Thanks for posting the link kiora. All in all, one of the most exciting companies on the NZX.
Printable View
Football this morning not that exciting so updated my FPH DCF valuation .... hope answer isn't as sad as the faces of the guys in red shirts at the moment.
What you guys think of the sales trajectory in the chart below? I expect to hear wow you are bearish lol
Anyway that gives me a value of $17.05.
So at $17.05 I'd be expecting a 8% pa capital gain plus divies
If I really wanted a 10% pa capital return (and believed my assumptions) I'd only want to pay about $12
See what happens eh
Disc: I don't work for Forbar
You won't be getting them for $17.05 tomorrow. PS- Forbar might have a job for you cause you've valued them lower than them but then would you really want to be associated with a bunch numpties like that. I love how these analysts just keep lowering their tp according to the market movements, hey even a monkey is more than capable of following a squiggly line down.
This is interesting
https://www.alphaspread.com/security...nsic-valuation
The intrinsic value of one FPH stock lies somewhere between 12.47 AUD and 20.66 AUD. Compared to the current market price of 18.06 AUD, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Ltd is [/B]undervalued only under the bull case scenario.[/B]
Man where do you dredge up these randoms from? the best part from them is their disclaimer on the bottom where they say " The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way" kinda says it all really. But now the good news from these guys, OCA is worth $1.74 with an intrinsic value of between $1.28-$2.69. Lol
Its not too far from your original $ 18 ...so I think its quite reasonable expectation and assumptions ....
On Forbar analysis ....Their analysts didnt even bother to join Q&A session with top management after results presentation ...rest all were present and clarified some aspects ....Kiora posted the link to chat transcript ...read it and found it to be quite bullish over longer term period ...as management is confident on longer term trends but cannot guide on shorter term targets ...It says pretty confidently that sales can grow 12% YOY on a long term span of say 5-8 years ahead
Over $21 now ..... heading to $25 by end of June
FPH .... go you little beauty
never see $20 again
Can easily drop 50c on any given day and go sub $20 again but perhaps $19.48 could very well be the bottom now that the result has been digested. PS-I have a lot of spare hats at home here, even a couple of cowboy or should that be cowperson ones in our new Woke culture.
There are many positives for FPH.
For example donation to NZ of 50 ventilators worth $5M to help with the initial outbreak of Covid.
Supplying hospitals worldwide to treat those ill with Covid and presumably ramping up production to do so.
However a classic sales go up but profits go down situation the end result.
I certainly hope that FPH improves on last years results for all of the shareholders and stakeholders.
Whether FPH management is sound is for others to judge.
A couple of things to consider:
(1) It seems to me Resmed (RMD) Air Sense 10 is technically superior to FPH current offering and the Air Sense 11 better still.
The Resmed AirSense 11 is only available in the US to the present and not in Australia and NZ. The reason is Philips were forced by the US FDA to recall all their installed base of Respironics CPAP machines. There are estimated to be 5,5 million. Many US users will buy RMD as first choice and not wait for a recall to work through.
(2) At a time of maximum production because of Covid increased demand, FPH appear to have been unable to manage increases in profits. They also appear not to have managed FX successfully and maybe other risks.
Don't get me wrong I want FPH to succeed for all of us.
Good luck to all at FPH.
FPH will be in almost all Kiwi's Kiwisaver portfolios. As our largest capital value company.
FPH is Simplicity's largest individual Company holding at 2.36% of the Growth Fund. FPH share price is down -36% in my Watch List over 73 weeks.
Simplicity have 1.61% of the Growth fund in AIA - don't know how it will turn out with the current activity, but today in the same Watch list it is -2.1% in 73 weeks.
Simplicity also have 1.09% of the Growth fund in Contact at -23% in the 73 week Watch list.
Spark is another of Simplicity holdings at 1.46% of the Growth Fund. It is up 1.3% over 73 weeks.
Simplicity have 7.73% of the Growth fund invested in NZ Equity.
Simplicity chose the 5 largest NZ companies.
FPH is the biggest individual company NZD holding in the whole Simplicity Growth Fund portfolio. Surprising to many but bigger than any of the US Companies, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet.
That is why we all need FPH to succeed and for good management in the current challenging environment.
Good post. Just as an aside I can't help wondering with the tens of billions invested in Kiwisaver how many people have been asking to switch from growth funds to balanced, conservative and or cash funds and that surely must keep the pressure on stocks like FPH which are a real favorite with Kiwisaver funds targeting growth. Interesting times.
Golly gosh - my sales and profit forecasts for the next few years are higher than what marketscreener are showing.
