closed at 112 pips
too hot for me, will look to re-enter lower
Cheers
Slam
Printable View
closed at 112 pips
too hot for me, will look to re-enter lower
Cheers
Slam
Perhaps Mr Gann will assist..........
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/020106_gbp.usd_115.gif
arco
and given their similarity this would apply to Eur as well?
Tho Eur/GBP has been going down over last week or so (my demo a/c is +50 on that pair... ) so perhaps GBP would be the better option.
Hi Peat
Yes it certainly looks that way with last nights turn on multiple supports
regards - arco
Hi all
Nice bounce of the 61.8 fib 30th low/1st high last night
Lets see if it keeps going
Cheers
Slam
I mentioned Friday that there looked to be a butterfly developing for a trip north. Hindsight is wonderful of course, and I was expecting the African nipple pink-tit to fly, when in fact the pesky ol' cabbage white was lurking, with its right wing delayed 24 hours by consolidation ahead of Non Farm payrolls.....bah, tsk tsk
http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/7218/gbp9ml.png
May not be far off completion tho, at 127.2% - watching, with net in hand....
Xerof
Possibility of completion of that pesky cabbage white butterfly last evening, with quite a nice turn just a fraction below the 127.2% level.
Netted some today at 17445 with a s/l at 17405.
C wot happins
Xerof
Hangin in by the skin of me teef [xx(][xx(] with 08 offered not quite good enough to trigger my 'stop if 05 offered'. But may be gone by morning. [B)] Have faith in the cabbage white....
g'nite
Xerof
I'm wondering if this may be a valid Crab? to watch??
http://img60.imageshack.us/img60/5944/gbpusd5qb.jpg
Yes, and since you posted its moved a bit lower. Did you take the trade?
I see the hallmarks of Vegas Wealth Builder too!
Xerof
Sadly I didn't trade enough make me happy Xerof. <LOL>
Vegas' system has great visual merit. It helps anyway.
Note how quickly one can also learn to adapt previously undiscovered indicators like Camarilla Levels to good purpose. :)
I'm getting accustomed to a better flexibility in trade strategies and... I've only just discovered the metatrader.org site (amongst others).
Sulman
Not quite a Butterfly but seems to have taken.
http://img462.imageshack.us/img462/9...pusd27a0lr.jpg
Weekly prints an interesting Blue Morpho
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/061006_gbp.usd_w.gif
Its a wet day on the Sunshine Coast, so with a bit of time on my hands heres my possible EW count on the weekly GBP.
http://detachedtrader.com/forum/inde...ype=post&id=42
regards - arco
Hi All
went long this morning on this pair,8662-stop 8614 looking for a reversal
reason for probable trade
>boucing off Gann support.
>DOji
>bouncing off medium term trend line
>50%fib level
cheers cadet roddy
Hi Roddy
Looks like you should be doing OK with this one.
I mentioned on the JPY thread that a big move in GBP was about to happen, and that gave circa 160 pips so far.
Further confirmations now given on the EOD with a Morning Star off Gann support and the uptrend line. Bit of possible hesitation to watch for circa 8800 coupled with the oscillator still being below the mid line.
regards - arco
Hi Arco,
i exited trade at 8738 for 76 pips, waiting to see which way its going to go on the 15 min chart,a wedge is forming, i see the Morning star (bottom reversal pattern) but not until you mentioned it.
Also straddled kiwi announcement was filled at 6427 i could of exited near 6454 but thought it would reverse possibly 15 pip then find support which never happened,
possible reasons could be
> kiwi is weak at the moment as there was no follow through after retail trade was up .5%
>Gann fan says resistance is at 6450
>havent seen a close above medium term trend line
>possibly might be seeing a falling three pattern emerging
>not sure whether straddle is a good strategy or not?and i executed it poorly
however no damage done with stop being hit!
still polishing boots.
cadet roddy
Hi
Rentered long trade looks like an ascending triangle is forming on the 5 and 15 min chart also medium trend line is support
cheers cadet roddy
hi
out of trade,GBP has broken trend line,
have been away from desk so missed 60 level,but
have 84 pip over the two trades
cheers cadet roddy
Follow on from 12/9..............
