Underlined bit in the quote above nearly completed, hopefully this keeps "going to plan".
Pretty rough come back track that is for sure.
But far from the disaster territory that is sub $1.50
Printable View
Hey tj ......almost same price as Heartland (I know different currencies)
Some feat eh
For both F19 will see record profits, double digit growth, increased divie on the horizon and both great companies.
Just highlights when over $2 both were outrageously overvalued and sensibility has prevailed and both about where they should be. Not too much difference in their price book ratios now.
Heartland probably very lucky to get near double digit growth while flexi almost certain (so the mid point between 8% and 13% would indicate)
... and we won't go into EPS growth for heartland vs FXL... FXL going to look like a superstar there
some say HBL EPS growth for FY19 not even going to be 2%
Record profits for both at least...
Price to book you say? Interesting as FXL has usually traded at a much more bigly price to book ratio than HBL historically...
One thing is for sure, one of them was certainly overvalued at $2+, but that same one had the nice warm and fuzzy story to suit (at the time)
It certainly wasn't the come-back-kid FXL
How contrasting the Year to date charts are... one is flat, the other down a quarter... will be interesting to see where each end up come years end
It's a pretty horrible looking 5 year chart on this one. I'm not so sure it deserves to be at current levels but clearly the market knows more than I. Long term holding on the ASX seems to be a rollercoaster of emotions with much head scratching. When mid/short term trading, at least I welcome any volitility...
ANZ dont do YTD charts but 1 year charts look pretty ugly
All the unfounded irrational exuberance for FXL - it was good as got a few good divies ...but had to give one back - as Mr P often said the market giveth but the market also taketh away
the 'gap' is quite something that is for sure... you're right about the aussies not being happy with the lot of them... that completely unregulated company a few times bigger than fxl that only listed a few years back (the same one that gave hundreds of dollars to under-aged, unverified, unemployed kids to buy alcohol online) has nearly halved in price in the past 2 months... but story is too strong for it to go down to any remotely reasonable valuation
Flexi now have a good relationship with the regulators, so they say, but skeptics be skeptics
Getting worse by the day tj
You were joking in one of your recent posts about $1 weren’t you?
did not think it would sit below $1.70 for long, if at all.. but wowee... $1.59 just after the open today.
Crazy that in almost exactly 2 months, the share price fell up to 70 cents (over a third), despite positive revisions by brokers (following a robust annual result and strong FY19 guidance) and a current mean estimate of $2.50 per share. Virtually no analyst 3 months ago expected flexi to be guiding for a potential $100m+ in FY19 either... yet here we are... $1.59 at one stage today and that dividend yield creeping ever higher.
But at the end of the day, once the panickers had finished panicking, FXL finished down less than some financials (eg ANZ and AMP) and around about the same as most other financials so no worries... no need to get too excited yet
except that unregulated after pay company which defied the odds to finish up bigly
AGM in a few weeks will likely confirm how cheap FXL is
Or explain why it has fallen so dramatically in barely 60 days
Hey winner, look at that, FXL actually up today despite nearly all other financials going down and the ASX 200 itself down over 1%... I would have thought FXL was the very first to go down on a day like today (Although nearly went under the $1.60 mark again)
I suppose FXL's share price ups and downs really don't make sense... but then again we know it hasn't made sense for a good past 2 months now
Even afterpay couldn't stay in the green
$2.30 not even 2 months ago... $1.55 at one stage today, another 10c down (which is alot but not alot for FXL) and we'll be back at 5 year lows and all of this years gains gone. What has changed in the past 2 months? (apart from issuing strong FY19 guidance)
Clearly double digit growth and record profits just ain't good enough for this market.
Not quite closing time but heck going down faster than Heartland
I like your style, deflecting an insensible paper loss to a competition based on an advancing s/p without even considering it could still go further the other way in this volatile correction.!
Im In:)
holding not folding.
Told ya's, DOH!:eek2:
Kinda mea culpa depressing.Looks like we are in the wrong sector(retail) at the wrong time, but it felt right there for a while.Sentiment the current drag? Shoulda coulda woulda taken profits.
But no downgrade and no forecast either. New broom on board, active customers over 1,000,000 for the first time, retailers up 8% to 46,000. Receivables up 10%.
