Tomorrow is Rakon's 1st anniversary as a listed company...?
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Tomorrow is Rakon's 1st anniversary as a listed company...?
Conference call is going well, cell phone manfs are going towards autonomous solutions supplying MOT [due to announce new prods this week}.
Moving manufacturing to China to reduce cost and to be close to manufactures and suppliers.
Work closely with customers to match supply with demand.
Competitors competing on price reducing margins.
High Kiwi dollar impacts on EBITDA around $1.5m per c. Full year 2008 forecast dollar rate is 68c.
No plans to list on NASDAQ.
Overall very positive, looks like they will continue to enjoy strong growth for a while yet.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4060389a13.html
Hooray!!:D
Now why have Fisher Funds reduced their holding in RAK from over 10% to just a little under? To remove a possible hindrance to someone mounting a takeover? Seems highly unlikely. They don't usually operate like this, or engage in selling off slivers by way of profit-taking, such is their faith in the future of the relatively small number of companies in which they invest. (For instance, I thought they might have reduced their holding of RYM to within their 20% self-imposed limit for any one stock, held by KFL, but I think they are still slightly over with that stock).
Anyone care to have a guess at what Carmel might be up to - preferably an educated guess!
Most unusual for KFL but FF reduced by about 1% not KFL necessarily. But my "guess" is freeing up funds for increasing FF stake in SLG which was rocketing up. Perhaps Carmel thought SLG appeared to have the better prospects at the time as a takeover.
Possibly a mistake in hindsite? [V]
Colin, I noticed the same.Rak and SLG make up the backbone of my portfolio. At a guess I would say they are removing a possible impediment to takeover [u]interest</u> rather than to any specific company or bid. A company like this is like all of us, keen o own a share of likely or possible takeovers.
A simple explanation is a little bit of portfolio rebalancing.
Come off it, Hairdresser. Conspiracy theories and crystal ball gazing are much more fun than common sense ;)
I had a call to buy some today from Craigs ...they had a placement to pass on...they must have got them at a good price probably about $5...I passed over ..have enough
Doesn't seem as though the size of this unwanted placement is too great, otherwise the market price would be depressed by the "overhang" effect. Presumably it was a true placement (from the earlier new share issue) and not just trying to find longer-term homes for the shares that Carmel has dumped?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by redzone
I had a call to buy some today from Craigs ...they had a placement to pass on...they must have got them at a good price probably about $5...I passed over ..have enough
This should hold the price down in the short term.
RAK
17/05/2007
RELINT
REL: 0845 HRS Rakon Limited
RELINT: RAK: Rakon Limited: Sale of shares by Director
Rakon Limited (NZX: RAK) announced that Peter Maire, director and shareholder
of the company today sought approval to sell approximately 1.6 million of the
16.5 million shares he holds in the company. Mr Maire plans to use the
proceeds to fund other investments he is involved with.
Mr Maire and the other incumbent shareholders entered an arrangement at the
time of the IPO in May 2006 whereby they agreed not to sell any shares in the
company until 30 days after the 2007 Full Year Earnings Release (which will
be 14 June 2007). That agreement was between those shareholders, the Company
and the Lead Manager of the IPO UBS New Zealand Limited. The agreement
allows for a waiver of the restrictions on selling.
The Board of Rakon and UBS after meeting today have concluded that given the
close proximity of the request to both the earnings announcement and end of
the restriction period, combined with the strong demand for Rakon's shares in
the market, that it is appropriate to waive this restriction. The
restriction will be lifted as from 8 am on Monday 21 May 2007.
Bryan Mogridge, Chairman of the Board confirmed that neither Mr Maire nor any
of the other directors intend to sell any further shares in the foreseeable
future.
Further information contact Bryan Mogridge on 021 931 355 or Brent Robinson
09 573 5554.
End CA:00147765 For:RAK Type:RELINT Time:2007-05-17:08:45:32
any ideas as to whether this parcel will trade privately in one go, and hence not really affect sp, or if this means market will be flooded (in which case it's time to go shopping!)
