Happy to get back in after the result. Much better than I thought
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Happy to get back in after the result. Much better than I thought
There's a lot of talk around these days about the problems in the construction industry, especially contract cost over-runs and completion delays. Fletchers is a local example but apparently it's a world wide problem. Given this, should shareholders be concerned about any flow-on effect on CBL's Builders' Performance Guarantee and other associated insurance contracts etc?
Disc: Holding CBL.
Good point. So far I assume that these guarantees cover only quality problems ... as well as covering the owner of the house if the builder goes bust. I am not aware of insurance against time overruns in construction projects and am pretty sure that any premium against this risk would be prohibitive. CBL seems to focus on insuring many small risks vs a small number of big risks.
A larger risk for them I could see would be another leaky building crisis or similar ... Certainly worthwhile to investigate how good their reinsurance would be in a case like that. Anybody knows?
Tides about to change ?
Another of Richard Farleigh's pieces of wisdom is that prices go further than expected, both down as well as up.
He says historically, all of the different asset classes have a habit of surprising people by how far they move and how long they keep moving. And he advises you to forget the old price. That often people arbitrarily decide a market is under or overvalued. In many cases it based on a feeling that the price has moved too far.
I was surprised by CBL increasing over 100% in its first year after listing. It's price went further than I expected. Not many IPOs do that.
So yes, hopefully it is bottoming out around the $3 mark.
Heh moka, I bought the e-book and now you are spoiling the plot for me :).
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Agree share price surprising on the upside bc Fund/s buying in,share price surprising on the downside bc fund/s selling out.
The company performance not so exaggerated as share price performance would suggest/
This is not the SP I was looking for!
Must get to the end of the book to find out what to do!
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Hoping the selling pressure has abated...don't want to jinx it though.
Good jump up again, shame I just missed it! I'd finally put in a buy order over the weekend after doing my research and thinking it's worth buying into, but it bounced back up before my order was hit! Oh well, will keep watching for a bit longer...
CBL's short, listed history has been characterised by, often sudden, big moves in the shareprice, not uncommon in smaller, thinly traded stocks. Setting limits on buy/sell orders can be a bit counter-productive in such circumstances. If a stock is worth buying, a few cents shouldn't be an issue. Just IMO.
:cool:
Disc: Holding.
I am so happy to see CBL share price making a come back. I have been keeping the faith that the fundamentals are sound and I am back in the position of being 'in the money' on three of my four buying sprees. I also have also collected a few dollars of dividends to help along the way.
Hopefully there are no more 'negative' surprises for a couple of years.
Whilst this years headline numbers are not going to great I hope that FY18 and beyond live up to my expectations.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Under 15/30DMA and on huge volume (2.8m), may be heading towards that 289 target... possibly a good buy coming soon.
Attachment 9228
old chart
I am skeptical now with CBL...looks highly volatile.Just went below 30 day SMA...and there was a huge crossover in the morning at $3.00....fingers crossed.
"Insurance boss Peter Harris has been crowned EY Entrepreneur Of The Year for 2017 and will represent New Zealand at a global competition in Monaco.
Harris, the founder of NZX-listed insurer CBL Corporation, beat four other category winners to take the top gong at tonight's awards.
Chair of the EY judging panel and co-founder of James Pascoe Group, Anne Norman, said Harris was a "true master entrepreneur".
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11932453
Just so I don't forget to keep watching this one I dipped my toe into CBL this morning... where will they be in 2020?
I have a sneaking suspicion they will be valued above and beyond todays 700m.
At 17x ttm earnings and a favourable looking 2018, could warrant a closer look... bit more risk than I usually like to take.
Attachment 9246
Absolutely - they are in my books with a forward PE of 10.4 (unless they make another substantial increase to their reserves ;)) and a CAGR of 30!
Board and management have lots of bacon in the game (skin alone wouldn't make up the weight they are invested in);
On the flipside - there are risks as well ... and while I don't think that they set themselves up for unreasonable risks in the next earthquake, bad weather event or leaky housing crisis - they are aggressively expanding into new and unknown markets like e.g. Mexico and India. It is a huge opportunity to be the first in these markets with a number of financial risk insurance products, but they obviously will need to learn to work and make money in countries with high levels of criminality and corruption and a jurisdiction not known for high integrity.
Discl: Holding - but keeping my diversification policies in mind ...
Plenty of growth potential
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11935389
Thanks kiora. Five million homes in Mexico insured(under warranty for completion)!
