You should be charging for this Phaedrus
Come on keep banging your head against the brick wall
Printable View
http://www.wtrg.com/daily/clfclose.gif
Is that a double top I spy on this chart :eek:
Good lad!
My work here is done.
Strat, i went to bed thinking the same thing last night!
Thanks P, dont think its ever wasted!
I think you've got yourself a little confused there, Tricha. It's TRAINS that leave stations, not ships.
That is an unfortunate comment all the same. I'll bet you don't want to be reminded of when you last said something like that!
Gentle readers, the stock is PEM and all the comments are direct quotes from Tricha's posts. This is a startling example of how "a fundamentalist through and through" goes about investing. It's all there - averaging down, quotes from Buffett, the lot. $5.30 to $1.30 in just 7 months and buying more all the way down.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/Tricha.gif
PS : Tricha, what makes you so sure that I don't hold any CUE?
An absolute classic Phaedrus. A great example to use in a textbook - readers would learn a hell of a lot. Thanks a million.
CUE quarterly made for nice reading...
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=302437
Might have to join the party :D
Shrewd - "Im asking for you to call CUE when its a buy and we can track you against Me with a 21.8cent average and I will double my holdings to under 21c average if Cobra is a dud...
Thats all im saying..."
Phaedrus "Don't bother waiting for me to post more CUE signals here, Shrewdy. There is no point. I am not interested in making "calls" or entering into competitions with you. I was simply trying to show how you could use TA to improve your entry points. If you (and others) don't want to know, that's OK."
U really disappoint me Phaedrus.
But then I'm not suprised, looking in the rear vision mirror, looking at the clouds, obscured by the sun, coming up with historical events.
If u never tell anyone which shares you hold, I guess no one can judge u and u r always right.:p U R a winner :)
Phaedrus - "year later and you are still not in profit - all the TA based entries are though."
I've openly admitted, PEM would have to be one of my worst mistakes and I have made lots more and I'll make more again. NWE, BMA, CTO the list goes on.
U still have to have an exit stragedy and its working.
If I get 4-5 right out of ten I'll do OK.
PEM had nothing to do with T\A. It had all to do with fundamentals. And I'm the Fool for not picking up on them. :(
So heres the big question, what do u hold, do u hold CUE and when did u buy.
Please do not disappoint and change the subject like u did with Shrewd.
P.S I guess u have never been to Fremantle either have u Phaedrus
Yes Trica I can see where you are coming from can Mr P really pick the future, the past looks easier?
Tim23.,
Phaedrus is a legend. Have a look at the BOW chart and if that aint a double top then I would like to know what is. I never saw it. Just believed in fundamentals.
Which is why I am holding BOW. It will be a bit of a wait until we hit new highs, but we will.
And when the next double top occurs, I might take a bit of notice.
Cue's quarterley was ok and Maari will help. How they heat that crude I dont know. I prefer sweet light Tapis grade Tui. It is easier to get out of the ground.
Wouldnt want to be on a rig tonite. Wind and rain about to arrive.
Tim23.,
Phaedrus is a legend. Have a look at the BOW chart and if that aint a double top then I would like to know what is. I never saw it. Just believed in fundamentals.
I won;t bother but does the chart rules the fundamentals?
So chart = sentiment?
I really dont get why TA and FA has to be a battle and why it has to be personal. The two combined are useful and still not the whole picture. We never get the whole picture and if we did we would of course be insider traders. No one system for investing or part of an investment system works every time so to ignore any tool that has a proven track record for success is plain nuts.
80% of every dumb move I have made was on the chart if I had looked hard enough or had the skills to read it right and 80% of my best buys have been tips from Fundies with simple TA entries and exits. You guys do the math.
Strat, it sounds simple in reality but what do you do when TA says sell and FA says buy? It's a bad case of analysis paralysis and really messes you up if you are faced with this situation constantly (OEL myself and NZO more recently). On the other hand buying into small oil companies is a fundamental step at improving the risk-reward ratio, and having said that I believe that TA is not essential to investing. I am now looking to use a value-based FA system as a filter (CANSLIM?) and then applying TA to companies that have passed that test.
The key thing is having a money management system and being flexible enough to admit you were wrong about a company and bail with a small loss. TA may not have prevented MacDunk and Tricha's PEM disaster but it would have helped with setting stop losses for money management.
Hi AMR,
That was kinda my point. Not any one system works every time and it often comes down to weighing up the pros and cons in a well rounded manner. As AA says its Mr market we are really playing more than anything. Of course it can still turn to crap even then.
Sounds like you have done a bit of a 180 on TA but Im sure you are just adding to your toolbox.
I got excited by Tricha and Maccas posts on PEM but the chart stopped me pushing the buy button thankfully.
AA
all things considered I think the entry point on that last chart of yours may be wrong :p
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-ite...S=ORG&N=514394
Rig ready to be moved, weather window early next week:)!
Phaedrus,Quote:
phaedrus-Don't bother waiting for me to post more CUE signals here, Shrewdy. There is no point. I am not interested in making "calls" or entering into competitions with you. I was simply trying to show how you could use TA to improve your entry points. If you (and others) don't want to know, that's OK.
