Just Purfic
NPAT upgrade/narrowing towards the upper end would be nice
Dreams are free
Big day today, with the AGM
First part will be rerun of road show. A bit boring but believers salivating on every word as the greatness of this company is told. Doubt Chairman will be laughed at like Trump got but more like a Jacinda uphoria mood
Then the exciting bit. The previous guidance NPBT $34m to $36m (up 13% on mid) will become NPBT $36m to $38m
Then the drama as enraged shareholders get stuck into the troughers, herdlickers and greedy self indulgent directors about the pay rise. That motion will pass with a huge meeting
Punters will leave on high as the share price soars over 3 bucks
Put the WINX.AU cash on TRA yesterday for a quick return ....cool eh
LOL you've got the script all worked out...no need for me to go then..oh wait I have stayed up all night working on metamorphizing from a Beagle into a WereWolf so there has to be some purpose to that :D
It says only 18 besides me waiting for the audio to start, everyone else out to quickly buy a car:p
Slide 5 pie graph a bit sloppy
winner - no NPAT upgrade, TRA just priced just a little bit cheap instead of pretty cheap
save the upgrade for just before full year results and/or well after my bond conversion
Surprised how few are interested in watching....
Someone just beat me to my cheap shares :(
Suppose they had to say .... • Share price undervalued on core metrics
But with Analyst A and Analyst B having a target of $3.30 implies a price today of $2.90 to $3.00
So either Analyst A or Analyst B are dimwits or Turners management are a bit delusional
Should have included Analyst C(outa) to support their claim share price under valued
I am here now so if the question isn’t asked I can ask on your behalf.... I have to leave a little early though so hoping questions come up soon
Not a very diverse looking top table.
Suppose cars is a boys game anyway
c’mon Todd ...a bit more enthusiasm please
I think that one was answered at the road show about some instos will only look at companies which are asx listed as well. Someone can correct me if I am wrong...
Lot of Grey / Bald heads in the audience !
So PB very happy with Oz.....TH says they are struggling.
Listing on the ASX for paid for holidays?
So far 28m in favour of director fee increase, 1.6 against
No such thing as a silly question but excellent point made about shabby single stapled Annual Report. I think we can expect something of a bit better standard next time around.
Nothing in that meeting or presentation to portray a picture of exceptional growth ahead. Will be slow, steady progress I suspect if we're lucky. Growing earnings -> leading to growing dividends -> leading to increasing Share Price over time. Mostly on used cars. Hmmmmm...well, as long as they can grow the dividend, SP shouldn't drop much further and I'll stay the course.
A little disappointed.
Nice work re the directors fees Beagle.
Anyway...that's my impression.
interesting that a “Challenging Q1” (performance wise) was followed by The Roadshow in July/August
And you guys reported only positive things from those meetings — like things were booming - hmm
An excellent meeting well conducted by Paul Brynes.
Strategy in place for a sound growing business, which is at present rewarding shareholders with growing dividends.Strategy is well thought out.Sales,Insurance,Finance,Service. [property]
Share price being discussed was pleasing,including the point that most brokers mistakenly categorise TRA as a retail stock..A lot of interesting questions,and McGinty and Beagle made very interesting, well researched points.
Very open about the MTF and insurance issues.What a capable board.Property developments in Auckland and ChCh still on their agenda.I look forward to hearing more about them.
YouTube served us well.
ps Wellingtonions.Is Turners new site open?
Watching the bits I managed to see. I felt it was OK, not hyped nor depressed. Didnt seem a lot of energy in the presentations - but probably appropriate. Answers were well constructed. Overall impression was business as usual, slow but steady - with no surprises in the wings, nor any earth shattering opportunities. I'm left anticipating slight share price improvement over time but not to $3.60 or $3.90 previous highs. Not all shares can be manic ATM's so a bit of steadyness probably not a bad thing for my portfolio - though I do want to se SP hit $3.10 which would at least put me back to break even rather than the current negative position.
Well done to the video team - worked well and money well spent. Though couldn't quite see the tasty morsels on the treats table.
.
Hold for dividend income and some growth is my sense after attending.
I am forecasting just 4.5% eps growth this year based on the mid point of the FY19 forecast. The main villain is the weighted average number of shares on issue this year will be considerably higher due to primarily the large capital raise part way through last year and secondly the bond conversion. This sort of EPS growth does not fuel SP growth as we have seen with HBL lately.
I chatted with a couple of the directors after the meeting, (after giving them a good rev up about their directors fees increase, so it was a little awkward), but the sense I get is that steady progress is being made. I suggested they need to sell themselves better to shareholders and talk up the change from wholesale distribution to more retail and really send the message that this really grows their ability to cross sell finance, warranty and insurance.