I assume that makes me bullish lol
Marketscreener says f23 EPS at 50 cents --- PE of 40 is 20 bucks
Its the other way now ...opposite to when market and analysts justified $ 37 SP ...as we know $ 37 was over estimated ....similarly we will know the present day SP and estimates as over bearishness ...Pendulum has swung .
U maybe more right then Forbars on this ...at least likes of Pinnacle and Mitsubishi think so :D
Morningstar guy quote - “But Ponraj now thinks it has been oversold and trading at a discount for long-term investors – he values it at $24 per share which is more bullish than many other analysts covering the stock.”
Morningstar usually pretty good with their valuations
Well done Morningstar ….go go FPH
But Ponraj now thinks it has been oversold and trading at a discount for long-term investors – he values it at $24 per share which is more bullish than many other analysts covering the stock.
Prob paywalled
Tale of two high flying businesses
Company A had huge sales growth and sales peaked in June 2020. Sales decline appears to have bottomed out after 3 quarters but 30% less than their peak
Company B also had huge sales growth and sales peaked in September 2020. Sales are forecast to bottom out after 4 quarters (September 2022) and also about 30% less than their peak
Both companies mention margin pressures
Company A's share is down about 70% from its peak while Company B's share price is currently down 45% from its peak
Company B still has to report further decline in sales - maybe its share price might fall further .... maybe to 70% less than its peak
Maybe not because its margin problem doesn't seem to be as bad as Company A experienced
The old ATM vs FPH comparison again? lol
Well, yes ... but isn't your Company A a one trick pony which did neither understand nor manage the sales channel to supply their biggest customer with product? The result was sort of predictable.
How can you compare this bunch of inepts with the fine management team at FPH?
So over the last year or so a 'bunch of inepts' as well a 'fine management team' have been in charge of a 30% decline in sales .......... and seen their share prices tumble with zillions of share holder wealth gone
In spite of rout on Wall St Friday night could be an UP day for FPH today
Resmed went up in US .... didn't join in the rout
ASX closed today so no leads from them
Just the meek NZ investors left .... probably they'll buy.
ResMed make a $1.45 billion acquisition
Interesting how much SaaS stuff they do - Maybe Resmed valued as a SaaS company ..... like why they have a high PE
https://www.businessnewsaustralia.co...ebd3bf4ce1f3a6
Alokdhir has pointed out that there’s a good chance tomorrows Index rebalancing exercise will be very interesting ...may lead to some big movements in beaten down stocks
Hopefully so ….FPH back over $21
alokdhir - you still keeping on eye on the export data and running you FPH model?
May data didn't look that good ..... maybe FPH exports down on pcp
FPH share price back over 20 bucks ....that's a good sign
Yes ...May exports data was almost similar to April ...so nothing much to report ..seems doing $ 125 Mil per month ...
That will bring to analysts forecast of $ 1550 Mil and $ 310 Mil NPAT ...
Todays move maybe overall tide brining all up or being a healthcare proxy for impending recession switch or Bond yields coming off thus helping improve valuations
7Forbar still running their model
Market close report mentioned this -
With the healthcare exporter not issuing revenue guidance, Forsyth Barr has built a proxy model to try to estimate how revenue is tracking. “Trends are improving off February lows and it is early days in the financial year 2023, but the run-rate remains below current market expectations,” the analysts wrote.
Good long term investments these companies with succession planning well sorted
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cather_Simpson
https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...ph.nzx-394918/
So FPH share price recovering well - close week at $21.41
That's 13% above recent lows .... sounds better than saying only 43% below its high...... could say the down trend from those high has been broken and a new up trend is forming
Maybe its falling NZD and/or interest rates that's driving the rise but whatever the reasons the love is returning to FPH
If love is measured by its PE ratio that love has returned big time ....PE now 43 on FY23 forecast earnings
Go FPH - $25 beckons soon ..... esp if they come out with a trading up
FPH is one of the 3 stocks which have gone above 30 day and 60 day SMA ...others maybe I dont track ...but many are still struggling below even 30 SMA
Mr B's litmus test it passed ...but I am sure he and many more will still not be impressed as PE too high ...:p
After yo yo of 10 year yields ...I think they will settle soon when market gets a good idea how high rates need go in this cycle ...its still trying to figure that out just like all of us ...I still think it will take something special to go beyond the highs already recorded ie 4.284 NZ and 3.52 of US 10 years
More chance of eventually downside risk to them then upside at present ...but all have their own views
Actionable views should be thought out and maybe acted upon for good rewards ...trading is much more difficult to predict then investing as trading has an element of luck also that your view is right in the short term !!
