http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/4...6032008gg5.jpg
Printable View
i was just thinking ..................
to me the 618 retracement is a more significant reversal point , yet its not quite the dominant fib level in harmonic patterns
im kind of surprised that there are no patterns that have prz at 618 , it seems to me theres very often a reaction around this level
could be a opportunity to be immortalised with a catchy name
maybe bat , butterfly , crab and the COCK
Could be interesting DB..... :D
...........I think the COCK is giving the UP signal
in a very concise response it pays to be a jack of all trades
a little bit of candlestick , patterns , harmonics especially and a little elliot wave
sometimes the stars align and everything confirms , this trade is worth waiting for
shares are very tradeable using tehnical indicators and its got me thinking one thing i miss from share trading is volume , i allways felt it was a good indicator but no direct volume parameters in forex
arcos trades are well worth studying as hes been doing it a while and hes bloody good
looks like a possible short
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z...u32/aud4-9.jpg
long term looks like cup and handle
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z...32/aud4-9c.jpg
it would be good if the USD got a bit more popular about now....
hi all
at the minute 9.57 there is a bearish butterfly on the gpb hourly starting from the 14 till now at 127 currently.waiting to see if it is going to morph to 161.or a reversal
not much point in posting chart as dailyfx charts are cr***p lines go all over the place.
cheers
roddy
The ASX200 just completed a nice 100 point butterfly over the last couple of days. Sorry but I don't know how to post this pic.
Hi Bilo
Posting a chart.
I have mentioned this before on one of the FX threads...but cant find it at the moment. I did find a similar explanion that Phaedrus placed on the forum - link below. He mentions Screen Hunter which I have used in the past although I use Printkey 2000 currently - they both do a similar job.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...+hunter&page=2
The first thing you need to post charts is a Screen Capture
programme. This will work regardless of the source of your charts - website, MetaStock or any other charting software. An excellent screen capture utility can be downloaded from
http://www.wisdom-soft.com/downloads/downloadfiles.htm
It is called "ScreenHunter" (323KB) and will run on Win 95/98/NT4/ME/2000 and XP. This programme is free. There are no catches, no ads, and no time limits. It can capture the active window, the full screen, or any user defined rectangle. This last option is the one you want because it enables you to select only the actual graph, leaving out any toolbars etc. The file can be saved as BMP, JPG or GIF. Select the GIF option - this gives small files that are easily read by any system. A typical chart would give a BMP file of 1200KB, JPG would take 70KB, but GIF format would take less than 15KB. This makes for faster downloads. Save the file to your desktop. Do not make the charts too big. Restrict them to about 3/4 of the screen width. If you post a larger image, it makes the entire thread too wide to view directly and is very annoying for everyone.
After screen capture, save as a file and then download using the 'manage attachments' button lower down on the reply page
Something like this Arco?
Well it could have included the Aussie200 Index CFD heading, but I might get the idea - thanks for the screen capture software tip.:)
Bilo
Looks OK Bilo.
Is that a baby BF at the end?
everyones pretty bullish on AUD/NZD at the moment
Max sent out a flyer about NZD/AUD goin to .73 on 28/4 (see the 2nd pic with the writing above it) [sorry Max, but if you send them to me free I wont consider them copyright]
and McDunk in the shares forums is gloating about putting all his money over there earlier this year
I should be buying them too for my trip over there next month but I'm not.
This looks like a bearish gartley to me although if you'd sold at D it would be -150 already
It will probably end up being a butterfly and go to 1.24 , anyway just thought I'd post what I see.
Hi Peat
My genetically modified green butterfly collection seems to
agree with higher prices to come......mentioned this on the
Aud.Nzd thread (I think).
rgds - arco
just happen to spot this NZD/JPY ON 15 min chart 161 would be good
This is an interesting take on the gartley/butterfly
Mikula Forecasting Company: Strategy #17:Gartley Pattern 0.382 Failure
When the price falls back below the point C the pattern has failed and it is an indication that the stock price may collapse.
http://www.mikulaforecasting.com/public/s17_adi.gif
Hi Peat
Interesting slant on Harmonic patterns.
