THL profits over the years seem to be negatively correlated to tourist numbers .... as tourist numbers go up their profits (losses) go down
Printable View
THL profits over the years seem to be negatively correlated to tourist numbers .... as tourist numbers go up their profits (losses) go down
Tourism Industry Monitor:
Expected change in demand and profitability in the next 3 months (Dec10-Feb11 vs. Dec09-Feb10)
Small businesses are expecting little change in demand and profitability in the next 3 months relative to the same period last year, while medium-sized businesses are expecting some uplift in demand. Large businesses are expecting an increase in both demand and profitability. Overall profitability for the industry is expected to increase by 1.5% in the next 3 months.
International Visitor Arrivals November 2010
Australia 84,625 0.1%
United Kingdom 21,175 -13.6%
United States 19,150 2.0%
China 14,875 34.5%
Japan 8,375 4.3%
Germany 8,025 -0.9%
South Korea 6,175 41.3%
Canada 5,050 2.6%
The growth is in the short stay, low value tourism and the contraction is in the high value Interactive Visitors that NZ most needs. The headline arrivals number is not too bad, but when you drill down a bit further you can see that the picture is much worse for general tourism than it is for the airlines and airports.
It's OK if you are an airline or airport, probably good if your in the business of coach tours for the short stay Asian visitors or supplying attractions or other services to these visitors. Not good for accommodation, rental cars, campervans and attractions that are slightly off the beaten track, I suspect the downturn is worse in the regions outside Auckland, Rotorua and Queenstown. Canterbury tourism has been badly affected by the quake.
Article on stuff:
China's largest airline has started a $10 million campaign using Queenstown imagery to attract tourists to New Zealand.
Earlier this month China Southern Airlines announced three direct flights between Guangzhou – a major transit hub 120km north-west of Hong Kong – to Auckland International Airport starting in April.
The airline is the largest in China, operating a fleet of more than 300 aircraft to 121 destinations worldwide.
Auckland Airport general manager aeronautical business development Glenn Wedlock said the inbound Chinese tourism market was emerging rapidly.
Auckland Airport was working with Chinese counterparts on the campaign, which includes TV ads, in-flight magazines and airport billboards.
Some New Zealand flights were already fully booked and the aim was to provide itineraries that included return Queenstown flights from Auckland, Mr Wedlock said.
"We already have programmes in place for Guangzhou, with onward flights to Queenstown," he said.
"Certainly in Guangzhou Tourism New Zealand is spending more money.''
With its fast-growing economy and increasing wealth China's urban classes were enjoying the benefits of disposable incomes.
The ad campaign extended from the major southern hubs to regional cities, such as Shenzhen, a city north of Hong Kong with an urban population of 4 million.
The city's airport, Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, is the fifth busiest in China.
"Queenstown can offer contrasting imagery, different colours, experiences and destinations," Mr Wedlock said.
"Australia has its iconic destinations but we have four seasons and can offer mountains and glaciers in a short space of time."
Itineraries to Queenstown could include add-ons with, for example, visits to Fiordland and Southland.
Mr Wedlock said Tourism New Zealand forecast around 14 per cent of the visitor market was Chinese.
The hope was this market would grow to compare with the number of Japanese and South Korean visitors.
Most Chinese visitors arrived on tour groups but, increasingly, independent travellers were venturing to New Zealand from China, he said.
China Southern Airlines previously announced flights to Auckland via Melbourne but the latest direct flights bypassed Australia, offering a boost to the New Zealand market.
The three times a week service using 284-seater Airbus A330s is scheduled to start on April 8.
Ad Feedback - The Southland Times
It is good to see this market slowly shifting from tour groups to independent travellers. It will take a while, but over time we will see less and less emphasis on the "see everything in a 3-day bus trip" type holiday.
Interesting that from that increase quoted by fwu more than a third of the increase was related to people coming for conferences and conventions ..... those coming on holiday were only up 1.5%
Bak on this thread somewhere are some charts prepared for bull showing vistor numbers and THL revneues
How well this company has done is summed up -
Since 2000 vistor numbers are up 48% while THL revenues per share are down 27% - June years
And the shareprice has followed the revenues line ... although on a price sales basis the current shareprice is historically low but then the market may have woken up to what really happens in the land of campervan and tourist attractions
One year on I repeated my THL rental car and tent trip. First thing I noticed was that the Airport office now closed at 4pm. Probably a good way to make sure that all the paperwork was done and dusted by 5pm. This time I arrived at a not quite so frenetic 2:30pm.