I think they will try and place it in one or a couple of hits,
Maire is obviously keen to get the cash asap [he didn't want to wait for the end of the 30 day embargo period before selling], so he would probably take a discount on the market price.
They would already have a buyer lined up and a price or he wouldn't be announcing.
I expect the price to remain capped as the firms that take the placement [below market] cash in on the arbitrage profits.
HD, Yes, that makes total sense. Thanks for explanation. I didn't think through the sequence of a firm taking placement and finding buyer.
Colin,FF might have been approached or have heard of this placement and wanted to reduce in advance? Is this insider trading?
I'll have to ponder that one. I think it could be viewed as "insider trading" only if they knew that the vendor was Peter Maire reducing his stake, given that the presence of Maire on the share register will have engendered confidence in many investors in RAK.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Treetops
Colin,FF might have been approached or have heard of this placement and wanted to reduce in advance? Is this insider trading?
Rebalancing is my pick also. ;)
The first two weeks in Nov 2006 were great for RAK (+15%) then the SP was sideways (ish) until Feb 2007.
Another great surge in the first couple of weeks (+26%)of Feb 2007 then sideways again (Shanghai Sling anyone?). Why not lock in some of this RAK SP gain. A 26% lift in RAK SP in a couple of weeks may change many portfolio dynamics.
The change in FFM SSH notice says the FFM reduction was from Feb to May 2007. This was when RAK SP was going sideways again. I don't see it as FFM dumping this stock. The change in FFM SSH was from 10.93% to 9.61% - they are still holders.
PS: With the profit increase 122% (from memory) I calculate that the PE will halve from the 50 (ish) that it was. If things track along like this then RAK looks fine. RAK looks scalable.
P/E's arent great for valuing growth stocks. You may like to look at the PEG. This is the P/E divided by earnings growth. If you assume 5 year earnings growth of 40% pa ie 120 next year and less in each subsequent year you end up with a PEG of around 1.25. Which doesn't look too expensive. ALso growth could be higher for 2008 as assumed USD x-rate is 70c they get an extra $1.5m of EBITDA for each c below 70c.
For comparison
Adobe 1.97
MSFT 1.49
AAPL 1.37
Intel 1.52
Motorola >5
Obviously PE's and PEG's are just headline type numbers but it seems to support potential price appreciation for Rakon.
Peter Maire's sell-down. This morning, appears that 1.6m shares crossed at $5.02.
hairdresser: ForBarr obviously don't agree with your PEG methods; they have downgraded RAK to a `reduce' because they think the stock is overvalued.
What was the reason for the downgrade? I don't recall them asking any questions on the CC.
I can't believe that no-one here has heard of PEG.
comment was to the effect `we think the price has got ahead of itself'. in other words, overvalued, a little irrational exuberance..
Thats why its now up to 526
I saw that comment too, my interpretation from anaylst speak to the English language was "we don't really understand why the SP has gone up, hopefully it will go down so we can buy some"
FYI the analysts had a visit to the factory after the CC, none of this has been reported, also Mr Maire had no trouble placing his 1.6m parcel following earnings.
IMO GPS will be pervasive in mobile devices in a few years.
Yes, we have heard of her, but we're not sure yet that the time has come to place RAK's PEG up there with Bill Gates' PEG - they're two different ladies, but time may well prove their close relationship - I would like to think so, for the sake of my small indirect interest via my holding in KFL.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by hairdresser
What was the reason for the downgrade? I don't recall them asking any questions on the CC.
I can't believe that no-one here has heard of PEG.
I think you missed the point, P/E is not good for valuing high growth stocks.
With RAK the high P/E may make the SP appear overvaled, but when you consider the explosive growth of RAK's markets it may not be as over valued as it appears.
There are not many growth stocks in NZ with solid markets and customers and high growth for a top 30 company in NZ is quite unique.
Its a bit of a moot point anyway as there is little in the way of coverage of RAK and what I have seen reported has just been a recycling of what the company has said anyway.