Buying FPH below $ 20 will be a winning investment sooner then latter
PS : NZD will boost revenues by 10% compared to 70 Cents ...that may be the biggest booster this year to overall analysts 1.5B revenue forecast ...but 10% is big ...1.65 B looks much better and they report in NZD so NPAT will get boost too . NZD trends will remain down till recession fears or reality around ...so maybe whole FY ...
Resurgent Covid may help a bit too ...so imo there are genuine reasons to expect upside surprises ahead from where we reached
jeez alokdhir - 10 year dropping from 4.284 to 3.66 odd is a HUGE swing
Bond traders will be happy - big gains for some?
First range is always widest just like first cut is the deepest ...now slowly it will narrow down to maybe 3.75 to 4.25 maybe ...Actually full swing was 4.284 to 3.553 ....massive gains in Bond prices ....Bank's treasuries could have done well to trade
My main point being unless something drastic happens 4.284 should be able to cover this cycles top ...75% certainty at present
So yield decided stocks should find some stability ahead ...
Yes I understand many saying yields only adjusted Prices ...economy will adjust earnings ahead ...maybe FPH earnings are not that economy dependent ...also analysts have already dumped its earnings fully ...only will become better especially with big boost from NZD .
Maybe FPH will lead NZX recovery whenever that happens
Are we there yet ?
With a bad dose of flu, selling heaps of Airvo consumables.
Gain of 70% from this price to previous highs.
I don't want to say anything about FPH, otherwise I might spook the horses. 😎
Stats NZ export data for June looks promising in assessing FPH revenues for F23
When alokdhir and the guys at Forbar put the number in their models expect them to upgrade their sales forecast.
Nothing much in June exports data ...just 5% up then last two months ...so estimated at another $ 125 Mil revenue ...
Maybe FPH is getting help from recessionary switch to healthcare stocks like in USA RMD doing very well
But overall market is becoming more and more positive towards FPH and hopefully its bottomed out with worst out of the way
Ahead we have 20% growth to EPS for next 3-5 years almost in the bag as per almost all the analysts
57 cents , 73 cents and 90 cents are higher end eps estimates for next 3 years
Hardware/consumables ratio could be blurring the numbers.
Higher margins on consumables
Jeez ... FPH share price went over 22 bucks earlier
Makes 25 bucks sooner than later a near certainty ... just a few days of exuberance way
still P/E high...not saying it wont go higher...
shes a goodie ..
Kingfish keeping the faith --- either in FPH or maybe in themselves
Sam said - 'We increased our position size during the quarter.'
Looks like they've got about 400,000 more shares that at March quarter - more shares but $ holding down about $5m. Total held now about 3.3 million shares
Talk about keeping the faith - seems they've bought another million A2 shares in last quarter as well
I see Wellington Drive have hired FPH's Group Chief Engineer
Orion Health have taken on FPH's General Manager Commercial (International Sales) ....is retiring CEO's son in law
No doubt a few new faces at FPH - that's often a good thing - new ideas etc etc etc
what's up alokdhir .... fph share price heading back to 20 bucks
isn't it meant to be going the other way by now
Next FPH announcement could be interesting
"When the stock opened, it went down as much as 5.5% – clearly an overreaction"
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...r-this-biotech
FPH will say something about current year at AGM on 24th August ...thats when it may get some boost to get out its recent trading range of 20.50 to 22
FPH provides guidance for the first half of FY23 - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare provides guidance for first half of FY23
Auckland, New Zealand, 19 August 2022 – Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited today provided revenue and net profit after tax guidance for the first half of the 2023 financial year ending 30 September 2022.
At current exchange rates, and assuming a continuation of trading conditions in the first four months, the company expects operating revenue for the first half of the 2023 financial year to be approximately $670 million and net profit after tax to be approximately $85 million to $95 million.
This would represent an increase in revenue on pre-pandemic levels (1HFY20: $570.9M) and a decline in revenue compared to the prior comparable period (1HFY22: $900.0M).
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lewis Gradon said, “As we detailed in our full year results announcement, we dramatically increased production in response to the pandemic. As a result, we sold approximately ten years’ worth of hardware in two years – to hospitals all around the world.
“Our customers also purchased a considerable amount of hospital consumables in preparation for each wave of COVID-19. During the most recent waves of the Omicron variant, fewer patients have required hospitalisation and respiratory support. We believe customer stock levels have been elevated during our first half, which impacts our short-term sales.
“This does not change the fundamentals of our business or our strategy. Our Hospital sales teams are still focused on changing clinical practice and helping ensure the hardware our customers have purchased is used to benefit a broader range of patients requiring respiratory support.”