Rather than wait in a queue, I was directed to a self check in screen, part of a row of such screens. I thought this new system was quite a good innovation. Nobody likes waiting, but if 'while they wait' they can be busied entering and confirming their own contract details this eases the waiting pain.
Then my tent arrived, a brand new one! The tent box said for four people, but only a family of sardines would be happy with that description. In any event the tent was only promted as a two person unit. Complete with an outside vestibule, plus foam rolls to put under the sleeping bags and an extra outside hammock (!), no one could complain it wasn't a complete camping package. The tent instructions were sewn into the tent bag itself, so no chance of being 'lost' this time. The only thing missing was a mallet for the tent pegs, but I was able to improvise by putting a heavy stone inside my shoe. I can report the tent was well watertight too, as it rained heavily every night.
The rental car itself presented on paper as a bit of a wreck. When I looked at the actual car, it presented much better than on paper. The girl behind the counter I think was overzealous on noting the damage, much of which were the kind of surface paint scrapes you might expect on a ten year old rental car. In practice the car performed very well, and I returned it with no more additions to be made to the damaged paper artwork.
In general, I couldn't have found the staff more cheerful and helpful. They even printed me out a google map showing the fine detail of where I wanted to get to. If my one experience is representative, it does look like THL are on the right track, service wise, for world cup year. This was a big improvement!
SNOOPY
Yikes
When profit downgrades are worsened and banking covenants in breach their is only one place for eh SP to go today!
Small correction, belg.
Non-earning and depreciating.
Man this company is a dog. Never owned it, never will.
and those visitor numbers and tourism outlook reports were looking so good .... ha ha
Man o man --- losing money again .... or have they ever made any real money?
If any body ever wants a brief history of world events just read THL (sorry they prefer the lower case thl now .. my apologies) reports .... from Sydney Olympics to 9/11 to financial crises to earthquakes to floods to rugby world cups and even more rugby world cups and all the other excuses ... history lesson for all
I fear even another go at new management or restructuring won't work ... thl is really past redemption ... thl is broken ... bankers need to put it out of its misery
Bet shareholders who have been holding for a while regret they didn't let the aussies have it for 280 or something a few years ago ... was it really 280
We've just had friends from overseas visit and they spent three weeks going around teh south island. Observations:
- food an OK price. (so not a drawcard)
- Eating out is an OK price ((so not a draw card)
- Maori are proud of their roots (so no racial disharmony to spoil a visit)
- talking to locals in non-touristy areas was a highlight (its the non-tourist sector that provided a highpoint)
- They went on virtually every tourist thing there was to do (except bungy jumping). - Some prices were OK but some like quad bike riding at $250 a person way over the top. Most things they could have done at home but because it was just down the road they didn't bother (so our adventure tourism isn't that unique)
- They rented a Juicy vehicle out of Europe for the best price.
- Most importantly - where ever they went there no queues. It was straight onto the attraction. (where are the tourists??)
Record number of tourists in December
So says the paper today .... and hey there does seem to be a negative correlation between tourist numbers and THL shareprice
Hpe a record number of tourists doesn't lead to a record low shareprice eh
The INCREASE in GST made NZ a less desirable place to visit & some idiots want to increase it some more. And January would be when it started to hit People booking in October where looking at the increase the GST had on the cost of visiting NZ. Then they looked at alternatives. Is This what has happened to THL.
I doubt it it. If visitor numbers are up THL should be benefiting. If Rugby world cup is supposed to be a boomer year THL should benefit. If I look on the roads all I see are Juicy and Wicked branded vehicles. In the past travelling through central was a real pain because of all the Maui camper vans - but I saw none this year. What I have seen is loads of them parked up in yards. Juicy by all accounts is really taking off. Strikes me that THGL haven't moved with the times.
We could perhaps blame the increase in GST, but we should also look at the NZ$ - we aren't a cheap destination anymore.The friends mentioned above probably spent $20 - $30k - for that sort of money I couldn't recommend NZ as a destination.
