grrr all these sellers appearing at $1.30 again... sighs...
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grrr all these sellers appearing at $1.30 again... sighs...
Cheers guys, it sounds a bit messy re the over subscriptions, if many apply I guess we could get an extra ten shares or so.
.....just picked up another 35000 with every intention of taking up rights entitlement. Although on paper there will be a dilutionary effect, I somehow doubt it will get noticed much (if at all).......dont forget the company is at the same time getting an injection of capital ( more money in the bank, so to speak). If the SP pulls back a little? it will quickly bounce back in my opinion.........we tend to focus on whats in front of us (SP) not what's behind the covers.
Pretty interesting that the Masfen's have been selling down like that. All of the shares that they were holding were 'free', as they made enough to cover them when they sold a chunk at 65 cents. Having Anatole on as a director of PEB also means that he has a fair idea (probably better than most) of how the company is going. This doesn't ring alarm bells, as people have all sorts of reasons for selling shares, but it does make you think.
As an Advanced Beginner in the share market PEB and the Share Trader Forum have certainly added greatly to my knowledge in the last week!
Aside from various technical matters that people have helped clarify it has been very rewarding learning the different ways that investors and traders think. And how major upswings are followed by corrections and swings before settling. And how things like preliminary news and Rights issues affect the share price.
This one I'm staying in as an investor but I've definitely gained far more knowledge for future share purchases.
Likewise with myself, Merc. This is my first post, but I've been lurking around many of the threads just trying to absorb and learn what I can :)
Still very early days in terms of investing for me (it all kicked off within the last month), but bought a parcel of PEB shares amongst a few others, so here's hoping I get off to a positive start!
Now back to watching from the shadows..
Welcome Latama...One thing I've learned is the amateurs do their buying in the morning and push the price up and the pro's leave it til the last minute at 5pm to purchase (when the amateurs start to get nervous) and push the price back down again. The only time to take notice of the share price is at the end of the day (unless there is something big happening ... when, if you leave it late, you'll get caught paying a high price ... or totally miss the boat!).
Yes, I have also learnt that one (the hard way!)
I organized a share purchase for my mother on the morning PEB started its stella climb (excellent timing), a later purchase a day or two later for me SHOULD have been left to the afternoon - or better yet the afternoon 3 days later. But it is all part of the learning curve and I'm still showing a very good paper profit thanks to 2 earlier purchases.
I asked my brother-in-law, who is a GP, what his thoughts were in regards to Cxbladder and investing in PEB. These were his comments:
Disclosure: Holding (and not planning on selling anytime soon)Quote:
For a screening test to be useful, the following points apply:
- The test must be easy to administer - Cxbladder is
- The test must be cheap - As it is a screening test, we are trying to pick up people (the general population) with suggestion of cancer. I'm not sure how much it costs...
- The disease must be easily treatable in the early stages, e.g. like breast cancer. We have two-yearly mammograms for women. We see a lump and we proceed onto biopsy or further confirmation tests. The lump/breast is relatively easy to remove, unlike the bladder. Bladder cancer is fairly easy to de-bulk (remove) but still requires adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation, be it brachytherapy or otherwise.
- The disease must be prevalent - Bladder cancer is not. Unsure of why the Spaniards have so much of it - perhaps they use heaps of naphthalene dye? Not sure. But overall, bladder cancer is low on our list, unlike breast, colon and prostate cancers.
- Accuracy is a moot point because we always proceed to tissue biopsy for a definitive answer. No urologist would deny a cystoscopy based on the urine test. Cystoscopy is simple, easily accessible and relatively cheap to perform with a high yield of diagnosis.
So as a screening test, it does not fit the criteria for general public use.
The other scenario is a patient comes in for a check-up. We do a urine test to check for glucose, e.g. diabetes, but low and behold blood shows up... (blood tends to be present in bladder cancer), so we go on and analyse the urine more thoroughly and image the renal tract/bladder and prostate to see if there is a mass. Depending on those results, we may refer to the urologist who will then do a cystoscopy.
What if we perform the Cxbladder test at the initial stages? The likelihood is that if positive, we will do EXACTLY the same protocol and end up with a cystoscopy, the reason being that IF the test was positive, knowing a specificity of 85%, I would not be happy because I would miss almost 1 in 5-6 patients who actually HAVE cancer and were negative on the test. I would sleep better if someone actually had a quick peep at the bladder to check for sure.
