Originally Posted by
Lewylewylewy
UK:
I thought the trade agreements were a case of trying to set up agreements with countries so they don't lose out when they leave the EU, which has it's own trade agreements they won't have access to anymore. Ways in which I see the UK losing on Brexit is loss of trade agreements (restriction on purchasing = less resources for businesses relying on external sources and disruption. Restrictions on exporting = business closures). This means less jobs in the UK (which might be ok if the immigrants are forced to leave, which they won't) and inflation and unavailability of some goods. Could be ugly if trade agreement negotiations don't go well.
US:
So far, to my knowledge, the main thing Trump's been doing is using his position to negotiate building permits with foreign powers that previously denied him. I'd say it's pretty difficult to align your interests with his financially.
He does however, seem to have a bee in his bonnet about several political & economic issues that I think he's driving from a personal (egocentric) perspective - what he thinks America needs to do to improve. Mainly these are poorly planned and tactlessly executed ideas that he hasn't researched or fully thought out. How much conviction / ability he will have executing these is another matter. If you can work that out, you can predict what will happen and make your money buying on the dips.
I think that NZ is looking at a recession in the next few years, or if there's no recession we will trundle along nicely. I have no idea which will occur, but I do believe that the biggest thing keeping us going is the influx of immigrants and house price inflation. Each bringing more money to families by inflation and more money in the country. Not a great way to run an economy, but a hard one to get out of (not blaming anyone for this situation, politically - just stating the way I see things).