The ref to MSFT [and others] was for illustrative purposes only. You would hardly categorise MSFT as a high growth stock ie forecast 5 year EG of c30% is good but not really explosive. NB trailing PE of 22 forward PE of 18.
From KFL Newsletter re a overseas trip:
Warren gives us an update about Rakon, following his visit to the London headquarters of recently acquired subsidiary C-Mac.
In February, Rakon acquired a UK-based, crystal-quartz oscillator (CXO) manufacturer called C-Mac. Before this sounds so complicated as to make you stop reading - a reminder that a crystal-quartz oscillator is a shaving of quartz crystal that vibrates at a particular frequency when an electric current is applied to it. This frequency is picked up and used to tune into a radio signal. C-Macs technology is complementary to Rakon’s, with C-Macs CXOs used primarily in the telecommunications industry versus Rakon’s which are sold primarily to the consumer global positioning system (GPS) industry. Following this acquisition, Rakon has substantial intellectual property, manufacturing capability and relationships in the crystal oscillator market supplying the high growth cellular, WiMax and GPS infrastructure and device markets.
As with Rakon, C-Macs competitive advantage comes from miniaturization (of its frequency components) while achieving maximum specification and functionality. Miniaturization is of critical importance because it reduces power consumption, circuitry requirements and price. With this acquisition, Rakon has positioned itself well to capitalize on an exciting telecommunication market development in the coming years.
A key driver for C-Macs future growth is “triple play”. Triple-play is the term used to describe the technology for a single cellular base-station in the office or, even more exciting, the home, enabling wireless providers and others perhaps to provide additional services. Triple-play is being driven by network providers under pressure worldwide to both increase bandwidth to the consumer and from competing platforms/providers. Network providers are very keen for this technology to roll-out (as it has started to) as it will lock-in the subscriber for a bundled service. Rakon/C-Macs tiny CXOs are critical for the synchronization requirements of the base stations and indeed the only product which can meet the stability specification and the price required. Mass penetration akin to cell phone take-up “cannot happen without the lower cost CXO solution”. To finish with a tantalising quote from C-Macs Operations Manager, Phil Davies: “…if triple play takes off, this could be monstrous”.
Thanks for the info
Cheers
Hi Hairdresser - agree with your comments on PEG.
SP +8 today ...
p/e is relevant
the moment you say its not....thats when u get into trouble
however, it's the fwd p/e you need to worry about.
im focusing on FY09 earnings........
my f/cast is 0.30 cps....
for FY09
the price could afford to get to 6.50 before id think its overpriced
My apologies if I appear to you to have missed your point, Hairdresser, but my posting was probably a hasty reaction to your own rather hasty and seemingly superior conclusion that "no-one seemed to have heard of the use of Price/Earnings Growth (PEG) ratios". And I thought that you were trying to make the point that the PEG ratios indicated that RAK was still undervalued in comparison with giant, established enterprises such as Microsoft.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by hairdresser
I think you missed the point, P/E is not good for valuing high growth stocks.
With RAK the high P/E may make the SP appear overvaled, but when you consider the explosive growth of RAK's markets it may not be as over valued as it appears.
There are not many growth stocks in NZ with solid markets and customers and high growth for a top 30 company in NZ is quite unique.
Its a bit of a moot point anyway as there is little in the way of coverage of RAK and what I have seen reported has just been a recycling of what the company has said anyway.
The ref to MSFT [and others] was for illustrative purposes only. You would hardly categorise MSFT as a high growth stock ie forecast 5 year EG of c30% is good but not really explosive. NB trailing PE of 22 forward PE of 18.
But let's move on. I think most would agree that RAK seems to have an exciting future, but estimating forward earnings beyond say 12 months for "blue sky" enterprises such as this, with any degree of precision, seems a pretty futile exercise. RAK has come a long way in a relatively short time, but it is still a minnow on the world scene.
Forbarr recommend that RAK investors reduce their holding. Here are 10 reasons why such advice should be studiously ignored :-
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/RAK522002.gif
Rakon is in a steady uptrend - an uptrend that shows no hint, no sign whatsoever of any weakening. All of the indicators plotted here are very positive and all lie well clear of current price action. Make no mistake though - this uptrend will end. They all do. Holders should have some sort of exit strategy in place. Without a written selling plan you are blindly holding and hoping, vulnerable to any reversal and the misguided advice of others.