So the value as an adjunct test is also not that great, hence I see this as a risky product to float.
CE this is easily the most informative post on this share that I have read and it reflects a question I asked way back in an earlier post - has anyone met a person with bladder cancer? or something similar. Tossing around the possibility of millions of people needing this process will always be an exaggeration.
Thanks CE, I'd be interested to hear your BIL's response to
When referring to a medical test, specificity refers to the percentage of people
who test negative for a specific disease among a group of people who do not have
the disease. No test is 100% specific because some people who do not have the
disease will test positive for it (false positive).
If I understand correctly, CxBladder diagnosed 100% of cancers in the clinical trials
The 85% specificity refers to false positives not false negatives (which seemingly are nil) So in my mind your BIL can sleep peacefully (other than maybe worrying about his lack of understanding of the relevant medical terms perhaps:)
And here we go again. Cxbladder picked up several cases of bladder cancer that cystoscopy did not. Fact
If what your brother-in-law says is correct, then why would anybody be interested in Cxbladder at all? I can understand the bit about bladder cancer not being as prevalent as other cancers which would therefore affect sales volumes of Cxbladder, but to say it's not useful as a screening test or adjunct test seems strange given all the interest from the medical profession. Surely if it wasn't a useful, cost-effective test, there would be no interest in it?
This is exactly why I have told people that this thing isn't 100% sure. You need to convince doctors to buy the thing and it needs to be done in a way that they perceive it adds value to a tried and true method. If they perceive it does not, they won't go through the extra process to buy it/sell it/recommend it. Hence it most certainly is not a sure thing that sales will follow, no matter how many insurers back it up.
Regarding Minerbarejets comment, they may recommend it only for cases where they have done a cystoscopy, have not found any other problems (remember 95% of cases of hematuria are something other than bladder cancer) and therefore still cannot explain the hematuria. This then dramatically reduces the market size to 5-20% of my estimated projections as, I believe, my market size estimations were for people that presented with hematuria.
Despite a lot of peoples conviction around CxBladder, its not a sure thing. There is a reason they need to hire sales people, as even they believe it is highly unlikely sales will flow just because the product exists and is sitting on the shelf. Another thing I have found to be interesting is, despite a number of user programs having been completed or in process, no medical professional or organisation has yet appeared to come out with a statement saying "CxBladder adds a lot of value to current methods and we are eager to incorporate it into our testing for all patients with hematuria" or something similar from a customer perspective. We only have statements talking about potentials. I do hope these type of statements come out, but the lack of them is an ongoing concern for me from a risk perspective.
..........your'e clearly sounding like someone desperately trying to ramp down this stock BOBBLES??? For starters can you quote anyone who has stated this is going to be a "100% sure thing"?.....of course you cant......AND why wud it need to be anyway.......is there any business model out there that is? It is well understood that for Cx to be successful (along with PEBs other prooducts)...a strike rate of anything from 5-20% WILL translate into a strong and highly profitable business......i believe DavidDarling and his (already succesful) team
will make this happen, after all they have already clearly demonstrated their combined abilities and commitment to get it this far (HUGE) .....in fact if i cud be so bold as to suggest 70-80% of the real hard work has now been done and signed off?
You also question why they need sales people out there promoting the product
.......um isnt this what just about every company on the planet does.......especially as a start-up??
COMMON.BUSINESS.SENSE.
Just had a read of Tim Hunter's column in the Sunday Star Times. He is renowned for his negative comments on anything that appears risky, but he writes what most of us already know (but some clearly don't want to believe unfortunately). I liked his last paragraph where he believes PEB will justify its share price a lot easier than XRO can. Finally, someone who actually is prepared to publicize what I (& a number of others) have been saying for ages.
For all the naysayers on this thread, can I suggest you start another thread. You clearly don't seem to understand what a true investment looks like. But I'll tell you what, if you are not in PEB VERY SOON, you will be paying an expensive price to get in.
This week I sunk considerable funds into CDY as well a year ago putting funds into PEB which is my largest holding. I figure firstly as PEB pipeline of IP comes to fruition it can only benifit CDY with royalties.