Hardly. Given that the single biggest cost is probably the airfare, which is unaffected by GST, and a lot of accomodation has not added any margin because of GST icrease, the overall difference is likely to be around 1%. Most visitors would be unlikely to even know or care that there has been a GST increase. Most likely factors are the world economy and our stronger currency.
NZ has never really been a "cheap" destination as the airline ticket from most of the world is obviously very expensive. and of course we don't want to be a "cheap" destination, that will only provide jobs at the minimum wage level, low profitability for companies and a high load on our environment and infrastructure for little real economic gain. The objective is to attract visitors that spend a reasonable amount of money while here - and in general this works well. While you say you couldn't recommend NZ for $20- 30k, many visitors do spend that and we get a very high satisfaction rating from surveys. Aside from the airfare, you certainly have to spend more money visiting Europe or North America than you do on holiday in NZ.
I'm inclined to agree - at least in theory. In practice clearly its not working for THL. In my neck of the woods I haven't seen the "high end" camper van people for the past few years - and this year they were pretty much non-existent. But the exponential growth of Wicked and Juicy has been huge - they are all over the place.
So what we aspire to provide balanced against what people want seems to be at odds. Clearly there is demand for low cost freedom comping. Its a great life because you get to travel, stay somewhere like queenstown and work in the tourism industry for minimum (cash) wage to fund your next set of stops. THL doesn't seem ot have grasped this volume market. Looks like they have also lost the high value market. Which doesn't leave them too many other places to go.
If we aren't attracting the high value customers should we be spendign money on the Hobbit if it just brings in more freedom campers?
Suppose the Forbar guru analyst Mercer who has had BUY and ACCUMULATE on thl will change it SELL now .... no never do that Rob thl is now a screaming buy .. esp when the US thing really starts bringing in the dosh as you reported back in December
Very ugly business.
Take a look at the depreciation in Y09 and Y10, then look at the massive difference in capital expenditure.
Seems like they are not spending enough to maintain their fleet of campers.
You have to ask how long can this happy state of affairs continue?
THL looking like the GM of NZ.
Anyone who knew the history of a company called Tranz Tours wouldn't touch THL with the proverbial.
A very similar company with camper vans and - in Tranz' case, tourist buses - caught out in the same way with a high capital cost and a sick business. In Tranz' case it was an oil shock in the 70's that caught them out.
History doesn't repeat exactly, but it offers some valuable lessons.
I think the problem with the high end market relates to economic conditions in key markets especially Europe. I hope and expect that this will return in the not too distant future. Jucy does a better job of marketing, at least to the low cost end of the market, and my guess is that they run a leaner operation that can make money at lower rates than thl. Wicked is not that big and I'm pretty sure they will be having a fairly bad season as they are based in Brisbane. Personally, I don't think thl should have tried to take on this end of the market given that their strategy seemed to be to try to undercut these guys on price. Wicked has pretty much got "low cost" down to a T.
More recently, thl have focused on launching new quality products and getting the details and service aspects of the business right. For instance look back at Snoopy's posts. If they get that right, they can do OK when the Europeans come back here spending money.
Speaking of juicy a while back they brought a tourist attraction , I think it was some sub thing in milford sounds? guess THL think their nuts because they decided none of this stuff was worthwile
hmm who has the right strategy?
Belgie-me-ole-mate, this is not the first time that THL has had problems with its camper van business.
It is bad business - 5 years of earnings wiped out in one bad season.
Downsizing does not really work as THL ends up with more competition as rivals use the opportunity to buy up the cheap vans and set up in competition.
Forbar has been a fan of THL since it was the Helicopter Line 20 years ago! Nothing new there.
Belg,
They have been launching some new campers called their platinum series but I think this is fleet replacement rather than expansion. As for RWC, because it is a one-off and of relatively short duration, you can't justify putting on extra vehicles specifically for RWC. The general expectation is that RWC will transform two fairly ordinary months into peak season turnover - where you get to use all of your fleet at summer rates rather than have most of them parked up.