GBP still bearing fruit with a max of circa 310 pips so far.
Some profit taken off the table, and trailing stop on balance.
Hoping for more in the short/medium term.
GTA - arco
Hi Arco,
Yes i jumped on the trend last night in at 8774 and out 8860, took half profit and left a traling stop but was to stingy with trailing stop
so of available 310 have taken 168 pip so far.
cheers cadet roddy
Hi all
GBP looking a little toppy with 2 Doji eod any thoughts on a possible short as it has just dropped below 1.9000 levels
cheers cadet
Hi Roddy
Certainly looks a bit black if the EOD stays as it is now. However, that will require a check of the final print tomorrow AM for confirmation. I will be considering longer term trades at that point.
Other than that I had a short term scalping signal @ 8990 which was good for circa 48 pips............
regards - arco
Hi Arco
o- kay will await tomorrows print.
great trading on the scalp and cheeky trade(kiwi),any thoughts of moving to Havelock,
where yourself and xerof could expand the butterfly farm while exchanging vintages!
cheers cadet roddy
Theres an area of possible Gann support circa 8541-8555
May be worth watching for a possible reversal pattern
around that level.
regards - arco
I mentioned this possibility on the 11th
Gann calcs working well again, although it took awhile to build up the base for an explosive move north overnight
+95 (Averaged)
GTA - arco
Closed 50% off last night at +170,
balance currently +144
U.K. Third-Quarter Expansion Was Faster Than Expected (Bloomberg)
``Manufacturing and industrial production have bounced a bit and services are reasonably buoyant as well,'' said Robin Marshall, an economist at Smith and Williamson Investment Management, which has assets of about $15 billion. ``The rate increase in November is a done deal.''
Bit late mate........the charts told us well prior to your announcment ;)
Morning All
Last nights long entry (mentioned on the EUR thread)just
missed my 50 pip target by 5 pips as I slept blissfully unaware [V],
- however, still showing +21 at the moment.
regards - arco
Eur/Gbp slipped overnite so yours definitely was the better option. However I am still hanging in on the Eur Long
This was how I calculated my fibs I referred to y'day
http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/1...3052007of4.jpg
Daily FX
British Pound: Strong Gains after BoE Contemplates 25 or 50
Wednesday May 23, 5:34 pm ET
By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com
The British pound is the story of the day as hawkish minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting spurs across the board gains in the currency pair. Given the recent weakness in UK economic data, the market had anticipated tepid comments from the central bank. The general belief was that the Bank of England did not want to do anything that would take the country?s exchange rate beyond 2.0. However instead of contemplating a 25bp hike versus no hike, the central bank actually debated 25 versus 50. Even though the members voted unanimously in favor of a quarter point hike, the fact that they were considering more versus less was enough to bring some bulls back into the market. More specifically, the BoE said that there is a "high probability of another rise later in the year." The last part of this statement suggests that June may be too early to expect another move, especially given the recent pieces of economic data. Therefore even though we could see further pound strength, the rally could be limited.
These seasonal charts from www.seasonalcharts.com may come in helpful.........
http://www.seasonalcharts.com/future...i/bp/chart.gif
http://www.seasonalcharts.com/future...i/bp/chart.gif
Maybe we will see Cable fall towards the Gann area
9533 - especially if the Butterflies are in a good mood.
arco
http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Bl...ies/coffee.gif
Cable could be lining up now for a short IMO....
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v5...61907Cable.gif
arco
yeh at 1.9845 its moved back to a 62% retracement of its fall from 1.9970 (to 1.9620) and this is also a 261% fib extn of its first move up from 1.9620 to 1.9708.
It reminds me of the Eur/Jpy post I made on 10/05.
Only thought was , noticing that Eur is in a similar formation to GBD - so if we assume that will short as well , and yet you (Arco) are short USD/Chf which generally moves opposite to Eur. So just wondering about the conflicting scenarios here. Maybe you're talking different time frames tho.