It's been talked of in the past but globally kiwi firms lead innovation but sell out to early - my belief is a major multinational will attempt to control PEB once they solidify their business into a proven commercial biotech that insurance firms are all over, we are seeing the entree into their potential.
Agree with the post that the price of PEB is easier to justify than xro.
Four years $5 min !!!! DYOR
Dentie, and others, this is a share trading, dealing forum for people who, for one reason or another, want to make money or secure their future or whatever. I am an old man and I can play the game for fun or whatever. Ihave the house, the land, the car, the ute, the boat, all freehold and a wife of fifty years who is almost paid off and we both enjoy cracking good health. PEB will be successful when it starts putting money in the SHAREHOLDERS pockets at a higher rate than banks etc. At the moment, it is just another test for a disease that is less than common and the company is likely to use a significan part of any return they get to finance further research and so on. If you get any return within three years you will be lucky and I am aware of several other potential cancer cures under research around the world. If one of those comes into play then peb could be just another brick in the wall.
Blobbles on his post on sep 19th said he would only sell his share at 15dollar. Talk it up before the huge announcement and now becomes a unbliever? I guess its because he has sold and want to get in again ;-). Its ok. This is typical what some traders do on public forum. Btw, On Otc23th he said:
### I also like Davids comment on the $100 million revenue target: " It's a very doable target, and could come sooner Generally I have found he says stuff like this when other people would says stuff like We will definitely do that in less than the time stated.".
New learners be awared ;-) I am ok.
Congrats on your open statement of wealth Craic ... well done, but sorry you have still to pay off the wife though (:confused:). Did you get all the toys freehold by your own business success or share investing - or what the bank paid you? Incidentally, what the banks have been paying since 2009 has been next to zero (after tax and CPI of course) so its not going to take much to beat that. In my view, your comment re it is about how much and when PEB starts putting money in the shareholder's pockets is typical of an investor (trader??) who thinks it is all about them. That attitude (to me) is more about self indulgent greed than it is about supporting a company that has wholesome intentions around doing good about some of the problems facing humanity. It is people's focus on self fulfilling financial greed that keeps causing these financial meltdowns every 7 years or so. If the focus was on helping our society in the areas of medicine etc by supporting the companies that have the expertise to bring it off, then you will make heaps of the money you desire - by default. The fact that you see the share market as a "game" really worries me as it is precisely this type of cavalier attitude that brings whole markets down.
Why are you still trying to play the game if you already have all the toys Craic? Are you still not satisfied?
Well Winner, Blobbles used to be my hero until the posts started becoming forked.
I make no apology for being a keen advocate of what PEB is trying to achieve ...and seems to be methodically doing that. My hero's are other poster's who seem to be making sense - based on each de-risking event that PEB achieves along the road. Now Tim Hunter also seems to be a believer. I am learning too - like most of us on here, but it gets tiresome waiting for the next naysayer's comments - based of course on the rapidly declining risks to PEB's pathway. I do wonder whether those naysayers are buying more shares. Or, are they believing their own comments and de-risking their own positions by selling?
........by far the biggest current risk attached to PEB is NOT owning any. In my opinion they will double in value in under 12mnths......and Ive put big money on it!!
Citizen - Really appreciate you taking the time to post your contact's feedback.
I have to say however, 85% specificity doesn't mean the the test misses the presence of cancer 15% of the time. Specificity refers to false positives, so how often the test results conclude that the patient has cancer when in fact they are totally healthy. Although its mildly annoying, you're less likely to lose sleep if you've told someone they're sick when it turns out they're not, than the reverse.
It is sensitivity which refers to the true positive rate, of which, we know cxBladder is extremely accurate - cxbladder sees 100% of T1, T2, T3, Tis and greater than 95% of high grade tumours. (This is old news now!)
With this in mind, here's one specific opportunity I can see. From the article posted by Pacific Edge recently "American Urological Association call for both cystoscopy and upper urinary tract imaging for anyone older than 35 years with hematuria"(1) Yet evidence tells us that "About 9 out of 10 people with this cancer are over the age of 55, and the average age at the time of diagnosis is 73" (2) We also know that a history of smoking can increase the chances of bladder cancer, as can simply being male.
