Agree 100%. Very good of you to do this and to offer to continue for another year. Many thanks.
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Agree 100%. Very good of you to do this and to offer to continue for another year. Many thanks.
THANK YOU!! Sylvester Cat. We all learn so much from this competition (and of course we can't all be winners). The learning comes from seeing other investors choices and their results.
Thank you.
Little did I know when I wrote the above post that the latest episode of world market volatility would start the very next day. Of course like anyone else with a decent spread in a portfolio of shares I am down as a result. The end of October result sees me +11.1% for the year (down from 12.5% at the end of last month). But in the relative contest I have jumped quite a bit: from 74th to 38th place. By contrast the NZX50 is now only up 4.2% for the year. So my outperformance of the index is now 6.9 percentage points for the year. This is the kind of thing I expect in a tough market and is a vindication of my deep value strategy. Not that it needed vinidicating. There are plenty of studies out there that show this kind of strategy works just like this.
From this result, you can see why I do not use a 'stop loss' strategy. I am only down 1.4%. The brokerage I would have to pay to 'recover' from this loss, if I had gone in and out of the market, would be greater than the loss I experienced.
SNOOPY
end-November results are out!! Results are available at on https://sites.google.com/view/sharet...icks-2018/home
Note that...
1) I've adjusted HBL to HGH to allow for the code change;
2) I've written down CBL from its last trade of $3.17 to $0. (sorry).
Summary top 5 results are shown here...the markets are volatile and so is our little competition!! DON'T FORGET TO GET YOUR ENTRIES IN FOR NET YEAR!! - the more the merrier. Will also look to make the results more automated, and perhaps add another "active" competition running in parallel...:-)!
Username Pick 1 Pick 2 Pick 3 Pick 4 Pick 5 Opening Investment Closing Investment add Dividends add Rights Issue TOTAL $ RETURN TOTAL %AGE TOTAL Annualised %age Rank RGR367 ATM BLT OHE RAK SKO $10,000 $12,510 $0 $0 $2,510 25.1% 27.3% 1 Vr PLX AIR ATM WHS MVN $10,000 $11,710 $437 $0 $2,148 21.5% 23.3% 2 Lawnmower man ATM SUM SML PPH HLG $10,000 $11,934 $149 $0 $2,083 20.8% 22.6% 3 chinesekiwi OCA VGL PLX ARV FNZ $10,000 $11,838 $241 $0 $2,079 20.8% 22.6% 4 Pending PPH ATM SKO IKE WDT $10,000 $12,071 $0 $0 $2,071 20.7% 22.5% 5
Doing a sterling job here Sylvester
Nice of you to post the top 5 ...saves me going to your website
Good 'battle of the beagles' shaping up here. The other Beagle made a stellar start and has now embarked on an end of year retreat. This Beagle stumbled along nearly tracking the index until the October volatility started. Then the index dropped away and I didn't. So I am now up to 24th place only one spot behind the other Beagle. The index has recovered to +5.5% for the year and I am at +12.2%. So I am now looking at a 7.1% percentage point out-performance of the index. Bring on December 31st! Having said that I am unlikely to match my absolute performance for 2017 of 22% (+1.5% on the index), or even the +13.1% for FY2016. Hopefully I will stay ahead of the +11.8% result for FY2015. I see I achieved +18.65% for FY2014 but was back to +9% in FY2013. +42% seems to be my best number though, back in FY2012. Given most of these returns are cumulative, I can't complain about where I have ended up after the last six years of NZX investing! My entries over the last six years were as follows:
Portfolio Return 2018: CEN RBD SKC SKL SPK +12.2% (pending) 2017: CEN RBD SKC SKL SPK +22.0% 2016: CEN PGW RBD SKC SPK +13.1% 2015: PGW RBD SKC SCT SPK +11.8% 2014: PGW RBD SKC SCT SPK +18.7% 2013: RBD SKC SCT SPK TUA +9.0% 2012: RBD SKC SCT SPK TUA +42.0% Cumulative Return 2012 to 2017 +183%
Notes
1/ Just to make that clear. For every $1000 I had at the start of 2012, I now have $2834 after six years of investing.