Hi Peat
The Swissy trade went slightly over target at the outset, although I did manage to scale my way into eventually averaging a profitable position.
As mentioned last week it was always intended to be a short term wave trade, and happily I've now closed all positions with an acceptable profit.
regards - arco
Nice......the Gann reversal point worked in good fashion.....
nice back lash at 9858 for a quick 20+/- pips scalp.
..and thats how the Swissy trade should have worked.
soo Mr Gann does cloud surfing ! Gann Ten.
Gann meets Ichimoku - a powerful combination :D
At the end of the day, when many indicators tell the
same story its pretty good confirmation.
you were using a daily chart to scalp 20 pips tho?
Hi Peat
The Gann calcs are taken from daily chart,
- entry confirmation lower time frames (15m-30m chart).
In this case........
Double Top with almost a Bear Engulf on 15 min and
Double Top with DCC on 30 min.
Both outside the BBs and with divergence on Oscs.
Scalping is only secondary to the main idea of
taking the long pip trip, but it keeps the mind
active.
arco
Hello All
Todays Gann resistance calc based on yesterdays EOD comes in at 9901.
And circa 9923 is probably the highest the action can
print to form a bearish Gartley pattern.
Therefore, still waiting for a confirmation reversal pattern
to see if a longer term short is in the making.
regards - arco
Hi All
The new Gann calc for today is 9918, so with Cable currently being
supported by that, and if it remains above, the polarity has changed.
(i.e resistance=support)
Also considering Gartleys are notorious for growing into Butterflies,
it pays to be very cautious around a Gartley set-up before commiting
to a trade.
The next major Gann resistance is today sitting at 2.009 and a trip to
this area would create the Butterfly circa Fib1272/1618 and thats where I will look for a reversal pattern to appear (if it gets in that area).
So today may give some day trading opportunities to the north, and
these could be based on any bullish patterns appearing off Gann 9918.
I will re-evaluate south bound targets when a bearish reversal appears
because the Jan-April Butterfly harmonics may change depending on how
high the current action goes.
regards -arco
watching......... to see if this daily bullish bat may hit the 618 retracement before
reversing , big weekly butterfly in progress.
Northern Rock has borrowed GBP5billion ex the BoE's discount window - causing some selling off in Cable as risk aversion in the UK reignites.
short in progress at 20500 this could be start of abc correction
to around 20250
but got to watch possibilty of 5th wave extension to 20600
Hi DB
I havent discounted the possibility that the shape
could turn out to be an unusual Gartley with B618/D886.
rgds - arco
evening arco
it certainly reversed right on 886 so batty thing could be in play
thats why i felt this was worth a short but still reckon may run 206 before reversal
still grinding higher towards 2.0550 - 2.0600
for short
well.... here goes short 20574 gbp
long usd cad 9582
DB
What are you basing your entries on?
....and where are your stops and targets?
rgds - arco
morning arco , i cant post chart at the moment i bailed on the gbpusd hourlies printed a tweezer bottom around about 9 ish last night i think
ill post a lot more detail later
usd cad still running butterfly entry sl high 94s target 98 ish i think
wave count based trade
sorry its such a crap reply , kind of hard to respond without charts will post later
Interesting correlation play.
John Jagerson has mentioned there to be a surprising correlation between oil stocks like BP and the GBP/USD.
He states 'They are both influenced by oil prices and can be used in intermarket analysis. If I see a breakout in one that is not reflected in the other - it is a trading signal. A great example was the break above resistance on BP last week that made me think the GBP/USD would be more likely to break through its July resistance level.'
Check it out yourself in the chart below.
http://www.pfxglobal.com/images/john/10302007bp.png
just just possible top in , butterfly 127 at 20900
small short at 20860 on , adding at 20820 for the much anticipated abc correction to 20570 first target.
Can the dollar push this thing back below its weekly resistance.... I guess we'll find out in the next 9 hours...