So if you had a 40 year old woman presenting hematuria with no history of smoking - there's an opportunity there to avoid the cystoscopy completely and use cxbladder to rule out the presence of bladder cancer. This would in my view negate the issue of the relatively 'low incidence of bladder cancer' raised by craic. I would have thought it is the number of people presenting blood in their urine that require the check that's important here, not necessarily the actual incidence of the cancer itself.
1. http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/813239
2. http://www.cancer.org/cancer/bladder...key-statistics
Yes, a friend of mine. Dealt with bowel cancer only to find that it had spread further to the bladder.
And on the subject of bowel cancer...
My brother-in-law was diagnosed with bowel cancer when he was around 50, fortunately at the stage where it could be fixed (partial removal, chemo, restricted diet - no spicy food - for life). This then led to family testing.
The first time my other half went in for a colonoscopy the doctor said, "Nice timing" as they had harvested some small polyps (under a certain size they are benign, bigger there is x% risk of them becoming cancerous). The result is two year colonoscopies to keep the things at bay - and yes, they have found and removed more each time they have done it.
Whilst two yearly colonoscopies are needed due to the polyps - what about our kids?
Both daughters are now late 20s and their one test to date came up negative. But in the future? Somehow I can't see either of them subjecting themselves to the invasive procedure "just in case" for the next 20 or 30 years. A regular test such as CXBladder only for bowels is non-invasive and far more likely to get done on a regular basis!
Now think Bladder cancer. If family history is there...
Risk. Every endeavour contains a certain amount of risk. And the greater the risk the higher chance of rewards as there is always the possibility that it will crash and burn.
From a project management perspective acknowledging and accepting risk gives you a far greater chance of minimizing it.
With shares this may mean a balance in the portfolio between high, medium and low risk shares. Or perhaps learning about trading (the swings between high and low) to reduce the capital involved whilst still keeping the same volume of shares)
Personally I LIKE the comments pointing out the risks as well as the ones pointing out the positives. They help keep the perspective in balance.
Thanks, Poet, Minerbarejet and AndyLP for the points you raised. I'll go back to my brother-in-law to see if he has anything else to add.
There are reportedly 383,000 cases of bladder cancer, worldwide - as I said before when this company starts putting more cents-perdollar in the investors pocket than the local bank then it becomes interesting, meanwhile You have to die of something and for most of us, bladder cancer is well down the ranks.
I am holding the stock GR8DAY, I have been for over a year now and have only been topping up. However, I did sell some at $1.50, enough to cover participating in the rights issue. You can claim that I don't all you want, it doesn't bother me, but I have about half of my savings sitting in PEB shares and when/if they succeed, I will be a happy chappy! I absolutely want them to succeed, but they won't be successful until they are. Right now we have no numbers that tell us doctors are buying or stocking them. We also have a doctor telling us that they probably would not buy it. So the product is still a risk in anyones book and if you ignore such risks, it will be to your own folly now or in the future.
If the product was completely de-risked, it would be selling for at least $10. Why isn't it? Because other people understand (professional investors etc) that something could go wrong before it gets sales. That could be anything from being politically torpedoed to doctors simply not buying it and justifying it medically.
When they start performing, and I believe they will, I will be happy as a pig in mud and my posts will certainly reflect that. But I don't want people who rely on sharetrader for investment advice to be betting their house on things as I have seen elsewhere (like the guy in DIL) when they aren't aware of risks of that investment. And when I see pages and pages of posts from people who are talking about the upsides but no downsides, it scares me a little.
Again, when the sales flow, you will be hearing me back on the positive side of things. But right now this thread needs some naysayers to balance it from a risk perspective.
I sold 4% of my PEB holding the other week (@ $1.59) - equal to 26% net yield on my investment (the 4%). I will be using these funds to purchase my full rights entitlement. No bank (least of all my local bank) can give me a 26% net return on my investment - whilst, at the same time, giving me the right to increase my PEB holding by another 44,000 shares (at a 44% discount!).
Craic, without trying to be smart here, if you are waiting for a dividend yield on this stock - perhaps you are holding the wrong stock. Maybe you should be holding RYM? Dividends will come in time, but to me, PEB is a red-hot growth stock - meaning yield over time.