New lease product LISA retiring Flexirent with lots of impairment etc.
I don't know what to think of the AGM... it wasn't rock solid, nor was it a hopeless case... lucky the share price has already priced in a hopeless case, but will likely over-react further today. What is most annoying is how someone(s) must have found out the AGM wasn't going to be to flash as how else would the share price fall 35% in a few months... it seems transparency is starting to become a very big issue with FXL.
Truly crazy stuff.
Your expectations are far too high tj ...will lead to further disappointment I fear
Liked the baseball cap on Slide 7 ...quite cool
And what does this mean “In line with new accounting standards, from 1 July 2018 we have increased our provision for doubtful debts as the credit provision policy moves from one based on incurred loss to one based on expected loss.”. Probably won’t put it through the P&L so will be lost in the big picture.
At this rate FXL = HGH on the ASX
Wow
Dang that was a bounce. They've reconfirmed guidance and it runs form $1.34 to $1.55. Where to now...
Up 20% in a matter of seconds...Me oh my! Like seriously, this is truly crazy!
And then a sudden reversal atm back up to $1.605. Brokers come out with a buy?
Morningstar did... but usually when they say buy it means sell.... amazing how quick the market is to punish, and what a subsequent 100 word announcement can... so much for no news is good news... it would seems good news is ok news and no news is terrible news with FXL
Amateurish company eh tj .....and you have faith in them
Might get the daytraders interested and pumped like hell on hotcopper ....2 bucks plus next week
I hope we dont get spanked by the regulatory fellahs
RESPONSE TO ASIC REPORT ON THE BUY NOW PAY LATER SECTOR 2 pages 220.1KB
If you really want to do a forensic
https://download.asic.gov.au/media/4...28-11-2018.pdf
Flexigroup have actually tried to stay ahead of the regulators and/or work with them proactively... afterpay on the other hand is nearly the opposite: I think I read somewhere that theyreckon giving $500 limit to anyone and everyone after putting in just a few basic details (like registering for a gmail account) is perfectlyprudet, no credit considerations, regulations etc required... no wonder those 16 year olds could purchase alcohol online delivered direct to their doorstep so easily!
Somehow FXL's share price will be hit harder than APT's, despite of course the fact a very small portion of cash monies comes from oxipay at this moment...
something going wrong today - FXL and APT up bigly (7%) one of the largest 1 day rises I can recall since the good old days of $2.30 (post annual results announcement)... then I realise that good day was barely 3 months ago... wow those good ol' days not so old really, how things change.
Only needs to go up another 50% and we'll be back at near fair value for this underperforming dog (until they deliver the 100m cash NPAT in 9 months time, then even mid $2's will probably look cheap)
Hey tj, I see HGH and FXL are the same price on the ASX
Real dog this FXL eh ....but probably about the right price on fundamentals.
I’m still watching whether it will get into another trading range so I can do another few quick trades
When you going to give up on them tj?
ASZ 2019 competition closing in few hours
Jeez ...at this rate FXL will be only a buck by the end of the month.
Has the bungee hit the bottom and allowed holder to grab a trout out of the deep dark green lugubrious river in a chasm, and at that latent point of about to start rising?(the trout was). The metrics here on ASB show a PE of minus 48 (insane laughter) hAHAHAHAhahahahahahhahahahahh, "we're coming to take you away haha, to the funny farm with all those people in their nice white uniforms"........
$12 million impairment NPAT $76-$80 mill.Looks ok to me considering where the s/p has sunk to.Mkt cap re$471 mill.
Download Document 136.97KB
Love it when companies do strategic reviews and tell us to look forward to the new group strategy.
This is really not a good update, but what is worse is the way they announced (when, how, and after Mr Market had clearly known for weeks, arguably months - that is what FXL is being punished for this morning). Less than 6 months ago things were all good to go and the share price was at 230% higher...The reaction this morning is very much emotional and totally overdone but borderline understandable given there seems to be far to many 'one off' impacts (which, yet again, has resulted in most of the downgrade) so understandably the market (and myself) are infuriated. A fancy preso isn't going to help much this time and I suppose we'll find out more in a few weeks.
Does a $12m provision impact Cash NPAT? Is it just one of the adjusting items between Statutory NPAT and this thing called Cash NPAT?