For that reason I don't think they will want to reduce fleet size right now, except for the knackered old vans that are due for retirement in any event. It's just not a credible suggestion that they can de-fleet after February (when everything SHOULD be on the road) and re build in time for RWC. That process would require a whole lot of extra capital as the build cost for a new van will be a lot more than they would get for selling the old ones.
Part of this is cyclical, but there must obviously be structural issues as well. In a cyclical business you need to make good profits in good seasons, and THL has never really managed this. Other rental businesses have managed to grow, making good profits in good years and smaller profits (as opposed to losses) during the various crises.
As for the suggestion that they need to diversify - have they not just spent the last few years divesting themselves of non-core assets?
todays article in the stuff website http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/4638...-good-business
Hi bull,
In all fairness, THL hasn't said its RWC bookings were bad, just that this summer is a bit of a train wreck. I'm sure their bookings for RWC would be fine at this stage. Those comparisons of up 8000% are of course off a very low base - as this stage in a normal year you expect to have virtually nil forward bookings for September. Actually, it is still quite hard to work out just how good RWC will be - we really haven't had anything similar with which to compare. Spaceships and Jucy might just be taking the opportunity to put the boot in to THL while they are down. That could be viewed as fair repayment for some of the media releases made by THL's previous CEO that were not at all complimentary about most of the rental industry!
It's interesting to note the comments that Spaceships and Jucy have found the smaller/cheaper sleepervan type product is going relatively well. You would think in that case Explore More would be going OK for THL. Longer term, there may be a bit of an issue with this type of product (not self-contained). This is the type of vehicle that angers the locals when they freedom camp. They are supposed to be restricted to camp grounds and similar sites where there are toilet facilities.
The quality of tourism from China is improving, and will continue to do so as the Chinese become more experienced travelers and shift from bus trips to independent travel. That said, I can't see them taking up campervans in a big way, it just doesn't seem to appeal to that culture.
How often do we read this :
1. Businesses which adjust to changes in the market place thrive and prosper.
2. Businesses which can influence changes in the market also do well.
3. Businesses which are incapable of doing either 1 or 2 are incapable of delivering consistent returns.
THL must change its business model or continue to be the company it has been for the last 20 years - inconsistent returns.
As a side note, don't underestimate the damage done to NZ's image and to the campervan business of tourists being robbed, burgled, beaten, harassed and in some high profile cases, raped whilst driving around in camper vans in NZ.
http://emigratetonewzealand.wordpres...ervan-robbery/
I'm reading "Ogg" by Bob Jones. In this 2002 book, Bob postulates that many slightly older/refurbed hotels and airlines worldwide are so desperate for market share that there is huge churn, but little longterm profit in, either business. Just a whole lot of middle-class people viewing the lives of generally poorer people, tourism in a nutshell. Campervans being driven round NZ, when there are a lot of new competitors, surely fits this scenario - it's unlikely to be hugely profitable. SkyCity appear to have been very clever by comparison, spending some new capital on setting up the facilities for foreign high-rollers who think nothing of spending $500,000 on a gambling holiday.
Maybe more NZers will travel in campervans around NZ, once the cost of airline tickets more fairly reflects the lease and fuel expenses of a profitable airline. How could the campervan industry set itself up to be a safer, semi-guided and more reputable means of travel for the more likely tourists in the medium term, those from Asia? That might be a useful study.
Lower revenues and higher debt bit of a worry
Christchurch is turning into Campervan City. THL should be well placed to provide 10,000 - 40,000 people with temporary accommodation. If they aren't, they should be asking why not.
It would be very hard to realise the NTA in a sell off. There just isn't that big a market for campervans. Then you would have to exit leases etc in the winding down process. You have to assume it is being valued as a going concern.
I wonder how the independent valuation will come out. They won't be able to value it based on an earnings multiple! So I assume they will put a value on it based on forecasts and being "well placed for the recovery". The offer values the business at $66m. How much more would they be prepared to pay? Today the market says it wants $69m.
I believed THL were really undervalued as sub 75c. This especially given the big lift NZ tourism would get later this year with RWC. The general lift NZ inc. getting via increased profile with our hosting of many big budget movies in recent years and going forward.
This bid is a welcome sign for the recent purchasers- but very low and cheeky! I hope is flushes out some serious buyers.
Mine are on the block at 90c!