Again, by worrying about getting dividends out of the likes of PEB - this would actually be working against the best interests of the company. They need to retain their earnings to help fund their inevitable growth, not pay dividends until they are very well established and producing ongoing growing profits.
Every stock is a dividend stock or a dud - the money you make trading in this one is pure luck and the fact that there are bigger mugs out there willing to pay over the odds to you . As to the rights issue as others have pointed out this is just a dilution - the same pie made into smaller pieces. I will now remain silent on this subject for a period of one year and concentrate on making my fortune from real investments.
Without needing a Cxbladder type test for investor "irritation", I can sense that with the rising $'s of investors in PEB so is becoming increased "sensitivity" to any comments of caution or question by some investors.
We all have a brain and we all have an ability to filter what we do and do not agree with on this forum. I have a "hear we go again" filter box which is getting quite full.
I for one like to hear all opinions and to have the opportunity to hear all of them regardless of whether I do or do not agree with them. There are not actually many naysayers at all on this thread. The fact that some are sensitive to the few of them and asking them to leave the thread highlights their sensitivity.
Blobbles Craic and anyone else has every right to offer his/her opinion of caution as anyone else is to say the price will hit $2 after the next announcement.
It is quite possible that PEB will carry on going up with more announcements round the corner. But as the market cap keeps on getting bigger Mr Market can at some stage also be expected to get less excited with each next announcement and start questioning when are the future sales that have been priced in going to eventuate.
PEB has made announcements in the past, here are a couple of examples:
Pacific Edge to ramp up European sales
Posted on May 24th, 2011
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news-an...uropean-sales/
We are still waiting on European sales 2 and a half years later, now they are expected to maybe begin 2014?
and
Pacific Edge sign agreement with Healthscope
NZPA | Monday March 28, 2011
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU110...diagnostic.htm
It's been over 2 and a half years and sales in Australia are also tepid at best.
Even in PEB's beloved home country NZ sales are only slowly rising.
So I do not think it unreasonable at all if someone wishes to make a cautionary remark about wanting to see more sales before the price races away to far even if it doesn't suit everyone to hear it.
Citizen arrest thank you for the feedback from your brother in law it is interesting to hear feedback from the coalface, and to the others for clarifying sensitivity and specificity, so CE can reask.
Cheers
At the end of the day I agree with craic. I am a holder of PEB share because I think they are on to a good thing. That their decisions increase their prospects of increasing company value. Because this good thing potentially will lead to their profitability and ultimately to their ability to be able to pay dividends whilst maintaining capital. Growth stocks must be able to achieve profitability at some point in the future. PEB has reduced its risk with each announcement, yet for me still is a speculative stock, just not as speculative as several months ago.
RYM is perhaps like PEB although several years on. It has yet to mature into a solely dividend investment.
Good points Okay, will appreciate response from others on the score of Euro/ nz/ aus sales.
I see the NZ & AU Urologists are having a get together at Waitangi later this week. PEB is a sponsor, has a stand, and gets to promote CXbladder on Thursday during a 15 minute slot. Damn I'd love access to that..
I do find it a little weird that this test isn't standard procedure here by now... What am I missing?
PEB travelling the world doing deals, Like the cat in Schrodingers Box we don’t know whether they will sell anything or not. PEB is both a success and failure at the same time. Its only when we see actual sales (ie the equivalent of looking in Schrondinger’s Box) that the superposition ceases to be and PEB is either a great success or an abject failure. The paradox is that observation (=measurement) affects the outcome, so the outcome doesn't exist until the measurement is made.
I was very bullish, but now I am not anti, I am being realistic. I am just illustrating the risks before we have sales. Nobody else seems to want to talk about it though, which I find disturbing.
Why do we have to be labelled as anti when we are simply stating facts? The facts are sales are low. We have no evidence to say sales are high.
I would suggest that people are getting a little carried away with potentials. This company has it in spades, but that does not mean it will be successful. I feel that the entire NZ stock market is getting fully if not over priced and a sentiment is beginning where peoples sensible PE ratios are getting out of whack with proper decision making, they are starting to pump things too high, we are getting away from fundamental valuations too much and talking about future potentials as if they are sureties. And now it feels like this is spilling over into euphoria for a product that has potential but no sales. I am trying to be the voice of reason here based on evidence, not potentials.