Bit ominious when they use words like ‘below budget expectations’ and ‘slower than forecast’
You not losing the faith are you t_j?
I'm not quite sure... I am thinking this 12m is part of the 20ish m downgrade, but will soon see.
Faith is dented and running very thin now, but I'm not out yet.
You buy more at 97c? you'd be up 10% already if you did
A friend of mine left for lunch and missed out on making a quick doubt digit return, but hey, maybe in the longer/bigger picture it was good he left for lunch... time will tell
Maybe I should have left for lunch at 11:30am and not come back to the office
Not that much damage to the share price today .....probably close not much differentl from yesterday’s close
But some made big bucks today ...and some no doubt crystallised big losses.
Certainly is shaping up to be a game of two halves... although I was in neither half.
I thought anything above $1.10 would be good... it is worth far in excess of $1.10 even after todays regrettable announcement, but I can understand the fury and swiftly negative reaction against FXL in the way and nature it was announced.
One thing is for sure, Private Equity will be swirling more than ever before around this former market darling at a 6 month forward PE of less than 6.
No ‘bounce’ today .....down 5%
Nothing much going for it to get the share price back to the 130 mark in the next few months
what's all this about t_j ...FLX been a bit dodgy and not been too open with the market or something
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201902...qbjk3q6k66.pdf
We're off zorbing again today
$1.70 they say by the end of this week.
Glad I didn't lose the faith when it fell to under $1 briefly just over 3 weeks ago.
Heavy volume yesterday and the share price up bigly.
What a wild ride it has been.
Yesterday was very surprising (in a good way, which is a nice change over the past 6 months), and if I was APT, I would be a tad worried now - (most) existing products performing ok/well (eg NZ leasing/Certegy), new product launched, PE investor brought on board who will no doubt help (certainly can't make things worse than they are/have been!), and to top it off dividend maintained.
Really will be back to $2.40 before we know it.
Borderline stupid what is happening today... although I'm not going to complain
FXL released a rather short announcement with no financial details/impacts etc what so ever other than 'feel good' more merchants, more customers etc coming on board and the share price moves up 20%... yes twenty percent... trading volumes likely to be 5-6x higher than average.
This stuff, in my view, being a 'given' for flexi (growing merchants, receivables, and customers) after reiterating this was the focus 3 months ago, as well as showing strong double digit growth in these very metrics at half year results... so basically announcing what is already being done, but with a few names to show for it today.
More impressive given every other financial stock on the ASX is down today... Amazing how everyone has 'written off' the FOUNDER of By Now Pay Later and too busy chasing APT and Z1P (and crossing their fingers for a profit, one day)... FXL is just so damn cheap I suppose it was hard to keep ignoring it/placing a negative bias on it.
Not going to get too excited as tomorrow everyone will forget about the great progress the inventors of BNPL (that lead to $7.6 billion AUD market cap: Z1P and APT) and go back to thinking it is an old tired dog with no new tricks.... the main 'new trick' FXL seems to have learned (from Z1P and APT - the market leaders, in this trick) is shout from the room tops any progress you've made, even if its pretty average progress and you have no idea if it will result in increased profitability or what... as if Z1P and APT are anything to go by, an announcement even a mouse farting will send a rocket under your share price.
No, it is not the new APT and Z1P, it is the original 'godfather' that is about to blow the sector away (some say)... but really, its all about the story
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/05/08/i...pay-or-zip-co/
Well the $1.70 didn't quite happen till now (2.5 months later ish) but hey, we back there after a 38 ish cent rise today (although still 1 hour of trading to go) and heavy volume.
Have a read of this:
https://www.afr.com/business/banking...0190507-p51kws
Fair humm-ing again today. They must have hit the right buzzwords in that last announcement
Surged to $1.97 at one stage, now back to $1.75, I'm happy with that for now - crazy what a 'minor' announcement can do, not that far off till the next dividend either really.
As with Z1P's and APT's announcements, its all about the story with FXL's announcement.
Back to $2 pretty soon, once this year and the one off $12m non cash write off is out the way and the story keeps getting ramped a bit more.
Geeks on fat portfolio eating crow :t_up:
All quiet on the western front over there - they just look at a chart and say "wow its gone down", yup, the past is the past, the future is the future... and a dog can learn new tricks.
