A majestic flight north by the Red Admiral.........action has now entered
the red box with a present high of 1.1768 (15.45hrs)
GTA - arco
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A majestic flight north by the Red Admiral.........action has now entered
the red box with a present high of 1.1768 (15.45hrs)
GTA - arco
Hit a year high (or low depending on which way you look at it) today, looks like this one may have a bit further to run.
AUD/NZD on the 5 min candle since 0600 today NZ Time theres a bullish gartly just completed.
And a bullish one on the NZD/USD
twas a hard road but think it will pay off.... the momentum gradually waned and now the NZD falls and the AUD/NZd rises.
Bit of resistance overhead to the long from a
swathe of moving averages. Therefore possible
straddle tactic IMO until this resolves -
Go long 1.1481 - potential target 600-900 pips
SAR/or stop @ 1.1331
RR 4:1
2/2 Go long 1.1481 - potential target 600-900 pips
Just for the record, I got the direction right but
unfortunately the driver had the map upside
until he found a compass :confused:
Hi all
Good call on the last post arco. :cool:
My short order got filled over night at 1.24
currently +75
Tight stop as I think it may have another go at 1.246 but hopefully get a retrace first
Cheers
Slam
Thanks Slam.....
Must admit I had a little help from a large green butterfly (or 2) :D
Ya never know there might be a bit more fuel left....
rgds - arco
yeh Max said .73 so thats um 1/.73 = 1.36
from a fundy point of view it would appear our economy is turning down a lot faster than theirs.
Closed short for +62 as it has stalled.
Trade was contradicting my others so wasn't that comfortable with it.
May still go lower but a bird in the hand and that.
Thanks for the comments guys
Cheers
Slam
The big green shows a max of around 1.3700 at 1618
and the Qstick is still looking perky.
I see a perfect bullish gartley since May 15th
Away from my computer but trying to see a butterfly forming in this?...
Thankfully I bought in real money a big chunk of my AUD for the holiday yesterday and my trading balance (bought as a hedge ) is now back to being up 143
... still would prefer it to go down tho with the inevitable visa card expenses
oh well havent been burned completely by this reaction to the RBNZ announcement today.
arco is away until further notice gallivanting the world. seems like the forex thing to do at the moment. with DA gone , and me away from next Friday (tho only for 8 days)
So its really important that everyone posts even if you dont have a view - I dont wanna be a lone voice. :(
AUD/NZD onward and upward it seems after a little rest at the new levels. Not looking forward to the visa bill....
Hi Db/Peat,
Heres aud/nzd technically a crab but commonly a butterfly!
yeh its been an amazing run and I'm not at all sure its over... tho i have no more open positions.
I closed some at over +500 and I missed most of it! it was certainly a lesson in letting your profits run, i dont think I would've held that long except for the fact I was hedging known costs in AUD, so goes to show if you're not keen to bank profits too quickly how things can add up.
Peat,
think you might be right regard its not over yet,yeah let your profits run,think i should do more of that,500 pips thats great!
cheers
roddy
apologies on my CHART post 218, 121 is not a fib number should be 127,which corresponds to a slightly higher1.235 on AUD/NZD.
CHEERS
RODDY
http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/4715/audnzdpx9.jpg
[URL=http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=136&i=audnzdpx9.jpg][IMG]
AUD/NZD on the weekly chart is starting to look a little high risk for buyers.... The value index is going lower and diverging from the price trend.. that only happens for so long before a corrective phase and the seasonals are suggesting a few weeks of bearishness.
TT...
Hi TT
how is it going,could you give me an idea what the 2 indicators you have posted measure i have never come across them before
cheers roddy
Hi tech trader
Could you tell me where you source your charts from
I have tried to get LW sentiment and/or Cot commercial index but have been unable to get them from a provider that I tried
thanks
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture...5&pictureid=48
Head and shoulders pattern with a trendline break. What do you lot think.
I'm gonna try entering with those trailing sell stops tonight if things look good. Need a decent break below the 1.2125 before I enter.
Supports at 1.2042, 1.1755, and if we're lucky 1.11 somewhere.
hi guys , momentum plays a big part in the ability to collect the pips.
you are probably focusing on the one cross which over the last few weeks has not moved at all.
i think the way the markets are moving in blocks at the moment , its unlikely for the aud and nzd dollar to take separate paths.
its a usd v commodity story
but a set up is a set up .
Seems you were right about the RBNZ rate decision. Got stopped out of my position for a loss, but no where near what it would have been had I held.
hi all im no currecy trader but nz/aud at 88c its been a while since its been this high could this be seen as a good time to buy aud or is it likley that the aud will keep on weakening
This is nothing more than a 'soft' vs 'hard' commodity trade.