You are on a rocketship but this does not mean that you are going to the moon. You're not. Uptrends can last for years, but they ALL end.
Dead right, Phaedrus! Just ask Coca Cola. And its up another 8cps as I write. While your're at it, how about a few words of wisdom for the WDT cultists? - they need it.
Big spike on Rakon today - there are only 5 sellers at this moment..
Thanks you Phaedrus. I have learned to take ForBarr's recommendations with a hearty dosing of salt :D
And another big jump today!
:) Yes it looked good at midday.
It only finished at 552 up 3 and in the intraday chart and depth it dropped off from mostly 560 ish through the day to 275 shares at 552 at 1656.
Another deep breath and it's off again. Today 556 start, trickling climb, then one $80k trade at 566 at 4:30pm.
At 5:30pm $22k at 562.2
Volumes quite little since huge monday...so does this mean climb will ease off?
And again early morning at 579 on small volume but the interesting part is that there are buyers at 580 but no sellers below 585. In answer to tobo, I would suggest that this indicates that the climb will continue.I would dearly love to know where to set my exit price but for noe I am content to leave my head firmly buried in the sand even if it does mean that I may get my ar*e sunburned.
Things starting to look more realistic-will look to re-enter at around $5.00
Sell off on high dollar. each c it goes up reduces EBITDA by $1.5m. Now 5c above forecast rate and likely to stay up for a little while.
IMO the only thing that will help the NZD go down will be strength in the USD. There has been a little shorting in the NZD following this mornings RBNZ annoucment.
Craic, You say "I would dearly love to know where to set my exit price" Why? Why even attempt to set an exit price when nobody knows how far RAK will run? Say you bought at $3 and set your exit price at $4. Even though you would have "locked in" a good profit, what a mug you would have been! Lets your winners run. It's your losers that need a set exit price! It's called a Stoploss and is to limit your losses when you get it wrong. You wish you knew where to set a "StopGain"! You want to place a limit on your gains when you get it right? Don't do it. Don't even think about it.
"For now I am content to leave my head firmly buried in the sand" Why? Why would you want to ignore market reality? It's nothing to be afraid of. RAK is in a lovely linear uptrend. Nothing scary about that! Wouldn't you like to know if/when this uptrend ends, though? What is the point of purposely, willfully, remaining ignorant?
"..... even if it does mean that I may get my ar*e sunburned." Why? Why run this risk at all? Why not ensure that your derriere remains cool by monitoring the uptrend and selling when it ends? Why not use some of the 10 indicators that I kindly plotted here on 22/5/07? The use of any one of these would protect your nethers in the event of a reversal, locking in profits before you gave too much back to the market. You could even use them all if you wanted to, selling one tenth of your holding if/when each one triggers.
Craic, do us both a favour. Go back and re-read that 22/5 post. Nothing has changed.
?
Wow off nearly $1.00 from its highs is it all dollar related?
Wow off nearly $1.00 from its highs is it all dollar related?
No
Investors got carried away with it's impressive performance to date.
It's currently overpriced and is falling back to a more realistic level.
Rakon's growth rate is averaging 80% at present so I would not expect the shareprice to stay down for very long before it heads north once again.
Disc: hold RAK and accumulating
Hoop, Whats the target price (on the down side?)
Hoop, Whats the target price (on the down side?)
Target price $ 4.50 - $4.91 give or take a few cents.
Bear with me Whatsup that I am a long term investor which dabbles in short term investment to relieve the boredom so my technical expertise is very basic and I do most of my calculations in my head.
I will give you the formula of how I worked it out and perhaps you can refine on it, or perhaps a more sophisticated FA or TA person can enlighten us both.
[u]Using basic FA</u>
TP = forecast eps X expected P/E
EPS in 2006 5.5cps 31/3/07 9.7cps The latest annual report the forecast 80% increase in profit with little increase in share numbers(ignored) 2008 E 17.5cps
I divided (17.5 - 9.7 = Approx 8) / 4 = 2cps which are quarterly figures.