Hawke....soaring with the Eagles!
To Belg..
Smug prick.. :-)) But that is what it is all about Aye....
Hawke - you are dreaming if you want 90c! sell, now
Eh?! Are you in the market Hawke! wanna buy some!
I reckon there's 20% to come in the lead up to the rugger stoush...
And all you say is correct Belg.
I purchased my stake just after the banking issues recently. NTA backing that is on solid, easily disposed assets made it a low risk trade in the 60c range. My plan was a potential exit before Christmas at likely north of 75c - looked in my mind a likely outcome.
This T/O offer just made the whole this THL holding a hell of a lot more interesting with a lot more attention now focused on this just recently unloved puppy. I would think THL's pendng independent valuation will surprise many here on the upside - especially those who think my 90c ambitions are (now within short months) pie in the sky.
Go the campers!
We need to be careful with comparisons of EPS. THL was a very well diversified company with a lot of synergies up until a few years ago. The figures you quote (from 2002 and so on) came from a time when THL owned over 40 business (e.g., Milford's Red Boats, Kelly Tarlton, etc. etc.) They divested from those and now they are only a campervan operation plus a couple of attractions like Waitomo's. They sold those units to repay debt.
THL is a clear case of a value-destroying company. The recent TO offer is a very welcome development for those that plan to hold on to their shares. There is always the hope that, by having a majority shareholding, the new owner will kick out some of the directors and management (both of whom have been there for too long witnessing how investors got fleeced while pocketing significant salaries - just download the annual report and check!).
While THL shareholders got whacked over the past 8 years, Jucy kept on making inroads - so I don't buy the argument of cyclical stock for a minute.
I'll re-buy THL stock only when and if the TO succeeds. I may not be making as much as if I had entered a week ago but I'll have hope that the new oner will step in and stomp the cr*p out of everyone. If the TO does not proceed (likely because management issues a vote of no confidence), then the company will continue its perennial decline.
Buy yet again... it may end up like another Whitcoulls/Borders bought out by a private equity investment firm with no idea of what to do.
Here in Canada, there is a huge market for 2nd hand motorhomes. Perhaps the trick is to strip the assets out of THL and sell the vehicles in the North American market. I wouldn't shed a tear for THL if that were the case
So who is this person??.....
SSH: THL: SSH - (Gerard Thomas Ryan)
And is he only getting in before the potential takeover offer is raised or what?
Hawke.
Belg/Hawke - you guys in good company
Even the Forbar guru analyst says THL is trading below NTA and is cheap as
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10720441
Great minds eh
10c above the Ballylinch offer now. Does Gerard Ryan's disclosure mean that there may be more than one party interested in a takeover? Whichever way you look at it, it doesn't seem that 67.5c is going to buy a controlling stake for Ballylinch. Will they raise the offer by 10c?
ummmm!
Got my takeover offer in the mail today.
why would i want to respond to summat like that ...
bit of a waste of postage give the current market price.
Thanks for the chalkie link, Belgarion.
Amazing that $4m can just materalise out of thin air eh .... and things all of a sudden do not look that bad .... and the improved performance continues into next year
These guys sure have the finger on the pulse as to what is happening don't they .... maybe the takeover has woken them up
The up-graded forecast sure is welcome.
Are you comfortable with the 'thin air' source of the good news, winner?
It seems that the shaken citizens of Christchurch may well be due the credit, not any clever management strategies.
Thanks, mini. I'm pleased that the Christchurch people have proper housing.
Also, of course, it makes the upgrade seem more solid.
But again, I'd like further thoughts on the 'thin air' source of the recently found dosh for the upgrade.
Not surprising that things are a lot better than first thought .... when thl make their response to the takeover they will be able to use these new numbers to say too too cheap so make a decent offer or bugger off
Isn't it amazing how profits seem to suddenly improve once a takeover bid arrives in the mail .... happens quite a lot doesn't it
I wonder if the guys that did the valuation are filling their boots at the current market price of 70c? If not, why not? The problem with the valuation as I see it is that it kind of presumes that sooner or later they will make an economic return on the assets. The reality is that with RWC just around the corner, this should be a great year for thl - but the profit projections are underwhelming.
