I am not sure what is going on with the MET price. Its 5.50pm yet on the DB site it seems as though MET is still in pre-close price matching phase. Last trade $4.10 at 16.19...price match 4.21 ??
Printable View
I am not sure what is going on with the MET price. Its 5.50pm yet on the DB site it seems as though MET is still in pre-close price matching phase. Last trade $4.10 at 16.19...price match 4.21 ??
Rechecked things
Lower end guidance of 34m is 6% up on FY 13 - but H2 14 will be down 20% on last year
Top end numbers are 19% for FY and minus 3% for HY
Hard to read what al this means, esp when underlying profit is meant to be the one to use and excludes all the funny stuff.
Maybe H2 13 of 23.4m wasn't a real number (underlying that is) and contained some stuff that is not going to happen again. It was a lot higher than H114 and is not being repeated again this year.
All up and down and the announcement was all shot and sweet and late in the day - obviously didn't want to explain things too much.
That'll just make people speculate. Like me who will always take the lower end of guidance and st means second half profits are down 20% which is shocking
Hope not a new trend in the sector
I obviously just don't get it - it's all good news ....whoopee ......bugger I don't hold but good news should in the sector is good an it will help SUM and RYM
Metlifecare sees annual earnings growth of up to 18 percent
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/5...18-percenthtml
Article originates with businessdesk.co.nz and just goes to show that some journalism is unadulterated rubbish.
I would also take issue with MET and their use of selective numbers from the accounts to make up the prior 'underlying profit'. Go read the actual accounts and make your own decisions.
But it all boils down to this: MET currently do not have many new units to sell and that really does limit their profit.
Hopefully this year is the bottom and it is up from there.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Earning growth slows for Metlifecare but new villages will underpin future strong growth
Metlifecare reported yesterday an "underlying profit guidance of between $34 million and $38 million for the year to 30 June 2014." This is an 18% increase on the previous year.
Half year to December 2013 underlying profit increased was significantly up from $8.6m the prior year to $15.3m. The latest guidance signals lower growth in the second half of the year.
Market analyst P Tiger attributes this to Metlifecare currently not having many new units to sell.
Respected market commentator and renowned expert on the retirement sector Harvey Spectre says this is only a temporary lull expects "their build rate to significantly increase from here." Spectre reports that the "new Glenfield development is one of the biggest recent developments in the sector and work has already started and sales pitches are underway."
Metlifecare share price closed unchanged at $4.10 yesterday. Consensus market opinion is that the retirement sector will continue to deliver strong gains fo share holders with the Metlifecare shareprice targeted to be over $6.00 next year
Is it a modest PE given their patchy track record and more limited growth profile than SUM ?
You can replace the "modest" and "healthly" with whatever you like. "Eye-watering" and "measly" come to mind.
Of course, everyone has a crush on SUM. She is far more attractive. PE's don't really matter for that stock:)
ps. I'm just a bitter because I've missed all the gains as I don't get it.
Watching this closely, still int in an entry. S/p is not looking good and if it doesn't bounce soon looks (to my bad T/A eye) like its about to fall through the floor!
$3.90 now last seen re dec/jan. A down trend looks imminent. Any longterm holders out there?
Some quite big parcels going through yesterday - and this seemed to have depressed the price. Started to creep up again after the 200k parcel (200k shares, not dollars) early pm and looks like it continues to recover today. Not sure who of the big holders was in need for money (and whether they need more ...), but not panicking yet. Discl: holding and so far intend to keep it that way.
Im looking at a poss turnaround story . The dec announcement has bought some new directors with skillsets hopefully to do this with a consequent kangaroo s/p rerating. It won't happen overnight or maybe they will fail worth more research.
DIRECTOR APPOINTMENTS & CONFIRMATIONSFollowing the recent change in shareholding, retirement village and aged care provider Metlifecare Limited (NZX: MET; ASX: MEQ) is pleased to announce the appointment of Kevin Baker, William Smales and Carolyn Steele as directors.
Kevin is the Chief Financial Officer for Infratil Ltd and its manager, H.R.L Morrison & Co Limited. He is the Chairman of NZ Bus and a director of Infratil Energy Australia and Lumo Energy.
William is a Senior Executive and Investment Director at H.R.L. Morrison & Co Limited. He has extensive investment experience across a number of industry sectors and previously spent seven years with The Carlyle Group.
Carolyn is currently the Portfolio Manager, Direct Investments for the New Zealand Superannuation Fund. She has substantial experience in capital markets, mergers & acquisitions and investment management. Carolyn is an alternate director at Datacom Group Limited.
The Board has also confirmed the independence of the Chairman, Peter Brown, as defined by NZX Listing Rule 1.6.1.
Metlifecare’s Managing Director Alan Edwards has relinquished his seat on the Board to separate the functions of the Board from management. Mr Edwards will continue to lead the Executive Team in his role as the Chief Executive Officer.
The Chairman of Metlifecare, Mr Peter Brown, commented: “Metlifecare is in an exciting stage of growth with a number of developments in the pipeline. We are delighted to welcome Kevin, William and Carolyn to the Board. Between them they hold valuable expertise in the financial, property and investment sectors and will bring complementary skills to the Board as we continue our growth strategy”.
The Metlifecare Board now consists of four independent directors and three non-independent directors.
ENDSnd story here. From dec 13 announcement
May well be but you are paying a much higher multiple for that growth.