2/ Note that SPK (or TEL as it was) RBD and SKC have been held over the whole period.
SNOOPY
good on ya Snoopy, but would have thought he real plaudits go to those who are in 1st place!!!
This is all about learning. If you blow your own trumpet, you're closing your mind off to the possibility that others might have better ideas in terms of their investment selections.
What's the old saying...pride before a fall? I like to say that hubris prevents learning as well.
Actually correct tho. If you kept losing money at that rate, you'd have to keep topping up (to lose it again!!). I think in some companies, including CBL, they call it a capital raise.....????
I guess for negative returns i should cap it at 100%. It makes no difference in terms of your individual "picks portfolio" though!!
WOW...you know its been a brutally tough year in the market when the top performer of over 170 entrants is up a modest 25%.
Coupe of other fixes that will appear in the next update:
1) Have fixed ARV share price on June 18th - that was causing a weird downwards spike for those of us who picked it (no change overall, just that one date)
2) Have fixed the graph to show dates properly (had not realised, sorry about that)
3) Have put the ranking column back in the webpage (for some reason, the webpage had pushed it out).
No great changes, but tidies it up a bit.
From a strict perspective, viewing this as a competition on its own, you have a point. However, I don't think you would find a single investment advisor that would tell you to put all your money in the market on 1st January and pull it out on 31st December. So I prefer to look at this competition, which I must add I appreciate your hard work organizing Sylvester, as one year of a multi year strategy. I also put my money where my mouth is. So that means my competition returns are a fair representation of my actual returns over the period.
From a pure winning the competition perspective, the best strategy would be to pick your five hottest growth shares as your entry. But in the competition there is no actual loss risk to fictional capital. So I suspect many of the high performing entries bear very little reality to the shares those punters actually hold. Good on them for 'winning'. But winning a competition with a fictional entry is of no interest at all to me. I do find the competition very useful for keeping track of my portfolio through the year though!
Not at all. I am happy to hear other peoples ideas. But most stick in their competition entries and we fellow entrants are none the wiser as to what the strategy behind the picks is. If you go back to my entry I think I did explain why I picked what I did in advance.Quote:
This is all about learning. If you blow your own trumpet, you're closing your mind off to the possibility that others might have better ideas in terms of their investment selections.
I have put up my performance, which I am happy with. If others have done better over the six years, then they are very welcome to paint their own picture.Quote:
What's the old saying...pride before a fall? I like to say that hubris prevents learning as well.
SNOOPY
Regardless of the philosophy...(and we defintely agree that its only if you put more in!)...
The actual way the picks portfolios are calculated is on actual value on the portfolio - I've checked. So its comparing a total with a total and giving a percentage difference. Its NOT trying to "weight" the %age difference of -108%! So in your case...
- you started with $10k
- your total return, including dividends, is -$875.72
- your %age difference is -8.75% for the first 11 months of the year
- if you kept losing $ at that rate, your annualised loss is 9.5%.
So that's what i mean when i say the actual calculation, and your ranking, is correct as it is based on actual values.
Of course, at the end of the year, the annualised value and the actual return become the same figure anyway.
Enter username greater fool Overall Rank 135 out of 170 Share Weight Initial Investment Shares Open price Close price Close Investment Dividends received Rights Issue value Total $ Return %age annualised %age Pick 1 CBL 20% $2,000 657.89 $3.040 $0.001 $1 $0.00 $0.00 -$1,999.34 -100.0% -108.6% Pick 2 MCK 20% $2,000 732.60 $2.730 $3.040 $2,227 $43.96 $0.00 $271.06 13.6% 14.7% Pick 3 NWF 20% $2,000 13,698.63 $0.146 $0.155 $2,123 $0.00 $0.00 $123.29 6.2% 6.7% Pick 4 OCA 20% $2,000 1,904.76 $1.050 $1.140 $2,171 $89.52 $0.00 $260.95 13.0% 14.2% Pick 5 SPK 20% $2,000 550.96 $3.630 $4.230 $2,331 $137.74 $0.00 $468.32 23.4% 25.4% $10,000 $8,853 $271.22 $0.00 -$875.72 -8.8% -9.5%
Updated results for December 14th now available.