This is not a competition... this is about CUE itself and you have said dont buy CUE wait... "wait for what", one might ask...
I will tell you..... we will Wait for you to come back in 6 months with your pretty charts showing the great entry points that we had on the offering... These convient entry points you post 6 months after the event dont mean anything, because you never call them...
....
you say dont buy now, wait.... wait for it to fall to the green trendline, or wait for it to rise to the Magneta line...
So Expected buy price is somewhere in the middle around 22cents...
buying now is much better because if Cobra is a gusher then expect a big gap up, and if Final drilling results are late and Ensoc is on location then there might be no downside at all...
No phaedrus, you dissapoint me...Quote:
phaedrus-
You do disappoint me though. You are proposing to "evaluate" the worth of TA on the basis of a single signal from a single indicator on a single stock! That is a crazy suggestion which would prove nothing and I won't be humouring you on this. There is no need for us to launch our own investigation - we can learn from the research of others, statistics and from our own historical results.
The only crazy thing is someone of your ability not prepared to put his neck on the line and pick an entry for CUE... Your talent has gone to waste in this instance because as a technical charter, picking an entry price is probably the single most important thing....
this is not TA vs FA... I am going to learn the trade next year...
TA is very important...
thanks for your charts and commentary...
:cool:
.^sc
One might ask, but most would have been in no doubt at all!
Here is what I said over a week ago :-
"I have drawn a tentative short-term trendline (magenta) and the logical thing for Shephejame to do is wait - and buy if/when CUE breaks above this trendline."
Incredibly, it would appear that you have failed to understand this simple sentence, furthermore for some reason you want me to actually tell you when this happens - something you deem to be "making a call"(!)
OK Shrewdy, I'll spoon feed you, if that's what you really want. It looks like today is the day, giving Shephejame an entry into CUE at 22 cents.
My pleasure. It's nice to have my efforts appreciated.
After reading all these posts I get the feeling that you guys like CUE. I do too but I always found Tweedie litigious. A bit like that fellow from Greymouth.
Suffered a bit with TEX today and sold out very early. You guys have taught me. When you see bad news, hit the button. Dont hang around trying to invent good news . Get out quick.
In honour of this site I am buying CUE tomorrow.
All the interest generated from this site may even confirm the new trend ; )
I guess any break over say 23c on volume, might indictate further "the right time"?
Right. It would take a Close of over 23 cents to give a new "short-term" (4 week) uptrend.
Volumes have been very low - well below average. Without volume confirmation, this breakout will not get very far.
Note also that the Stochastic oscillator, while it is in "OverSold" territory, has not yet risen far enough to give a "Buy" signal.
Another positive indication would be an OBV trendline break. (A break above a straight line drawn from the September high to the May high.)
strike one, strike two, strike OIL....
hahaha....
get ready for the third sidetrack...
im getting more CUE over the next day or so...
later...
:cool:
.^sc
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3156/...15786a.jpg?v=0
Red shows Oil... Green Shows Gas cap
See how Maari-1 hit the very top of the anticline...
See how Manaia was drilled off center...
If they re-drill manaia 600-800 meters (guess) North, then kaboom...
... The manaia structure was not drilled in the most optimal location (back in 1970)...This is why HZN reckon they could yield up to 35-40 million barrels more...
:cool:
.^sc
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3290/...bb7874.jpg?v=0
Heres abit more information...
The Maari Development program currently consists only of production from the Moki Formation with P50 of 50million barrels, with 140 Million barrels in place...
so as for adding to reserves we have Kapuni formation (mangahewa)
from both Manaia, and Maari.. Moki formation in Manaia, and M2a in The main field...
so big upside to just the current development of the Moki formation in main field...
Appraisal of manaia and further testing in the main field could net
---> closer to 5 million barrels recoverable to CUE...
When you compare the Market cap to this alone then wow...
Thats without the two other major developing projects...
Whole portfolio of exploration drills coming...
further appraisal drilling on its way...
PNG assets...
Current Revenues of approximately 4million per month...
Watch out...
....
I bought a few more shares today at 21.5c...
sellers now at 21c...
:cool:
.^sc
Good to see u r doing your homework Shrewdy (excellent stuff), instead of wasting valuable time, staring up at the sky and cloud watching.
Yes, any one off many potential explosive events, could unfold and in the blink of a trade, u r sitting there, watching the boat leave the station.:rolleyes:
Mr Shrewdude,
Much appreciate your info ; keep it coming , you seem to have good depth on the subject . Thanks again Shrewdcue
shephejame, don't be too focused on the small percentage of interest. you're better served to look at the income vs current market cap. cue's 5% share is set to deliver somewhere in the vicinity of 600,000 barrels of oil to cue in 2009 alone. at US$100 per barrel that's US$60m (gross) to CUE. current market cap is AUD$130m. and remember that is just one year of maari which is just one income stream for CUE. maari is very significant for CUE, even with a small slice of the overall take. moreover, as shrewd has pointed out, there is a very good chance that resources at and around maari will increase significantly. Have a look at pages 8 and 9 of this report to give you an idea of what's coming CUE's way.
http://cuenrg.onlinepublicity.net/fi...id=477&cid=105
-j
i'm hearing you. i rode PPP up from A$.15 to A$.34 and sold half then dropped the rest at A$.24 after the duster at... i forget the name (around the time of tui start up). for me, PPP was going to make a bundle (and they have) but they didn't have firm future endeavours - beside maitland and that still hasn't been given the green light. CUE has two significant projects that will come on stream after maari - and that i see as a key difference. after maari start up there's oyong gas, after oyong gas we have wortel gas. there is always anticipation around the corner. without any production problems, the next two years for CUE will be awesome and with an aggressive exploration schedule there is potential for a few bingo wins along the way. that's the way i see it, anyway.