I tend to think that the on-going benefit from the RWC, for THL and NZ tourism generally, is a bit overblown.
Good for the current year and great for a few weeks but I doubt that the world at large will be greatly influenced to visit NZ as a result. Keen rugby types are already aware of what the country has to offer, in general terms. Those who make the trip will include a large proportion of "once in a life-time to the Southern Hemisphere" types who are unlikely to make repeat visits. To that extent it might be merely bringing forward a trip they would otherwise make at a later date. For the vast majority, the non-rugby world, the event will largely pass unnoticed, much like the Stanley Cup or the Aussie Rules grand final.
I don't hold THL - too capital-intensive for my liking - but I'd hope that they don't gear-up too much for this one-off event.
That's pretty much my point, belg.
Like it or not, rugby is very much a minority sport, even in many of the countries who will be appearing at the RWC, with the notable exceptions of NZ, SA and Wales. I'm not disputing that it will have a big effect, for a brief time, but IMO it's largely a case of preaching to the converted rather than bringing NZ to the world.
The last big rugby event was the Lions tour in 2005. The head honcho said this at the AGM late 2005
A few months later they announced reduced half year profits (and that Pickup was leaving) .... not one mention of the good support of the Lions supporters .... only lamenting the high NZ dollar, high fuel costs, downturn in the numebr of Japanese tourists and all the other excuses that thl are famous for.Quote:
The September quarter low season in New Zealand has been below our budget expectations with negative visitor growth from key Japanese and Asian markets, however Rentals New Zealand and Johnston's Coachlines did enjoy good support in the last three weeks of the Lions Rugby Tour in July.
Just sounds like the environment today .... surely not a rerun of another disppointing performance from thl
The EBIT multiples in the Simmonds valuation are way too high for this years projection (56 to 60.6) and for next year projection they are still very high at 12.3 to 14.1. I think those sort of multiples would normally be associated with a company with massive growth prospects. Also, next years figures are inflated by RWC revenues. A prudent purchaser would not be paying a big multiple for RWC revenues, they are a one off and should be normalised out going forward.
Gerard Ryan doesn't seem to have declared his hand yet. There was some speculation earlier that he might want to make a competing offer, perhpas closing CI Munro and manufacturing in Australia instead. As things stand it looks like the current takeover is going to fail, hard to see them getting enough shares for a majority and equally hard to see them raising the offer to within the valuation range.
Yes, now that the Ballylinch offer is dead Gerard Ryan might be about to show his hand. Is he prepared to pay significantly more than Ballylinch? If not, surely he will come up against the same obstacle - that thl is "worth" much more that the market says it is.
That seems a reasonable valuation. We are in unstable times and there are a number of global factrors working against tourism, so you might expect things to get better in future. On the other hand this 5.9m includes the one off RWC business, which I would think is significant for thl.
But then why did the Ballylinch offer fail? Why does the Simmons valuation come in at $100m? The sharehoders and the board must be figuring thl will double this NPAT within a couple of years.
hope this not one of their campervans
Letters: Unhappy campers
January 21, 2012 Read later
.
My partner and I mapped out a travel plan of New Zealand's South Island from Christchurch and selected a campervan. The staff at the Christchurch van hire company were friendly, helpful and took us through the van's workings. On day two the van suffered the first of its mechanical issues when it went into "limp mode" while we were coming up a pass near Queenstown. The problem was glowplug-related, based on the dashboard warning light. We made it to the west coast town of Haast. Sadly, the next day, 10 kilometres from Fox Glacier, both glowplug and engine management lights went on, again placing the van into limp mode. I applied all my knowledge of diesel vehicles but the van stayed in limp mode. We continued on to Fox Glacier rather than leave the van by the side of the road and hitch a ride.
We got to a petrol station where the staff were great but confirmed our fears: the van was going nowhere. We called the van company. Initially staff were helpful but once it was determined we would need a replacement van, it all became a bit too hard. The company did say we could stay in it at that location (very scenic and romantic next to the diesel pump and air hoses) but were not prepared to give an indemnity for me to continue to drive the van to the nearest camping ground.
Van staff then said they only had to supply a replacement van "subject to availability" and as there wasn't one available, that was their part of the deal satisfied. Did the company offer to help with accommodation, car hire, ongoing transport? No.
