Bank 90 day rates seemed rather high not that long ago Ssurfersteve
Must be a mistake .... but from the same website you linked
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and then if you if put it in for years and not months they were higher eh
Oh hells bells ... no wonder the old folks are maonign and groanings and moved their TD into shares .... they must have taken a huge cut in income when their 9% term deposits matured
surfersteve's excitement over SKC lead me to having another look at their prospects. Hadn't really looked at for years so updated some of the old files
My lasting impression with SKC is that even with all the good stuff they do they never seem to grow. Doesn't seem to have changed
Always best to look at a full cycle of say 10 years because half cycles of 5 years can be misleading, especially these days as 5 years ago was has the impact of the GFC in the numbers. Not a good place to start looking at long term performance over a complete cycle
SKC NPAT and Dividends since 2003 charted below. I think Adelaide/Hamilton were on stream then, Darwin a bit later.
But whatever the key metrics are -
- Revenues have grown at 4.5% pa over the last 10 years. Not that staggering is it
- NPAT (normalised) has ranged between $98m and $141m with an average of $111m. Growth rate from 2003 has been 2.4% pa which is slightly less than what revenues have grown by.
- Already a earnings downgrade this year so forecast is NPAT to be down in 2014 and recovering in 2015.
- Dividends have ranged from 15.5 c/s to 26.5 c/s and averaged 20 c/s. The 26 c/s payouts were back on 2004 and 2006 and going from memory the need for capex was not that great. Dividends since then have been lower and the current 20c/s is the highest for some time.
- Broker forecasts suggest 19c/s to 20 c/s in 2014 and 20c/s in 2014
- If we agree that 20c/s is a good number for the next few years than one could hardly call SKC a growth company can we. At best all the indications based on the past and the guru expectations are that 20 c/s is the shareholders lot.
So is valuation of SKC essentially what punters are prepared to pay for a 20 cent dividend ..... maybe a little future growth built. Based on the current shareprice that seems the case .... and there is little to suggest the shareprice itself is likely to boom from here.
Yes, no discussion about future prospects of having a convention centre and boom economic times. But over the last 10 years SKC have expanded, there has been boom times and there has been other ups and downs, just like the future will entail
So my feeling is that SKC will generate revenues of $800-$900m and make about $130-$140m and pay a 20 cent dividend for the next few years
Niot much to get excited about
Easier to just move to Australia Percy, where SKC earnings are still growing when measured in that currency. I guess this is just another example of how misleading it is to only look at the share price in NZ.
All SKC plans are still on track in Australia. The appreciation of the NZ dollar has reduced the upcoming capital spend in Adelaide Australia by $NZ50m, which will more than offset any drop in earnings from Australia over the next five years. The winding down of Holden will provide plenty of job hunters to staff the new expanded casino in Adelaide. I would say SKC is one of the few obvious buys on the NZX. I would be buying myself if I didn't already hold a significant parcel. And even so, I do have a cheeky bid in the market to buy more if the share price should decline in the short term.
SNOOPY
Just thought you might have changed a bit from reading some of comments yesterday about the 'fundamentals'. obviously mistaken so please forgive me
Least it made me have a look
Keep to your 5 screens ad make heaps steve ......does sound more like you anyway
Cheers
You hold SKC both short and long? Care to further explain that Surfersteve?
Whatever the share price does, as per Winner's post this has been a stable reliable dividend play over many years. So maybe Mr Market not very good at assessing this one?Quote:
yes i would not sell here but wait to buy and sell again later .... IE for the next 3 years... you wont get a stock like this one very often ..
With hindsight I agree with you. But I do think the Ryman business model is much more difficult to understand than SKC!Quote:
if you are a long term holder perhaps you would like to buy retirement villages ....
these are stocks you should have bought 7 years ago ....
they pay no dividends much but you will make good gains ...
Only in the sense that anything perceived as volatile is a good trading stock. My only problem with trading a share that is fundamentally fair value or below fair value is that eventually your trading system will have you out of SKC when all the fundamental signals say you should be in (like now?). Long term being out of SKC is not where you want to be!Quote:
if you trade then SKC is a good TRADING stock ..
SNOOPY
A 20c dividend is equivalent to a gross return of 7.5% at $3.80 share price. Not to be sneezed at. If interest rates go up will the share price fall to maintain a competitive yield? Possibly. But I think the growth initiatives in Auckland (Convention Centre), Adelaide and Darwin all of which are monopoly locations for casinos where SKC owns the licences are enough to counter the pressure from potentially rising interest rates.
IMO SKC have had a huge year, completely reversing your past snapshot Winner of a decade of no progress. The renegotiations of the casino contracts in both Auckland and Adelaide, traded off against the redevelopment capital expenditure commitments of course, clears the path forwards. A path forwards that has been muddied since the Americas Cup was last held in Auckland IMO. Sure there will be execution risk. But doing what you have always done only better at sites you know is one of the lowest execution risk paths to follow. Let's see what Mr Morrison can now do with the NZ and South Australian Government behind him.Quote:
Yes, no discussion about future prospects of having a convention centre and boom economic times. But over the last 10 years SKC have expanded, there has been boom times and there has been other ups and downs, just like the future will entail
The main downside risk I can see is Labour/Greens pulling out of the Convention Centre deal and SKC making a large profit of the proposed construction site. Maybe I'm a bit dull, but I find SKC carries exactly the right level of excitement for this mutt.
SNOOPY
SKC is on the move.
Results in line with expectations and a profit upgrade is hinted at.
Meanwhile, BlackRock (the world's biggest asset manager) has been buying and has just added on another 6m shares during the price weakness.
Only one way for this share to go in the next 12 months.
Valuation from two major broking houses - in excess of $5.00.