Yes a very odd pair......unfortunately I do not
get the EOD chart on CAN/JPY so unable to comment.
Printable View
Yes a very odd pair......unfortunately I do not
get the EOD chart on CAN/JPY so unable to comment.
arco
Xerof gave me this site to look at odd pairs
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/graph/streamingchart.asp
4hour chart
just had a look on a larger time scale and 5 could be over already.[:I]
if so a short on a
Slam
Thanks for the link.
Personally, over a period of years I have found
its easier to get to know 6 pairs really well
and concentrate on them for trading purposes.
arco
know what you mean.
Just had to much time on my hands[:I]
PS do you still think NZD will go higer before next drop?
I get .7207 on the fib from .7354 to .6971
PSS wheres Xerof? miss his posts
cheers
slam
Slam
Re NZ. Hard to tell at the moment exactly
where it will turn.
Gann resistance at 7202 (minor) which fits
in around the Fib 618 area, plus the is a
major Gann level at 4324 if needed (close
to Fib 786).
Markets are dynamic in nature and we know they
move in cycles, we just have to be ready to jump
on the next one when it appears.
The idea is not to worry too much about getting
the exact top (or bottom) but to cream off a
sizeable portion of the longer move.
I think Xerof is busy with Mrs Xerof or maybe
even his 'Fund of Funds'.
PS. Xerof have you invested my $20 yet? :D
How come you seem to get the Top/Bottom more often than not then;):DQuote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
....
The idea is not to worry too much about getting
the exact top (or bottom) but to cream off a
sizeable portion of the longer move.
....
Because I don't worry :D
Gentlemen, you've missed me??
I am still around, although haven't done a lot of trades lately - finalising the "fund of funds"
And Arco, although Mrs Xerof is a director, the relationship is more akin to a that of sleeping partner :D:D
Aren't we just seeing some relief to the overbought situation for USD? No trend changes IMO. Buy dollars - wear diamonds [^][^]
High yielders still in vogue, but IMO toppy, in fact may have seen tops last night. If not circa .7200 for Kiwi should be about it.
Xerof
Hello Xerof
Take is easy with you Fund of Funds......looking
forward to being at the launch [8D]
http://www.mcjeff.com/animat/champagne2.gif
Those members who received the EW book may
find this site of help in working there way
through the EW jungle.
Jeff D. Greenblatt - around 46 charts with EW counts
updated regularly.
This site uses Fibonacci time and price relationships,Elliott wave analysis, fractal geometry, chaos theory, lunar cycles and interplanetary combinations as well as traditional technical analysis and is for educational purposes only.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/F...t?obj=ID693789
heheh sleeping partner....
i've scaled back on my Eur shorts thinking the trend was over
been getting burned on my OZ and Kiwi ones that I replaced them with ... still in on Kiwi tho Oz got stopped. Patience being tested tho!
We really think $ are still the shizz??
Wots happening tonite on the news?
May be of interest to EWavers
Know the Wave Principle, Know Thyself 1/12/2005
The "Best Of" Series
Excerpts from Prechter's Perspective
In the 2004 edition of the book, Prechter's Perspective, that contains interviews with Bob Prechter, one
reporter asked Bob about the difference between knowing the Wave Principle and using it for trading.
Let's see what Bob had to say:
Does knowing the Wave Principle guarantee profits?
Only the most trained and experienced market participants can act against their natural tendencies. I have
yet to meet a person who invested or traded with a completely rational program based on reasonable
probabilities, without allowing greed, fear, extraneous opinions or irrelevant judgments to interfere.
It is man's emotional side - particularly his social dependency- that makes him think the way his fellows do;
when he does this, he loses money in the markets. At least using Elliott, you have a basis that makes winning
possible.
What do you advise people to do who want to learn to use the Wave Principle?
The first thing to do is begin following market charts closely. Label and channel the moves according to the
Wave Principle. You'll gain confidence immediately if the market is in an impulse rather than a corrective
pattern. This is when I was fortunate enough to begin, so I quickly saw what was happening. Corrections
are more varied and difficult; still, they are components of impulse waves and also contain impulse waves,
so you will always find corrections at some degree.