The key question in my mind, which is an open one, can they grow eps at high single digit level's in FY20 without share issuance ? I think a lot depends upon the economic cycle and how things play themselves out so that question probably remains open for a while. EPS by my reckoning is 30.6 cps in FY19. Choose your PE. Best guess at this point is momentum will build, (Rome definitely wasn't built in a day) and we could get high single digit EPS growth next year.
Beagle ......proud of you. Pity you and others didn’t really get good answers
Have watched a replay .......you can see why the share price is where it is (even though fairly valued and not cheap)
Neighbour’s impression was the company just seems to lurch from one problem to the next and have spent a lot of time solving them and reckon that next year they will telling shareholders about another series of problems. As a newish shareholder he didn’t seem too impressed.
Trust you told the neighbour that is what business is all about.The successful business identifies problems and fixes them,all the time delivering on their [growth] strategy.
Get him to read The Mainfreight History.Over coming "real" problems,and still continuing to do so.
Very kind of you to dump on all us older folk when you are the biggest grizzler ive come across.How ageist can one be.
Yeah he looked quite un-flustered and stated his case. I think he got a bit of applause for that stance too. Don't get me wrong, I am all for females at board level, my partner happens to be one. But they must be there on merit not as a token bimbo (as my partner would say)
I thought he looked uncomfortable on a number of occasions and was quite defensive. He didnt inspire confidence in me to be honest and I wouldnt buy back in after watching it but most of you seem happy with the presentation and are happy holders and have way more knowledge and experience than me :)
I agree that Paul Brynes looked uncomfortable and defensive and didn't speak especially well. Look I have to say this. In my view its unacceptable that the Chairman Grant Baker didn't attend. Unless a close relative is dying or just died or one is extremely sick in my view there really isn't another valid excuse for a Chairman not to show his face at the annual meeting.
If I didn't know better, (and I certainly don't) I'd think seeing as he knew the votes on hand prior to the meeting was already going to carry the directors fees increase he was too embarrassed to show his face at the annual meeting. Going off comments on here he would have known the certain shareholders, myself included, were gunning for him over the exorbitant directors fee and especially chairman's fee increase so why cop the flak right ?
Might as well take that extra $40K which is rather conveniently backdated to 1 April 2018, grab a couple of first class seats on Emirates to Zurich and go skiing in Switzerland right ? How dare commoners question my right to very fulsome remuneration right ? I'm a big shareholder in this company didn't you know and it doesn't matter if we simply staple annual reports together with one staple, shareholders don't deserve a properly bound report because we're trying to save money...except of course when it comes to Directors Fees !
I think its very rude and disrespectful to shareholders for him not to show up. Definite black mark against the company for that....and the other directors wonder why the SP is under pressure...Hmmm... top pay and they couldn't organize a shareholder placement plan for small shareholders in a fair and reasonable manner last year...Hmmm.
Todd Hunter impressed...if it wasn't for him I'd probably be out. Anyway...that's probably enough barking for one day.
Agree The Chairman should have been there,however I accept The Board altered the meeting date.
In fact I think Paul Byrnes handling of the meeting was one of the best I have seen/or been to.
He handled McGinty's well research questions extremely well.All other questions except your staple question were answered head on,and fully.
Yes Todd Hunter impresses,but so does CFO Aaron Saunders, and the whole board.
If you missed the reasons why the sp was under pressure, go to YouTube Turners Automotive Group agm 2018 and listen to what Paul Byrne said.
Yeah I chatted with a couple of the other board members and would have to conceed they seemed like good guys. Just grumpy about not being able to take direct aim at Grant Baker as I was looking forward to that. Maybe we get a properly bound annual report next year :) Possibly pretty fair buying at around the current level but my price target one year hence is somewhat lower than the average brokers target and a lot lower than the Couta1 theorem. I'm okay with my bonds converting to shares now...so attendance today was worth it as far as I am concerned.
The current net dividend yield is 5.40 %.It is paid quarterly.
The current PE is 9.81.
Clever business model with strong organic growth,very strong brand,top CEO and CFO,good board,strong balance sheet.
Couta1 is right,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,just a matter of when?...…………...lol.
ps.Most probably be more earnings accretive for Heartland to buy than UDC...………….lol.
Disappointed there was no online voting option. Easy way to suppress votes from small shareholders. Glad you guys asked the questions that needed asking.
I have been overseas so was unable to vote against the increase in the Directors fees. Hope Grant filled out his form before he left.
I voted online Jaa.
