Sometimes you gotta spend money to make money. With relatively few bids its set up quite nicely for a nudge down. Small sells to the bid. A large parcel on the ask. That says to me Pesky wants more for less...
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As long as Pesky lets me in on a few crumbs I am happy for the games to continue.
Whats everyones thoughts on the roughly 7% drop in the last few days? (as at 11.20am 30/1/20)
shares go up shares go down. Occasionally the prices represent fair value but the price is what the market is prepared to pay at this point in time.
It’s the future that counts.
Is IKE well managed?
Do they have a service that is in demand?
Will that demand grow?
I would say the answer is yes to the above questions
When shares rise quickly they often drop quickly too.
Whoever was buying recently drove the price up because most people are hanging on their shares and so to fill their buy order they had keep paying more.
What then happens is the stock drifts back down on low volume trading as small traders buying the upswing exit for a quick buck (or not if they time it wrong), a few sell because of general nervousness over viruses or other news they think might bring the market down. Some sell because they want the money for something else etc.
My thought is ... throw out a buy order and see what I can get a bargin price. Picked up a handful today.
As long as the peaks keep getting higher and the troughs dip lower each time then buy in the dips and sell ...wait .. I don't sell these ones :D
Yeah I've noted this pattern a lot too especially with stocks at this market cap.
It was driven up on volumes >100k, then driven down a similar % by volumes in significantly lower
volumes.
I have found paying attention to depth can be extremely deceiving when trading. For example,
there is someone willing to sell 90k shares now at 0.90. Really? After a positive announcement..
I feel there is some degree of manipulation sometimes too. A good example is with SPY where
institutes were clearly trying to drive the price down
I think they must have been annoyed at me picking up the sellers and cleared my buy order today, now they are sitting back at the price they wanted to pay waiting for more panic sells. Perhaps I shall annoy them a little longer.
In y'day''s NBR behind paywall, article titled...
Aim for the stars. stay the course, ikeGPS CEO says
That must explain the interest today, I was wondering what caused it. I thought I better grab a few ahead of the rush.
Pretty strong buying now . Regardless good long term hold imo especially with 5G want to top up but a little high now
I couldn't do it....I jumped. Got a feeling I could come to regret it but just not worth the worry !
What made you worry exactly? lol it always drops on low volumes..
It seems like a pretty safe industry when looking at what the virus is affecting.
Unfortunately, I wasn't around to catch your jump! Maybe some of your friends might be equally as jumpy heading into Friday and I can catch a bargain?
5G projects and the already growing number of contracts is highly appealing .
Stock needs a large NZ institute to bump it up above $1 😂
Some say IkeGPS will do well with 5G
Shrewdie wants you to watch this
https://youtu.be/yNBYF2ry6lc
Fried eyeballs aside, I see no reason this was trading at 7% down so had buy some more today.
picked some up at 68c today... don't see how this would be affected by anything going on right now.
Surely, this company will bounce back pretty quick? I can’t see their revenue being devastated by world events.
So many buying opportunities so little money.
I would also think that taking into consideration who their major clients are and with the roll out of 5G creating more opportunities for them.
I think company valuations are a lottery at present.so yes plenty of opportunities.
That said, I am out of the market at present.
Yeah brutal drop wish I could enter entirely now ohwell
I did a little fundamental recap on IKE today as i've decided to stop worrying on these unpredictable drops and instead focus on somewhat of a value investing approach for now.
From a balance sheet perspect IKE had somewhat stagnant revenue growth last yoy however the key underlying fundamental upholding positive sentiment was the recurring revenue. Debt to equity is currently a favourable level, I make note that FCF and OCF was negative last year, however cash position was positive for the first time. Total cash and receivables at 31 December 2019 of approximately $6.9m, in addition to projected growth in Q4 being multiplied by backlogs from Q3.
Expect a notable yoy growth in May much greater than last year. 5G network development has not been ceased from what i've researched, IKE's expanding contracts into this zone. Furthermore, engineering firms relevant to IKE have not shut down or delayed/cancelled projects due to the current coronovirus situation.
Won't type out everything but I find it hard to sell of IKE and have decided to keep it as one of the few stocks i'm still holding, DCA'd at 0.500 today. if it goes lower i'd top up even more to be honest.
Agreed IKE is one of those stocks that sneakily creeps back up. Lucky for us some big investing firms have had it go into their eyes a lot more recently.
