Might breach $3 the way its shaping
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Might breach $3 the way its shaping
well shes quite high above the 50 and 200 MA's I'm not surprised it's pulled back a bit. I haven't checked it in a while but if I'm correct it also breached the bollingers and is pulling back through the top band. Just some technical pressure I reckon. I don't think the overall uptrend has been sabotaged. I've been wrong before! Don't trust me :) just my opinion
Its fair to say there's some nervousness caused by Mr Luxon's comments yesterday and with them being widely reported people took them at face value. It was implied that AIR face an enormous challenge filling their extra 12 % capacity and that substantial price drops were needed to achieve that. Keep in mind the audience those comments were aimed at.
The facts, (as best we know them) is that as per the Nov Op stat's YTD capacity grew at 12% but revenue passage kilometres grew at 12.2% so AIR have been doing a very good job filling the extra seats with existing sales and marketing strategies and average load factors have been very robust at an average of 84% well above QAN 81%. Yields to date have also been good in the context of much lower oil prices.
Some nervous holders decided to take profits, run for the door and ask questions later. I wasn't one of them.
Its like a bit of a deja vu--those Herald articles about price cutting and competition.
It came right last time so probably no reason to get to upset as long as results are good when they come out. (the next set of results after these will be interesting) We will have a better idea then of how the cost cutting is affecting things--same story though--fill the planes and you are sweet.
It's easy to scare the horses in today's market and the nervous Nellies ran from the stable today without really understanding the story.
I guess they've simply created a buying opportunity for the more astute investor and we'll see them moving in on Thursday.
Plenty of exciting stuff to come yet from AIR and absolutely no need to panic. The December stats and the half year result will both make fascinating reading.
Additional flights .... can only be good
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11580666
Totally agree pierre..it was a good buying opportunity for anyone that wasn't already on board or who wanted to increase their allocation.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11580616 Had the desired effect including the desired publicity and a smart move in a political sense.
I'm Not sure an extra 15% capacity expansion to Queenstown will be anywhere nearly enough but I am sure they can expand much more at a later date now that night flights are approved, (subject to sufficient aircraft capacity).
Big buys at the end of trading today. May be up again tomorrow a bit.
AIR Shareprice history is volatile ... steep rises and steep falls... That is the nature of the beast..and that's why I'm super alert with this one...todays drop 15.5c -4.8% to close at $3.07 has caused no major technical damage but it's a worry as are all cyclicals in their mature bull cycle phase...Yes a shareprice worry even with a good result due + a possible big special Div..
Disc: holding
They reality is people simply may have a different mind set, simply profit taking rather than nervous may be the answer. I don't believe anyone informed on the company would have taken a negative from the announcement.
I think the Auckland to Queenstown market at night is a great idea as it will allow a lot of workers in Auckland to make a weekend of it with a decent amount of time down in Queenstown. It also has limited competition, nice point of difference in this offering.
Some years back AIR increased capacity on the AKL- WLG sector with extra flights and as a result found they had grown the market share from their competitors. The increased frequency allowed passengers more options for their travel requirements. I think this Queenstown announcement will achieve the same, taking market share from Jetstar and the alike.
Remember long term resistance (the $3 barrier in his case) when breached generally becomes solid support.
Let's see how TA plays out. Was support last week so working so far