Nice bit of cash rolling in - lets hope its not at the expense of a downwards spiralling SP
Nice bit of cash rolling in - lets hope its not at the expense of a downwards spiralling SP
So we go from 3,3,4.5,5 (15.5)
to 4,4,4,5 (17)
Yeah I can live with that.
Seems $2.90 odd is a fair market price which Baker comfortable with.
HaHa better than my Air holding where it will take a year and a half worth of divvies at current price to break even, that's the market. PS-Now have a nice round number of shares in TRA and we'll and truly positioned at the sunny end of the tent along with Percy.
“on a share price of around $2.90, this represents an annualised yield of 5.9%
fully imputed." “
That’s one interpretation Winner. Personally I think that share price will increase to make the dividend lower...say 330 or 340. As long as the business continues to do well.
A lot of changes have been made strengthening Turners business model over the past few years.
These changes are now starting to show the board's strategy is on track.
May take a year or two yet to reach top gear,but it will.
In the meantime, the increasing dividend is the board's way of showing their confidence in the future.
I share their confidence.
At annual report date 31-03-2018, Bartel Holdings held 6,745,624 shares.
The number of shares held after bond conversion was 9,552,642.
The number of new shares acquired as a result of bond conversion was 2,807,018
6,745,624 + 2,807,018 = 9,552,642
Where is the evidence of a great sell down to manipulate the bond conversion price?
SNOOPY
Ruthless selling in late September culminating in about 600,000 shares crossed at $2.80. You think it might have been worth dumping about one million shares to manipulate the conversion price of the shares down to get 2.8 million cheap ones ?
Of course I don't know for certain who was ruthlessly and systematically driving the price down in Sept but its possibly worth noting that selling stopped a day or so after I suggested this might be referred to the NZX or FMA for inquiry. Trail of breadcrumbs is pretty clear in my opinion.
Interesting synopsis. For an illiquidish (I think that is a made up word because I am getting the red squiggly line) stock like TRA it would be easy to push the price down initially, and get momentum sellers on board so that you do not have to use too many of your own shares. Having about 89m shares on issue means you could theoretically use 890,000 before triggering the 1% threshold for holders over 5%. (although that would have meant good management of holding to have it in the .9% area, ie 5.9% 6.95% 7.93% etc)
Hmmm it could also have been a group acting in consort.....
I will preface my comments here by saying there is no clear paper trail I can find of 'market manipulation', so it would be improper to suggest that the likes of Bartel Holdings are in any way involved with such a scheme.
When a substantial security holder makes a change in their holdings we are used to prompt notification by the NZX of any such changes. I imagine that in the normal course of business, such notices are sent out promptly by the substantial shareholder concerned.
The question I have is, what would happen if a substantial shareholder wanted to conceal their moves? What is the maximum time they are legally allowed to take to inform the NZX of such shareholding changes?
If 600,000 shares were dumped late in September, as Beagle alleges, could these same sellers buy back those shares over the subsequent two weeks (for example) and avoid making any shareholding change declaration?
SNOOPY
If wanting something to read here’s a good management treatise on how car dealers win in the future (in the US anyway)
Turners might be better bet over time than Colonial ......best ecosystem wins
https://www.bcg.com/publications/201...203&redir=true
.
Turners are already "well positioned",with two trusted brands,Turners and BuyRight Cars,offering online cars, finance, together with insurance,autosure ,and service..
How long before Turners look at picking up the franchise for one of the Chinese car brands?
5 years?
Snoopy, many different ways to skin a cat but I've probably speculated more than enough already on the matter.
Interesting situation for some dealers though with SME business confidence hitting new 10 year lows according to the ANZ bank economist today.