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z...jhu32/gbp2.gif
from ew perspective
in a B wave of an ABC correction of a larger 4th wave
safest possible trade would be the C wave as it takes out A wave low 20522
if 20250 area was breached (4 th wave level of previous impulse wave) then could be a deeper correction as lower channel would be breached
you could pick the top of current B wave and then ride the C wave all the way down
of course always an alternate count going on
wave 3 is smaller than both waves1 and 5 tho
a no no in elliot wave theory.
not that I'm any good at EW DA, but I do know the rule that says wave 3 must not be the smallest
im not sure what your getting at peat
you may be interpreting the wave degree wrong i will post with bigger text
oic
my mistake i was confusing eg (1 ) with 1
as you were !
just a note on the chart posted the critical level for the 4th wave retracement is 20370 as wave 4 can not overlap wave 1
DB
On your previous chart I notice your wave three in the smaller count is shorter than 5, which does not follow the EW rules. I show here an alternative possibility for consideration.
rgds - arco
3 doesn't have to be longest just not the shortest
but your count is a possibilty ,wave 2 is more often a zig zag rather yours is a complex
very subjective really
Yes the EW rules are very complex and Neelys interpretation is different to Prechter.
Impulse Rules: An Impulse is a five Wave pattern labeled 1-2-3-4-5 moving in the direction of the larger trend. It is the most common Elliott Wave pattern.Full set here
- Wave 1 must be an Impulse or a Leading Diagonal.
- Wave 2 may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle.
- No part of Wave 2 can more than retrace Wave 1.
- Wave 2 must retrace Wave 1 by a minimum of 20%.
- The maximum time for Wave 2 is nine times Wave 1.
- Wave 3 must be an Impulse.
- Wave 3 must be longer than Wave 2 in gross distance by price.
- The gross price movement of Wave 2 must be greater than either Wave 2 of Wave 1 or Wave 4 of Wave 1. The gross price movement of Wave 2 must also be greater than either Wave 2 of Wave 3 or Wave 4 of Wave 3. Wave 2 must also be greater than 61.8% of the gross movement of each of the above 4 sub-Waves.
- Wave 3 and Wave 1 cannot both have 5th Wave failures. (A Failure is an impulsive Wave where Wave 5 is shorter than Wave 4 by price.)
- Wave 3 cannot be less than 1/3 of Wave 1 by price.
- Wave 3 cannot be more than 7 times Wave 1 by price.
- Although there is no minimum time constraint for Wave 3, its absolute maximum time limit is 7 times Wave 1.
- Wave 4 can be any corrective pattern.
- Waves 1, 2 and 4 cannot overlap except by 15% of Wave 2 with leveraged securities, and then only for a maximum of less than two days.
- The gross price movement of Wave 4 must be greater than either the gross movement of Wave 2 of 3 or Wave 4 of 3. The gross price movement of Wave 4 must also be greater than either the gross movement of Wave 2 of 5 or Wave 4 of 5. The gross movement by price of Wave 4 must also be greater than 61.8% of the gross movement of each of these four subwaves.
- The gross movement by price of Wave 4 must be greater than 1/3 of the gross movement of Wave 2 by both price and percentage movement.
- The gross movement by price for Wave 4 must be less than three times the gross movement of Wave 2 by both price and percentage movement.
- Wave 3 and Wave 4 cannot both be failures. (A Failure is an impulsive Wave where Wave 5 is shorter than Wave 4 by price.)
- Although Wave 4 has no minimum time constraint, the maximum time for Wave 4 is twice the time taken by Wave 3.
- Wave 5 must be an Impulse or an Ending Diagonal. However, if Wave 5 is longer than Wave 3 by price, then Wave 5 must be an Impulse.
- Wave 5 must move by price more than 70% of Wave 4. (This is not gross movement. Only consider the end points of both Waves.)
- Wave 3 must never be shorter than both Wave 1 and 5, by either price distance or percentage price movement.
- If Wave 5 is truncated, or contains an Impulse that is truncated, then neither Wave 3 nor Wave 4 can contain a subwave that is truncated. (A truncated pattern is where Wave 5 is shorter than Wave 4. This is also known as a failure.)