I have taken into account greater fools comments above - so the loss on an individual share limited to 100% for the annualised percentage, and the portfolio annualised return %age adjusted accordingly. It makes no difference on Dec 31st, but its a fair enough change to make in the context of not tipping in more capital...
And yes - we have yet another new leader!! Well done VR, return of close to 30% looking pretty good! Of interest is...
- Craig's Investment Partners is in 8th place, a long way ahead of other Broker's picks.
- Our average this year is an eye-watering MINUS 1%!!!
Username Pick 1 Pick 2 Pick 3 Pick 4 Pick 5 Opening Investment Closing Investment add Dividends add Rights Issue TOTAL $ RETURN TOTAL %AGE TOTAL Annualised %age Rank Vr PLX AIR ATM WHS MVN $10,000 $12,416 $437 $0 $2,853 28.5% 29.8% 1 RGR367 ATM BLT OHE RAK SKO $10,000 $12,304 $0 $0 $2,304 23.0% 24.0% 2 Pending PPH ATM SKO IKE WDT $10,000 $12,283 $0 $0 $2,283 22.8% 23.8% 3 chinesekiwi OCA VGL PLX ARV FNZ $10,000 $11,846 $262 $0 $2,108 21.1% 22.0% 4 t.rexjr IKE NTL RBC SKO TWR $10,000 $11,811 $0 $0 $1,811 18.1% 18.9% 5
Full results are available ont he usual website...https://sites.google.com/view/sharet...icks-2018/home
What a tough year...medium return for spot 85 is just 0.1%. Top quartile starts at position 42 at just 7.3% total return.
Sort of returns one expects when you buy a market that’s ridiculously overvalued — history shows buy when PEs are high (market and individual stocks) future returns always disappoint. That’s how markets go.
Median return 0.1% is pretty good in these circumstances
NZX50 PE still higher than at beginning of year even though earnings trend not looking too good. That doesn’t bode well for 2019 does it
SHARETRADER TOP 5 shows a pretty dismal oerformance considering how we all think we are so great etc etc etc
What do they say about the collective wisdom of crowds (the wise ones)?
No its pretty ominous. We are fortunate in N.Z. to have a high dividend yield by international standards and a good imputation system which allows the selection of a number of defensive high yield shares with the aim to achieve a top quartile return like that 7.3% without the need for capital gain.
Though remember we can't sell those we "hold" in the comp:eek2:
It is the mid December update and in dollar terms I have suffered (now only up 11.7% for the year). But in relative terms I am pulling ahead. Now up to 18th place (an all time high) with the other Beagle down at p41 (although +7% in this market is still a creditable performance) . NZX50 now down to a 3.9% gain for the year. So I am now 7.8 percentage points up on the index. Spookily I am now right on the tail of the 'Not Roger' entry at p17. Can I pull ahead of this honorary third Beagle before the year clicks over? Who would have picked Spark to be my best performer of the year!
SNOOPY
Snoopy me ol’ mate
Surely ‘Spookily’ is meant to be ‘Snoopily’
Thanks to Sylvester posting the Top 5 I don’t need to go the full list ....improved position as well In December ...that’s spooky
Woof, woof, well done. Now the year is almost over I will let the "cat" out of the bag so to speak with who is this mythical other beagle called "Not Roger Honest"
Its former legendary poster on here Crackity my old mate who cheekily almost picked exactly the same stocks as me and has a wonderful sense of humour including for instance calling his jet black colored old dog "Snowy" Well done Crackers !
Hi Mr Beagle and all,
Happy holidays!