IMO a pattern cant be a considered anywhere near a Gartley until it is properly formed.
This pattern is something else, however it did form a bullish BF towards the final few bars.
arco
Arco
If the D point of a butterfly goes below 1.618 of XA does this invalidate it from your perspective?
Hi Peat
Not necessarily, although ideally a BF should complete around 161.8
If there is an overshoot I keep in mind the existing formation I have considered, but also look to see if there are any alternative X points or other harmonic set-ups that may be in play in various time-frames.
e.g. Swissy could currently have an X at Oct 30 (as well as 4 Dec) and be forming a longer time frame Gartley.
So I keep both potential patterns in mind but await a reversal confirmation signal before considering any entry.
rgds - arco
CMC Markets offering a free webinar on the butterfly !!
I will be winging myself to Oz so wont be online. If you didnt get the email maybe check their website.
I'm sure we could organise a time for you to give a presentation on the butterfly arco and would bet we'd get a few takers too
theoretically butterfly's are just another shape but i rarely seem to find them and the lack of a clear stop point makes them somehow less tradeable to me.
I'm actually a bit miffed that I cant make this presentation. anyone going to listen in ?
Peat I will try, but I cant find any link here
http://www.cmcmarkets.co.nz/en/conte...tion/index.jsp
....................where to book the webinar?
Try here arco
https://www.cmcmarkets.com.au/en/con...rn/webinars.do
and I will flick you the email too as it has a event number and password.
I'm a bit worried that it will be a lot of marketing hype for you to wade through so no worries if its too much effort.
Peat
I've never heard of the presenter, so he's not a famous 'Butterfly' expert.
Googled Ric Spooner, there are links, but all back to CMC
eg
http://www.cmcmembers.com.au/traders...806/page13.pdf
http://www.cmcmembers.com.au/traders...806/page15.pdf
I'll do my best to watch, and take snags if possible. However, I dont expect to hear anything that is not known already.
ok thx
be back on Tuesday.... all possies closed , was quite surprised that USD/CHF came back and took the remiaining third out. Only got +40
Peat
I listened through the whole session......in fact I was the only attendee
Nothing new. I could have given a better presentation myself.
Entry suggested after break back through X or B or on a pre-chosen horizontal trend-line that has multiple s/r points.
You can re-view the webinar by contacting
education@cmcmarkets.com.au
rgds - arco
me back from Oz, managed to avoid floods and fires.
thanks for that review arco - shame it wasnt more useful to you
I will email them and try to view it post event.
and to celebrate my return my first trade got me 83 pips while having tea and toast. a gartleyish type pattern on the Eur/Usd
Hi Arco/Peat,
here is a web site that relies upon swing and butterfly analysis on the majors for all there TA
www.fx360.com/
cheers
roddy
BTW i am not a member or affiliated with these people in any way other than they send me a freebie once a week
Finally I managed to catch the CMC Butterfly webinar this afternoon.
I found it quite useful and expect some nets to be laid soon
Hi Peat,
heres EUR which might shape up for the net after a while ,interesting they start with an
A as opposed to X
anyone noticed the butterfly on the dow?
however , according to the strategy oulined by Ric Spooner at CMC this still isnt a buy as it needs to break the resistance at around 8000 - 8100. due to the deep final leg of this butterfly
Seems to me that as it went to almost 1.618 (the lowest dotted line) a lot of the up move has occurred already but one must wait for that resistance level (at 8100 ish) to become a support level, and to my untrained eye that doesnt seem to have happened yet.
so not time to jump in yet.
FTSE is the same of course.
This weekend I did a long term scan for butterflies all along the FBL stock. There were some pretty awesome entries and of course a few failures. One definitely needed to take a fairly long term perspective i.e hold your winners to maximise returns otherwise the few failures took too much back as a proportion. But I'm encouraged ... and of course the real point of this is to make a current analysis so here it is
In contrast to the Dow FBU:NZX has in fact confirmed and come back to test , and so far shown support.