What are the Wave Principle's key strengths?
A.J. Frost [co-author with Bob Prechter of the basic Elliott wave textbook called Elliott Wave Principle, Key
to Market Behavior] liked to say, "Its most striking characteristics are its generality and its accuracy." Its
generality gives market perspective, most of the time, and its accuracy in pointing out changes in direction
is at times almost unbelievable.
Why does it work so well?
Because the Wave Principle is 100% technical. No armchair theorizing from economics and politics
necessary.
What's its biggest shortcoming?
There is one main weakness, and this accounts for just about all the problems: There are 11 different
patterns for corrections. When a correction starts, it is impossible to tell in advance which pattern has
begun, so you do not know how it's going to unfold. Therefore, the best that you can do is apply some of
Elliott's observations as guidelines in making an intelligent guess as to what it is.
Are there situations where the Wave Principle does not hold true?
No. It always holds true. But it's one thing to say the markets will follow the Wave Principle and another
thing entirely to forecast the future based on that knowledge. It's always a question of probabilities. Once
you have hands-on experience with it, once you understand the rules and guidelines, it's a lot like becoming
Sherlock Holmes. There are many possible outcomes, but guidelines force you along certain paths of
thinking. You finally reach a point where the evidence becomes overwhelming for a certain conclusion.
Hi arco
This may have been asked before, if so sorry, but do you have any sites where I can read up on butterfly patterns?
cheers
slam
Slam.......try this for starters.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gartley.asp
http://www.tradingday.com/c/tatuto/voodootrading.html
arco
Thanks arco
At a quick glance of an inexperienced eye,
there seems to be a pattern forming on the 8hour NZ chart
bearish wolfe maybe[:I]
Looks more like a Bullish Rampant Trouser Snake :D
Now here's a site of note......
http://aes.iupui.edu/rwise/
.......just for a change you understand!
anyone got a press:D
Trust Warren to spoil the party when everything against US is looking short:)
Quote:
quote:Boston, June 23: Warren Buffett is
on CNBC saying he takes a macro view on the USD and expects it to fall over time
owing to the current account deficit. Whether it will fall anytime soon, he
can"t say. Given Buffett has to report quarterly earnings, we would suspect he
will continue to make overseas acquisitions that will help absorb some of his
bad USD bet
Slam
Warren is probably panicking because he is
abundantly short the USD..............
when I say abundantly (LIKE $22 billion
which he admitted to being short USD at Berkshire's
last annual meeting).
How Buffett tripped over the dollar
MSNmoney, 06/15/2005.
The greenback's big rally against other currencies has proved Warren Buffett -- and other dollar bears --
wrong. Here's what Buffett missed.
Berkshire investors suffer. An uncharacteristic earnings growth setback at his Berkshire Hathaway
conglomerate in the first quarter was attributed to this wrong-way wager against the greenback in favor
of other currencies -- including the euro, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and British pound.
The second quarter is concluding with an even worse tone for the position. It’s not fair to assume that the dollar’s rally will continue, but it has shown typical American scrappiness in its comeback against doomsayers and ill-wishers.
Is Buffett likely to be proven right anytime soon, or will his investors continue to suffer from his bearish
posture toward the buck? It all depends on your view of the relative strength of U.S. and European economic policies and political structures.
Buffett has told shareholders that he took his original position based on a belief that Bush policies had led to unsustainable twin deficits in the federal budget and the balance of our trade with the world.
so in other words, he had to say that didn't he;)
Sure did Slam - he has a major investment there.
__________
Now summat smells a bit fishy, and its
not Mrs Xerof cooking dinner.....or
Major Ganns kit bag.
Mmmm...all the oscillators are on the reverse side
of zero to what you might think they should be.
There could be a trap in them thar hills my dear
friends........Beware of the big bad wolf.
Have a good weekend all.
arco
isn't buffet famous for investing in -stocks- ?
isn't investing in -stocks- how he made his billions (in a round a bout way)?
stock investor... turned currency speculator - nice one.