Just a shame a few 'legacy' issues keep getting in the way (eg the $12m from the TV thing - helping cement already overwhelmingly negative sentiment) on the way to a big rebound.
Crazy to think just over a week ago one could have gotten FXL for a near rock bottom price... since then FXL has gone up 40% and likely to pass $2 by weeks end they say.
Always said under anything $2 is cheap, and this is, once again, is proving to be (nearly) true.
Late September 2018... lets say we are at the 'go to $1' mark... so next step $5?
FY19 not likely to be a record either, thanks to the unforeseen TV fiasco, but probably not as bad as current consensus forecast either.
Crazy to think just over a week ago one could have gotten FXL for a near rock bottom price (being the $1.30's)... since then FXL has gone up 40% and likely to pass $2 by weeks end they say.
Always said under anything $2 is cheap, and this is, once again, is proving to be (nearly) true.
always said it was cheap under $2, hard to believe it went sib $1 breifly!
With it still at a low PE of 10, there is certainly more room to run for the inventor of the BNPL sector.
An old dog can learn new tricks
(... and now that I've posted it, it will somehow revert back under $2 lol)
S/P crossing a few M/A's again (up 11% atp) guys on this announcement.More and more retailers etc adding HUMM. This time guys?:)
FXL humm sellers update
Have always said FXL is cheap under $2... I am surprised after the previous humm update (where it nearly hit $2), it was as cheap as $1.50 something... it is now dead clear there is real momentum building (things are humming along, if I may)...
They say a possible offloading of the dragging part of the business - the commercial side of things (which has been most responsible for downgrades/issues in recent times) - is on the cards...
A removal of this would not only provide hundreds of millions in cash monies, but turn this into a bigly growth stock with a solid dividend... just like the good ol' days.
Imagine if it was valued even remotely close to some other BNPL vendors... basically at an extra zero to the share price and it would still be cheap compared to them!
Exciting times.
Hey t_j - what’s going on with FXL
Share price lower than Heartlands again
They about the same now, although one of them should really be over $2 (and its not heartland)
FXL are 6 months into a 3 year turnaround and some great stuff happening lately... if only the share price was as enthusiastic as it was for similar (they say) companies like Z1P and APT... but oh well, good to see a (true) rebound in the making, with a nice 5.5% dividend or so to continue in the meantime.
Winner, share price now much higher than Heartlands... always too cheap under $2... Mr Market just does not want to believe what FXL are doing: Making themselves great again
Amazing the number of chances Mr Market has had to get into FXL at a cheap level, but maybe tomorrow sub $2 will be no more and FXL will no longer be that cheap.
You might not have seen, but FXL doing some great stuff lately...
https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...27-p52l56.html
They say FXL might be taking BNPL world wide for MasterCard...
'Like a debit card on steroids': Flexigroup seals Mastercard buy now, pay later deal
yum , more please :D
https://mozo.com.au/fintech/meet-bun...res-everywhere
With the share price increasing yesterday, I nearly forgot FXL went ex dividend yesterday as well... blue skies ahead they say
Maybe even $2 today
hey winner, not only is FXL at its highest point since May 2016, and not only (also) is the share price now way higher than heartland, but the market cap is now higher than heartland as well... first time in a while FXL was worth more than heartland I think... in fact if heartland don't watch out, the worst dog of them all (yup, even worse than FXL...) aka ARV will be catching up to them soon.
wow FXL now at $2.65 - the highest since very early Feb 2016 - where are those on fat portfolio that rubbished flexi?
I know they won't apologise (these sorts of people never do), but it would still be nice to (try) understand their thoughts now
One thing is for sure... was always too cheap under $2
- A Global First
"With Buy Now Pay Later (“BNPL”) changing how the world shops, FlexiGroup Limited (ASX: FXL) (“flexigroup”) is pleased to announce the next advancement in consumer finance, a world first BNPL product that can truly be used everywhere. bundll represents a completely new category in the BNPL sector with transactions not being limited by merchant integration. bundll is now available to download from the App Store and Google Play Store."
FXL - bundll launches as a world first for BNPL 2 pages 188.5KB
Who would have thought we’d be able to buy these for under a buck again (next week)
What’s up t_j
Its on my list but waay on down it.