I can now figure out end June 2007 EPS 9.7 + 2 = E11.7cps
The expected P/E is a problem as Rakon is a new breed of animal it has only 2 figures to work out an average or a median or some other average in an trending pattern, so the P/E could be less accurate than we wish it to be. Do not be put off by the high P/E as this is common in fast growing stocks.
Working out P/E at IPO launch...price $2.30 / 5.5cps = 41.8
As at 31/3/07...................price $4.90 / 9.7cps = 50.5
I will use the conservative P/E of 42
Target price as of 30 June 2007 is 11.7cps x P/E 42 = [u]$4.91**</u>
**Forecast 80% increase in profit is based on calculations using NZ$ = US70c (Annual Report). I have no idea what the effect of NZ$1=US78c but I will assume 80% is now 50% increase because it is easy for me to work out. Instead of 2cps a quarter it is now 1cps a quarter
Target price 30/6/07 9.7 + 1 = 10.7 x 42 = $4.50 ($NZ1 = US78c)
This price is good enough for me I bought more RAK today at $4.72:D:D
As you see the approx targets at the end of September is between $4.90 - $5.71. So I expect the drop in share price will be short lived even with the NZ/US @ 78c. Assuming all the other variables remain the same, in 6 months time the SP should theoretically be approx 10-15% higher than now. If not it will become an undervalued stock.
Hope this helps
Hoop
Which brokerage firm kept all its Rakon allocation for itself?
Christopher Niesche in today's Herald says:
If you were lucky enough to get Rakon shares in the initial public offering, you would have done very well indeed - the $1.60 shares issued by the GPS chip company are now trading above $5.
But if you were unlucky enough to be a client of one particular brokerage you wouldn't have got any Rakon shares at all. This brokerage was given an allocation of Rakon shares to apportion out to clients but decided - in breach of NZX rules - to keep all the shares for itself.
So the capital gain of more than 200 per cent on Rakon shares went to the brokers and the poor unsuspecting clients got nothing.
The brokerage argues that it was given such a small parcel of Rakon shares that it wasn't worth breaking it up and handing out.
But it should have been up to individual clients to decide whether a small parcel of Rakon shares wasn't worth bothering with. What small investor would complain about, say, a $2000 capital gain on an initial $1000 investment?
Full story - which is worth a read - is here:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10450186
If everyone that got an allocation from their broker posted the brokers name here, we could probably work out who the culprit was.
I think that Phaedrus makes an excellent suggestion, that way we could use the forum to uncover the mystery, yet nobody would be in trouble because there would be no mention of the culprit. However this will only work on the assumption that: ALL OF THE NZX REGISTERED BROKERS WERE ALLOCATED SHARES AT IPO. Can anyone confirm or deny that this is the case, that might be the best starting point.
FG
TH,
So your point is that we should know but we don't know.
Phaedrus suggested a way that we can find out ourselves.
Thus there is nothing un-excellent about Phaedrus' idea.
TH, do you propose an alternative means of bring the truth to the top or was it just a general whinge about the state of the NZX?
For what it's worth I sent an e-mail to NZX to express my absolute disgust with the fact that these brokers have not been named...
Unsurprisingly, I have not received a reply, but maybe if everyone else sends them an e-mail or snail mail they'd get the message that this is just not good enough!
TH, I sent my e-mail very soon after I first read about it on the NZ Herald's web-site... I think it was Wednesday morning...
TH, not at all - you did after all articulate it here... I didn't think of doing that :o)
Anyway, as I said - maybe a large number of complaints will make them change their minds (I doubt it tho...)....
A bit more pressure put on the NZX to disclose the culprits
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4120703a13.html
If you know with certainty the name or names of the firms fined, you may publish it here without comment and without fear of repercussion. It's only a problem if you get it wrong or make comments that could be challenged.
The hog suggests people here ask their broker whether it was them or not, and publish the responses here. Something like "I asked xyz and they said abc".