(no, i'm not implying anything, gotta give it ago...)
Are you talking about any particular pair arco?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
...
Mmmm...all the oscillators are on the reverse side
of zero to what you might think they should be.
There could be a trap in them thar hills my dear
friends........Beware of the big bad wolf.
.....
Slam
Check out USD paired with - GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD, JPY.
There may be others.
Zyreon
Buffett has something like $38B in cash.
It must hard to find opportunities
to put all that money to work.
But why would you bother...stuff in a TD. :D]
and sleep easy.
Slam -
Sorry I was on the mobile to Buffett [8D]]
Just to make that point clear.
The oscillators are appearing to signal
perhaps short term bearish USD.
arco
Hope you put him straight about trying to influence with news;)
got me a demo account going on the oanda web platform now....
quite cool coz I can do it from work heeee
ummm maybe thats not so good tho...
Tsk, Tsk, first it was porn sites, are FX sites next to be banned in the workplace?
Xerof
they dont ban anything where I work
but I'm sure the proxy server has good logs......
i was reading through course notes for "125.320 International Finance" for semester 2 and they suggest using Oanda demo account to help learning etc...
well i've been using it at work today - productivity has reduced somewhat [}:)] and its lookin pretty good... my comparison is GFT's DealBood FX2 software
Being a java based web app portability is a bonus - without loss of much functionality that I can see yet.
All very quiet on the home front people
Lots of pairs at important junctures atm
A waiting game
NZD and AUD seem to have finally stopped following the EUR/USD.
Most civilized sessions I’ve seen, so look out when it all gets going again.
Still, not hard to pick up 20-30 pips on short term trades when it’s like this.:)
Cheers
Slam
the calm before the storm... [}:)]
[8D]
Morning all
Interesting session of lows being tested again.
Thanks for the charts arco, got them in my book but handy to have digital at the ready for quick pattern recognition.
Cheers
slam
Some thoughts for the beginning of July - an historically poor month for the Kiwi.....
The rapid decline seen in GBP this week may be a precursor of what may occur now in NZD, followed by AUD, as the high yielders begin to fall out of favour.
Fed did its 'cut and paste' as I expected - another straw on high yielders backs
Bring on the poor data stream and its all over Rover
Now back to those charts.....where are those bearish bats and spiders.....
Xerof
Morning Xerof
The Butterflies and Bats need quite a bit
of attention today. Some of them are still
fulfilling their promises from weeks/months
back, but there are a few newer possibilities
in the nets.
Amazingly EUR is possibly printing a Bullish Bat...
now that cannot be right me thinks, so I will take it
with a pinch of salt for now.
Perhaps Major Gann will reveal something a little later ;)
Amazingly EUR is possibly printing a Bullish Bat...
That pinch of salt came in handy.
And the 886 Bat Fib was not confirmed
with the required reversal pattern.
Xerof - are you using Mako as a contrarian indicator ;)
I am Arco, I am.
I saw his comments on buying Kiwi for the 'summer', and his long Euro position and thought to myself, oh dear, there's one more fund down the drain shortly:D:D
But I see he's only 38 years old, so he has a lot to learn[^][^]
......and the fund holders were blissfully
unaware, that as they slept, Mako burned.
Tossing a coin might be more profitable until
he gets the hang of it.
Alternatively my services are available for a
reasonable sum.....discounted rate US$1000 per hour
Hey....now thats what I call a bargain ;)
I spotted an interesting post on another
forum re articles in the current YTE Magazine.
http://www.yte.com.au/
Apparently there are 2 articles - one an
interview with Welles Wilder who says...
“I believe that within the next 10 years,
we will see a situation in the USA, that
will be as hard on the ordinary family as
1929 was”, he then goes onto say out of
control Government and personal debt will
trigger spiralling interest rates, property/
stock market crashes etc.
The other article was by David Burton and
in it he says and I quote “if you understand
Gann cycles, you will see that after 2008
the economy is likely to collapse” he then
goes onto to say similar things to Wilder.
