for a 7-10 yr old product so assuming all acounted for in the $20m
Phone conference:Panel fully in touch with their business,performance & how products are performing.Transparent.
CAPEX;lumpiness,dependant on build in NZ ,mainly 2026,27.Dependant on requirements,building ahead.
Increasing OPEX across all the business
Foundations all there for continual improvement
World class
FPH caugh the Fletcher bug I note
+35% NPAT guidance for FY 25 is doing wonders to FPH ...:t_up:
Yep great result Alokdhir
I wonder if Couta still holds?
$17 Billion market cap?
it’s history of revenue & net income growth does not at all warrant a $17 Billion valuation. You can have all the IP moats in the world, but that doesn’t mean it has enough growth to warrant the current earnings multiple.
Attachment 15128
And prepared to protect its IP by putting its money were its mouth is
From 2019
"Fisher & Paykel settles all patent litigation with ResMed'
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...on-with-resmed
FPH share price on a roll ….over 31 bucks
Going great guns ….cool stuff
Crickey, RMD down 15% today
Apparently Eli Lilly posted a rave about their GLP drugs for sleep apnoea
Hope FPH don’t go down 15% …might need to lighten up just in case
For those investors that are worrying about weight loss drugs impacting sales.
With all the news about them it has lead to an increase in health consultations.These lead to health programmes that also include treatment for obstructive sleep apnea.
The overall affect for FPH sleep apnea products:Positive
https://www.pewresearch.org/science/...ty-in-the-u-s/
"So what we're hearing back from the sleep practitioners, and the weight loss practitioners, is that CPAP - which is the treatment that ResMed put forward to sleep apnea - is still the primary solution for sleep apnea. The other thing we're observing is that GLP-1s, if anything, are just increasing the treatment awareness for sleep apnea. "
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...AD%20%20LISTEN
Wieight loss drugs found to reduce dementia risk by half alongside treating addiction.
https://www.investors.com/news/techn...dementia-risk/
They do seem to be cure-alls even without those bonuses (weight is a major contributing factor to many diseases, aside from age). I think they are charging far less than they "could" for these drugs. Happy investor in eli lilly rather than restricting myself to NZ companies.
I agree. Even though it’s a quality company It has become one of the most overvalued stocks in the market. ROE is also not that impressive. It seems growth investors are ready to accept high pe ratio over 130. For me it’s scary. Other reason to stay their stock prices high is because of strong institutional backing.
Weight loss drugs ?
"Despite their best efforts, 80% of people who lose weight regain itand many end up heavier within 5 years. Why? Our bodies fight back, revving up hunger while slowing metabolism after weight loss. In ongoing obesity discussions, ghrelin is in the spotlight as the "hunger hormone" playing a crucial role in driving appetite and facilitating weight gain. "
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle...&impID=6666563
I've gone back to calculate compounding returns from FPH since when it listed in 2001
From what records I have it appears to be 12% compounding for 23 years if all dividends where reinvested
Any other offers?
So capital is 12.4 x initial investment
I was expecting 15% compounding but probably better than a good many NZX listed shares?
U forget how much negative the world mindset has become towards Pharma and its chemical products ...all are very vary of their motives and products ...all their products have very bad side effects ....people were ready to risk death but use covid vaccines ....Weight loss drugs and their benefits will make news now ...paid promotions etc and what not ...but soon media will be full of what happens next ...just wait for it !!!
Even the poor though cost the US alot in terms of diabetes and heart issues in the emergency room.
Fully funded for everyone who has a prescription would result in significant taxpayer savings. But you know, america is america.
Obesity could be removed as an issue in (all?) developed and some middle income countries.
While America stands out with obese people plodding along because insurance deductibles, exclusions and lack of coverage.
Livewire plugging their sleep apnea again
"A MID-CAP STOCK DUE FOR A RE-RATE
ResMed (ASX: RMD)
Auscap’s thesis for this founder-led business, which sells CPAP (continual positive airway pressure) devices to sufferers of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA), is built around ResMed’s dominance within its sector. Mumford emphasises its EPS has grown by 15% per annum for a decade, alongside a ROE of more than 20%.
He notes the large selloff of the share price in the last year – and again in recent weeks - in the wake of the perceived potential impact of GLP-1 drugs.
“Having spoken to many industry participants, we think the concerns are overblown,” Mumford says.
Reasons for this include potential side-effects of GLP-1s, treatment costs, and patient adherence.
“Feedback suggests that ResMed remains the strongly preferred CPAP standard of care, with physicians tending to view GLP-1s as an adjunctive OSA therapy to CPAP and demand trends for the CPAP sector remain extremely strong,” says Mumford.