Corporate Cars parallel imported 3 x new Audi A8's ($109K each) and 2 x new Audi A7's, ($115k each), (both brand new models just been released and the new model Audi A8 recently won World Luxury Car of the year for 2018) and the new model A7 not even released here yet. All 5 brand new parallel imported cars have remained unsold for many months now despite being priced at tens of thousands each less than through official distribution channels. Just imagine their floor plan finance costs :eek2: I was slightly tempted but have pulled my head in with the recent share market correction and I'll bet I'm not the only one. Interesting situation developing though and I agree that with the lower $Kiwi, as David Vinsen, (who is well known in the industry to be a good honest trader with a well earned reputation over several decades) suggested, prices must eventually go up and perhaps by as much as the 10-15% he suggested. I think with the currency where it is there is a bit of a tailwind to second hand car values at the lower end of the market. Higher end will struggle as people remain reluctant to commit in uncertain times, unless they have too.
Agreed, Good news about Turners value end of the market. Record month and I am pretty sure they commented at the annual meeting that August was very strong so two really strong months in a row. Is this pup finally starting to bark and if so when will the SP show some life ?
I have an interesting tale about a luxury car from the German bug group of brands parallel imported. The dude took it to an authorised dealer in NZ to get serviced. The NZ dealer got bent and twisted about it, took the ID information from the car and grizzled to Wolfsberg who used it to trace the overseas dealer who sold the car.
The overseas dealer got the "ziss is not permitted" speech and was fined his dealer margin.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
PS. I agree the A8 is a damned nice car. My worry would be Vee Dub have a reputation for "don't care not going to fix it" attitudes towards warranty problems.
Btw, last day today to be in to get that juicy divvy. Goes ex-div tomorrow.
Interesting post, thanks. I wish you hadn't said that, I might have to try one out now lol.
Makes you wonder what would happen to that U.K. dealer that sold out 5 brand new high value cars, especially seeing as they were models that had just come out, (they normally are barred from selling brand new ones offshore, rules around demo's are a bit more relaxed). Might have his distribution agreement pulled !
Not sure about the styling of the 8 and the size of the front grille https://www.trademe.co.nz/motors/use...7b58aac7a2598c
New A7 a more sylish bit of kit to my eyes https://www.trademe.co.nz/motors/use...cf1595cd330f8b
Agreed minimoke, Turners SP has been a real "highlight" lately hasn't it along with the milk twins...on second thoughts I think I'll give trying out the new A8 a miss and just keep licking my wounds.
Trading at $2.85 with a 4c fully imputed divvy going Ex tomorrow.:confused:
Its a sad day when TRA is the only sign of green in my portfolio. If it keeps this up I might be above water by Christmas.
Perfect weather over the long weekend. Hound was tempted to go look at some flash euro cars but then thought of the first year depreciation and ongoing expensive running costs and quickly retreated into his kennel and then thought a good walk in the Botanical gardens would be a LOT cheaper and better for me too. Lots of other dogs there to pat too.
Hope Tuners sold heaps this weekend. There's is a needs based business model not a wants based one.
Must be time for Baker to buy another big pile of shares at this price ...nearly 10% cheaper than when they were really cheap not that long ago.
My buy finally got hit, i have enough now.
Another newsletter ....plenty of warm fuzzy stuff to enjoy reading over morning tea
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...804/289229.pdf
By the way the site down by the Basin still devoid of cars
All set to open.
Looks good.
The signage on the container looks brilliant.
Divvy paid into bank a/c, nice :)
Some brokers refer to Turners as a retail stock.
I guess they would call Colonial Motors a retail stock too.
I think this is nonsense.
Latest new car sales setting another record in October, most probably proves my point.
Maybe we should think of Turners as a logistics company,moving cars from one owner to another.?
LOL then we can apply the same forward PE as Mainfreight right :D
I see new vehicle sales hit an all time record in October (against a backdrop of the lowest business confidence since the GFC) and very low consumer confidence.
Reading the tea leaves, what does this suggest ? I suspect their is considerable disquiet about the fuel price and a lot of people are out there buying a new considerably more fuel efficient car. I hope this translates right across the vehicle segment so that people driving really old cars are looking to upgrade to something second hand that's more efficient at Turners or Buy Right cars.