The butterfly completed in early March, the buy signal was generated in mid March on that huge green candle day with the B and the green arrow.
Entry (could,should) would have been around $6.00 and stop should properly be at $5 tho now theres been a test without failure maybe that could be raised depending on your risk tolerance I guess.
I've been thinking about the same thing with regards to FBU...it looks good from a classical charting perspective as well. A breakout out of the trading range complete with a pullback to support. Longer term though this one.
A very large butterfly on the Aud/Jpy. Quite perfectly it goes to 127% at the top but imperfectly went too low in the middle. I'm going to forgive it on this occasion. See the tiny little butterfly right at the top giving the first indication.
However technically it must break through the Blue dotted line at around 66 to confirm. That exact point is a little subjective of course - I'm trying to be conservative and it may well find some support at this area. Always hard to know when to pull the trigger. I did it already at 69
Target should be around 57 nearly 1000 pips away but again , technically the stop should be 73.5 around 600 pips from here! :eek: Position sizing a must.
http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/1...8042009.th.jpg
multiple confirmation on sp 500 for a short.
Butterfly on a Crab.
elliot wave expanding triangle.
nice set up , but just a short term trade while waiting for long entry.
yes I got a short in last night on the SP DA based on this chart showing two bearish BF's, and got a fair chunk of that fall , but now I see a bullish BF in force which is really only taking us back to test on the purple one bearish one.
getting caned on my Aud Jpys tho , and why? because I didnt wait for confirmation.
hey peat,
hanging in on spx short but with extreme caution, still feel like main trend is up and thats the one i really want to jump on.
scalping for small change on the SP500 2 minute chart.
that FBU butterfly back in late April flew a fair way....
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showpos...&postcount=242
starting to get a bit carried away in the last couple of days though! I guess , notwithstanding the declared loss the actual earnings fundamentals seem ok.
starting to see some wings spreading in the opposite direction now with RSI divergence occurring as well. but certainly no sign of confirmation. A sell would only be triggered with a daily close below 6.80 and a close above 8.00 will invalidate this bearish butterfly.
quite a perfect gartley on the S+P short time frame
SP500 competing butterflies. the blue one never activated and the black one has won out just now.
.
This MT custom indicator picks up harmonic points - although I spotted a Gartley last night (and made a profit from it) that it missed. Possible reason being the B-C parameters in the code.
Indicators lines are formed in Turquoise - my addition is in heavy green
http://i27.tinypic.com/2i7lqqd.gif
the way I'm working with butterflies is that they need to confirm by going past the resistance/support level at around the point (usually just above/below) where the two triangles join. Its not where they join exactly! Its where you see price hover and jump around a bit. This is what I got from the CMC webinar - so in this case the blue butterfly failed because it didnt break 1025
i'm not saying this always works - see USD/JPY for a failure - but its an approach I seem to have cemented into my thinking. gives me some solid parameters to work with. only problem is of course that this confirmation point is generally a long way up from D so while D would usually be the stop generally its too much to risk.
Using my eyeball backtesting I see a lot of breaks of this 'just above/below B' point where there is a real runaway into the direction the butterfly suggests.
If it breaks that level the resistance becomes support of course and it could be used as a very conservative stop in itself.
The custom indicator has just come up with a weird BF on GBP.JPY
Peat - Red line is your entry point I think
http://i26.tinypic.com/106ghuu.gif
It hasn't found this Gartley yet (my lines in red)
http://i28.tinypic.com/dvn3wj.gif
added to my existing short Euro positions at the top dotted purple line on this EurUSD Gartley ;ast night. The peak coincided exactly with the ECB decision on rates.
arco
I did actually try to play Ninja using the butterfly approach in short time frames to get an entry at the top - with very low risk , but volatility snaffled it up.
Hi Peat
The blue shadings mysteriously vanished overnight, and the pattern didnt give a trade as yet.
