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New 52 week high! Clap clap clap
Just something I was wondering about, and to quantify, I have done no research. All these retirement village operators have been building units through the years of the leaky building fiasco. Has there ever been any indications of possible issues at any of the villages? They look like fairly traditional builds but it was just a random thought. Apologies if this has previously been addressed or is inappropriate.
Yea i just bought in at 2.74. I sold out at 2.59 just before the run this last week for ryman. realised this has higher returns so back to this. silly me should of just stayed. living up to my username
In at $2.66 a few days ago. Already up to $2.80 today. I must admit that being part of the sharetader community has lifted my strike rate.
Reading through the recent posts here it seems to me that Summerset has become:
the NEW SHARETRADER SPECULATIVE SHARE :scared:.
Best wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: Own Some SUM
Disc: please do not be offended by this post unless you really want to be.
All I can say is ...thank goodness that folk on this site have never never ever been found to have been found "ramping"...a particular share.
Now if we could discuss CEN.......
Is this better than expected? Seems to me like they are down 1 unit on 2012 and less than the 95 sparky suggested. The new unit sales are well up though.
FY13 SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS
1Q13
ActualNew sales 64 Resales 25 Total 89
FY12 SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS
1Q12
Actual2Q12
Actual3Q12
Actual4Q12
ActualFY12
ActualNew sales 38 45 41 43 167 Resales 52 36 45 31 164 Total 90 81 86 74 331
Also depends where these units were sold. The increase in Auckland property prices (10.4%) is much greater than those in Dunedin (3.7%) http://www.qv.co.nz/onlinereports/propertyvaluemap.htm.
Disclaimer: I am not feeling any less positive about this company, just trying to understand how to analyse the announcement by playing devils advocate.
Best not to get to hung up on an individual quarters figures, look for the underlying trends.
Remember that the sale of a new unit is a lot better for the operational cash flow than a resale.
As long as the number of new units sold keeps going up then things are OK.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
So as the Summerset sets at $2.84 it is just 2 millidollars below my current present value calculation for the same.
See markets are sometimes right :).
I have a value of $3.27 for a years time and a quick look at ft.com reveals that brokers consensus varies from $2.60 to $3.8.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
More "That's going straight to the pool room".
bw
PT
Yay we made it to $3! Doing a little dance.
I became a holder in this puppy just before the recent rise, so that was a nice start! I note there hasn't been very much discussion on the DRP, however would anyone care to air their thoughts?
On board with this company recently. They have some good locations in the North Island and are a good complement to a holding in Ryman in my opinion. Let the growth continue:t_up:
Wow what a dry up
Yep shortland streets my fave too :-)
Well that was short lived :t_down:
Haha firing blanks! Shaken out a few more sellers though
Yep sure is a keeper for me
Nice we PR , sorry cant put link up but check it out holders :-D
Very positive speach.Positive outlook.
And the market likes it too as we wander up to $3.09.
Sum responds to Rym ! Boom
"With New Zealand's older population set to double over the next twenty years, the market for retirement and aged care facilities is likely to expand substantially. In our view, Summerset is well positioned to participate in this growth."
Pretty simple really!
New high for SUM. $3.14...I mean $3.15. I am a little suspicious of all the wins I am having recently. Partly its because I am doing more research and I am certainly enjoying the Sharetrader community, but I get jittery at all the good sharemarket news lately. Feels a bit euphoric. Maybe I am just on the right threads?
$3.20 - there must have been quite an impressive spread of light refreshments at the AGM yesterday to stimulate this price action. Did anyone attend?
Has anyone been buying recently? I thought about buying some at $3 a few days ago... but $3.23 now, this is ridiculous!
Along with the AGM, I think the share price is responding to the recent RYM surge. One goes up, the other one follows.
There certainly seems to be a focus on this industry in the media at the moment, along with all the hype about our aging population and pension concerns. Add that to the commentary about the next decade being the golden age for these companies. Seems like a good recipe for the SP to grow on...
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...ng-to-increase
There you are good sir.
I doubled my SUM holding at $2.97 as I got sick of looking for an entry point to RYM.
I suspect with RYM at $6 I would be looking at shifting some of my holding to SUM or MET, but don't take that as advice as I'm notoriously bad at putting 'stop-profits' in place.
I added to my position in this stock yesterday at $3.07 after reading the very positive comments made by the Exec's at the AGM. In my view its almost certain the stock price will double in my initial time horizon of five years, probably quite a bit earlier than that.
Somebody has put in a sell order at $200. Are one of you guys taking the piss?
"American scientists have homed in on the part of the brain that controls ageing, managing to keep mice alive and active for up to 100 days past their normal lifespan."
http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/86233...fespan-control
Good news for this sector.
Capital outlay on properties for aging mice will be pretty minimal as well ;).
I had a dream we hit $3.50 by next week.... but I also dreamt I was going out with Kim Kardashian .... I dont know what this means im so confused I can feel my legs...