Then when it does come to light who the broker was, it will be laid bare for you to see whether or not your broker was straight with you or not.
Would they dare be economical with the truth and risk being exposed?
Ooooh! Just wot I like a bit of mystery.
My pick is Mrs Plum in the Broom Cupboard with the Candlestick...:D
NZD and RAK
The high dollar should not impact RAK too much, they are currently investing offshore [in USD] so they will not be repatriating much currency into NZD, ie much less than their EBITDA figure. While they will be taking a paper hit on profit, in terms of cash it should not affect them too much.
This is nothing new. Brokers do this all the time. All the good floats is given to their favourite clients and themselves. The small guys get F all. The best way is to have no firm allocation and just public pool where everyone has to bid for the IPO stock.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Hoop
A bit more pressure put on the NZX to disclose the culprits
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4120703a13.html
Read the other day in the NBR that Rakon has now three offices in China, and is set to announce a move to produce its products in china. Aparently they are to confirm this before the meeting this friday.
With the depreciating doller how come we have not seen an increase in Rakon. Currently experiencing some sideways movement but we are not far from the trend line. Anyone have any views on Rakon at the momment?
Lets see
My guess is it is one of the following 4 options:
1. They have a 60% market share of a rapidly growing global market
2. They have a leadership postion in terms of the technology.
3. They are shifting manufacturing to a low cost production environment.
4. They are listed on the NZX.
Seriuosly though, they are the only company of its type listed here and I just don't think the analysts and instituions really get it. Unfortunately this probably won't change in the near term...
Cheers
get what
its trading on a massive p/e and sure growth is good, but not that good.
plenty of other tech coy's out there cheaper than RAK
i like RAK, and one day it may well be $10
but right now its expensive
Footsie you obviously don't get it either. Why am I not surprised.
hairdresser
You dont have to limit yourself to the NZ market you know
Footsie, I thinks that the point............. what is the definition of a NZ company on a NZ share register . RAK would fail on most accounts apart from being founded in NZ by New Zealanders.
What percentage of RAK product is sold to the NZ market???
Personally I do not care what register a company is on.
My graphing skills are not great but Rakon seems to be following very closely to the trendline, just had a look at the market depth and is their a possibilty the Rak could break the uphill trend line. Maybe someone could please post an accurate graph. Cheers.
AB, Rakon has been in a "trading range" for about 3 months so far - though in this case, the band is too narrow to trade.
A break above Resistance would be a Buy signal.
A break below Support would be a Sell signal.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/RAK925.gif
Phaedrus, do you mostly use lines for your charts or just on the forum to make them easier to understand?
I have found it easier to get the highs and/or lows using lines to draw trendlines etc.
Keep up the good work in any case.
The charts that I post are mostly cut-down versions of what I use myself. If you try to put too much info into posted charts they can get very cluttered.
Thanks for the picture Phaedrus.
Are you still trading on the US markets?
I'm having my best month yet on the NAZ. I currently am holding 3 in the money trades and 2 out of the money trades.
AAPL and GOOG are pretty strong at the moment but I am mainly trading the semis.
PS this link sort of explains why I like RAK.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/21013917/
ie phenominal growth potetential for moble devices, google maps etc
Plus the 60% global market share and technology leading position for RAK.
It's a pity I work there, means I can't share what I know ;)
He is bound to have shares under the employer scheme. He's been scared off so probaly wont reply. The only hint of information that we can gather is the 'wink' at the end. At least its not a sad face. Alkie if your out their and to shy to reply just reply is face language.
No, this was not an invitation to probe, or an act of shyness in not replying.
I am on the road a lot so don't get a lot of time to look at these boards every day.
The main reason for writing this is it's sort of like when you know the answer to a riddle and everyone keeps guessing, but you can't tell. I have read some of the comments on this thread, and just find it interesting, sometimes funny, to see what people outside the company think.
Take from it what you will, it's all fun and games.