There's still a possibility of a rise to 152 area IMO, but currently based on the chart pattern
my entry would be below 150.87 pivot low. Target about 40 pips. (B)
My red Gartley lines are still in place, (and the old red marker).
http://i28.tinypic.com/213qkbr.gif
Hi Peat
Yes, volatility on the Beast is a major problem for SL placement
Looking at the 15m custom indicator chart the Harmonics become quite frantic, but you can see my addition in blue (to the right). If that scenario plays out it will provide a mini BF and a maxi Gartley (Red). Nice combination.
http://i29.tinypic.com/4gntjo.gif
The projection didn't work out, but there has been a bullish BF (ending near ,707) which could have been good for 20-40 pips, and currently a Gartley
http://i25.tinypic.com/ms2ma1.gif
heres an example of the butterfly and the point where it activated on the SP500 last night.
Nice example Peat.
Looks like it would have worked similarly using an EW count, so a good combo confirmation in this case.
http://i25.tinypic.com/qsqf41.jpg
Small BF at the top of this Triangle.
I managed to get some pips off a scalp on the down leg
http://i32.tinypic.com/e1108.gif
Euro butterfly in cyan has only just begun... target 1.45
Noticed that a butterfly on the Aussie 200 has activated
bearish gartley on the kiwi. I have a pretty low success rate with the kiwi so wont overdo this trade but will give it a go.
well the kiwi worked out ok, theoretical target was 6950 which did get hit , tho I took profits sooner than that ....
this time theres a bearish gartley on the 3 hourly (since early Feb) of the Eur/Jpy and that has culminated in a bearish butterfly over the last few days which has activated , so I am short from 124.37
Eur/Jpy short +150 a mere few hours later....
EUR/JPY has found solid support at 121.69 twice today. OANDA are still bearish (expecting a downside play around 122.75), so I'll watch what it does around that price. But as soon as the USD/JPY punches through 90.25, I'm going long (sometime this afternoon after BOJ starts its action?) What will help is if EUR/USD which is due for a breakout, breaks upside (late afternoon?). BTW, be careful around 10am (NZT) - that's when the USD bulls enter the market to reverse it.
conflicting harmonic patterns on silver
the bullish butterfly in yellow and a bearish gartley in red
i prefer the bullish side myself. with support now at the blue line.
(looks like the red lines arent too visible unless you open up the graphic)
Whats the best book or best online document to read regarding gartley patterns, prefer something about 10 pages or less, thanks in adavnce.
There looks potentially like one of these patterns forming on the daily/weekly chart for AUDUSD.
this thread probably has some value but try this
http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~peat/im...GARTLEY222.pdf
silverlight , I had a look at FPH after your post in the NZX thread and drew this.
Thats awesome, thanks, I will have a read over the next few days, you are a wealth of information!
This looks like an interesting example setting up on GBPUSD, would welcome thoughts on my analysis
X to A was 330 pips
A to B was 230 pips (or 70% of XA, textbook should be 61.8%)
B to C was 125 pips (or 55% of AB, textbook 61.8 - 78.6)
C to D(?) was 202 pips (or 160% of BC, textbook 127 -161.8)
A to D(?) was 306 pips (or 92% of XA, text book 78.6)
If you increase the multiplier to 15% they all fit.
A< C ? YES
C< B ? YES
B< D ? YES
D< X ? YES
So could we expect a move south of 500 pips or so?
Place a stop loss above X at 1.5530.
I just wonder if the gartley has already played out see my pic
you can see I take an earlier point for A which is still more than 61.8% retracement but then corrects before heading off to your A point which I label as D. From there we have a correction down to the 32% retracement (which is the first target point for a gartely) so I just wonder if a gartley has already happend
Arco (the expert on harmonics) used to say beware the gartley that morphs into a buttefly. A butterfly eventually retraces to 127% (which hits the stop on a gartley at the 100% point) before making the (in this case) down move.
here is a graphic of the major harmonic patterns as from Carney
So didn't take a position, but a move from the 'D' point so far of 250+ pips.
yes would've been good
the S+P completed and played out a butterfly setup
I've posted previously about the trigger point for butterflys being just below the B point as shown here in the blue rectangle. target A point was reached already here on this hourly.