Quite a hard stock to put a fair value on.
They have a good management team in place to leverage the geriatric tsunami, but equally other players could enter the industry - or some of the small players ramp up.
Would your intrinsic value change from year to year with growth rates achieved Sparky?
I've been thinking that some sort of index that reflects this sector could be interesting to compare with the population over 65. Maybe RYM, MET and SUM weighted by market cap and normalised to the start of 2013. That seems a bit crude to me, anybody got any other thoughts? The idea would be to be able to use the forecasted population increase to estimate the growth of this sector.
An interesting idea.
Most (all) of the earnings for SUM are from increases in investment property value.
Existing properties you can only revalue by a few percent per year along with the fee increases.
The real room for gain is on the difference between the booked build cost of a new unit and the value as a fee stream.
As far as I can see SUM need to both up the build rate (as announced) and get the cost of build down (currently they are claiming 12% gain on new units).
Should they ever get to make real cash profits on care or anything that would be an added bonus of course.
I can foresee wild swings in profit growth, but I would be dubious of a 30% pa average.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
2012 Annual Report, Page 9: [electronic version, starting at the 507th kilobyte]
"An increased development margin of 12% from 6.2% in 2011 was a significant driver of underlying profit".
But we (U & I) hope for better going forward, don't we?
and the
"Summerset is confident of achieving its medium term target of 300 retirement units per annum from 2015, an 18% annual growth on its current portfolio"
will be less than 18% of the 2015 portfolio.
I would wind your expectations down a notch, then they can over-deliver for you.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Quote:
Mrs Barlow reiterated that the company is not seeking to raise any new
capital through the listing
Excuse my ignorance - if they are not going to raise capital where do the shares for the ASX float come from? Do they buy back from NZX then re-list them as ASX?
It is not a float. It is a listing. It means all current Australian holders can trade the shares on the ASX.
Xero did the same thing - look at what happened to its shareprice following the ASX listing.
I am not sure how the shares get from the NZX to the ASX but put simply it requires a current holder to sell for someone on the ASX to buy. Therefore, supply is the same but demand has increased - anyone with ECO101 will know the result.
Makes sense - thanks for the info - and thanks for spiking the punch moosie.
SUM looking to list on the ASX. I thought this would have had a positive impact on the SP. I notice that a lot of sellers come along occasionally and the chart flattens for a while. Then the sellers dry up and the chart moves north again.
Has anyone run the fundamentals on SUM vs MET? I have RYM but feel now is the time to diversify a bit more, that one appearing over-valued at this time. Is this case for SUM and MET which have seen similar % gains in the past month?
Pretty big resistance at 3.20, as soon as it looks like its gone another big parcel appears!
Yeah i was thinking the same thing yesterday , 1.5 million traded so far today + yesterday, and the price has only fluctuate between 3.19 - 3.20 , some big seller out their off loading !
Yeap the ASX listing looks a little "try hard" to me. They should spend their energy just getting on with running their business and leave the cost of an Australian listing to a company that will materially benifet from it.
Interesting that the big seller was ready and waiting to pounce on the publicity this news created.
Ths looks set to track sideways for a while until Quadrant's sale is finalised.
Bit of sideways consolidation is this sector wouldn't be a bad thing in my opinion.
yeah, i've been stocking up on SUM this morning, and am closely watching RYM
Yep, I dumped this morning at $3.10. Wouldn't mind some more diclosure around Quadrant before getting back in.
Ouch, this is starting to look ugly!
I saw Ryman down a similar amount, was there some news that I missed?
Sold at 3.15 in past few days, will maybe Rebuy if goes sub $3 again
Glad I haven't missed any news, thought something came out since Ryman is also performing badly today.
turmeric - true, the reason why I think it is ugly is because while SUM don't perform as well as Ryman in the last few months, but the sell-off seems to be just as bad as Ryman when it happens.
Who has bets on bottoms? 295 I say. :p
I did some soul searching on this stock recently after getting a double reading on my bullsh#t meter.
It first went off when they talked up the Aussie listing, (really getting too big for their boots in my opinion and just wasting money), if any company should list in Australia its Ryman for obvious reasons.
My other concern is the apparent manuipulation of the stock. I say apparent because it would appear as soon as the stock got to $3.20 or slightly above there was what appeared to be a carefully organised and consistent selling campaign by one or more major holders. They never put too much scrip up at once on the depth side but it was always there in reasonable volume and as soon as it was taekn out there was plenty more supply. This was especially apparent on the day the planned Aussie listing was announced.
We also have the situation where the private equity holder is well known to want to sell their stake.
I love this sector, and on the face of it this is a very attractive growth stock with an extremly good land bank in the fastest growth area of N.Z. (namely Auckland), but this is not the proven performer in the retirement sector and given the stock overhang I've decided to watch from the sidelines on this one for a while. I continue to hold Ryman's shares notwithstanding the huge increase in price over the last few months.