I'm not sure it does but I hope it does. Hope is a strategy right ?
More fuel efficient, not across the board ,sadly.
Double-cab Ute Nation | RNZ - Radio NZhttps://www.radionz.co.nz/programmes/two-cents-worth/.../double-cab-ute-nation
Trading my fuel guzzler V8 today for something that's still very nice and grunty but ~ 40% more efficient. Would have gone electric but Jaguar are determined to severely price gouge early adopters of the I Pace. I suspect there's hordes of people out there with the warmer weather and record fuel prices out and about doing a similar thing to what I'm doing. Funnily enough Mrs Beagle wants a double cab ute...I'm doing my best to try and dissuade her.
Why does she want a ute - is due to it being the "in" vehicle to have or so she can put the grandkids in the ute part and won't be able hear them moan about not being there yet :-)
"Utes are categorised as a commercial vehicle exempt from FBT, unlike a passenger car.
And if you buy the ute as a business, even if you don’t need to cart around tools or livestock, you can also reclaim the GST."
"In that same year (2017)we bought nearly 37,000 double cab utes almost all of which were diesel-burning gas-guzzlers."
Yeah I just bought a Ute recently. A 2.5L gas guzzling Nissan Xtrail. But I need something that can tow the caravan. It is also 4 wheel drive so that works nicely out on the farm and when doing wheelies on the river bed (sometimes need the 4wd if you get stuck) and out in the boggy paddock. Great fun.
Really interesting and pertinent.You could set up your own personal Bog Blogg :t_up:
Turners 'Autosure' is given a bollocking in the Oct/Nov 2018 Consumer magazine. Some quotes from the article 'Taken for a ride'..
"Mechanical Breakdown Insurance is heavily promoted."
<snip>
"While the insurance holds little value for consumers, it is likely to be a tidy earner for car dealers and insurers. Policy exclusions and claim caps mean the situations in which insurers have to pay out and the amount they pay are heavily ring fenced."
The exclusions mentioned apparently include 'design faults' and anything considered the result of faulty repairs. The cap on each repair can be as low as $2,000 and policy holders must still pay an excess for any claim. Not covered area vehicles battery, shock absorbers , exhaust system, catalytic convertor and brake pads. That sounds fair enough as these are 'wear and tear' parts. But also not covered are airbags, drive belts, seat belts, as well as audio systems and keys. Manual clutches are not covered, but it seems automatic transmissions are (? ).
Oh yes and if your servicing is done at a garage not recommended by Autosure, then your warranty is void as well. And it doesn't cover pre-existing faults either. Lots of ways here for Autosure to slip out of the payment on policy net.
"Autosure is provided by DPL insurance (Turners Automotive Group owned) , with DPL being behind three if the six policies we reviewed including Turners own brand cover and Marac Insurances offering" (that is Heartland retailed I think).
We shareholders look to have the best end of any 'Autosure' deal?
SNOOPY
Agreed.
The same sort of issues could be said for medical insurance,travel insurance, and as most ChCh residents will tell you, home insurance.
When taking out any insurance policy you need to understand what the policy covers.
Buy a new vehicle and the warranty is usually only valid if maintance/service has been done by an approved dealer's service deptarment.
A good number of vehicle buyers will find "Autosure" a peace of mind insurance.
ps.I was really peeved off I did not take the extended waranty the shop salesman tried to talk me into when I brought a new computer a few years ago.Offcourse the computer gave up the ghost two months after the manufacturer,s waranty expired.Cosumer do not like extended warantys either.
Its not so much whether the policies are unreasonable or not. We could argue their value either way. Its whether they are seen to be reasonable or not, and I think these situations not only draw customer pushback and destroy brand reputation but also attract regulation - all of which means they are unlikely to remain as profitable as they were.