And I have sent GR8DAY a listing of all my trades (screenshots taken from Direct Broking), which illustrates all my trades and shows that I am still a holder of quite a few PEB shares. Again, this is evidence of my position, so claiming I "sold out and are waiting for a higher price" is inaccurate. Could it just be that I am aware of the risks that others are not wanting to talk about because they have sunk so much of their hopes and money into PEB? I suspect the latter is the case.
Blobbles, excellent points...
You have no evidence to say they are low either.
If you want credibility on this thread I suggest you sell all your shares in PEB right now.
We all know there are risks as with every other share ever issued and dont really need to be reminded every second posting that there are dangers involved.
Do you really think you are the only poster to have thought of this?
I believe you are mistaken
Cheers
Miner
Well? You wanted to talk about it!:)
As a relative newbie to share trading (well, investing rather than trading) I appreciate the posts from blobbles that point out the 'obvious' risks. As long as they are facts or genuine opinions (rather than just trash talking a share) then it's good to have both pros and cons, no matter how obvious it may seem to the more experienced here. IMHO it seems blobbles posts were balanced and fair and I'd hate to see those types of posts suppressed.
I have said 4 comments in the last 10 pages that have been illustrating the risks of PEB. That is not "every second posting", it is every 25 postings.
If everyone else has thought of these risks, why do all I ever read from a lot of people is potential, potential, potential with no indication of the risks? That, I would suggest, is upward ramping. And with people clearly sinking a LOT of money into it, I feel that is quite likely.
I now notice that GR8DAY has modified his original post where he claimed that I was down ramping because I sold out and wanted to buy in at a lower level. I OWN this share. I don't want to see it die, but I don't want inexperienced investors to be throwing the kitchen sink at something that isn't a done deal.
If I keep having my integrity and intentions of posting reality and evidence pulled into question, I will leave sharetrader because its simply pointless having arguments that play the man and not the ball. Open and honest discussion is how we all win, once I see that disappear and replaced with hyperbolic ramping up or down, with people attacking others for having an opinion that might vary from their own or the majority of posters, it will probably encourage a lot of us to leave.
A good place to go Cricketfan if you are looking for starter information on the risks is the FY13 annual report, PEB have acknowledged quite a lot actually in their own risk assessment.
As Minerbarejet suggests, every stock has its risks. With biotech stocks by far the greatest risks are in not passing clinical trials and not gaining the regulatory approvals which permit them to operate commercially, many biotech companies fail to do so and go nowhere at that point along with investors cash.
PEB have successfully now put these big risks and a lot more to bed in the past year, the forward risks are real but are more generic and in line with most businesses just starting to enter a new market.
Given that I am prone to slight exaggeration at times regarding bombardment levels, I apologise.
Potential is what this is all about, thats why you hear that
And if someone is upwardly ramping because they have their shirt on it and want to sell at a higher level- good luck.
If somebody is downwardly ramping because they know they are onto a good thing and want more - good luck.
And by the way we never actually own anything- we are merely temporary custodians.
You say you own this share - fine. Might I suggest you dont believe in it.
My father had bladder cancer and after the original successful treatment he has had a series of tests to check whether there has been a re occurrence. So far so good.
I can see that a specific test for bladder cancer is the very thing that is needed in these circumstances.
But...
If 1,000,000 people turn up at the doctors with blood in their wee-wees and only about 7% (68,800) will have bladder cancer then a specific test for it may possibly not be the way to go.
So you would know that the 70,000 probably have bladder cancer but you still need to find out whether the 930,000 have, or do not have, something else (there seems to be a reasonable number of other options).
So what tests do you have to administer to detect/eliminate them and do they also tell you whether bladder cancer is present?
I am wondering whether the market for this test is as big as I thought it was.
Is it going to be used as an 'occasional' confirmatory test rather than a 'generic' test.
What at the end of the day is the most cost-effective way (for insurance companies, health boards and the like it all comes down to value for money) of diagnosing the 1,000,000?