-j
I'll show you the difference...http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3288/...f6a51a.jpg?v=0Quote:
shephejame-my only concern is that the market wont' recognised it. Look at PPP pulling in a lot more $$$ and the SP is same as it was a year ago. Also the MCAP equal to CUE. I know they have different projects etc
above is CUEs schedule...
Below is PPP's schedule...
.....
See, its just an empty space...
PPP have good revenues but nothing else...
The best thing possible for PPP is payout 100% dividends and wind the business down over time... They have no direction...
I have not experienced it personally but I know and have heard of many many stories about how juniors become mid caps through majorly successful projects, then then try to emulate this through other paths of growth (eg drilling), and they never hit that same luck, and end up the "shell" -where they came from... its all too common...
PPP looks ripe for this, so perhaps collecting revenues is the best thing possible.... Im not mocking PPP...
CUE have multiple drivers...
this stock will still perform if these two things happen
1)DOW falls to 9000
2)Oil falls to US $85..
Look at Mid 2009 for CUE... four wells, barikewa appraisal is set to push CUE past 50cents alone... all drills offset by Maari and First Oyong gas...
If a number of dots become connected then CUE could hit two dollars next year...
no ramp...
Ive now got over half my portfolio on CUE, since ive been buying over the last few weeks...
:cool:
.^sc
You are to early SHREWDY. It still has to trade above the thirty day moving average in this a down trending market. The time to buy is later in a less risky market. The share will give a buy signal thats when to climb on board not jump the gun trying to pick the bottom. Macdunk
Heres what Horizon are saying...
http://www.horizonoil.com.au/Press%2...lson%20HTM.pdf
shephejame...
PPP have 10% of 50million barrels from Tui...
CUE currently have 5% of 50million (2P)... with the most likely outcome of 50million barrels recoverable getting re-rated much much closer to 100million barrels, due to Manaia having the goods, appraisal drilling 1st quarter 09 into a proven field, and the other targets in the main field...
so effectively CUE will net a similar amount to what PPP will (in total net recoverable barrels).. plus all the added bonuses on multiple developing projects.... etc blah blah blah...
The reason why CUE is a slow ramp up is because they have taken on an expansive array of developing projects (multiple) which are cash thirsty...
Infact NZO is a perfect company to Model CUE off because they are so similiar in so many ways... CUE is around one year behind the NZO model...
and has more upside to it...and set to re-rate in a big way over the coming 6 months...
last quarter CUE had record quarterly revenues of 13.2m... Thats 50million annualised...135m Mcap....
But Because CUE has three main developing projects --> (maari, oyong gas, Wortel)... the capital expenditure costs are sucking up a great deal of these current strong cashflows...For this quarter alone development costs were anticipated to be 7.6 million dollars...
Between SE Gobe, Oyong Oil, Oyong Gas, Maari, Manaia (can tick a future tie in to Maari), Wortel Gas.... CUE is headed to 50cents and thats with zero exploration success...
Here I have two pics...
first one is CUE vs NZO over the last 5 years...
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3035/...ed4487.jpg?v=0
and secondly,
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3166/...aa3d08.jpg?v=0
Look at the circle of the proposed drilling location of the 1st quarter appraisal drill on Manaia...
Humm.... right in the sweet spot of the field...
yeahh haarrhh... We are going to be laughing straight to the bank with this... Its shaping up to be a slow ride in the mean time...
Best oil stock in the market...
exploration, appraisal, development, production--> foot in every stage...
best future mid tier ASX oiler...
pity how Maari development drilling has been held up, and held up, and held up time after time...
Oh well, first production late Oct, inline with Zeus well and Spikey beach (both free carried)... we will se 30 CPS in Nov... later...
Raging bull...
bye for now....
:cool:
.^sc
Hi Shrewdy
Zeus, sounds like around Phaedrus's time.
Maybe that's a sign of great things to come !
What does your research on Zeus show, listening to Peter S last night, CUE own 20% and if it comes up trumps, it's worth 80 cents a share to them.
Sorry for being lazy and not doing my own indept research :)
It's under copywright, u have to subscribe to get it at
http://www.stockanalysis.com.au/
Quote:
tricha-
Hi Shrewdy
Zeus, sounds like around Phaedrus's time.
Maybe that's a sign of great things to come !
What does your research on Zeus show, listening to Peter S last night, CUE own 20% and if it comes up trumps, it's worth 80 cents a share to them.
Sorry for being lazy and not doing my own indept research
Tricha,
Over the last 5 years I have followed a strategy (usually investing in oilers which have a few characterics/ unless I have alittle dabble in other sorts of plays..) This form of strategy I have mostly tended to involves focusing my efforts on the fundaments EG-->investing in an oiler for developing projects.... I look at zeus, and Spikey Beach as nothing more than a free gift completely offset, and downside protected through the main company drive...IE- 5th gear multiple developing projects....