Certainly , without a valid reason extremely disappointing re grant baker. Is he arrogant and only int in adding value for one as ive read an opinion somewhere before ?
I don't know.I remember going to a neice's wedding years ago,in Sydney.Booked our tickets for us going from ChCh return ,and neice's mother coming from Gold Coast.Neice had to change the date, because of venue double booking.Yes changed date was the day we were meant to fly home.Changing flights AIR NZ screwed me blind.Venue said tough.Maybe Grant wanted a laugh at Donald at the UN.?.Maybe McGinty will find the answer at next year's agm.
Go to YouTube;Turners Automotive Group agm 2018 and you can hear the whole meeting.
at 8.46 into to it, Paul Byrne talks about the share price.
Many ways to increase ones portfolio couta. if your way works(holding fewer larger baskets) for you thats great. But for many holding a decent number of stocks in different sectors is a lower risk way of investing.
Managing ones risk and limiting losses is the most important investment rule imo.
Your way you can make higher gains but bigger losses as well and it can happen anytime. Often we dont really know what our risk level is until our first decent disaster in my experience.
Having owned my own businesses I often had all my eggs in one basket.The basket being a toy shop,then a bookshop,then a school library supplier, the basket was not very strong.
Now I can invest with directors/managers who are a lot more capable in business than I ever was.
Interesting reading the comments on the AGM (thanks for sharing)..... while I'm never averse to being 'overweight' in some shares, and respect Percy's views, I remain doubtful that TNR's model is capable of exceeding NZX top 50 average growth and suspect that while this is a relatively 'safe' investment for some, it is just not for me. GLH.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...475/287523.pdf
I'd have liked to have seen the numbers. Especially on the remuneration for directors.
For posterity below is what the Deputy Chairman said about why is the share price so low.
He only said what punters wanted to hear and maybe he is grumpy as some others. Funny thing though a lot of the things he pointed out says ‘fair value’ today is only $2.90/$3.00 anyway
They don’t seem to get that analysts target prices if around $3.30 means today’s price should be about $2.90/$3.00 — (about the same price he bought at ...hmm). It should be noted that the mentioned analysts are on the same page as the company as they cone up with the same profit figure - sort of says they understand the business model / strategy etc. so where’s the problem Paul
Paul did say the market is what it is ...and done it’s sums and think it’s only worth $3.00 now and if things go OK maybe $3.30 in a years time. What’s the problem
Anyway here’s the words Paul used -
The only area of performance that has disappointed is our languishing share price. As it must be a concern for all shareholders we should take some time to discuss possible reasons and market feedback.
As most will know both First NZ Capital and Craigs Investment Partners commenced analyst coverage of Turners in 2016 with regular in-depth analysis of our full year and interim results, providing guidance for their respective clients. As part of these regular market research reports, analysts include their forecast of future profits for 3 years out and a share price target for the next 12 months based on their analysis.
The most recent research reports following the release of our profit result to 31 March 2018, had 12 month target share prices of $3.29 and $3.35, so an average of $3.32. Forecast profit for this current year FY19 from the 2 reports were similarly close to each other with an average profit before tax of $34.5 million, just under the mid-point of our current guidance of between $34 million and $36 million. We would also expect actual earnings per share for FY19 to come close to assumptions included in these reports.
So why is our share price currently around $2.85, well below the price suggested by conventional analysis in these reports? And trading at a level at which the Board sees value – you will have seen directors and senior executives including Grant, Todd and myself recently buying at around $3.00 per share.
Of course there will be a number of factors influencing a share price in any dynamic stock exchange market, and no doubt some of you will have other ideas that we would be happy to hear about. But feedback from shareholders and market commentators suggest 3 possible issues at play;
1. Strategy in a more complex Turners business
2. Concern about the tightening credit cycle
3. Negative sentiment from last year’s capital raise
^^^^This. Something is not right here. Free warning sign for those that choose to take notice of it. Reasons could be many and varied but unless someone close is in dire straights no other reason is valid in my view and I simply don't "buy" the change of date excuse given. It was very weak and implausible. Interestingly the deputy chair chose not to give a specific reason other than Mr Baker had a long standing commitment, (what, for a holiday ?), and based on body language looked very uncomfortable about the whole situation. That body language may or may not show up on youtube but was obvious to those who were there. He still gets his pay increase despite not being there. If one is the Chairman of the board and shareholders have just one chance per annum to eyeball said person and ask them questions when they want a large pay increase THE VERY LEAST said chairman should do is to turn up to the annual meeting. It is absolutely DISGRACEFUL that he didn't attend and reflects very poorly on the rest of the board and the company.
Next year if I am still a shareholder I will get a good sarcastic dig in...something like. Starting off a question with... Nice of you to choose to join us this year Mr Baker...