There is a treasure trove of very diverse material on consumer, i recommend it to anyone who wants to save a lot of time and searching. From knowing your consumer rights , to reliability ratings on brands, to what heat pump is most efficient, what power companies are best etc etc etc. Even if you want to do the research yourself and wander up and down the rows of TV's at Noel leaming for ex, i think Consumer is a big advantage all round. happy user here.
When buying a motor vehicle, I find it best to take along the mechanic who is going to maintain the vehicle for me.
I know people like Consumer - if they didn't, the organization wouldn't be around. But in this day an age there are better alternatives.
Oh look. type in "nz consumer rights" into google and first on the list is https://www.consumerprotection.govt....saAr1zEALw_wcB
all big brands are reliable. And the CGA gives you the added protection for the odd lemon.
type "nz most efficient heat pump" into google, scroll down past the advertising and you wil come to https://www.canstarblue.co.nz/appliances/heat-pumps/ and if you go to the link above you will get https://www.energywise.govt.nz/at-ho...er/heat-pumps/ for tons of info
etc and you come up with https://www.powerswitch.org.nz/
I accept Consumer is great for those that dont want to do their own research - but they cant expect the best deal with this approach. The organization obviously has an appeal amongst those that think the issue, on say TRA's insurance is interesting. Those people would be better off spending their time reading theri insurance policy before signing.
About 58 tests, reviews etc on Appliances
PLUS
Life Expectancy
Running Costs
Product Reliability
Retailer satisfaction
Top Brands in 2018
I'm still not impressed. I thought "who worries about "ruunning costs"? You spend $1500 on a tv and you are worried if your tv is going to cost $28 or $31 a year to run? So within 15 seconds I had an answer here https://www.energywise.govt.nz/tools.../#!/television
Family and health 18 reviews /tests/articles
Food and nutrition 46
Health 35
Other 4
TECH
Home and entertainment 12
Mobile devices 8
Computers etc 21
Other 5
Money and Travel 73
campaigns and consumer rights 49
Plus many links eg to price me etc etc all on one website. Saves a huge amount of time.And to me another RARE place (like radio NZ National) where theres is no BIAS.
start a thread about it JT ! :p
Sure , when ive got time i will do that. Consumer needs our support and why not, where else can you find an incorruptible source.
Dems looks to have house but not Senate;)
Dividend yield at the current price of $2.75 based on company forecast of 17 cps fully imputed = (17.0 / 0.72) / 275 = 8.59% + growth in the years to come.
PE ratio just 9.65 and eps and dps growth in the years ahead and yet the institutions are ignoring this stock ? Go figure ? Any theories why on market turnover is usually very low and its so illiquid ?
https://www.marketscreener.com/TURNE...14/financials/
Is it time for the company to consider an on market buy-back of its own shares seeing as the directors all seem to think that they're such good value at the recent annual meeting ? Words are cheap, back it up with action !
We are getting way off topic - so I'l close with what was the final nail in the coffin for me.
When Tivo came out Consumer rated it as the worse Freeview tuner on the market - when it was actually the best that was available (even today nothing in NZ beats a Tivo). The difference in view was they didn't have the technical expertise to understand the product. And it didn't require a lot of technical expertise. Eg they couldn't work out how big the hard drive was. Well it was in the specs, or alternatively undo half a dozen screws and you would find it plain as day. It got hammered for its power consumption on standby mode. Tivo doesn't have a standby mode - it is recording 2 channels 24.7. Two channel recording you say - yup Consumer didn't understand it was the only product with 2 channel recording - other PVRS could record. To an external hard drive, maybe only one channel - but Consumer did not measure the energy consumption of the external drive.
Consumer rated MySky - but you couldn't even buy that - it came as part of a Sky subscription
Consumers list of recommendations included the Sommet SHD - NZ3. It didn't have a recording function. It was plagued with problems Eg stuttering with audio / video out of sync, totally lost sound and difficult patch / upgrades. Their top recommendation was a Hyundai. But it wasn't Freeview certified, didn't have an internal hard drive recording function, had one tuner and only had a couple of days of Electronic Programme data.