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
This is what I was getting at in a post a while back. I am concerned that if a doctor is going to give cystoscopy anyway, checking for the other causes of hematuria, will they still want to recommend CxBladder as an extra precaution? They definitely could do, as CxBladder has picked up cancers cystoscopy has not, but it's no sure thing. They may do both just to be sure or give the patient the option to do both tests also. I imagine most patients would want to be sure though so would go for both. Throw in the profit motives of the insurers and it murkies the water again (yes! Used twice now :) ) though. Regardless, it's not plainly clear how it will pan out...
Hey Cricketfan
The Black Caps smashed 300 plus against the Bangas last night ....pretty good eh
Spouse you looking forward to the Ashes coming up as well
Does anyone on this thread care to disclose whether they are (relative to PEB's terms of reference): Scientists, Professors, Physicians, Lecturers, Urologists etc??
I am staggered at (and respect) the level of research some posters have gone to in order to justify their buy, sell or hold positions. Just because we may "temporarily" own these shares (I agree with Miner that we are merely custodians), doesn't mean that we have to become as knowledgeable in the technical side of the business as the experts are that are already involved in the day to day side of this business. I believe a basic understanding is sufficient. We should just be trusting that the experts that have brought PEB this far know what they are doing. That is why they are there and it is their brilliance in their work that has got things to this point. I don't believe that the likes of Hancock's should have to keep researching to the technical level that he has (on a number of occasions - god bless his soul) in order to justify to others that PEB's wares are good enough.
For me, I just need to understand the basics of what they do and that they have a viable product and trust they are doing all the necessary steps to bring it to market. I do not need to understand what those big medical words mean (I can hardly spell them!) - that is why the PEB experts are there. As an investor I am more interested in the business and financial side of things, that the numbers stack up and that the positive announcements keep coming. PEB's publishings to date (incl the 2013 annual report) ticks those boxes for me.
I hope things keep progressing this week...and next ...and next...
..........yea/na but very well summarized Dentie. Agree to leaving the technical stuff to the experts (which we are NOT)......but all interesting stuff. On the other hand the business model of PEB looks close to perfect to me. A HUGE need established, a HUGE market established, HUGE medical insurance companys ready to support it and I believe HUGE profits available due to HUGE margins..........all equates to a HUGE future for PEB.....IMHO.
Thanks for your post Hancocks.
Both Buffett and Lynch tell us to invest in what we understand. Putting time into getting a grip of as much of the medical side as possible can only help us make more informed decisions.
That first link you provide from the Daily Mail, to me, adds to the argument that GPs seem to be circumventing bladder cancer checks, maybe partly because they don't want to put their patients through the ordeal of a cystoscopy unnecessarily.
The two quotes at the end from Dr Lyratzopolous are great -
1. "When a woman has blood in the urine without other symptoms straight away this should prompt further investigation, the same way it would a man. This would cut out up to a quarter of the delays straight away."
2. "Our focus should be to develop a test that can be used in GP surgeries."
Well - cxBladder has effectively solved this problem.
[QUOTE=winner69;438328]Nobody answered my query about Darling's record of commercialising science ...like making real money over time.
He driving this at PEB .......has he any successes in this area on his CV
Still interested to know[/QUOTE
Recalled the Fletcher tree connection from some interview I had heard and a google turned up
Graduating from Massey and Canterbury Universities in NZ, David Darling has gained considerable experience and success in the development of start-up companies/technologies through to commercialisation. Involved in the entrepreneurial development of biomedical devices/technology, nutraceuticals, herbal medicines, forestry and horticulture. David’s roles include the development and management of an integrated biotechnology and manufacturing operation, and intellectual property platforms/large patent portfolios. As a scientist and science manager, David also led the development and management of Fletcher Challenge Ltd’s tree breeding and biotechnology business, and was actively involved in the development and start-up of ArborGen, a USA-based biotechnology joint venture business between Rubicon and two North American forestry giants, International Paper and MeadWestVaco.
Joining Pacific Edge in 2003 David has led the company’s product development from R & D to commercialisation of its products. The novel molecular diagnostics provide a marked change in the ability to detect and manage cancer. Pacific Edge has launched Cxbladder® in New Zealand, Australia, Spain and expects to launch a dedicated service in the US in 2013.