One positive...at least this board has the common sense not to be obsessed with diversity like some are...
5.13% against the directors fees, so you did have some influence here on the forum. Pity the insto's are so apathetic.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...506/287592.pdf
AGM.held 2015..16th September.
……………….2016..14th September
……………...2017..20th September.
2018 it was held a week later on 26th September.
Now a friend of mine is going fishing in Canada next year.Booking made last year.Deposit not refundable.
So it is easy to see Grant had made a commitment,based on the usual week TRA held their agm.
So no hidden agenda,or any other conspiracy theories needed.
I would like to know who wrote The Chairman's speech Grant or Paul.?
ps.Anyone know how much it would cost to charter Graeme Hart's super yacht for a week's, or a fortnight's Mediterranean Cruise.?
pps.Wonder whether Graeme would refund your deposit if you could not make it.?...………..lol.
Trend suggest an AGM in the week 17 - 21 was on the cards.
So for a start TRA delayed AGM by a week.
Given the 6 day variability (14 - 20th) you'd think you wouldn't go booking a non refundable trip 6 days either side of usual parameters.
And if he had booked a non-refundable holiday a year ago, thats plenty of time to organise an AGM around it.
I dont think there is any conspiracy theory - just poor form.
Yes mate, that's what I was getting at. Him not being there had the effect of muzzling me a bit. Could have worked myself up a bit more about the whole thing if I could see the target...possibly a good thing I didn't...wouldn't have made any difference anyway...
I don't think the shares issued in exchange for bonds are going to be cheap at all. Not sure where the 5% discount to 90 day VWAP price will be but it will be a little lower than when I ran some analysis on it earlier this month and arrived at $2.94. My best guess is ~ $2.91.
Interesting that such a very high percentage of people investing in their new 3 year bond offer are new investors to Turners, announcement this morning. This comes on the back of only 50% of bondholders electing to convert to shares compared to 75% the previous time. This suggests that quite a significant proportion of bondholders asked for their money back in cash. (Keep in mind existing bondholders had preferential rights to new bonds) A fairly reasonable number of bondholders, (much higher than last time) appear to have decided the grass is greener in some other investment opportunity. Frustrated with returns anyone ?
Turners really a yield story with only quite moderate eps growth and long term headwinds as we move very slowly towards self driving ride share vehicles. Each to their own but this is not going to be a high conviction holding for me or a large one. Leave Percy to enjoy the sunshine up at the big end of the tent :)
I'm also enjoying that sunshine at the big end of the tent Beagle, having a few relaxing ciders waiting for the next juicy divvy, makes up a healthy but not greedy 9% of my portfolio.
Well yesterday's barking has left me a little "horse" and tired. It takes a lot of energy to try and morph into a wolf you know :)
It is what it is..a reasonable hold with some modest eps growth in the foreseeable future trading of a cheap PE of less than 10 and a gross yield of ~8% but long term headwinds. I think there are better and a lot worse opportunities out there. I doubt anyone is going to get really rich out of this one and note Colonial Motors considerably better long term track record of creating shareholder wealth, also trading on very undemanding metrics.
Someone commented to me after the meeting that used cars is a tough game. I think that SUM's it up pretty well.
Well done Beagle for speaking up, I'm sure if Mr Baker had have been there you would have left a few teeth marks.
I was one of the bond holders that took the cash rather than shares or new bonds.
Two reasons. Not keen on the board and the shares are too 'consumer discretionary' for me at this stage of the market.
The winds of change are about to blow through the NZ car market. The storm driving these winds are off below the horizon but we will feel their force.
Presidents Trump/Xi now stand on the edge of the wharf demanding a steep tariff payment to land cars. Part of their plans to make America/China great again.
Car companies are now urgently trying to steer their way through this "greatness" while avoiding loosing their shirts.
Can you think of a country whose leader is preoccupied showing off the baby, trying to anticipate Winston Firsts next zig or zag and tutoring her cabinet ministers how to behave so doesn't have time to slap car imports with tariffs.
I'm sure the the same thoughts are rattling around inside the heads of car manufacturers executives. They will be making frantic calls to their assembly plants to put the steering wheel on the other side and ship em to NZ.
This wall of cars will transform the second hand car market from a cascading market to a clearance market. Is now the right time to be setting up used car sales yards?
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
PS. How likely is it that NZ is so glutted with used cars we will have to ship them offshore to other right hand drive counties such as Bangladesh?
Given the number of drivers that get their licence out of a wheatbix packet I am pretty sure we can rightoff the wall of cars required to keep global car manufacturing afloat.