“It also appears that the sudden focus on weight and health that has arisen from the GLP-1 fervour has substantially increased awareness of OSA, a particularly under-diagnosed condition, which is increasing the number of patients looking for a solution.”
He also refers to ResMed estimates that the potential global OSA market is approximately 1 billion people, with just 23.5 million people connected to ResMed devices as of FY23.
“ResMed is currently trading on a forward price to earnings multiple that is a significant discount to where it has traded historically, and even more so relative to the broader market, which we think is a great opportunity to buy in at an attractive price for long term investors,” Mumford says."
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...rm=READ%20MORE
"New Samsung watches that detect sleep apnea should be good for sales"
Todays Market Report ….. At home, market leader Fisher and Paykel Healthcare was up 50c to $32.85 –it was last at that level in December 202
That’s pretty cool eh
Wonder if it’ll get to 35 bucks this month?
Another respiratory pandemic around the corner ???
Or just able to perform more ops in hospital now???
Things going well for FPH
That’ll allay any fear that F25 might just be an ordinary yesr
Shares over $37 bucks soon
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...3.pdf🔜
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/436696
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare provides first half guidance for the 2025 financial year and updates full year outlook
Auckland, New Zealand, 23 August 2024 – Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited announced that it has provided guidance for the first half of the 2025 financial year, which ends 30 September 2024, and updated its guidance for the full 2025 financial year.
“The year to date has begun strongly across all products and regions,” said Managing Director and CEO Lewis Gradon. “In the Hospital product group, contributions include ongoing change in clinical practice, and a good response to new product introductions. In addition, early indications are that the year to date includes a relatively high hospital census during the period in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres as Northern Hemisphere seasonal hospitalisations persisted into the beginning of this current financial year and hospitals have returned to more normalised staffing and capacity.
“It is also pleasing to see the progress we are making with our gross margin improvement initiatives as we return to our usual practice of working on efficiency and continuous improvement activities.”
At 31 July exchange rates*, guidance assumptions for the first half of the 2025 financial year include a continuation of the current trading environment and result in revenue in the range of approximately $940 million to $950 million, and net profit after tax in the range of approximately $150 million to $160 million. At the midpoints of first half guidance, this would equate to 18% growth in reported operating revenue and 44% growth in reported net profit after tax, compared to the first half of the 2024 financial year.
Outlook for the 2025 financial year
The full year guidance previously provided in May was for operating revenue to be in the range of approximately $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion and net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $310 million to $360 million.
At 31 July exchange rates*, the company continues to expect full year operating revenue to be in the range of approximately $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion and now expects full year net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $320 million to $370 million.
“We expect the remainder of the financial year for our Hospital product group to have similar underlying contributions from changes to clinical practice and new product introductions. We have not changed our view on the revenue guidance range for the full year due to the additional and variable impact of Northern Hemisphere seasonal hospitalisation rates, which historically occur towards the end of our second half.
“In our Homecare product group, the new masks we have introduced are performing well, and we think this will continue to be an underlying driver into our second half.
“Our hospital products are market leaders, our masks for treating obstructive sleep apnea are getting positive reviews and we have expanding opportunities in anesthesia and surgery. We are in a strong position to achieve our long-term revenue aspirations,” concluded Mr Gradon.
"We are in a strong position to achieve our long-term revenue aspirations,” concluded Mr Gradon."
ONWARDS & upwards
So predictable.
You said it Winner.Do you still hold???
Seeing only 5 out of TOP 50 having FPH as pick in competition makes me wonder that we as a group dont fully understand its SP dynamics ...we tend to be simplistic comparing p/e with TRA or TWR etc while completely forgetting its intrinsic value ...its super wide moat and its very valuable IPs ...imo it will be better to price this company on replacement cost. metrics then pure simple financial metrics of eps etc .
I fully remember when in May 22 Hyperion Asset management from OZ started lapping up FPH while it diving down below $ 20 ...our Gurus or most were busy churning out ever lower SP based on eps etc ....now it has come full circle ...ONLY stock which has recovered almost fully to Covid highs as it seems Covid helped with find new markets and loyal customers ....lows were blamed on Covid rush going away and our leaders looking for $ 10-$ 15 ahead . But management was right when they were saying Covid will help them on long term basis ...Aussies believed but not anyone here or NZ brokerages etc .
Fisher funds took lot of flak for not taking advantage of FPH covid highs ...but they held on and now enjoying the run and long term growth ahead ...kudos to KFL having FPH as their largest holding ...its easy to replicate their portfolio but not easy to have insights like them about the worth of the stocks
One great company ie FPH has done full circle of covid high / low and now back ...similarly MFT will do ahead I reckon ....FPH had a headstart in Covid rush cycle !!