Ive made some major plays in other companies who had these sorts of characterisitcs, and Exploration wells, and Ive never (or very rarely) had one pulled off... The longer I play this, the greater the chance huh...
So Im not counting my chickens just yet, But I do think there is much to be excited about with Zeus as the Region is Proven with oil and gas fields all around...
I look at Zeus as nothing more that a free shot at mammoth riches, with low downside on SP if its a failure... There will be trading opportunities for traders, I will very likely hold all the way... 30 CPS in NOV and anywhere up from there upon success......this is Risk return that gods dream of... The Zeus God is a major new lead as 3d Interprets the same Sands as the Perseus Field (which is 12 TCF gas field), and Zeus is intrepretted to be bigger perhaps around 10-15-20 TCF with upside...I drew the Zeus feature on the graph and note Persus gas Field in a Black circle...
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3130/...322dbd28_o.jpg
You can see on these graphs below, The bright spots representing "amplitude-related Hydrocarbon indicators"...
Zeus 3d of the right... Perseus 3d on the left...
You can see on the Zeus feature that there are more bright spots, and more defined---> resulting in More Gas (if it is in place)....
and if gas is present it is likely to be a bigger discovery that Perseus...
I have not seen the drilling location for Zeus, but it can also be seen on the Right that in a particular location that Legendre Sands are double stacked... MEO said Gas column could be 100m....... All this information can be seen in MEO's presentations and around and about...
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3111/...81f91eeb_o.jpg
The Permits have other great leads, and the Major Strategic alliance with "Resource Development International- RDI" could have major implications for CUE down the line as they are going to list Late this year with an IPO valued around 5 billion dollars, and will be amping to pursue these assets quickly if Zeus is a blowout...... This is the sort of cash thirsty partner we need...
Hum...
My understanding is if Zeus is a success RDI will fully fund MEO and pursue two further appraisal wells... if failure then RDI will fund MEO for one additional exploration well (subject to listing of RDI).... Zeus well is firm for Oct...
And the strategic alliance allows for 8 additional wells across the Three WA offshore permits...MEO have a 3 year commitment in each of the three NWS permits, which involves Seismics (think the seismic costs to date are around 7 Million US) fully funded by MEO... and MEO (now its new partner) will pay 90% of the first exploration well in each of the permits (WA-359P, WA-360P, WA361P), giving CUE potentially three free carried wells at 15% stake, or a chance to pay 5% and increase their stake to 20%...
Zeus is in WA-361P.... Zeus is the most exciting well in Australian waters of 2008....
very big target...
CUE has a shot at one dollar per share this year, with little downside and a Farmin deal to the NWS worth tens of millions of dollars to CUE in free carried costs and Seismic costs...
What a dream...
Spikey beach will be charging (free carried aswell) in October...
aswell as First Maari Oil...
30 CPS minimum....
this will be easy money....
more than 50% of my portfolio on it...
later...
:cool:
.^sc
Oh,
The bright spots on The LHS graph represent Gas dicoveries in the Perseus field in the Legendre sands, which is exactly what the Zeus well is targeting...
very interesting...
:cool:
.^sc
the wild card is of course cobra. if that come up trumps you'll miss .22 by a few cents as it will gap up. if it's finally proven to be a duster (what a terrible drill it's proven to be) the sp will dip - but i have a feeling the downside will be pretty limited. time will tell... i'm rather pleased the thread has come alive. CUE is one of my two favorite picks for the end of what has been a pretty tough year.
-j
goo goo ga ga...Quote:
phaedrus-OK Shrewdy, I'll spoon feed you, if that's what you really want. It looks like today is the day, giving Shephejame an entry into CUE at 22 cents.
hey Phaedrus...
no need to spoon feed me, but if you really want to take me out for lunch then im a starter...:)...
I think bermuda was offering to take Skol out for lunch, so perhaps the two king pins could take us less immortals out.. huh...
Interesting to note you tipped CUE at 22cents on the 4th of this month, on this thread and the very next day the SP hit 20.5cents (on the 5th)...
hum.... thats rather interesting given the fact that your charts are presented in such a way that picking the absolute bottom sounds like clock work...
Im sitting on an average somewhere between 21.6-21.7c...(have not worked it out after my last purchase)...
Oil down 5 bucks over the weekend, and Cue sideways...
this will perform if the DOW falls to 9k and Oil falls to 90 bucks...
It dont matter... fundamentals to strong to ignore this stock indefinately into the future...
The bearish sentiment has stifled buyers, but they will come...
Im prepared to back the truck up and put everything I have on it, but I just cant bring myself to sell up my other positions...
we will have to be patient...
30 cents in November....
On the downside CUE will finish the year at 30cents....
on the upside CUE Will finish the year at $1...
risk return very good... (bar huge market risk)...
If the market tanks then CUE will tank, but then so will all other stocks...
Its best that you hold CUE then...
thanks...
:cool:
.^sc
I would hold if I owned, but I'm in no mood to buy.