Yes, I'd echo those sentiments Roger and Moosie. I suspect it hasn't just been at $3.20 though - you can see the chart regularly plateauing over the last month or two. I noticed the sell bundles were coming through in 10,000 share lots. When they dried up, the minnows then pushed the price north.
It's interesting as there have been some reasonable buyers as well. No SSH's triggered so I guess we'll never know what has been going on.
Maybe we're all just paranoid and should get back to looking at the fundamentals of the stock
Agreed Sparky, nonetheless I guess the way the selling was carefully orchestrated is what triggered me to sell most of my holding at $3.20 too, and cleared the rest out just over $3.00. More than happy to have another look when the private equity guys are done and dusted and it'll be sure to be placed at a discount.Quote:
The major holder is a substantial security holder, so would need to declare if they are selling down. They still have more than 5%, and they wouldn't be selling piecemeal, since they'd be needing to declare every little movement. That's the last thing they would want.
Being highly paranoid is a pre-requsite to sucessful investing isn't it :DQuote:
Maybe we're all just paranoid and should get back to looking at the fundamentals of the stock
Assume a holder of 70% who has issued an announcement to that effect.
They start selling 0.1% every day.
On the tenth day they have 69% and must issue a notice (within a couple of days?) to say they now have 69%.
Next they sell 5% in one go, so a notice gees out saying we have 64%.
Back to the 0.1% a day and the next notice will be ten days later when they get to 63%.
Same applies when buying, or buying and selling. When your holding has changed by 1% since last time you let everyone know.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Dear glasszon...its a bit late ...but please never ever ever ever expect a SP to continue to appreciate for ever...after 30 plus years...I have learnt some lessons...i.e. lost dosh believing that a companies SP can rise for ever....please take head of postings of very wise folk who post charts et al...HOOP and his ilk (since Phaedrus has gone AWOL)...are a treasure.Cheers
Any wild prediction as to what the announcement is?
Hopefully they take the weekend for a good book-build and sell the lot. I think the company will be better off with new shareholders who have a long term vision for the future of the retirement industry in New Zealand.
EDIT: I was obviously far to slow to post and was clearly wrong. Please ignore:
[Quadrant maybe though I would expect they would wait for the ASX listing first so maybe an announcement/timetable for ASX listing.
An acquisition by them of a small player is another option though no need for market halt unless they need to raise cash for the purchase.]
Is it the market price that may dip after the halt or do current shareholders have access to a potentially discounted rate? Would the general consensus be that SUM are a good long term investment which should only continue its trend?
They will be offered at a discount ($2.90 suggested above) so some buyers in the placement may sell for a quick profit.
It will be a placement to institutions and through customers of the brokerage firm. Existing shareholders will not get the opportunity.
It is a good company but whether it is already fairly prices in the $2.90 - $3 range is the question. I was looking at it when it was $2.60 but sat on it too long and they shot up to $3.20. THis pull back has me interested.
Does anyone know which brokers are placing shares in the Quadrant selldown?
Still plenty of private equity stock effectivly over-hanging the market and major sellers at $3.20, with limited near term prospects of significant price appreciation I see no reason to hurry back into owning this stock.
Best of Breed runs their operation far more professionally in more ways than one !
Little doubt Quadrant would have sold more if there was more demand at $2.90 so there's your boat anchor attached to the share price right there, in my opinion. That and this stock is on twice the historic PE as Ryman and Ryman are talking up rapid expansion in Australia whereas these guys are just "talking" and doing more of that than I feel entirely comfortable with to be honest. As you say, different views, that's what makes a market.
Happy to chew popcorn on the sideline for a while :)
Roger,
Just interested in where you got the fact from which says that SUM is twice the historical PE of RYM?
I think that I disagree $2.90 sets the ceiling...as I understand it, a discount is necessary for a large sale. We've seen with SUM (the first time), SKT, and TME (I think) as examples where a large seller settles for a discount only for the market price to rebound beyond the share price just before the trade halt.
I would also interpret Quadrant keeping a large chunk differently. Rather than a failure to flick the lot, I suspect they want to take some profit off the table but hang on for the ride in case the ride continues.
The share prices in the cases you mentioned above rebounded in a bull market, before a large amount was sucked out of the market by MRP. The fact that Quadrant still has shares and has shown they are a willing seller will keep a cap on the s/p in this stock my opinion. ( they have previously already taken profit )
market.ft.com
Some Analysts value SUM high end as $3.80 and RYM high end as $6.
Price / Historical EPS, not that historical EPS has much to do with it in SUM's case as they're growing quickly.
To be clear, I didn't suggest $2.90 is a ceiling, but I feel their stake and their stated intention to quit may have a dampening effect on the share price in the future until its cleared out.
FWIW, Macquaries have a price target of $3.90, assuming a build rate of 225 units pa, 75% of the company's target.
Indeed!
I did a double take on the $3.90 and had to check my eyes/screen/sobriety.