A copy is winging its way to Warren, - should
perk him up a bit ;)
My view is it may happen earlier rather than later on a 10 year timeframe, but I concede it won't be as quick as Rachael Hunters hair product[^][^]:D:D
Xerof
Make sure you guys are watching your screens at 7pm tonight as I will be at a mates watching the rugby with murphy:D;).
put a 10 on for me miner and I'll do the same for you:D
The JAFA's lost and I see murphy has had an ok trading night so far,hope someone grabed a few pips off murphy;).
Guys, nice little commentary that might help put things in perspective as to where we might be in this USD rally
http://www.blackswantrading.com/file...sccc070505.pdf
Interesting article Xerof
slam
he does a daily email linking to his commentaries, , while he doesnt really give actual trade tips , they are quite good from an strategic perspective.
cheers pete
just signed up.[8D]
slam
Black Swan do give trade ideas if you subscribe as a member. US99 per mth. They're currently short from 11980 EUR, short oz and have just gone long USD/CAD as well. I have them on a watching brief at the moment to see how they go over a month or two
Xerof
Good Morning All
Xerof
Please keep us posted on your test of
the Black Swan subscription.
Many thanks
arco
Roger wilco
More ammo for USD bulls - Armagedon appears imminent
http://www.blackswantrading.com/file...sccc070605.pdf
Xerof
:D:DQuote:
quote:Cannon to right of him,
Cannon to left of him,
Cannon in front of him
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly he rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of hell
Rode Warren Buffett.
The commander's place is not back with his staff but up with the troops...In moments of panic,fatigue or disorganization,or when something out of the ordinary has to be demanded from them,the personal example of the commander works wonders,especially if he has had the wit to create some sort of legend around himself.
Well you boys have been using war analogies,quotes,so thought chuck one in that I read this week hehe,500 pips to the one that knows who said it.
Rommel dear boy:D:D
Hmmm 500 piparoonies - nice - and I only deal in 10 mill lots too. Shall I post my settlement instructions?
[:p][:p]
Smart cookie ay Xerof[8D],the question now is what sort of pips do you want? pear apple or some off my nice lemon tree out the front?,let me know and your mailing address and I will send them ASAP;).
Cheers
Miner
Good Morning All
A few minutes before I get the EOD Forex data,
so in this time I will mention Charity Book Fairs.
I have recently purchased at minimal expense some
very interesting trading/business books - all in
very good condition.
"Bob Jones on Property" - old but very pertinent even in
todays market. (Actually rare and worth $35 S/H)
"How to make money in Stocks" (CANSLIM method) - William O'Neill
"The Electronic Trading of Options" - Abell
"The Rise Fall and Flight of Brierly Investments" - Williams.
"Marketing Warfare"- Ries/Trout
"Location Location" - Michael Boulgaris
Amazing Value - the whole lot - only $10.
So IMO, well worth checking out your local
charity book fairs, collect a few books
and increase your trading knowledge.
In the past I have also picked up books on our dear friend
Warren Buffett....I think they were 50c.....sorry Warren you're
not worth very much secondhand. ;)
Now to download.
Miner, I hear pips quite a nice lass - ahem, what about a motel address instead of residential[}:)][}:)]
Arco, speaking of your friend Warren, have you placed your bid for the charity lunch with him? I hear the current high bid is US250k, with choice of Omaha or NYK for food and drinkies. Thats around 2k per mouthful and slurp, assuming the standard burger and fries, and a bottle of Muller Thurgau each
Personally I won't be bidding, and I do wonder if the charity is actually Berkshire[}:)][}:)]
Xerof
Yuk few spinny tops on last hourly[V];)
Explosions in London's underground,friend just said was on TV,explains the moves?.
A few close calls,one was on the train behind,one just got out of the subway,and another had her appointment cancelled or she would have been right in the middle of it all,lucky.
Black Swan today........interesting
“As US interest rates continue to rise and the dollar strengthens, the hot money that flowed into Asia on the back of Rmb revaluation may have started to leave. I estimate the total amount of hot money at around US$700 billion. Such a reversal could have a major impact on Asian asset prices.” Andy Xie, Morgan Stanley.