I think the engineering space from a maintenance requirement perspective makes IKE a "safe" stock so to speak not being dependent on individuals in the public needing to buy the product to increase revenue...
Anyone want to be sneaky and PM me the NBR article on IKE haha :)
Solid position in the lockdown I would imagine as involved in services which are surely “essential” field work in North America.
5G work deemed essential!
CFO still has faith putting his money on the line.
It will be interesting to hear if it is as insulated as holders might hope.
The contractors they service are essential services - expansion work might be on hold though.
Be interesting to know how their own online processing team are fairing - work from home maybe?
Just bumping this up. Thought we might have seen a performance update by now.
Been topping up all the way down, no change on my position.
This company is in a solid position and I bet guidance won't change and they'll meet it.
Heard it here first - lol
And I should re-iterate my speculation is not based on I want the sp to go up so I make money
- I think 5G infrastructural development is actually being promoted right now and seen as being extremely essential. Furthermore, the pole infrastructure issues that IKE has and will solve provide somewhat of a long-term security to the product, with their cloud component creating stickiness and somewhat of a switching cost with companies being trained
in using IKE analyze.
Possible bear arguments is the potential for IKE to grow from a revenue standpoint may not be extensive, especially
with deals probably not being signed as much. But I think that's a very fear based statement. And if anything the current
climate also filters out smaller competitors. IKE also reduces the need for # of people to be out in the field for
pole projects and I imagine that's going to be beneficial in the current climate.
Will the sp spike above $1 in the next year? maybe not, how about in 3 years? who knows might just hover below for a long-time till it scales up which could be anyones guess. Either way a strong recurring revenue stream means i'll continue to be bull on IKE until I hear the company has stagnated or their product is no longer fetching the attention of companies like AT and T
I agree with you Cadalac123. Some pretty good contracts in place with companies that aren't going away.
The IKE Analyze system works even better in a Covid world where worker separation is required so I don't really see a downside.
If the Donald is going to chuck some cash at infrastructure to get things humming again before voting day it could see quite an upside.
Been stacking these away for a while so hoping we are right.
Great update today.....see it here.
Preliminary headline FY20 performance;
+ Record revenue of approximately $9.8m in the 12-month period (growth of approximately 23% against PCP)
+ Record gross margin of approximately $7.1m in the 12-month period (growth of approximately 33% against PCP).
+ Gross margin percentage of approximately 72%, with this increase due to IKE's revenue mix shifting to a bias of transaction and recurring sources over the past approximately 18 months.
+ EBITDA in the period is expected to be a materially improved result against PCP, noting it will be negative for the full 12 months.
+ Total cash and receivables at 31 March 2020 of approximately $6.0m. No debt.
It certainly confirms our guesstimation of how IKE would be performing. As safe as any stock you can have in a world on the verge of capitulation I’d think.
Good update imo tracking as expected market doesn’t care though hardly moved .
Also as expected lol
I have certainly given up trying to understand the market.
IKE tracking well with by-in-large business as usual during global Covid and little market reaction.
SKO with good reserves and busy with R&D during lockdown so will be well positioned when travel resumes, but currently facing all kinds of immediate headwinds surges ahead.
No wonder the advice is time in the market not time the market!
Yeah agreed timesurfer.
From a long term perspective even current prices are still good buying points for both companies .
I’ll continue to hold till fundamentals change
Can't help thinking IKE is 'well positioned' when we are getting news like this out of the USA.
"The Covid-19 crisis is exposing how the cracks in the US’s creaking digital infrastructure are potentially putting lives at risk, exclusive research shows.
With most of the country on lockdown and millions relying on the internet for work, healthcare, education and shopping, research by M-Lab, an open source project which monitors global internet performance, showed that internet service slowed across the country after the lockdowns.
“This is going to kill people,” said Sascha Meinrath, co-founder of M-Lab.
In late March, most people in 62% of countiesacross the US did not have the government’s minimum download speed for broadband internet, according to M-Lab."
Another article noting USA lacking IT infrastructure investment at this time.....
Bodes well for a lot of savvy NZ companies incl XRO and yes IKE
Yeah lots of great opportunities .
Will wait this one out, the dip allowed me to average my entry position to around 55c.
Revenue growth isn’t fancy right now but it’s going to be the strong balance sheet and recurring revenue that will let it be a sustainable business overtime.