The review was an absolute and total dogs breakfast. Totally worthless. Looked authentic but screamed an appalling lack of technical and product knowledge. Consumer seemed to be driven purely by stand-by use on the back of Climate Change.
That review appealed to the lowest level of consumer intellect. It showed the shabbiness of theri review processes and lack of technical understanding.
I have seen nothing from them that alters the view that they are catering to a very low level of consumer (with due respect to your good self)
If you are clueless and need help buying a vacuum cleaner then Consumer may have some value. Which is why you should ignore anything and every thing they have to say about Autosure insurance.
The last shareholder notices that I can remember were The Chairman and The CEO adding to their holdings.The board have a lot of skin on the line,which is real "action",not just words..
Their strategy is excellent,building on their very strong business model.They know where they want to allocate capital for the best growth..They have "possible" large capital expenditure with the "possible" developements of Auckland and Christchurch super sites.Together with "possible" yards on the North Shore .A lot of " possibles" they will want to make "probables" so a share buy back would appear unlikely.So while the business is in a lot better shape than it was two years ago,and the future looks very bright,with a growing fully imputed dividend stream, the share price still goes backwards.
What should a serious investor do.?...........
Do your research and back yourself.
"Buy one and get one half price"...!!!!!...lol.
ps.Next divie is at the end of January.
The problem with Consumer appliance reviews is that reliability and various quirks reveal themselves over time. So they focus a lot on aspects which come down to personal preference and only initial experience. I use www.productreview.com.au - see the experience of hundreds of australian consumers over years, with by and large exactly the same make and model of products as available here.
I will start a Consumer thread so we can debate pros/cons. Apologies for the hijack on here.
Should be ‘perplexed’ about the current share price
Trading at 1.2 times book value which is pretty reasonable for a company not making much of a return on its total invested capital (including debt). Some analysts might say not covering its cost of capital
Heartland for comparative purposes is at 1.3 times book value.
Yet their nett interest margin is twice Heartland's,which in turn is twice the Australian Banks'.
[QUOTE=winner69;736649]Should be ‘perplexed’ about the current share price
Not making much of a return on its total invested capital (including debt). Some analysts might say not covering its cost of capital
QUOTE]
That is one of my dislike with TRA, as far as I can see the cost of capital and the return on capital are both hovering around the 5 to 6%.
For a while now I am trying to figure out why Percy likes this company so much. It looks like the answer is not coming to me just yet.
Not so.Turners as well as Heartland [Marac} have very few bad motor vehicle loans go bad.
Bad debts did increase with poor non-recourse lending via MTF.This has been rectified by Turners tightening their non-recourse lending citeria,so the "bad loans" are running their course.I think maybe another 6 months or so will see the end of them.TRA are no longer dealing with some MTF originators.
Also adding to Turners margin, Turners are no longer putting about $4mil a month of Turners originated loans through MTF.They are putting them through their own Oxford Finance.
From Market Screener TRA's ROE is 11.3%
'
It amuses me looking at the depth chart over the last while, the SP just can't get any traction yet you have a long list on the sell side, not too savvy them sellers.Lol
9 months was what Aaron said 3 months ago at the ChCh presentation.
As the agm was after the presentation maybe they revisited the time frame.
What is important is three fold.
1] Non recourse loans criteria tightened.
2]MTF originators sorted?
3]$4mil a month of TRA's originated loans now being put through Turners' Oxford Finance,rather than MTF, with resulting better margin for TRA.
What was not disclosed was the value of these poor loans,or the expected losses from them.
Disappointing,but lesson learnt.They woke up to the problem quickly so I take them as a "one off",and Turners "terms of trade" with MTF and their originators have been clarified.
I find it interesting that both Turners and Heartland now want to be involved right at the start of any loan application.The day of a third party [originator] OKing a loan and then passing it on to Turners or Heartland is over.This will result in even fewer poor loans.
Huge rally in US markets overnight...wonder if this pup will finally bark... even a little bit ?