Advertisement: Story continues below
They did finally refund some money but it was not enough to cover the cost of our subsequent accommodation, car hire and bus fares or to compensate us for the food wastage. Our advice: ask detailed questions about recovery costs, replacement vehicles (and vehicle delivery times) before you hire. We do, however, recommend Fox Glacier township. Great people, great accommodation - and the bus trip to Hokitika, well, that's a life memory!
- Gary Kai
http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-...119-1q7wn.html
Hey Winner..
If this was true would you not name the company ??
You would have no reason not to..
I would.. With out fear of being sued..
THL is a dog. Motor homes are a dime a dozen. The NZ portfollio is like PRC and the city of Christchurch. It will take a long time to come right. Toooooooo long for me to wait.
Coalman you forgot NZO
Stop being sarcastic belg
You know they have about $300m in assets and that shareholders funds are about $150m and that such a pathetic return and that is why thl is trading at such a deep discount to NTA or book value
But why you are sooooooo excited is that a profit is a profit and that markets are forward looking at this is recovery stock if there ever was one .... shareprice .... up up and away methinks ..... even more potential form this point than FPA
I was disappointed that the report was a bit boring this year ..... none of this laying out all the disasters that have happened over the world that has affected their business .... maybe another year
In my view THL is still loosing money. Cash Flow is $3m negative that is if you leave out the $43m:scared: they claimed for depreciation.
Acid man ....... Trading cash flow was about 20m positive but they spent most of that on buying new stuff (capital)
Wouldn't call thl a cash cow
2011 they claimed $44m dep 2012 it's $43m. Capital spend 2011 $4.7m and 2012 $10.3m. How long can they keep doing this?
The conclusion I make is THL is deferring maintenance on it's PPE.:eek2:
If somebody offered 130 for them today Sam the Man would say it was a steal eh
But then I don't think Sam was in charge at Tower when they turned down 270 a few yaers ago and the deal didn't go ahead
Did I say THL was once 270 ... surely not ..... where's the 2 gone
Looks like only you interested belg .... go for it
Winner....I would have to check but me thinks I sold some in the high $5's.....The Helicopter Line went all the way from 40 cents ??? that was when Sir T Wallis used to own about 12 %.....ah they were the days...cheers
You have a good memory troy .... and then our mate Pickup got involved and the crooks from OZ were quite keen and drove the price up again in the mid 00's. One would have to say a bit of a dog eh .... long term investing (holding that is) is a bit of folly .... following fairly simple trends even THL has been profitable eh, one or major trends there ..... don't need to trade every week or month .... just follow the major trend
Maybe today is one of those times?
Anyway just for you troy
Sorry how remiss of me belg .... yesI agree if more tourists hire campervans THL should make more money.
Even though a few on this thread have pointed out in the past the more the campervans are used the more costly it is for thl and profits don't necessary increase
way beyond me all this .... bet some hoping that silliy aussies (who turned out to be a bit sort of dodgy plasying with other peoples money) offer 280 like they did a few years ago
Lousy business model - THL. Its business is highly seasonal, capital intensive and heavily dependent on a range of factors beyond its control and influence.
The company has tried every trick in the book to try and obtain sustainable non-capital intensive earnings but 20 plus years from listing, still struggles.
Think of THL as akin to the airline business and invest accordingly. It's a cyclical play - not a long term investment.
it seems no one has pick thl as a winner 2013,it seems good value for me.., any futher comment on THL
THL is still in difficult times due to the depressed state of the key European and North American visitor numbers into both NZ and Australia. Their Road Bear acquisition in North America might go well, but until those key markets come back profits are going to be thin in Australasia.
yes i agreed too, it is a very difficult market to operate at the moment.., but the merger should help.., if it is on forecast, it will be strong divideds comming forward..,not sure i am right..any further comments.., because i am still learning my investing
following the trend.., THL.seems bottom out.at around 50 cents, it is matter of time.., before it crack the dollar mark
Careful, goldie
5 years ago thl dropped from 240 to about 60 cents, and for the last four years its wobbled around 70 cps.
Not much of a cyclical play really, and definitely a poor buy and hold...
Happy New Year to all, Scamper.