First half FY23 guidance
For the Hospital product group in the first half of FY23, the company assumes that in constant currency:
• hardware revenue reduces to a pre-pandemic level by the end of the half;
• new applications consumables revenue is about 75% of the prior comparable period, and above pre-pandemic levels; and
• invasive consumables revenue is approximately equal to the prior comparable period.
Gross margin for the first half is expected to be approximately 60%, which is below the company’s long-term target of 65%.
“The pandemic continues to adversely impact gross margin due to elevated freight and COVID-19 related costs. This year, we are also experiencing some manufacturing inefficiencies, as we are carefully balancing demand fluctuations and targeted inventory levels with manufacturing throughput – while managing higher rates of absenteeism in our manufacturing workforce due to sickness.
“Although we have reduced our manufacturing cost base over the past six months, manufacturing inefficiencies are likely to persist for this financial year as demand stabilises and inventory levels reduce to our targets.
“Product mix also adversely impacts gross margin, because new applications consumables make up a reduced proportion of total hospital consumables.
“We expect operating expenses for the first half to grow by approximately 5% in constant currency. This is consistent with our plan to continue to invest for long-term sustainable growth,” Mr Gradon continued.
Looking forward
“There are ongoing uncertainties around our customers’ inventory levels, their staffing challenges and their current capacity for adopting clinical change. We also do not know to what extent respiratory therapies will be required during the Northern Hemisphere winter. For those reasons, we are not currently providing quantitative revenue or earnings guidance for the full 2023 financial year.
“However, we believe that second half revenue for the 2023 financial year will be higher than in the first half, based on the following expectations:
• hospitalisation rates will reflect pre-COVID-19 seasonal patterns, resulting in higher consumption of hospital consumables in the second half compared to the first half.
• improving global supply of CPAP hardware and the recent launch of our new Evora Full face mask will contribute to continued Homecare growth for the remainder of the year.
“Assuming current freight costs, COVID-19 related costs, and manufacturing inefficiencies persist through the year, gross margin for the second half would remain broadly similar to the first half.”
The company is now targeting constant currency operating expense growth of approximately 10% for the year.
“To deliver on our aspiration of doubling our constant currency revenue every five to six years, we believe it is essential that we continue to grow our investment in our R&D activities. This includes funding clinical trials for home respiratory support products and advancing the development of new surgical technologies. We are also continuing to invest in growing our sales teams to support the significant hospital hardware placements and our expanded offering into anesthesia. We have already expanded our direct sales and distribution presence from 39 countries to 53 over the past three years.
“Never before in our history have we changed clinical practice with such a significant advantage. Our customers already have our hardware, they already have clinical experience with its use, and they already have access to a huge amount of clinical evidence. This gives us confidence that we can continue to build on our proven 50-year track record and reach more patients with our respiratory therapies. We continue to be confident executing on our long-term growth opportunities,” concluded Mr Gradon.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s Annual Shareholders’ Meeting is scheduled for 2pm NZST, 12pm AEST (10pm USEDT) on Wednesday, 24 August. To participate go to: www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/fph22.
Is that an 'upgrade' per se Bob ....or not so good just now but more than OK in a year or so
As a result, we sold approximately ten years’ worth of hardware in two years – to hospitals all around the world.
does that mean the share wont recover for 10 yrs
So they knew this shocking news was coming and made the ASM a virtual one to avoid being pelted with with rotten eggs and tomatoes
Clever move
Sales down 26% ….. gross margins down to 60% instead of 65% and likely to stay low …..operating expenses up 10%
Heck wonder what else can go wrong
Wonder what fisher funds reckon? Still buying more?
If u look from only this year's perspective then its pretty expensive ....but if u can see the longer term picture ahead then its good value ...just like people paid 150 multiples to Tesla initially or buy loss making software stocks
Closed 18.15 AUD with 2628 M traded on ASX ...seems they like it more then here
"“To deliver on our aspiration of doubling our constant currency revenue every five to six years, we
believe it is essential that we continue to grow our investment in our R&D activities. This includes
funding clinical trials for home respiratory support products and advancing the development of new
surgical technologies. We are also continuing to invest in growing our sales teams to support the
significant hospital hardware placements and our expanded offering into anesthesia. We have
already expanded our direct sales and distribution presence from 39 countries to 53 over the past
three years.
“Never before in our history have we changed clinical practice with such a significant advantage.