More here...............
http://www.blackswantrading.com/file...sccc070705.pdf
Good Morning All
I closed all my positions off on Friday evening,
except for leaving a long order in place just above
the action in CAD.
Unfortunately the loonie dropped further so that was
not triggered, therefore starting off the week with a
clean slate.
How old do you have to be to get meals on wheels[?][B)];)
Miner, are you alluding to Arco's magnificent achievement of making 4000 posts, or can't you get yourself away from the screen to eat.
0800 838383 used to be good for a pizza meal on wheels, but could try 0800gotohell, for a hot little number
cheers
Xerof
Eat in front of the screen[8)],cooking it is the tricky bit,but got it sussed for tomorrow night as made a one pot brew tonight,so just heat her back up for dindins tomorrow:D[8D];).
As for Arco's 4000 hadn't noticed,good on ya Arco 4000 quality posts[^].
Cheers
Miner
one word - microwave... [:p]
buttered chicken on basmati rice in 7 minutes....
after reading on MACD over the weekend I'm seeing negative divergence everywhere....
time for the Euro to start falling soon..
Have to start a traders cooking tips thread Peat:D,as for the EUR out of the 4 pairs I watch eur/jpy has the tidiest looking daily's and did zip on bomb night so am watching that for the lead,through .35 today see if holds above.
Cheers
Miner
My account is looking a little less healthy with Euro and Kiwi at these levels... :(
Trying to put a brave face on it and maybe add some more higher... tho my flexibility in this only goes so far.
My MACD analysis over the weekend kinda warned me that this might happen with dailys and 4 hourly's looking bullish , tho weeklys are still down. So will ride it for now.
Arco - dont say I told you so
!@#$%^&%$# power cuts[V]:(
Bailed out of everything - did try the staggered approach both in and out but this steamroller mowed me down. 2/3rds of profits gone. A sad day in my forex history, breaking mm rules is bad.
But I do live to trade again, and not quite from scratch.Will ponder about the lessons learned, regroup and be back. Hopefully I'll be smarter.
Well the #$@^%$# power just came back on:(,but at least still in my trade and up 90 odd pips:D.
Missed a good mornings trading I see,bugger[B)]
hey all just been playin around with the oanda "game account" for a couple of weeks - trying to get some free training/practise .
I just discovered one of the features on it before - the stop loss adjustment; when you set your stop it shows as a horizontal red line on the chart, when you want to adjust the stop you right click the line and u can move it up and down - so it's good for being able to position it above/below any obvious areas of support/resistance.
That sounds handy Zyreon[8D],as for me had to house sit for a mate last few nights so couldn't play FX,but will be back on the front lines next week;),hope you all had an ok week on the battle field:D.
Cheers
Miner
yeh the oanda game is pretty cool - portability plus!
Peat Re your eur/usd post,have you tried reading nothing at all (no outside thoughts numbers) and just trading off your screens.
I call it isolation trading[8)],works ok for me,not that I'm doing it now as just wrote this[B)];).
Cheers
Miner
Thats a good suggestion - I might work with that!
Also I think that last weeks events is driving the way forward for me to develop my own views and act on those. Frankly, I havent been too good at that and have been strongly influenced by others. And it done well for a while but its not sustainable or even always appropriate. I guess I just figured that in my first year of trading I needed all the assistance I could get.
in your first year of trading what you really need is an immutable position sizing system and exit strategy.
(i.e. cutting losses)
remember - the first years' goal is -survival-
I still have about 5 months to go before i clock in a whole year... so far I'm surviving - came close to the brink trading NYSE CFDs but then realised I suck at equity trading and made money on just about all my forex trades. have managed to claw my way back with subsequent forex trades, but I forcast break even wont occur for another few months yet.
in any event the practical experience has been invaluable for my BBS studies
Yep Zyreon stops for sure,putting a stop on is the first thing I do after I buy,also think try things find what works for you,I tried something new the other week and it's working well[8D].
Screen time as with shares has allot to do with it also.
CD on relaxed,empty mind and first thought trade hehe;).