I like this setup better than the gartley now as I have a objective method I can apply to it as shown in the 2nd pic (bullish butterfly)
Welcome analysis on this pattern, Daily XAUAUD (oz gold)
hey silverlight
you picked a good night to ask a question , sat my last exam this afternoon... have some time now.
Bearish Bat? I attach the bat from my harmonics guide for you to compare
hope you're doing well with that silverlight
Aussie Gold now 128 dollars/oz lower than previous post
AUD/USD is also displaying a perfect bearish gartly which seemed to kick in exactly at the 90.5 c point with todays move down
S+P offers a harmonic pattern that didnt quite fulfil the requirement of the final high to exceed the original high to make it a butterfly - D should be greater than X
however more recetnly I see these patterns as really providing support resistance around the B points and in this instance theres a clear breakthrough down below the purple triangle line which is the trigger point for the short.
so I'll be selling even more around the 1090-1100 area should it go back there.
Hi Peat
I gave this trade on the blog 3rd August based on Ichimoku elements, although it also worked as a nice harmonic pattern.
RESULT +501 POINTS.
Attachment 2831
ORIGINAL POST from 3RD Aug
Attachment 2832
hey arco
yes there were lots of different methodologies all pointing to a fall in the stock market. eg the wedge , the count, the harmonics.
not sure how ichi could've foretold it though. it mainly only seems to tell things after the event imo or if you are working off a bigger time frame.
resistance from the purple area shown in the earlier post zoomed in on here now being tested and rejected on this occasion
Hi Peat
I predicted a move up to 9300 last night on Nikkei for max +225 points, and if anyone was a awake this morning it formed a nice BF on the 1H to play south as well.
http://i37.tinypic.com/9ay44n.gif
Attachment 2846
what was your basis for the prediction - resistance at top of the cloud?
I dont follow the Nikkei at all. and I've been busy with study - quite a few reports due this week..
Our Dedicated Chatroom is now Open
Go to: www.koolpips.com
When get there Click on : Chat Room
No Registration needed or passwords etc
Please use OPERA , Google CHROME , Mozilla Firefox as Internet explorer seems to be playing up ( old scripts)
rgds Zarif
Attachment 3520
the B and D points are right on the 61.8 and the 76.4% fib levels and i reckon a minimum target would have to be the 38% fib retracement so somewhere around 1030 ish area
but sometimes thats just the start. I used a line chart to keep the shapes more angular and defined and its weekly so kind of coarse
I stupidly held short positions from 1100 up and have experienced pain but finally seeing a recovery.
the volatility today has been astounding
Still a bit of a way to go then.
Should mean further weaknes for the NZD. Hopefully.
Attachment 3530
SocGen showing a couple of lovely harmonic patterns , the orange shape is a perfect bearish gartley , but the purple shapes first retracement only went to the 50% fib , reminding us that its the 76% fib that is the more important level.
perfect gartley on the S+P over the last 10 days. divergence....
price at 1268 now
12 hours later down 36 points
thought i would post 3 butterflies on the gbp/usd 4 hourly ,the first butterfly is not quite strictly correct with a drop leg apart from that there should be a reversal which is starting to play out
divergence on indicator and break down through a good support level
Attachment 4738
hey ROddy that first butterfly on cable is quite perfect in price tho pretty wonky in time.
It failed when it turned around at the 1.51 level but until that point had looked quite promising.
However the reason it failed imho is because it is a bearish butterfly but is appearing at the end of a long period of decline (as opposed to a period of increase).
A reversal pattern appears after a significant movement in one direction or the other to indicate a reversal in the trend.
I see it more like this
Attachment 4742
all in my humble opinion of course
A timely video, thought you might find this interesting Roddy
http://youtu.be/WDCNQ0LTJls
Hi Peat
yes definitely 100 % agree Peat how you have drawn your butterfly , I am short just below the the strong support resistance area of 1.56 and had the 3 butterflies as confluence ,confirming
the trade as they are within 50 pips of each other and theres some divergence on the indicator, i totally agree with all your comments