David currently acts on the Board of Directors of Primepine, Ecotek, Ginzeng, Axel, Prognostic Systems, Pacific Edge Pty Ltd, Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA Ltd. He previously sat on the Board of Directors of GEENZ, Tasman Biotechnology, Trees and Technology, CAMCORE (USA) among others. David is a member of the Advisory Board for the Ministry of Science and Innovation (MSI) and a Director of Football South in Dunedin, NZ.
cut and paste from http://www.morgo.co.nz/
Healthscope have a summary brochure marketing cxbladder effectiveness over the competition, nice flyer;
http://www.healthscopepathology.com....dder/brochure/
Continuing volatility already ... 8 to 9c split ... all on good early volume
These shares are still "Cum Rights" so the rights are still attached to them for today's trading.
Get amongst it!
Balance, is it still the same seller?
You are right, the graph was the clincher. I would suggest that the non invasive part is something that should be pushed as well. Surely the Star Trek style of diagnosing things by waving a wand at you or taking a sample is better than the alternative.
My one big fear of having some major illness is that a bunch of doctors will try to push large barbed probes into various orifices in my body. Having had a test done in my early years for something that I should have known better to avoid I can attest to the extreme discomfort of having something stuck in the end of my p...... The next couple of visits to the bathroom were like pissing glass shards.
Strangely enough the worst one in my imagination would be having the tube down the throat.
I know the focus is quite heavily on the financial benefit of having this type of test available and that is huge but you are right there are other aspects. The invasive tests are quite often painful or at best uncomfortable and quite degrading. I think there is a huge plus here in being able to diagnose things with a bit of dignity. Well, about as dignified as you can be pissing in a bottle.
[QUOTE=Dentie;438341]Yes I had seen that CV as well
The question is still has he commercialised science into real returns ...like hundreds of millions of dollars as opposed to just bringing them market?
Hechk my head will be chopped off now and I wil be asked to leave this thread and go and join craic
Hi Dentie VERY impressed with your holding you know when your on to a good thing.
Regarding dividends I recall DD when interviewed by a newspaper reporter this goes back a bit, when asked if the company would be paying dividends in 2014 he said no and the same breath walking away said 2015.
Thanks Geo - certainly didn't disclose this to go "nah, nah, na... na...na" or whatever....and certainly not looking for accolades either!
Would have been happier not disclosing but just getting frustrated at Craic's comments - he didn't seem to be picking up on what I was trying to convey.
Am well aware of the risks with PEB - and if it all goes down the toilet then I'll simply go back washing dishes for the local cook house or whatever. Doesn't bother me to be honest.
If investors/traders in PEB can't afford to lose their dosh - then can I suggest they shouldn't be buying these shares.
I am young, I have no dependents, it is in the 'high-risk' portion of my portfolio. While some other parts of my portfolio may seem boring in comparison, and have less possibility for growth, they also wont burn in flames in a heartbeat as well.
The younger less experienced ones (myself in this category) need to understand where this investment sits, and what their intentions are with it.
DISC: HOLD
There is not a lot of demand for the head share today, which I find surprising given that they come with the right to purchase 2 for every 15 at the bargain-basement price of 55c.
As Rights start trading later this week, they will trade at a range of prices that will influence the head share price, moving it in tandem. There could well be better buying opportunities via the rights (e.g. purchasing at somewhere between 60 and 70c the right to purchase head shares at 55c).
BC
Groundhog day Bob, seller fills the line all morning with 25k parcels, which are eagerly bought by the accumulator, then after lunch, seller ups the ante to 50k, 100k parcels and then gives the bids all afternoon.
should close below 124 today, if the pattern is to remain the same.
JMT's
dont forget tomorrow is ex rights, so heads will drop by ~11 cents
Well i topped up with a few, couldnt resist, made my average price buy in look a bit worse lol but that will go back when i add the 55c shares
In terms of the rights, will we be posted out a letter about it etc?
Let me get this straight, as a holder I can trade my rights from tomorrow (at a premium) but may also be able to buy (at a discount) rights to then fulfil new shares. Ie I could potentially buy a right (ie a share @55c) for 70c meaning that provided the SP stays above $1 after I am making an immediate 30c gain on every new share I bought via rights. I am getting this right?
Seen today's Herald article on UK research into melanoma?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/...ectid=11151311
Is this competition for the Pacific Edge test (currently in pre-clinical trials) or something different?