I didn't "tip" CUE, Shrewdy - I simply pointed out that the trendline had been broken. Anyone wanting confirmation of this buy signal might like to wait for the Stochastic oscillator to trigger a Buy signal or for the OBV to rise (it is flat-lining). You seem to think that a subsequent intraday low of 20.5 somehow detracts from the trendline break signal. It doesn't. For the trendline break signal to be proved "right" CUE would need to Close above 23. For the trendline break signal to be proved "wrong" CUE would need to Close below 20.5. Until either of these occur, the jury is still out on the "worth" of this signal. Intraday highs and lows don't count.
You're not paying attention, Shrewdy. The indicators and chart patterns shown here have their "Buy" signals triggered by price rises. Can you not see that, by definition, such a system can NEVER EVER buy at the absolute bottom?
Quote:
Phaedrus-I didn't "tip" CUE,
If this aint a tip off, then I dont know what is!Quote:
phaedrus-OK Shrewdy, I'll spoon feed you, if that's what you really want. It looks like today is the day, giving Shephejame an entry into CUE at 22 cents.
whats all this, today is the day talk...
giving "shephejame" an entry into cue at 22c...
Id feel for the poster that bought because you said buy, and now you come across undecided and run to the techs for cover....
Should Shephejame now sell or continue to hold?
given that your previous advice has now changed...
:)
.^sc
thanks shasta....
......
Im not going to post on the CUE thread until the SP hits 27 cents...
Its just plain offensive to see the SP languish....
If it does not hit that price then I will never post here again...fact...
Remember the last time I said that, This time I mean it for real...;)...
Last time I said it it took awhile but eventually went Kaboomm....
To readers out there,
you are plain mad if you are not buying CUE (and you are holding other stocks)...
sell your house... sell your NZO shares (;))...
Do some research, it is plain to see... 3.5 m barrels of oil 2P...
likely to be 6 Million barrels of Oil (including Manaia- sure thing tie in) plus Gas reserves... and current revenues of around 45million per year, for a 135 M cap with two free Oct wells...
sell the cat... rip an arm off and pawn it in...
Sell your blood... forget about Christmas Presents... have three of them next year....
this is the best oil stock I have ever seen in
5 years of investing...
bar nothing...
No more ramping....
I wont reply, I wont debate with others...
Ive been back in for 3 weeks give or take and this just ain cricket...
Im out of here....
I hope to say I'll be back soon, I cant be sure when that will be...
Tell your mother, tell your sister to watch this stock...
Outskies.... bye...
:cool:
.^sc
[/qoute]
Do some research, it is plain to see... 3.5 m barrels of oil 2P...[/QUOTE]
SC - nice post. Isn't it more like 2.5? (5% of 50m current 2p reserves).
Shrewdy, I think you are being deliberately obtuse.
"whats all this, today is the day talk...giving "shephejame" an entry into cue at 22c..."
That was the day of the trendline break as discussed previously.
"and now you come across undecided"
I have merely pointed out that other indicators are yet to fire. Are you unfamiliar with the concept of confirmation? This, too, was discussed in my original post ("Better yet, why not wait until both criteria are met") I'm sure Shepejame understood perfectly well. Why can't you? When buying, we all have to decide on the level of confirmation we require before acting.
"Should Shephejame now sell or continue to hold?"
Pay attentionShrewdy. I have already spelt out what it would take to make the trendline break signal "wrong".
"given that your previous advice has now changed..."
Huh? Steady on lad! I suggest that you go back to my original post on page 12 and read it again. Carefully this time.
"Id feel for the poster that bought because you said buy"
Save your faux sympathy SC. Shepejame certainly appreciated my opinion :- Phaedrus, what can I say except that your post is probably the best reply I have had to a question during my time at ST. It is also very assuring that I came to the same conclusion in relation to buying when the SP breaks the Magenta line. Many thanks for the time you put into the post.
HE was happy with my response, that's the important thing - your opinion doesn't matter.
Here we have a stock you have fallen in love with and I get all this grief for posting a BUY signal! Incredible!
First post on this site-only discovered it very recently!
Shrewd Crude we share your sentiments on CUE and were buying solidly for several weeks-average now 22cents.
Both my colleague and myself were in CUE around the time of JERUK 1 when CUE went from 6-30+ CENTS and now are 100% in again and are both positive that CUE will grow to be worth multiples of its present SP over the next couple of years.
CUEs small highly experienced management team, large investment by SPC, huge 2P gas and oil reserves rapidly approaching the production phase, plus 2 free carried high impact wells later this year are a potent combination.
A lot of money has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for cobra1 I believe. If Cobra is positive SP will leap-OSH is clearly very interested in that section of HEDINA sandstone, interested enough to drill in a third sidetrack.
If Cobra is Negative, a small sell off is probable that will be rapidly absorbed and not of any significant volume.
We are very happy to have been able to accumulate our investment at 22cents and holding longer term.
Very very undervalued and massive upside from here IMO.
A future blue chip company.
Best of luck to all investors in CUE.
Welcome to Sharetrader Oiler.
Great to have some fundamental analysis for CUE moving forward.
Hopefully u will keep on posting here while Shrewd goes on holiday.
If Cobra sucessful it will be a short lived one.
Its very quite simple.