Who would have thought we'd see a sub $1 price that occurred briefly a year ish ago... that lasted for only a few minutes, but there wasn't a virus around then so maybe this time is different.
Despite having a sizable chunk already, if it went from stupidly cheap, to ridiculously cheap, it would appear on my list as well... dividend (which in my view is easily sustainable) itself makes it worth it really... might even be great for FXL long term as might shake some other weaker players in the BNPL out (that don't have the great profits and cashflows FXL do)
t_j — I take it FXL are ‘diverse and resilient’ enough to get through the current crisis.
Share price still in doldrums
I think there are alot of companies with share prices in the doldrums right now winner, FXL hit the hardest because everybody assumes the worst possible with Flexi (have done for the past 5 years + now)... no matter what transformation, what progress, what announcements, Mr Market has never really been on board... when it should be over $2, it as in the $1's, when it should have been marching to $3, it did for a few days, then went straight back down again, and now, when it should be trading at somewhat of a premium to NTA, it isn't, in fact never before has FXL traded below its NTA, hence I had to dip (further) in when it was more than 20% below its NTA (of 73 cents per share).
Announcement today, whilst being great in my view (given the times we are currently in) has done no favors for the share price today... not only is FXL ‘diverse and resilient’, it has a 5+ (and counting) track record of being under priced.
Tj .... FLX loves going up and down big time eh.
Might have another go soon. Missed the last couple of spikes down.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/202006...pymkxzm8h5.pdf
Hope you got in prior to today winner... might miss out after this announcement.
I'd like to thank king for making FXL the 6th most talked about stock on H/C today, boy are the day traders and rampers pumping it. Not much to show for it yet.
This may well help current momentum and 'chatter".
FXL - appointment of new CFO 2 pages 138.3KB
Download Document 146.54KB Update. Will the s/p continue to comatose whilst other BNPL companies go spastic.
What’s up tj ....profits still declining even if you don’t count the $30m Covid adjustment
Everything was looking good a month or so again and I thought this is it to hav3 another go but forgot about it.
Do I wait for it to go under $1 again.
For the 1H20, FXL reported Cash NPAT of $34.5m, now going to be $29m (ie a 2H20 loss of $5m ish purely due to Covid)... the worst of the worst times happened in the 4th Quarter of 2020 and FXL is only losing a little bit in the 2nd half due to a (rather generous I'd say) provision... will certainly make FY21 look fantastic.
Underlying Cash NPAT was $86.0m in FY18, $76.1m in FY19 and $60m in FY20... doesn't look great, but when you look at the transformation from leasing to Cards/BNPL player, it is amazing... most of their competitors are losing money left, right and centre while FXL continues to make millions and millions, despite a very clear transformation underway. For FY20, I expect them to pay a nice dividend far higher than that of a term deposit, or possibly even some bank stocks themselves - a nice bonus, but would understand given how fast they are now growing (16% off an already high base, and increasing - was up 5.1% as at half year) if they decided not to.
FXL isn't reliant on capital raising, mergers, high leverage or hype - it seems grinding away doing a great job repositioning and growing isn't what is wanted these days.
Financed by Flexigroup.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-...ction=business
Seems like little (if anything) to do with Flexigroup and more to do with the solar sales company... I agree Buy Now Pay Later needs more regulation across the entire sector, and FXL would likely be least impacted by this if this was executed. However, targeting one particular category because of a few odd ball complaints almost entirely due to the selling of solar panels, not the financing of them, is far from fair on Flexigroup.
https://www.afr.com/street-talk/flex...0200825-p55p3c
big day ahead winner, hope you got back in as I doubt it'll be going under $1, in fact I doubt it'll spend much longer under $2
Thats a huge cap raise , re 27%of current mkt cap. Still buy now pay later is the hottest sweatiest sexiest thing in town atm and im looking to pay for it as you get what you pay for when you pull up to the bumper.
Unfortunately FXL is in that club, but not in that club - while APT and Z1P are trading at 28x and 13x revenue respectively, FXL is at 1x (yes, you read that right, 28 and 13, compared to just 1, and yet there are alot of similarities as slide 16 of the preso points out)