Our customers already have our hardware, they already have clinical experience with its use, and
they already have access to a huge amount of clinical evidence. This gives us confidence that we
can continue to build on our proven 50-year track record and reach more patients with our
respiratory therapies. We continue to be confident executing on our long-term growth opportunities,”
concluded Mr Gradon."
https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...ph.nzx-397210/
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...30/financials/
Analysts had already penciled FY 23 S1 revenues as $ 673 M and NPAT of just $ 89 M ....Don't know they updated it so fast ...I am assuming it was already forecasted ...so nothing much bad happened then ...actually they guided 85-95 M ...knowing FPH it may turn out to be 98M ...which is above analysts consensus already on record for S1 of $ 88.9 M
FY 23 S1 was supposed to be worst and it turned out to be that way ....Forbar got it right along with UBS
Marketscreener on Thursday (I must have felt a downgrade was coming lol) had analysts saying H1 revenues 717m and npat 121m
so revenues might not be to much of a surprise but margins seem to have hurt profit big time ……like ô85m is 30% down on expectations …ouch
So what you’ve just seen and taken comfort in is a few updates ….. and they’ve gonecwith guidance for their guesswork
alokdhir - I assume you also noticed that marketscreener has full year 23 forecast revenues at 1,460m and profit at 199m
That profit forecast of 199m is 30% lower than earlier in the week ,,,,and to get there they are still forecasting further decline in sales v pcp
No wonder analysts were rather shocked
FPH say '....we believe that second half revenue for the 2023 financial year will be higher than in the
first half ....'
So slightly more than 670m ....slightly could mean anything buts let say 700m
If 700m that's 11% down pcp (in F22)
That'll take full year sales to 1,370m (a lot lower than marketscreener forecast) which is nearly 20% down on F22
Put that all together and full year profit likely to 200m .....or 35 cents/share
Need to work on my FCF model with latest view of the world
Did they say slightly higher, or did you introduce this qualifier?
Anyway - based on marketscreener forecasts (which, as we all know, are sometimes right and sometimes wrong) would FPH have a forward earning CAGR of 8.2 (based on 3 years forward and 7 years backward) and a forward revenue CAGR (same time window) of 10.1.
Add to that a forward PE of 31: They are not really cheap at the moment, but cheaper than for a long time back. Probably fairly priced, but for sure, can drop further ... hype waves are so unpredictable predictable, just watch them building up on sharetrader ;) ;
I agree ...No reason to be buying it . No reason to sell it also now ...so let the big boys sort it out .
But I am sure ...." FPH will be back one day in the future ...lol ...just like Terminator " :p
Coffee with friend (not one of those bowling acquaintances lol) this morningv- he was lamenting the pathetic divie he was getting from FPH - muttered something about not being rewarded waiting for the share price to go up.
Bought in the low $30s so his gross yield currently less than 2%
I told him they essentially payout 100% of free cash flow (they did keep a bit of the 2021 bonanza year) so can't pay higher divies.
He didn't seem to grasp the explanation of a low yield is a consequence of buying high PE stocks, even when I explained the earnings yield on stock with a PE of 40 is 2.5%.
And when I said people don't buy the likes of FPH for a dividend his response was along the lines of 'I thought it was a blue chip - and blue chips are meant to earn solid returns with a low risk of loss.'
Think he's accepted the fact it is going to take many many years before he's in positive territory.
FPH is going thru a perfect storm ...but not all so high PE and covid high flyers landed up in same boat ...MFT is still shining and rearing to go . Even safer property stocks dropped 60% like OCA etc ....
Though I understand FPH is going thru tough times for various reasons but so are many others ...even a low PE , high dividend payer HGH dropped from 2.59 to 1.80 !! So I will still have faith in FPH like in others ....It will come back sooner then others ....this 6 months is its all bad blood out half ...advise him to hang in there . Like u saw before it has the capacity to be darling again ...lol
Its P/e is not contracting ...rather its expanding as it happens at the bottom of cycle ...so its not future discounting at work but actual business going thru difficult time or at trough after a huge peak ....when that settles to normal or mean levels like any wave then its SP will also revert to it mean trend
FYI current eps consensus is just 36 cents and current mean price targets is $ 22.61 ...ie p/e of 62 !!! so its not future cash flow discounting at work !!!
I like this phrase when thinking about the Companies I invest in :
"The business of Business is to stay in business".
i.e. Is the Co. forward looking? Does it have a sound strategy Is it constantly evolving it's customer / product propositions and offerings? Is it investing well to enable these outcomes and goals? Who are it's greatest competitors today and tomorrow? Can todays margins, cashflow, debt facilities generate future revenue streams?? Does it have great culture and strong leadership?
Like the other Orgs, these are the questions I like to research for FPH and make then decision to invest on. In this context, the SP of the day can blend to the background