Cobra + = trend line broken and the price moves up.
Cobra - = trend line remains broken.
Like u and Shrewd quite rightly pointed out, it does not matter where the trend line is, as long as you are on board the boat and u r not at the Fremantle Railway station watching it leave.;)
With oil companies things tend to change in a blink of an eye. With what CUE has going, there will be a lot of Blinking :rolleyes:
Trendlines. The root cause of this problem AA is the fact that CUE is in a decelerating downtrend. This happens on occasion and the net result is a series of trendlines being drawn and then broken as the downtrend becomes progressively shallower. So, both of your trendlines are correctly drawn. Your yellow one is #8 and your red one is #9. Both were broken before they were confirmed.
Trends. We are interested here in monitoring the "medium-term" trend that began back in May. Now, this gave a series of lower highs and lower lows all the way down to the point marked LOW. At that point, CUE went into a short-term uptrend (marked by light green trendline) as it twice made a higher high after a higher low ending at the point marked HIGH. That short-term uptrend is a component of the medium term downtrend, just as the current medium-term downtrend is a component of the long-term uptrend.
Trends are assumed to be in effect until they are reversed. CUE's medium-term downtrend has now made a Low, a High, and a Higher Low. To confirm a medium-term uptrend (ending the current medium-term downtrend) it would have to make a Higher High by Closing above 23 cents.
A Close below 21 cents would confirm a new short-term downtrend (a lower low after a lower high) and a new Low of below 20.5 cents would mark the continuation of the medium-term downtrend.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CUE812.gif
Id be inclined to agree with that:D
Regarding Phaedus though I think you are off the mark Shrewdy. He presented the indicators as they appeared on the day. I read "Today is the day" to mean the SP had met or broken the Trend line but thats all. "giving Shephejame an entry into CUE at 22 cents." meant if she was to buy on that indicator alone then today would be the day she would do it. Not a suggestion that she should. TA never predicts the bottom but indicates it has been and gone soon after the fact ( and its not fool proof )
Thats just how I read the posts.
thanks Phaedus, and thx AA for linking me to this.
am watching
UD, was thinking the same thing (double top creating resistance ?) but unsure.. can we span it from that far?
thx.
It was resistance at 29 cents that caused the Double Top. It would not be unreasonable to expect resistance again at that level. The resistance at 22 cents and at 23 cents needs to be overcome first though! UnderDog has referred to this in a previous post.
steady on, tricha. i think the vast majority of posters greatly appreciate Phaedrus's commentary. maybe just a wee bit harsh there, mate.
-j
SHREWDY, You are starting to sound like SNOOPY raving on about RBD, boxing yourself into a corner because of your love affair with CUE. Its a very big mistake picking bottoms, you end up covered in pooh. Its also a very big mistake to ignore market sentiment which can be found in charts from the past. The time to buy CUE is when the market gives a buy signal, not before as you are doing. Look at the sp of NZO downtrending as it makes huge bank deposits from production, like never before. Work out what moving average suited the sp in the past, then take that as your buy signal. Dont ever think that you are so right that you cant be wrong. CUE has been a dead loss of late downtrending, dont jump the gun. Macdunk
MD is changing his strategy though UD...and learning some stuff off P.
He states 'Work out what moving average suited the sp in the past, then take that as your buy signal'...
Looks like you can teach an old dog new tricks :o
U R onto it Shrewd :p
I'm joining u, 27 cents it is.
U has Skol who is pumping airlines and does not hold them :rolleyes:
U have Phaedrus who is holding thin air and does not know it :rolleyes:
And u have that piece of work " Sector Surfa " back again with his positive attributes.:D
We will see u at 27 :cool:
I completely agree 100% with SHREWDCRUDES sentiment on CUE.
Have progressively accumulated a large holding at 22cents and would be continuing to buy at these present bargain basement levels if more investment capital was available.
Anyone who is new to CUE Energy read the following Oil and Gas Gazette article posted on CUE website and make your own mind up.
http://www.cuenrg.com/index.php?opti...d=31&Itemid=44
When you have read that you will understand why I consider it to have far superior potential to NZO.
Two comments we have found of further interest were:
*2 further wells to be drillled at JERUK next year.
*A possible Taranaki Basin farmin.
I also agree with SHREWDCRUDES analysis of Manaias potential to boost the greater Maari field to near 100million barrels.
Thanks for your welcome TRICHA / SHREWD.
There is really nothing more to say that has not already been speld out by SHREWDCRUDE etc on here. Will also wait for the 27cents to post
Best of luck to all CUE investors.
Hi Shrewd Crude.
It is and exercise in futility to argue with this market, as it is not trading on fundamentals, but fear and panic. And it could be some time before any sort of sanity prevails. Accordingly, in this climate, TA is pretty ineffective.
If you think that Cue is bad, you should be a holder of some of the other oilers- like Beach-then you would be justified in ranting. Despite Cue trading at a significant discount to NVA , it is nowhere near as bad as some of the others.
I hope to bring my mate Bob- who has a truckload of Cue-, to the Christchuch Convention and you can both cry into your beer. In the meantime, my advise is, batten down the hatches and be stoic.;)
:)
Hi folks,
CUE ..... if you think it's bad now ... maybe check on it tomorrow 13082008,
especially, if it breaks down through key support, at 20.5 cents ... and again,
later this month, around 28082008, as we see 2 strongly negative cycles
move in on CUE ..... will be alert for a low around that time.