- The maximum movement of Wave 5 is six times Wave 3 in both price and time.
- Wave 5 has no minimum time constraint.
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/...es/EWRules.htm
rgds - arco
HOLLY ****
i thought i was getting on top of the rules
:D
DB
Try a read of Glen Neelys version of EW if you can find a copy in Borders.
Also Miles Wilson Walker from Auckland has an interesting slant on the short term trading using EW, (How to Identify High-Profit Elliott Wave Trades in Real Time), and Steven Poser is another EW 'master' - (Applying EW Profitably).
Mind boggling
rgds - arco
Updating the previous EW chart
Interesting that both 261.8 wave one projections terminate in the same area
Time alone will tell.............
i just got a friend of mine to give me his ew on gbp , he subscribes to elliotwave .com
Signal = Sell stop below 2.0800 area.
Risk Reward Ratio = 2.39+ (Medium Risk)
Our First target profit at 2.0657 area.Second will be at 2.0535.
Stop Loss at above 2.0927 area.
Great Britain Pound Elliott wave Analysis :-
Last Friday we had a clear correction downward form at GBP/USD chart.
That is the first signal of more possible down fall moves if cable continue to loose bullish momentum.
We see last friday downfall as our first sub-wave a of wave (iv).
The duration of our objective target sub-wave c may vary.Its all depends on market movement.If it made a strong move down, we will see sub-wave c may complete in very near future.And if market have a slow bearish momentum, we could see market take a longer time to complete sub-wave c of wave (iv).
Critical zone of wave (iv) would be at 2.0370 area.If Cable break that support and trade below 2.0350 point , it will be a major downfall for a logger period of time.
Latest GBP/USD Elliott wave analysis on medium term basis
if anyone was clever enough to pick top of wave B 3oo + pips to be had yesterday
safer trade now on as price taken out A low
butterfly in progress on hourlies
was long Eur against the pound last night got 80 pips.
hitting critical level of 20370 area have closed out shorts
if this is taken out serious correction in progress worth another short
c wave worth 500 +
safe trade 150 +
may be possibilty of 4th wave completion for a run north
divergence on q stick
bat prz
bullish engulfing
rising trend line support
low risk entry would be entry on wave 2 retracement with stop loss at 20350
the weekly supports the case of further correction in gbp
evening star print and by a few pips wave 4 has overlapped wave 1
i would still trade from long side but get as close as possible to key support at 20350
and set a stop and reverse.
very interesting to see the outcome
this trade clicking uo 350 pips , looking to close out and short
action has more of a feel of a corrective pattern
c wave of a (b)
gartley prz (2.0950 ISH) would provide a safe entry point for big move of c wave , first target would be
around 2.00
as always confirmation required and it may not make it to prz
Nice trade DB........you are doing extremly well.
Cable - Agree, looks very much like a bearish scenario unfolding.
Getting short is at a low risk point with the potential of a move
into the lower pink box. Good R/R.
Interestingly the big brown box on the chart it the
'old brown moth' target from years ago (shown at
various times/places on this thread).
rgds - arco
looks like south bound move underway
preferred count would be wave c
alternate count would even better iii of a 3
650 pips on c wave so far
pausing at 4th wave consolidation before hitting lower channel around 2.00 - 2.01
would seem a good place to close shorts
would now in my opinion be worth looking at short again
i was fortunate to see a good risk reward trade as the wave 4 retracement came pretty
close to wave 1 on previous chart
short at 2.05 sl 2.0540
aiming for original target around 2.00
One order got triggered overnight @ 2.0440....currently +100
Possible target down towards the 2.000 level (will re-evaluate once I
get Rooters EOD download at 11am)
Heres an updated chart showing a potential green Gartley
in the making, with a target down near the 2.000 area.
That would complete a 5/3/5 ABC pattern.
rgds - arco
______________________
Moving on nicely now after a shaky start.