Oh and the wink - meant nothing by it, so I think that is being read into far too deep
Quote from Alkie
...The main reason for writing this is it's sort of like when you know the answer to a riddle and everyone keeps guessing, but you can't tell. I have read some of the comments on this thread, and just find it interesting, sometimes funny, to see what people outside the company think.
Take from it what you will, it's all fun and games.......
When the company gives out only limited information, us investors have to invest our money through good faith and to deduct from what limited amount of information we have been given from, the market place, commentators, rumours, and other outside sources, together with what the official information the company gives us.
Often when analyzing all this data to get a meaningful deduction, if a part of the data is wrong we will usually get an erroneous deduction to some degree....I don't find this particularly funny as money can be lost if the deduction is seriously flawed.
As you claim to be an insider Alkie, I find your attitude to all investors disturbing, not to mention the risk you take by posting cryptic comments on an investor forum which can be taken in many such ways.
It may be funny and games to you but to some people through their investing, it is their only income, whether it be a trader, Mum & Dad passive investor, or Superannuation account.
I think you should learn to respect all markets and the people involved within them....because without markets your job wouldn't exist.
I'm with Hoop here.
The last thing this site needs is insiders making cryptic comments.
Disc. Not holding.
With $60,000 invested in RAK I am happy to hear from Alkie or anyone else who tells me that "Gods in his Heaven and alls well with the world" - at least his world. If you lose your shirt listening to other peoples advice then look at it this way - it wasn't really your shirt in the first place. Hoop and Mc duffy - lighten up, there is more fantasy here than at Walt disney,s studios.
Link for Nokia purchase of mapping software NAVTEQ compnay.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...y3o&refer=home
Toddy: The other thing that makes it difficult is knowning exactly who Rakon's customers are. They don't detail this in their annual report (well, the one they have made to the NZX ;)) They give an indication of production volume from their end, but are we to think that if you smash open a Nokia or Motorola or TomTom product there will be a Rakon device in it?
What is Rakon's global market share of the products they specialise in?
The question I am asking is: All very well to point to trends in hand-held devices, but what slice of the pie will come RAK's way?
Alkin is probably one of those underpaid engineers who works for Rakon / Fisher and Paykel etc
Motorola is one of their biggest customers, they sell loads of xtals to them. Motorola keeps buying of them as they have the ASIC temperature controlled ic that fine tunes the xtals. Other manufactures are catching up to this technology.
the new GPS transceiver will make this company big, if they stuck a big deal with one of the phone manufacturers as it GPS is compulsory from 2010 in all mobile phones.
http://www.rakon.co.nz/whatsnew/disp...&template=news
Other than that as per my understanding margin on xtal products are dropping as there is lot of competition from Asia for tcxos, vcos. They have dropped few products lines as they were not profitable anymore. Rakon source dropped products from 3rd parties for interested customers.
Perhaps Alkie could say who exactly Rakon sells to? I can't imagine this is commercially sensitive -- only the financial details of those arrangements would be.
Or is it the case that Rakon sells into a wholesale-type arrangement and its bits and bobs end up in lots and lots and lots of different makers' products?
Been nervously :(:( watching RAK lately flirting with it's long term uptrend line..
Intraday price I know but at 492 cents has just nudged above it's 3 months trading range of 470 - 490 cent. I am now slightly more :):)
Disc: Hold RAK
Edit: 1/2 year results due early next month
Hi Hoop,
I have been watching RAK too - to me RAK is looking better now
the industry trend is good with nav phones
Question is when the big growth kicks in over the next few years who will get the big contracts and $$$
Like the All Blacks there are no guarantees but RAK is in with a show
This may sound crazy but I spent hours yesterday looking for a cheap gps that would function in Hawke Bay (on my boat) then I realised that I have 12,000+ RAK shares and maybe one of you know. A - will a car system work with a marine card/chip? or do I have to pay about $1,400 for the cheapest one from a boat shop? Bit off the subject but its 5.50am and the day is dragging on. Email will do.
Hi Craic,
Yes a car one will work on the boat but the `street finder' function doesn't work so well out at sea. Keep the boat on the trailer round town, it'll be fine.