Probably hedge funds unwinding old positions to lock in their profits, or building positions the other way with a view to it going further
NZD AUD is at 90 cents!!!!
Surely the NZD is over valued against the AUD on fundamentals.
Im am realy interested to hear what you currency guys predict on the NZD V AUD over the coming months.
Just that im cashed up have an employment offer in Ausi.
Unsure wether i should jump at low to mid .90 cent range or can this situation continue to strengthen the kiwi out to high .90's and beyond ?
hi ynot, cashed up sounds a great place to be.
im sorry but all my charts are audnzd so you got look upside down.
audnzd has been pretty volatile at the moment which is a little unusual for this cross.
possibilty has broken a triangle and may run to what has been a major resistance level in the past around 1.05.
if it broke 1.05 then may well move lower.
big resistance at 115 to watch to the upside.
so i think i would hang on at the moment and see which way it breaks and expect big daily swings as volatilty is pretty high.
...exchanged some NZ$ into A$ and started to dip into equities (yes, commodities included) hoping at least, to make a start taking advantage of companies showing good fundamental values (some miners sitting on piles of cash 50% and more compared to their market value right now), paying dividend yields based on earning cycle 07/08 higher than bank rates...and who wants to have money in the bloody banks anyway???
...as I have said long ago, if the whole show goes down the drain, your cash is trash (always has been more or less) and so will be anything else, apart from precious metals; so what am I waiting for I thought to myself and made a start;
...as far as NZD/AUD gap is concerned, it's not sustainable longer term
Kind Regards
Bumped for ollie
I actually have a very small short position in this cross but its quite negative - if it goes much higher I will be stopped.
This morning I was seeing a bit of a head and shoulders forming though so was ever hopeful the position might come right. ie Aud go down against Kiwi
I also have some cash left over from the last trip over there which I havent changed so a bit of a bob each way hahah
Ollie often in these situations its best to do the transfer in tranches eg 1/3rd now 1/3rd in a while etc....
At 1.27 Historically you wouldnt be doing too badly to bring money here to NZ right now remember it was 1.06 not that long ago. (I know these numbers are the wrong way round for you - but reciprocals are pretty easy maths)
Thanks peat, good idea to split the total into 3 or 4 lots,sort of dollar cost averaging . I remember sending this money to OZ with the rate at .9500 , Nov 05. so its all uphill. cheers
this is the head and shoulders I see on the hourly
which if correct would suggest theres 2-300 pips down if it can convincingly break 1.2750. But it hasnt yet.
well it tempted me in but didnt perform - taken a hit here....
kiwi strength a bit :eek: but good for this short position. still a long way to 1.15 tho.
Australian jobs data due out today (1.30pm, New Zealand time)
Could somebody recommend a site where I can get 12 month NZ.AUD charts please. :D
Cheers
D
dragonz
here is one
http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/Sto...REX/NZDAUD.htm
Thanks Lotto:)
Herald Article today
Currency: Kiwi and aussie at 'crucial' juncture
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10581293
i've got a failing butterfly (in yellow) on my chart. Havent traded it.
Looks weak to me but just below 1.23 it will have done a bullish gartley (green)
What do you think arco?
http://i36.tinypic.com/2qkkxht.gif
http://i34.tinypic.com/2uprck0.gif
Stop to break even
at the end of the butterfly formation the yello line formed from just above the B point proved instrumental and once it broke on the 7th provided good support the next day. I got in a bit late and is probably a bit overcooked on the hourly at +190 so I've closed out here.
Looks like Kumo resistance
http://i36.tinypic.com/23jn1a9.gif
.
Potentially a short term short. No position at the moment. Kumo has currently resisted an attempt to penetrate, together with Chikou against the plot.
http://i34.tinypic.com/2jcir1g.gif
Watching now for a potential turn inside the Kumo
http://i35.tinypic.com/2lliomg.gif
completed a bearish gartley overnite at your blue box area arco
Morning Peat
Yes, starting to look interesting.
As the 'B' leg almost reached 618 I tend to be a bit cautious in
case there is an extension of the 'D' leg (forming BF).
http://i35.tinypic.com/20f2eeu.gif
I see the nzd weakening against the aud, do you see this trend continuing ? thanks
Hi there - I don't trade currency, but am looking to buy some more shares is aussie. Not sure which ones yet, so was thinking of locking in current NZD/AUD rates for now. Where's the best place for some short-medium term analysis on NZD/Aud?
Not great news for exporters to Aust if this analysis is anywhere right. But good for next winter's holiday in Queensland!
http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?ty...D819805891635B
Several respected commentators , namely Arco and Max McKegg have commented on the future direction of AUD/NZD and that the breakout above the 1.30 area is significant. I always find it difficult to trade as it is quite volatile and moves a lot without actually breaking the underlying trend. I've seen this gartley pop up now so will be adding to my existing position.