Can anyone please send me a link to the competition results as I have been unable to see all year and wish to put myself out of my misery.
Thanks,
-dodgy
Can we have a screen split this year so the results scroll past the headings, please? Some of us are so far down... :scared:
Hi all...
Results to December 21st are out...pending a miracle on Monday, or when I find any obvious errors I have made, looks like VR will take it out with a return of around 30% - 10% clear of Chinesekiwi and RGR367. Final results will be out shortly after trading close...perhaps with some "sylvesteralysis" to go with it!
Full results are at https://sites.google.com/view/sharet...overall-result. Remember, you can navigate to the "Individual" page for more detail, or enter your username up the top on the main page - that will bring up your results compared to the NZX.
Still plenty of time to enter the 2019 competition too!!
Username Pick 1 Pick 2 Pick 3 Pick 4 Pick 5 Opening Investment Closing Investment add Dividends add Rights Issue TOTAL $ RETURN TOTAL %AGE TOTAL Annualised %age Rank Vr PLX AIR ATM WHS MVN $10,000 $12,496 $437 $0 $2,933 29.3% 30.0% 1 chinesekiwi OCA VGL PLX ARV FNZ $10,000 $11,724 $262 $0 $1,986 19.9% 20.3% 2 RGR367 ATM BLT OHE RAK SKO $10,000 $11,964 $0 $0 $1,964 19.6% 20.1% 3
Hoping I can maintain last position with the 'anti' share picks... With everything so volatile and many of perennial underperformed well doen.. Hard to find 5 clear cut 'anti shares for 2019...
Well, here are the END RESULTS FOR 2018!
A huge congratulations to VR who shamed us all with a total return of 35%. PLX, ATM and a well-timed takeover of MVN were the winners on the day....
Username Pick 1 Pick 2 Pick 3 Pick 4 Pick 5 Opening Investment Closing Investment add Dividends add Rights Issue TOTAL $ RETURN TOTAL %AGE TOTAL Annualised %age Rank Vr PLX AIR ATM WHS MVN $10,000 $13,078 $437 $0 $3,515 35.2% 35.0% 1 RGR367 ATM BLT OHE RAK SKO $10,000 $12,618 $0 $0 $2,618 26.2% 26.0% 2 Pending PPH ATM SKO IKE WDT $10,000 $12,602 $0 $0 $2,602 26.0% 25.9% 3
An honourable mention to lawnmower man, who in his first year has turned up a creditable 13th, and led the pack for much of the year. This purring puss had a strong finish to the year also, ending in 12th place. Also congratulations to hamish, who maintained his 'anti' picks, cleaning up last place by a considerable margin.
A few useful stats and / or questions....
1 - NZX return of 4.9% achieved 59th place - meaning only a third of us beat the market, with what is essentially a 'buy and hold' strategy. So is it "safer" to invest in passive funds, knowing that some years you'll be ahead or behind with an "active" strategy?
2 - The shares we loved the most - the "Sharetrader Top 5" - came in at 99th place. Oh dear...collective wisdom perhaps not the way forward?
3 - Only 2 Sharebroking firms 'beat the market' - Craigs with a creditable 18.1% return (8th place) and MSL with 7.1% (46th place).
4 - Our average return was a poor NEGATIVE 0.5%!
The full list of results is attached in the usual place....https://sites.google.com/view/sharet...overall-result.
Will try to make this a bit easier to read for the 2019 comp.
Here's to a fruitful 2019 for all of us :scared:!
well done sylvestercat, good effort
glad you posted only a few ...saved me the effort going to the results website
Woof woof, thanks heaps purring puss. Congrats to all who beat the NZX50 index.
Thanks, Sylvester for a fun comp. I think some of us are probably willing to 'take a punt' on shares we would not risk real money on.
Hi SC... just wondering if you could post the results here as the link isn't working? Thanks! PH
Sorry Peter - try the new 2018 link, i've migrated it to that and deleted the other site.
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks/2018-results
Thanks so much! P