I have just slammed the bottom drawer on this stock and will give it minimal attention for 5 years (hopefully) and just let things compound.
thats the Mexico thats just been having heaps of large earthquakes right?
Sorry , correct me if my interpretation is wrong but to be clear; under warranty insurance, big difference. Low risk high margin imo.
"In the residential market, that involves giving home owners guarantees that a builder will finish the job."
And Kiora eats the worm i drink the tequila ,RRRReeeeba!;)
Touche, cheers.
Surely CBL should also be a beneficiary of lower NZD with its overseas business exposure mainly in Europe.
Big crossing of more than Mln shares pre-market at 2.92 a piece.
Looks like this one ready for next leg up with their presentation to FNZC wealth conference and First NZ increasing their stake as per SSH notice issued y'day.
Also notice current trading depth show big spread between bid price and ask price.
PDF here it is esp for peat;)
Hopefully this will continue.
I have as many in the portfolio as I consider prudent but would be perfectly happy for CBL to expand it's weighting through share price appreciation (long word for go-up).
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
https://nzx.com/announcements/310960
Ms Tindal appointed as COO of CBL group, here recent appointment was that of CFO of Auckland Council.
Must be due for a kick back up the road about now PT,Gee up for Xmas
Biggest volume in 70 days yesterday followed by the second biggest ( so far ) today.
FNZC know what a discount looks like
For what it is worth - Share price did break a week ago through the MA100 and so far seems to hold. Lets take this as the first good technical indicator in some time - shall we?
Another day of decent accumulation at marginally higher price. Looks like someone taking decent stake before the results are out next month.
Funny stock this... why is liquidity so low? Is it just because insurance isn't interesting?
Holding since low 3's and nice to see it move up but don't really have a good feel for it yet.
Tiny float, low dividend TTM and a fat write down recently are not pretty enough to catch the eye.
You get to appreciate CBL by delving into their reports...
Not a very well understood business by most... nor do they have the most transparent outlook either.
The move into Indian infrastructure guarantee bonds and surety presents an incredible opportunity moving forward.
https://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/infra...e-in-india.pdf
I have far too much riding on CBL, kept buying up every time it hit that 2.90-2.95 sweet spot.
Happy to hold for a long, long, long time.
Yes, chart is definitely not a pretty one but I took a leap assuming it had bottomed out. International growth prospects look very interesting as you've said.
Hopefully the tiny float works out well for current holders, I feel like good news could really give this a bit of a lift. (But as always if I'm proven wrong I have a stop loss in place!).
Understandable... the problem is, we really do not know how they are tracking as outlooks and updates are few and far between
Forecasting in their line of work would be quite a difficult undertaking and I don't think they are keen on shooting themselves in the foot.
Agree with you on any solid, good news with this few sellers could move it into 350+.... same goes for bad news heading below 300 ( HOPE THAT STOP LOSS IS MKT PRICE AND NOT LIMIT PRICE )
I feel like this will be going sideways for a wee while, unless 2HY is massive or they give detailed forecasts for next year (which i guess is difficult due the nature of the business). The forecast on 4traders of 42m NPAT for FY17 won't be achieved imo, even if the reserve payment is taken off this 42m forecast - making it 31m odd. Which would require roughly a 19m 2HY NPAT, a 50% increase over the prior period.
Therefore, i don't think we will see a massive year of growth until next year. I know NZFC has a lot invested in this but do they have an analyst outlook on CBL?
Disc: hold a decent amount.
I believe CBL had 23M in normalised NPAT 1H18...
Attachment 9440
What's your point? Are You saying the 42m forecast is normalised NPAT? Normalised NPAT for FY16 was 46.7m - 1HY16 was 23.2m and 23.7m for 2Y16, albeit benefiting from currency conditions (which the market doesn't seem to care for) and the no tax effect from write downs. Doesn't seem to be all that riveting having 23.6m normalised NPAT 1H17...
Therefore, regardless of whether normalised or IFRS NPAT is used as the measurement, i feel there needs to be massive growth in both for the 2HY17 period, in order for the SP to see favourable action.
Slide 7 of this report
http://cblcorporation.co.nz/UserFile...esentation.pdf
p.s. let me know if the link works because i'm having trouble linking pdf's in this browser
You guys enthusiasm for CBL piqued my interestv....mybe CBL is different from most insurance type companies.
Investment in insurors never really been my thing .... make money on the premiums sitting on the bank and hope you come out ahead on one's claims experience. And then accounts are basically a guess anyway (acturial assumptions and all that) so always hard to understand what the real picture is.