Belgarion agrees that it is a " cyclical play ".. and very profitable too..
Tell me... Why is this the beginning of a new upward cycle ??
Hobbits ??.. Becoming " Old Hat " IMO..
More money to spare from EURO.. America ?..
China with their own Airline.. Own Charter Buses.. Selected points of stop.. Sleeping arrangements.. and Own Staff..
Australia.. ??.. Holidaying KIWI's.. Living with the Cussie Bros. Of all of our Nationalities..
Not much use there for a camper van..
Give me a good reason why Camper vans will be back in vogue Goldie.. :-)
Hobbit ramps up interest in travel to NZ
ELLE HUNT
Last updated 05:00 01/01/2013
Share
0
Industries
Wine company fails to have debt to parent firm set asideFuture of journalism looks pretty goodJudge critical of Talley's requestWartime pilot also fearless in businessReef Shipping taken over by US companyRangatira's new net goes fishingNatalie Portman most bankable Fans hand Hollywood record cashBoxing Day spending jumpsHellaby buys industrial services firm
Travel websites have reported significant growth in searches and bookings for New Zealand this month, after the worldwide release of The Hobbit.
The flight search website Sky scanner.com recorded a 102 per cent increase in worldwide searches for flights to New Zealand this month compared with December 2011, including a 117 per cent spike in searches for flights to Wellington.
The foreign currency exchange group Travelex has reported a 26 per cent increase in pre-orders for New Zealand dollars compared with December 2011.
Air New Zealand bookings from the United States were reported to have nearly doubled on the day before the November 28 world premiere in Wellington, and increased by a third in Japan after a Hobbit promotion there.
The worldwide tour operator Trailfinders, which has introduced a Hobbiton Express Day Tour from Auckland for 2013, has reported almost a 10 per cent increase in forward bookings to New Zealand for the new year.
Positively Wellington Tourism chief executive David Perks said he had noted a growth in interest in New Zealand as a travel destination in Britain, "and a much more positive vibe about bookings" since September.
He said the international media coverage of Wellington as a result of its hosting the premiere had increased the city's global profile, and this was expected to lead to a surge in bookings.
"We were really pleased how much coverage we achieved.
"We knew from when Wellington hosted the last Lord of the Rings premiere [The Return of the King in 2003] that coverage meant a significant surge in bookings, but we weren't sure how different global financial conditions would affect that.
"The indicators have been good since the noise around The Hobbit started to grow in September."
Tourism New Zealand spokeswoman Deborah Gray said there had been a surge in Hobbit-related searches on its newzealand.com website. Searches for "hobbit", "Hobbiton", "Lord of the Rings" and "Middle-earth" were up 265 per cent for November compared with the previous three-month average.
the main reason for me to buy THL is behind the merger.., that creates value for long term dividends.., it is not a growth story...but if they sucessfully integrated ., it provided a good income for dividend
but there is always a (but).., in experience.., not many company exercute well for merger.., such as....PVO CTL.disaster..., let's hope
another reason is the net tangible assets.., which if they can sucessful reduce the assets., it provide good cash to reduce debts or a greater dividends.....
An orderly reduction in fleet across the combined brands was one of the key drivers in the merger. I would assume any proceeds would go to reduce debt. I think share price and dividends will depend on earnings and my pick is that this year will not be a great result due to the decline in key market segments.
LOTR was a fantastic boost for visitation from those key markets and The Hobbit couldn't come at a better time from that point of view - maybe the next 2-3 years will show a recovery.
i am guessing share prices will start picking up after this full year results.., around august..
any idea of why thl big drop today
i think it is a good time to pick up some shares at 66 cents range..
The NTA is quite reasonable based on a willing buyer/willing seller rather than a firesale value. Of course you can't realise that value quickly or easily, else THL would have been broken up some time ago. If/when high value visitors come back in strong numbers, they might make an economic return on those assets - if they are still in good enough condition to rent at premium prices - or if the demand is so strong that there is no choice. But in the meantime, the value of the business as a going concern is far less than NTA.
forecast earning eps is about 6c..so PE is at 11 at the moment..but 2014 is forecasting 13.3c..which is pe at 5 for next year., if they can acheived it.., dividends might be at 10c next year..,