Next round of positive time cycles and the first sign of recovery for CUE
is expected, around 26-29092008 ..... :)
October 2008 should be a good month for CUE, especially around
09-13102008 and 28-29102008, with a negative cycle between,
expected on 23102008.
November 2008 should be also positive for CUE, in the first 3 weeks,
but from 21112008-to-month's end, we expect to see three (3)
significant and negative time cycles in play.
December 2008 - Expecting minor and positive news from CUE,
around 15-16122008.
January 2009 ... significant and positive cycle 08012009.
February 2009 ... positive spotlight on CUE, on 23-24022008.
More later.
have a great day
paul
:)
=====
AA, i don't think your patience will be tested. first oil next month and zeus drilling october. cheap CUE is soon to be a thing of the past. i think it will be mid 30s by the time the zeus drill is ready to go (almost certainly more if cobra proves to be commercial). both short and long term this looks to be an excellent play.
-j
Stronger buying interest all of a sudden
two good company announcements today. 3d seismic survey beginning in the camarvon basin and cobra looking like it might yet give us some cheer. if the latter occurs, shrewd will be back posting sooner rather than later. should know by monday (third time lucky for cobra?). if cobra fails, however, punters may have one more shot at accumulating in the low 20s - but i see downside as pretty limited. it's going to be an interesting ride from here on in.
-j
Arr Phaedrus the great one.
U did not pick the bottom, ???????????????????
U see Shrewd is a technical analyst, based on facts, where as, you are based on, sorry to say this, the past.
Historical bull....
U see the bottom was based on the price of oil, not facts.
U either believe in " peak oil or u do not "
Gold is here forever, oil is gone forever.]
And CUE has it.;)
Not sure yet if I jumped the gun on Friday, but in for the ride to 30+ fingers crossed now ; ) Watching that chart daily through; hoping this is not a sideways trend...
I hope it is the start....but the jump wasn't on great volume
Tricha, you better be good or else Phaedrus will do a graph of your averaging down in AZA!
Your adulation is misplaced, Tricha. I am quite good, but "great" is a bit over the top, I think.
You're not paying attention here Tricha. I have already pointed out that indicators and chart patterns have their "Buy" signals triggered by price rises. Can you not see that, by definition, such a system can NEVER EVER buy at the bottom?
Shrewdy is intelligent enough to use ALL methods at his disposal. In his own words "I appreciate your charts and TA is a very good suppliment to FA..." This sensible, balanced approach is something you could perhaps aspire to.
The past is historical FACT not bull.... Those that ignore the past are doomed to repeat it. In any case, signals are triggered by current price action. You simply can't get any more up to date than that.
Huh? The price of Oil is not a fact? I can't follow your reasoning.
Tricha, for me, CUE is just another stock to be traded. I lack your passionate convictions and belief systems - and see this as an advantage. I have no emotional ties to this or any other stock so I can view CUE objectively and dispassionately. You can't.
I still find it hard to believe that I have attracted such heated criticism for posting CUE BUY signals. Imagine the outrage, the personal abuse, the gigantic fonts and the garish colours should I post a SELL signal!!!!
I don't know what your real problem is, Tricha, but I am certain of one thing - it will take more than a couple of Panadol to fix it!
Phaedrus would do WELL to disclose what he has bought, he actually said AZA was a bottom at 92 cents, he probably went and bought some himself, but who knows, he has never lost a trade.
But on the bright side, flogged this of sharescene, watch this bonus space. Peter Strachan from stockanalysis puts a value of 80 cents a share to CUE if it strikes.
The bonus factor is CUE will go off regardless and thanks to Shrewds fundamental analysis, I bought lots and was lucky to double dip @ 21 cents.
Australia’s MEO on target at Zeus-1
By Upstream staff
Australian minnow MEO is on track to drill the Zeus-1 well targeting a multi-trillion cubic feet play off Western Australia around the end of October after completing a geographic sweep of the site prior to the semi-submersible drilling unit arriving.
The shoot in permit WA-361-P in the offshore north Carnarvon basin was recently completed by Fugro and confirmed the absence of anomalous features on the sea floor, identified the seabed terrain and provided sufficient shallow geological data to enable the anchorage of the semi-submersible drilling unit Songa Venus.
The probe is targeting a multi-trillion cubic feet gas prospect next to fields developed by the North West Shelf Venture gas project.
The Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts has advised this week that the drilling of Zeus-1 will not be considered a controlled action under the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act.
Songa Offshore, the operator of the Songa Venus drilling rig, has confirmed the unit is on track in its current work programme and sees the vessel expected to start set-up and drilling of Zeus-1 around 31 October.
Meo holds a 60% stake in the permit through its North West Shelf Exploration unit, while Cue and Gascorp Australia hold 20% each.
we should get the results of cobra wirelines this morning. it will be interesting to see how the market reacts. limited downside on a duster would be a very positive sign.
although, given the problem with this drill, who would be surprised if we have further delays...?
fingers crossed, then, we get a result. and pull out the rabbits feet in the hope of commercial discovery.