+284
This is the way I'm currently looking at GBP/USD, with an expanded flat correction we should be looking for a turn around where wave C is 1.618 the length of wave A, which according to my calculations this is around 1.955
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z...gbpu1-10-1.gif
Hi Craig
That fits nicely with the BFs as mentioned earlier on the Eur.Gpb thread
rgds - arco
bullish on gbp
currently in a 3 wave abc correction of wave 2 or b
looking to buy into retracement off downtrend line to ride c wave up target around 2.00 initially
Hi DB,
I'm currently long GBP and looking to add at 9720, right around the 20 day moving average which acted as strong resistance on the way down for this pair, now that its through I'm thinking this could give us some support
hi craig
i reckon the a wave looks like its finishing ( doji on daily, trendline , doji and divergence hourlies 6 am candle
i think it will retrace to your level mentioned at 19750 in a b wave possibly even to 19550
before resuming run on 200 for c wave
currently short 19850 sl 19920 targets as mentioned
starting to look like gbp ready for what could be a powerful run higher currently 1948o
good risk reward with stop 194 4o
got stopped have had another go risk level 193 6o entered 194 1o
still fancy this one putting in a big move north
I,m sure I posted this an hour ago before the move but its disappeared so this comment was pre the jump
if its any consolation Paul I think Eur Gbp is going to assist
and now it has
well last night should have compensated for the previous one DA - well done!
I joined you for +165 now closed overnite. very small trade coz cable is a bit scary sometimes but on this occasion in a good way.
note that 1.9650 is a 78% retracment area.
thanks peat well done as well to everyone
i used 618 as target so i am there but looking for another entry
i reckon yen is the next one to have a look , it hasnt moved for a while
especially usdj
trying to get as close to 110 for a short
GBP looking strong with a break out of that range and the triple play in the macd; divergence, moving ave cross over, and centerline cross over
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z...u32/gbp3-6.jpg
currently short gbp 19730 sl 198 target a lot lower
3 rd wave down in progress , confirmed down trend line
risk event 11 gmt boe rate announcement should cut and give a push lower
retracement up has broken down
Hi DB
Nice post, just an observation are you preferring to elliot wave count in preference to butterfly patterns eg d leg in the making at present on this one,are you finding wave count more reliable,or no particular reason?
cheers
roddy
hi rod
a bit of a shocker got stopped out
this trade was based on 15 min chart , there was a nice elliot wave count but it was wrong
the daily chart is really used for the big picture direction
im as sure as you can ever be in this game that gbp is going lower unfortunately the stop
loss would be 2.001 top of internal wave 2 (top at 04/04 )
so just tried to sneak on down trend with a resonable risk reward so will defintley look for
another short entry
the butterfly has no real relevance until action gets near the reversal zone
been watching euro closely looks like an ascending triangle forming ill post on euro thread
been following this for a while
there is a good risk reward profile to test triangle hypothesis
d wave completing setting up to go long for the e wave run north
>>>>>>>
Or perhaps the Red BF is still in charge ........the action
has passed through the first target zone
>>>>>
Action has touched the lower red box as per last chart.........
100 easy pips (so far) for those quick off the draw........
That mega fall from the 1st box was circa 250 pips......hope a few
forum members caught some of the action.
The plot just managed to touch the 127.2 line (red box) and also reacted to an old support area. (Dotted green line on previous chart).
......................Could be another interesting week next week
arco
8.30 pm tonight - Consumer Price Index (CPI) - UK
Measures the change in prices for retail goods and services, including food and gas. The CPI is the key measure of inflation for the UK and is used by the Bank of England in making interest rate decisions. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical British household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Sterling to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.
In order to manage inflation the Bank of England may raise interest rates, which slows economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Pound more attractive to foreign investors, and the higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Pound.
This announcement tends to move markets on release so there may be some scalping opps if you are around at 8.30 pm NZT
nice one peat ,
i have spent a bit of time looking at possiblity of usd strength having a bit of a breather
there is a clear 5 waves up and 3 wave correction on the 5 min chart which may suggest
bottom in place at 185 09 similar on eur usd
this should provide a good few pips before decline resumes ( dollar strength)
a lot of traders out there waiting for it though , caution required