I certainly glad I invest my funds into the ASX many years agos for AUD 1.07c brought some back the other day AUD 1.29
some event has kicked the trade into +ve territory pretty quickly ;+)
Hi Peat
530 pips and counting
Yes, I think we did quite well for longer term holders with a run up of around 410 pips on the long trade - the yellow box target was just touched. Over the last 3 days I've been suggesting a retrace, and additionally last nights short term chart also gave members up to 120 pips
http://i43.tinypic.com/ve82l3.gif
Attachment 2579
I had almost convinced myself that butterflies were caused by the machinations of those who manage/manipulate currencies. But could someone have been working on AUD/NZD for 20years? To me it seems likely that this is a butterfly and it will complete but what will the target be? Probably one for ARCO. Where will it go from there? Probably what John Key is working on?
Hi DA
I was long from 1.275 area i am now thinking its ripe for a short with the prospects of RBA possibly lowering AND THE D leg 1.161 seems to be acting as resistance
Attachment 3677
Hey Rod, nice trade , funny you should bring this cross up as i have been doing some trading on it over the last couple of months.
its a nice technical cross respecting technical patterns nicely.
the harmonic pattern you have drawn actually works a little better if you view it as a bearish crab even though the 1.61 reversal level is the same.
I can give you some links if you want more info on it.
features are:
reversal zone is 1.61 XA , XA 88.6 , BC 2.61
this has been a nice example and have had some good trades out of it.
personally i think were close to a short but i would like to see one more run to challenge 1.32 , it may have done its dash but the low risk short entry is around 1.32 area. looks like a triangle on h1 which may mean a little further to go
maybe something like this rod but i wouldnt trade it , it doesnt look like a top and we havent got divergence on indicators yet.
im going to wait and follow action a little before pulling he trigger.
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x...99/NZDH1-4.jpg
Hi DA yes if it gets to 1.32 would be good its also a major support resistance level going back early 2010 apart from its .618 level
i kind of lump anything which isnt a gartley into a butterfly irrespective whether its a bat or crab etc a bit of laziness on my part!
thanks for the charts , i will wait for the top to develop and hopefully divergence
cheers
roddy
wow look at the yen crosses , looks like BOJ has been busy.
DA yes i was tempted to chase it but thought better of it, probably because i havent got a reasonable expectancy day trading system !also surprised just how much aud and nzd have moved against the buck. looking at my daily charts the last daily spike jumped from similar levels to 80 but on that occasion the BOJ may of had nothing to do with it
from what i understand when they intervene its just a straight US treasury purchase as they flood the market buying us dollars and therefore you see the big spike in all usd crosses.
man they must be talking massive amounts of capital to move the markets like that.
the fun you could have trading amounts like , dont tell me someone doesnt fire off a few options with that kind of information.
Yeah how many USD does it take to make a move like that happen. I imagine a few SL triggers got taken out.
"the fun you could have trading amounts like , dont tell me someone doesnt fire off a few options with that kind of information.[/QUOTE]"
Perhaps DA maybe someone at MF Global who are now under investigation for hundreds of millions in missing client money, per NYT may be able to enlighten us
anyone going to have a flutter on the RBA. should be more fun than the melbourne cup.
if its close to 1.0580 will short with a stop at 1.0630 pre announcement.
yes although a bit of an anti climax picked up 52 pips also had a short on aud/nzd if it broke support 1.2950
1.05410 1.04881
hi rod , ive been bulding a short position from around 1.07 , i feel there should be more downside to come as european and us markets react to the rate cut.
i was looking to add before the rba anouncement but no joy.
Hi DA theres a nice Evening Star on the daily which no doubt you have spotted good call on picking the top!!!!!
i also watching an ascending triangle on the hrly CAD/USD at parity looking to enter if breaks upward
hi rod , i have one eye on the sp500 , its sitting on a key support pivot at 1240 if we are going to rally it could be from here, if 1240 fails then we should see more risk liquidation which will fuel nzd and aud shorts.
Hi DA you were right about 1240 level on SP , I exited the cad trade with 88 pips as i saw shooting star on the 15 min
im happy to close aud shorts, 350 + 320+ and nzd 95 +,
should see in the next couple of sessions if the bear is back on or the bulls are ready to run from here.
really reading conflicting signs on longer term direction so i will stay neutral.
sp 500 key level 1225 to keep the impulse move alive.