Cheers
Placebo
RAKONS RESPONSE TO THE NOKIA / NAVTEQ AQUISITION (NOTE THE BIT THAT SAYS THEY ARE USED IN THE BLACKBERRY AND 'USED' TO BE WITH NOKIA)
Nokia deal hastens GPS for cellphones - Rakon
By TOM PULLAR-STRECKER, AP - The Dominion Post | Monday, 8 October 2007
Rakon says Nokia's US$8.1 billion acquisition of US-based electronic mapping firm Navteq may mean GPS transceivers find their way into more cellphones faster, creating a larger market for its precision crystal components.
Marketing manager Justin Maloney says the takeover shows that Nokia expects to incorporate mapping applications into its cellphones as part of its core business.
"That is very good news for the entire location-based services industry. It is going to encourage a lot of other hardware vendors to start taking it seriously.
"It reaffirms what we and a lot of other people have been saying – that location-based services is just a matter of 'when' – and I think the 'when' just got a lot closer. We are feeling pretty buoyed by it."
A trailblazer of the digital map business, Navteq produces the maps and software found in car navigation systems, portable navigation devices made by Garmin and other companies and Internet map sites. Founded in 1985 and profitable since 2002, it has 3000 employees in 30 countries.
Analysts say the Navteq acquisition is likely to bring forward the day when GPS-capable cellphones are widely used by consumers.
"This cements Nokia's push into navigation," says Mark McKechnie, an American Technology Research analyst.
"As the leader in the cellphone business, they want to see more and more functionality get into the handset – taking the turn-by-turn directions, for example, and moving them from high-priced car applications to applications that fit in your pocket."
Research firm Ovum says Nokia's vision is "very ambitious".
Rakon is reported to be supplying components to Research In Motion for use in its GPS-enabled Blackberry 8800 phones.
Mr Maloney says Nokia has been a customer of Rakon in the past. Nokia has so far included GPS in a few expensive handsets, such as its high-end N95 smartphone, but Mr Maloney would not say whether these used Rakon's products.
"What I can say is they are a company we are in discussions with. We visit them and we consider them a valuable partner. But in the mobile handset space in general, the volumes haven't really been there."
Rakon will begin volume production of crystal oscillators measuring just 2.5 millimetres by 2.0 millimetres later this year, targeting the cellphone market.
Mr Maloney says the cost and power consumption of GPS transceivers are a barrier to their use in cellphones, but Rakon is well positioned with its technology to supply the market.
Dick Smith needs to upgrade staff. Finished up getting a Lowrance Global Map GPS 4800 by email (and post) from an outfit in New York for less than half of the price asked locally. DS had a hand-held that I would have bought had the salesperson known what i was talking about. Why is NZ at the top and at the bottom electronically with nothing in between.
Chart for RAK looking good with a confirmed close and open above resistance at about 4.92. I am in with a CFD long. Entry 5.00, SL @ 4.68, target 5.60.
Any constructive thoughts good or bad on this trade?
Seems to be a fair bit of volume - I would do the same if Marketmaker did not totally confuse me.
RAK has been firing Buy signals since 9/10/07. These are marked by green arrows, with the big green arrow marking the trading range breakout mentioned by Hoags.
The bar graph along the bottom of the chart shows volume. Up days are green, Down days are red. You can see that while volume is slightly above average, it is still lower than other peaks over the trading range.
The signals from the 5 separate systems shown here correlate very well, with both their Buy and their Sell signals agreeing closely.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/RAK1018.gif
Yahoo!
Although my delight is tempered by seeing FBU down a further 2% today. Thus keeping my portfolio in perfect balance...
Why is there always a ying for every yang?? :(
Great. Thanks for the chart Phaedrus, I tried to post one (albeit with a few less indicators) but I cant seem to reduce a pic to under the 30kb limit without it becoming unreadable. Anyway RAK doing nicely today. Cheers.
Had a look at depth and all the pressure seems upwards.
Hoags, If you use .gif images instead of .jpg your file size would be a lot smaller and your chart clearer. The RAK chart here was less than 20kb, for example.