I short term trade a lot of stocks on NZX but probably not this one
This can only be good news for IKE
https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pa...its-power-grid
Something's brewing behind scenes???
Little actual shares being traded. So rising on very little volume. No one wants to sell.
Had some option conversion surprised Milne didn’t sell them lol was somewhat afraid he’ was going to do that ..
I'm slowly learning to be patient....... but it is b...... hard.
Guess we are 'well positioned.'
Haha agreed. I shaved off some of my holding at 68c but didn't sell all of it as I believe in the long-term prospects. Somewhat regret not waiting till the report now but I always make that mistake, probably could have made a lot more by waiting till today to shave a little off.
It's just a matter of waiting till IKE establishes those big contracts, already has it's foot in the door, it's basically a waiting game. Given my low average entry with this one I probably won't let go of it so easily.
The 80c ask looking ripe to be taken out going by current depth...
Going by their latest business update for 12 months ended 31 Mar 20, they've cash and receivables of approx $6mln and no debt. So i'm picking no cap raise required by the looks as previous cash balance as at end of 31 Dec 2019 was $6.9mln. So cash burn rate was $0.9mln for 3 months.
Wonder what else could be the reason for sudden lack of sellers at low price level...
You're right. Would be weird considering only late last year they raised capital. This year is key for them. They keep predicting positive operating cashflow only for it to be delayed over and over.
I'm encouraged by their ability to scale up given the SaaS model they've employed, but we need a big jump in revenue.
What no result today
They do have a habit of releasing results during the day...
IKE has, along with others who need it, an extra 30 days for reporting this year:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350265
Still waiting. I would have thought if they need more time before there result they would actually mention a release date
Did I miss something today. Lots of trading
Someone has been accumulating decent amounts over past few days, something's up....?
Good growth indicators in the industry they service:
https://www.transmissionhub.com/arti...ification.html
Look at poles and fixtures in this graph:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=34892
Rising tide? :)
Long term has good growth prospects.. I echo this a lot on this thread. Just might be a bit of wait to get there, but solid long hold especially after the recent dip that's for sure.
Recent volumes are pretty disproportional and broke the average volume quite notably.
FY 20 results to be out on Monday 29th as per reporting calendar on NZX
Let's hope the liquidity comes back with the report. Already know the report is good since they basically released the results a few weeks ago, however needs to outline clear growth trajectory from here on / progress on contractual agreements hopefully..
Still waiting.
15 min till close no report. What a strange way this company conducts itself. Reminds me of how slow they were to report COVID impacts.
To be honest I'm not impressed
Slow to inform they wernt releasing report a month ago. Now can't even release it on the day they said they would. For a company which shows promise I'm really disappointed at the speed of this report. Makes me doubt having shares in them
Working to USA time?
It’s not like they even to produce the Annual Report today
Not so sure....... here's the news.
+ Record revenue of approximately $9.8m (growth of approximately 23% against PCP)
+ Record gross margin of approximately $7.0m (growth of approximately 30% against PCP).
+ Gross margin percentage of approximately 71% (PCP of 67%) with this increase due to IKE's revenue mix shifting further to transaction and recurring subscription sources.
+ Operating loss for the year was approximately ($5.6m) against PCP of ($5.1m).
+ Operating cash flow for the year was approximately ($1.1m) against PCP of ($4.0m).
+ Total cash and receivables 31 March 2020 of approximately $5.8m. No debt.
Always a bit of a worry when they issue results at the end of a business day!
At least everybody should be happy even if they had to read it on the way home.
The numbers are pretty much in-line with April's announcement. I'd say most companies are leaving it until the last minute to see where the trends are heading for current and future quarters based on Covid 19. To be honest that commentary for me is more important that End Of Year financials.
Agree....... I'm pretty happy with the results. IKE are carving out a good Niche as the USA moves towards 5G deployment. Their increase in re-occuring income is impressive....... the only real concern is the whole Covid uncertainty in the US, however I suspect this industry should be regarded as "essential."
It has been deemed "essential". Current quarter revenue for IKE in Q1 is approx $2m. So not too much damage thankfully. Looks like things are now returning to normal.... so the next 3 quarters will need to pick up some decent growth if they are to beat FY20 numbers.
Someone is happy to oblige and take them off weak hands...