Great trading DA now i know why i have a second job and you are a full time trader
if i may ask when you entered short was it an elliot signal or gut feeling
hi rod ,the rally from 93+ low in the aud looks corrective in its wave pattern but has gone further than it should and with gusto.
the recent top had an ending diagonal pattern and felt like a blow off reaction top in its final throws.
it never really felt like all the worlds problems had diasppeared and therefore as the aud stalled around 1.07 it seemed risk was cheap at that level.
i think the direction at the moment is difficult to call with certainty so will look to sell rallies in aud and nzd.
Going to try a short rod on audusd and nzdusd
looks like its topping out at 10420 for aud will take a short from here with open target and 79.70 for kiwi.
Hi DA
nice call its been a profitable night for you i was out last night and didnt get to see your post nor any chart went to bed.
i am wondering why the kiwi is weaker than the Aussie
i googled diagonal pattern i have never had any experience of it before in this instance on the high of AUD it worked a treat
hi rod , we are getting close to a short in the audnzd cross as this should be the final push higher .
i have no idea why its happening other than we were warned about it happening through aud nzd chart patterns.
personally it feels from a fundy perspective the kiwi should be stronger but thats why i only trade the charts. weird !
Yikes.
I see NZ unemployment jumped up to 6.6% market was expecting it to fall
Imagine how bad it would have been without the RWC…
NZD will head south for a while I think
AUD/NZD pushing higher as you said DA.
shorts moving along nicely audusd, 200 + 180 + and nzdusd 180+ , i still feel there is more to come so still open.
maybe rod there is a high in on aud nzd , got the divergence on all time frames , 5 wave pattern complete with good wave relationship .
we need to find a short entry against 1.3140 top with back up stop the 61.8 retracement at 1.32.
Hi DA i can see on daily RSI diverenge, so i will keep an eye out for another spike up.some traders trade the breakout
do you ever trade the breakout at lower levels 1.2950 or do you prfer to look for an entry as close as possible to PRZ
hi roddy , its started to look positive for an short entry with a stop 131.50 this gives a favourable risk reward even if we were to make a market entry trade.
best entry is to look for a 50% ( 131.07 ) to 61.8% (131.16 ) retracement of the first wave down , the true first wave is from 131.43 to 130.72 so you have to position your fib retracement chart
on these points and you will see the price will respect the retracement levels better.
the first wave can retrace up to 100 % ( double top ) without screwing up the count.
im going to start scaling short from here.
what i like about elliot wave is risk is so clearly defined so you can put some ridiculously big trades on as your only risking a few pips on a tight stop.
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x...99/nzdm1-1.jpg
closed shorts aud 200 + 200 + and nzd 180+
i have a pattern on the kiwi to go long from here 78.22 with a stop 77.90, may be pushing my luck here but will give it a crack.
thats me done untill monday good luck guys
Hi DA great trading i have short on aud/nzd see how it goes and thanks for the advice
have a great weekend
hi rod , long trades overnight worked well long nzd usd 140+ 120+ and aud 160+.
it was another ending diagonal that helped me nail the kiwi for risk of only 32 pips.
i have a nice looking short setting up soon but not yet on light crude clc1
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x...99/nzdm1-2.jpg
Hi DA yes your longs worked well ,the ending diagonal seems to be quite a reliable pattern, from your experience do they occur much on a larger time frame.
i am still in aud/nzd as i have stop where you suggested and so far the chart is respecting 1.3145 level
hi rod , yes i think we will have to be patient with audnzd but stop seems to be well positioned.
all elliot wave priciples work on all time frames from the m1 upwards.
i think the dollar crosses are the place to be at the moment , volatilty pretty good
im short kiwi 79.55 stop 79 .90 , it seems the aud goes down qiucker than the kiwi against the dollar so should see the audnzd heading in the desired direction.
watch 1261 and 1240 pivots for risk direction on sp500, seems we have had a failure at 1261 so will probably head back down.
yet another ending diagonal in fifth wave position , this ones ok but not as pretty as the one before.
we have now got 5 waves down and 3 waves up with good wave relationships , i have put another short on at 79.45 as well as 79.50
risk is very well defined at the top of the pattern say 79.70 , so only 20 pips, say normal trading techniques would allow 100 pip stop , so
i can place bigger positions.
400k short on this one risking about $ 700 http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x...99/nzdm1-3.jpg
yes i normally have a 100 to 150 pip stop just to give it some room, i understand now what you were saying the other day regard you can put on a large size position and still keep the amount of risk down to very low levels.
how long does it take to learn Elliot wave to your standard?
chunky short going nicely rod , 150+ and plans for a lot more.
great call
i DA,
yes will be interesting how this plays out.Scott Carney has an initial target at B i will be encouraged as it pass`s through support
1.2950-30 level
hi rod , hope you got a piece of the action overnight.
short aud,+110, +95 nzd +95 and audnzd still ticking along at 130+
au employment data at 1.30, whispers are it will be worse than anticipated , so may get a boost for short audnzd.