But I pressed on but after trying to uderstand this document CBL is not for me
https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...bl.nzx-311362/
I take it you guys have a decent feel for how things work ....good on you.
Not sure how I missed that one!... maybe I have selective vision.
Either way, the underlying business is more than strong and shows a lot of potential moving forward.
I also don't think this FY will be pretty to look at initially but as always, the machines operations are all sweet.
I know FNZC is a buy with a 370 or something PT and Forbarr neutral with ~350
Anyone know the 3rd broker covering this one?
As collectively their forecasts for FY18 averages out at 73M NPAT.
Wasn’t the most glossy and colourful preso was it
But full of technical stuff about what they do and how they report the numbers
Good on you guys for understanding all this
But betcha only a couple of people, if that, have a real feel for how things are progressing
But then the main guys have been doing this successfully for a long time so unless something blows up in their faces will be at in years to come.
You make a good point, winner. I've managed to miss out on some great opportunities over the years by observing the rule - Don't invest in anything you don't fully understand.
Disc: Still have a few CBL
;)
Go out for the morning and come home and go and put an order in for a few CBL and bugger me a TRADING HALT pending an announcement
Either my dilly dallying around has cost me heaps ....or been saved by the skin of my teeth
Betcha it’s all good news ..bugger, will have to pay more now
No announcement on ASX yet
uh oh, not something you really want to see with an insurance company.
Oh the ASX announcement it says it is to do with the FY results expectations
Probably a asset writedown of some sort ....but as long as its a non cash adjustment no worries as 'normalised' underlying profit won't be affected
With Monday being a ‘holiday’ and having a long weekend CBL might be going to do the ‘announce bad news on 5pm Friday before a long weekend and hope nobody notices’ trick
I fear not - probably havevto sweat on it over the weekend.
Might put in a buy order at $3.00 ....no it should be $2.75 .....to catch those that panic sell when it starts trading again.
why do you need to go into trading halt to release a trading update?
BGP just one fired one out at 11.04 this morning. Much better to do it well before the market opens, but nonetheless, I'm not sure why CBL has asked for a halt just to update on trading?
A typical reason would be if some people (like employers, contractors, staff in companies they work with) have material information impacting the companies performance (good or bad), but the company still needs a bit of time to quantify the impact.
During this time they better halt trading, otherwise the company opens itself to potential damage claims.
BTW - if we hope that there was already some leaking ... SP went up recently - i.e. could be good news ;);
Discl: Most people call me pessimist, but I think I am a realist. However - who knows, I might be just a plain vanilla optimist :scared:.
If it's a trading update and it's good news it's pretty easy to come out and say it. If it's bad news the story needs a bit of polish before it's released.
However, it could be a takeover - one way or the other - or some other corporate activity and the details are being finalized over the weekend.
Whatever, Monday morning will be interesting.
DISCL: I'm exposed but only 1% of my portfolio so not too fussed either way.
from ASX trading halt says so CBL can update FY17 results (my gut feeling would be bad news). I have been watching this company for nearly a year now looking to buy and nearly did this week but decided the trend was still not my friend. Will be an interesting announcement
Actually - they did mention FY17 (i.e. not F18) result expectations :);
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201802...3xpcgs217m.pdf
course were awaiting FY17
Me bad again ....off course we were waiting for a fantastic FY17 result. Years past by faster as you get older
At this late stage maybe having troubles with auditors and debating what assumptions are realistic (or not)
One would have to say material one way or the other
What were FY17 expectations anyway?
Since guidance was so vague it leads me to believe this has to be pretty bad in order for a trading halt to occur.
... ah well, Winner you can have mine for 275.
No concrete company forecasts as far as I know, but from memory there is an ASX rule that (ASX-) listed companies need to make announcements if they know that their performance will be more than 10 (or 15?)% off the publicly available analyst consensus.
This might be as well the reason that they gave a reason for the halt on ASX, but not on NZX (not a NZX rule).
Analyst consensus for CBL FY17 is according to 4traders:
http://www.4-traders.com/CBL-CORPORA...78/financials/
Revenue 358m (up from 264m in 2016) and NPAT 42m (up from 29.7m in 2016).
Maybe somebody just recently discovered on board level this ASX listing requirement? Otherwise I can't really imagine that they would need more than one month after the end of the financial year to find whether revenue / earnings numbers are quite different to the analyst forecasts ...
Ah well, I guess tomorrow we will know more ...