-j
I suspect the recent price appreciation is in lead up to the results you speak of. So a non comercial result will push the SP back some.[/QUOTE]
yip, that's a fair assumption but i'd temper it with the fact that the sp ran to 30c (seemingly) on anticipation of the cobra drill and has fallen well back since. also, how many people have held off buying - waiting on the result? a few factors to consider, but if there hasn't been any more delays (surely there wont be more delays...) all will be revealed this morning, perhaps.
for what it's worth, i'm expecting oil/gas shows that wont be commercial. that's my gut call. i will obviously be most happy if i'm wrong. either way i think cobra is a sideline to the (first) main event - maari. if there's a small retrace on news that cobra is non-commercial, i expect it to be little more than a blip in the short/medium term.
-j
and still we wait... hell, i'm of a mind to pop over there and peer down the hole myself. surely since thursday has been enough to time to run the logs. anybody have a take on the delay?
-j
WELL jdg u better pop over and peer down that dam hole, it's ......... :confused:
O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D(Incorporated in Papua New Guinea)
ARBN – 055 079 868A U S T R A L I A N R E G I S T E R E D O F F I C ELevel 27 Angel Place, 123 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000 Australia.
GPO Box 2442, Sydney NSW 2001 Australia.
Telephone: (61) 2 8207 8400 Facsimile: (61) 2 8207 8500DRILLING REPORT – 26 August 2008
WELL NAME: Cobra 1A ST3, PNGOil Search reports that at 0600 on 26 August, the Cobra 1A ST3 well was
at a total depth of 2,836 metres and preparations were underway to
conduct a closed chamber Drill Stem Test (DST) over the upper Hedinia
sandstone.
Since the last drilling report, a comprehensive formation evaluation
programme has been completed over the upper Hedinia sandstone
interval. While taking pressure measurements, a sample of formation
fluid was recovered from near the top of the Hedinia Sandstone, which
contains a significant proportion of oil. Further pressure measurements,
however, have been unsuccessful in defining fluid gradients in the
reservoir and the Joint Venture have agreed to carry out a DST of the
interval with the objective of confirming fluid type and reservoir quality.
The test will take place later this week
Cobra 1A ST3 is located in PPL 190 and lies 13 kilometres east of the SE
Gobe oil field and 7 kilometres east of the Bilip oil discovery.
The participants in Cobra 1A ST3 are:
Oil Search Limited 62.556%
Murray Petroleum Co. Ltd 26.497%
Cue PNG Oil Company 10.947%Total 100%PETER BOTTEN, CBE
Managing Director
For further information please contact:
Ann Diamant
Investor Relations Manager
Tel: +612 8207 8440
Mob: +61 407 483 128
WELL u never know Strat, after reading Peter Strachans report today, it all makes sense.
There are people in the market that have to sell their shares at any cost, debt is killing them. U could very WELL get lucky in this crazy market.
In the big picture of CUE, this is just a side issue, a lot more to CUE than this little hole.
If this is good oil, we will gladly accept the bonus.
To be honest Im not really up to speed on the program but I think the nest big one for CUE is what? over a month away? Ive been pretty much sitting on my hands for 2 months now and I think there will be more grief from the good ol USA. Still plenty of Fundamentally great stocks taking a hiding so Im keeping my hand off the buy button for a while yet though I have been tempted.
CUE under 20c?:eek:
You never know eh? :D
haha,
I would have been absolutely convinced if you hadnt just sold out your holding :p
Seriously though it just seems unsafe to do the sit and wait thing on any stock in this market. Would rather pay a bit more catching the ride up than be waiting around for it to begin in this climate.
i've never liked snakes. has there ever before been a drill this frustrating? cobra really is a mystery. i'm no longer thinking of popping over and have a peep down the hole, i think i'll send deb webber.
-j
Strachan has put 11c value on the spike(y) [T-38] coming when Beach join in the drilling in bass strait which looks like a spud date 8 weeks from now ........Total leverage = 50%
note the release this morning regarding more acreage off the Taranaki coast. CUE's forward planning is impeccable. if cobra comes up dry and the sp drops i'll take the opportunity for a quick trade in the lead up to zeus.
-j
I woudnt wait too long , you might be surprised . Everyone is fooling themselves by not being on board atm save a cent maybe , but you might miss out all together . Todd Petro and Singapore Petroleum are talking ?????
I wouldn't miss this ride for the world ELYOB, it's got excitement written all over it, it's going to be one hell of a rollercoaster.
I better go and buy some sea sick pills, while I'm sailing on it and if u r at the station watching the sky float past, :rolleyes: bon voyage
I guess it's like sailing into unchartered waters. I guess it's why I like it, u have cash coming in with Oyong, cash coming soon from Marri.
Then the wild cards
* Cobra
* Zeus
* Manaia
* and many others.
PROJECTS
Cue has maintained a consistent regional focus in its oil and gas operations. We currently have projects in Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand.
http://www.cuenrg.com/images/stories...tsjune2008.jpg
Sorry to rabbit on in my last post, heres the real story, so much for so little.;)
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=304625
Looks like I'll be shouting Shrewd at the next share meeting in CHCH.