O-Yeah and make dindins now while paint in drying:D.
waiting waiting.
This market needs an enema
May need to change my sleeping habits so I can stay up all night and sleep through the day while the markets doing the same.
yeh totally
pretty hard to turn a buck in a market like this....
to you more experienced traders - is this usual or what?
Hi Pete
Not that I'm an experienced trader, but the hard part about trading when the market is like this, is the daily swings (or should I say nightly)
If you are unsure as to which is the next move, but act on gut etc, your stops have to be wide to absorb the over night stuff. I lost allot of pips in the start from setting stops to tight. Look in the morn only to find I've been taken out and the pair moved back to where I was in the first place or better.
Motto now, Stay out until you have a definite position and the mind set that you are right. That way you don't waste pips trying to second guess small moves.
Guess it depends on your length of trade.
Patience is the trick wait for the trade,until then I'm reading a good book with half an eye on the screen.
Gidday guys,
set your charts up across all timeframes, and look for all the contracting triangles. We are in consolidation mode, waiting for breakouts, i.e. momentum trades. The swing trades are out the door for a while, at least until we get some trends going again.
Historically late July/ most of August are usually deadly dull, as summer holidays in Europe, and USA tends not to bother as well.
So get your triangles sorted out, and leave stop entries above and below, to catch the next moves, or play each side of the ranges with tight stop and reverse.
Of course these breakouts can occur any time, so still need to screen watch if not prepared to leave orders outside of ranges.
Just finished reading Da Vinci Code, to relieve the boredom - not a bad read.....
cheers
Xerof
cant stay up all nite watching these gyrations :(
markets being a ***** in my aggravated opinion
lol yeah, like a fricken rubber ball
Look forward to seeing you back after you've had a chance to rehydrate those butterflies, bats and spiders ARCO [8D][8D]
Spotted you over on TT[^][^]
Nice trip??
regards
Xerof
Hello Xerof
Yep, need to get the brain back into gear and
the nets back in action. Could take some time
I reckon [8D]
arco
The same might be said of Central banks for the meantime.Quote:
quote:It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I beat people up - Muhammad Ali
A lot of techies have revisited their tealeaves this morning and have turned bearish the USD....a bit late... 12255 was the key level for EUR as an example. 12497 is a 50% fib level
I note a rather large iridashi issue announced last night for NZD 1.43BILLION, and a 150m Eurokiwi as well - OFFFFFF the sell order!
6998 is another key fib level, as well as trendline resistance
with NFP tonight I have a clean slate and will stay out
Good weekend to all
Xerof
i been in touch with a lady economist at Jyskebank in Denmark and she reckons Kiwi is on its way to 0.7150
everyone gone and died?
i been flat for a while now tho...
i need to be more careful with my next trades and this market is very difficult to predict it seems , constantly changing direction , no clear trends etc...
Hi Peat
Still here;)
Currently long GBP/USD, NZD/USD
have been for a while.
I just hold wider stops in times like these, but if you look at the hourly to daily charts, direction is still there for quite a few pairs.
next reversal for the above 2 is close imo
Cheers
Slam
Take a look at eur/jpy hourly from this mornings daily change,lucky I was out and about today[B)],the old sideways ****e after the run now usual stuff,other pairs I watch and this one don't know whether they are Arthur or Martha lately[|)];).
Still here Peat, but not a lot to talk about for the moment.
As you say miner, its Arthur and Martha trying to decide their bent...
and its August, which is renowned for slow sloppy markets with stop hunts the only game in town
Best not to declare your hand if in:D:D
cheers guys
Xerof
Morning All
The tide is a turning on the USD crosses me thinks.
Looking for shorts to establish on peaks atm.
Anyone else have an opinion?
Cheers
Slam
Yeah Slam, looks like a corrective move for most pairs is in play - only corrective for me at the moment though, but see what develops. First targets:
Kiwi 7010 ish
Eur 1.2285 ish
Gbp 1.80 ish
Xerof
sold a bit of GBP this morning as it broke out of a triangle, Eur has done the same. Kiwi simply needs a retracement from o/b status