Met is def a long term story i agree there.
Good to read your thoughts NewGuy as have been becoming a little grumpy with MET's SP of late
Right or wrong, I took a smaller position (relative to SUM) in MET because I liked the sector and wanted to increase investment without tying it down to one operator, Ryman just seemed too expensive to me at the time
My research was not very thorough but PE at 13 c/f sum 21 and RYM 28, EPS .30 against .16 and .29, but NTA at $3.56 compared to $1.30 and $1.57 gave an impressive price to book of 1.1x compared to 2.65 for SUM and 5.25 for RYM
I understood that they had not historically completed a lot of development but had been selling down excess stock from acquisitions. But they have started and have a good land bank so are cutting their teeth perhaps. Further, I read somewhere that they were increasing the ratio of care bed facilities to those villages without this important facility. METs op costs were also considered higher per bed and there ws talk of cost savings. I liked the large exposure to the Auckland market also.
So I bought a few when MET and SUM's SP were seemingly tied at the hip, and was very pleased when it rocked up with the change in SSH but as I say, have watched this decline since. I agree that SUM rings more bells but don't know if I can dismiss the potential of MET yet. Eager to read more comments, thanks
Cheers. But then if it MET had twice the growth, I guess its SP would be significantly higher too. Further, are we sure SUM are selling all they are buliding?
If the answer was simply to go out there and build I guess they would be doing that right? Do they maybe have lower occupancy rates and lack demand? Do you think SUM's build rate is sustainable and doubt MET could achieve more? Operationally I understood the three had quite similar charges and fee structures.
No issue with your pref - I'm 4:1 on SUM but as I say, don't know its a dead horse..
We are only about 6 months into the Infratil/Superfund buy in. As with Shell/Z I am imagining they had a plan/vision for MET when they bought their stake. Not all IFT's purchases pay off but with the support of Superfund, they had two heads checking over the strategy. Patience may be needed to see a turn around for MET.
Outside of the conversation mill and Metlifecare quietly rises...
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
good to hear the planned build rate is on track ..
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/193031.pdf
Wasn't the Poynton the village they've struggled to sell for the last 4-5 years?
hmm - you sound quite angry ... did you loose money with them?
I guess they came from a different business model (buying existing villages instead of building new ones) and just recently changed ownership, board composition and build targets. Sure - they didn't complete their 2015 promises in 2014, but I still see this as a positive announcement. Why not cut them a bit slack until they had a chance to prove what they promised?
MET still quietly rising nicely. One year return is re 18% compared with SUM, 11.75%.
Year to date according to NZX, MET just ahead of SUM return wise but not much in it.
Date: 23 May 2014
Media Release
METLIFECARE LIFTS UNDERLYING PROFIT GUIDANCE
Metlifecare (NZX: MET; ASX: MEQ) advises that its underlying profit1 guidance for the year ending 30 June 2014 is increased to a range of $43 million to $46 million, from its previous guidance of $34 million to $38 million.
The lift in underlying profit guidance results from stronger settlements activity at The Poynton Stage 3 and higher capital gains and deferred membership fee income from resales activity. The underlying profit earnings guidance is based on Metlifecare’s trading performance to 30 April 2014 and assumes a continuation of these recent trading trends for the next two months to 30 June 2014.
Development is underway at three villages on Auckland’s North Shore. Stages 1 and 2 at The Orchards in Glenfield, collectively 54 apartments and 36 hospital beds, are now under construction, with considerable interest shown in both stages. At Metlifecare’s newest retirement village, Greenwich Gardens in Unsworth Heights, earthworks are nearing completion. The final stage of construction, comprising 62 apartments, at The Poynton is also underway.
With 14 out of a total of 25 villages in the Auckland area, Metlifecare is well positioned for growing retirement village demand in the region.
ENDS
PT did say MET doing ok....
Nice. First step of the turnaround and looking to a nice little re-rating.
6% jump today NICEEE
did you notice that MET is "well positioned"?
Oh no there are two of you or are you psychic/sidekick? :) MET 31.45% Year to date is outperforming RYM 27.5% and SUM 17.06%
Just an observation ...folk like New Guy have slammed MET ..often...and I believe that an institution(s) in recent times have downgraded METs future ability to perform and justify its shareprice ...what are simple folk like me to make of all this...is it mere humbug...hidden agendas ....or just the free flow of opinion.
That's what makes a free market I suppose.
New Guy may be proven right ...,.,.a comment now perhaps...cheers
NOOOOOO - don't get New Guy back to rain on our parade!
Here is a free bit of opinion from Macquarie - right or wrong it may be useful to you trovvdh.
http://www.macquarie.com.au/dafiles/...MTA2Mjk5NTk5S0
Hey JT, thanks for the PM. I replied but I don't see it in the sent folder so may have mucked that step up...
But cheers eh
Correction it is 1 year return not YTD . so as of today
MET up 31.85%
RYM up 28.46%
SUM up 17.73% source NZX
Lest we remember ,Met over 1 year has been superior thats the only authentic cold hard fact atm
Craigs have upgraded to a BUY , t/p $5.23
Thats a big increase from the current $4.47. I cant see their growth being that good. They have too many existing villages that are based on the old model to effect rapid change.
Maybe they have heard promising stories from IFT on what changes they will implement?
Yeah/Nah too dear IMO, Sum better buying at current prices but will see in a years time I guess, that price seems OTT when you consider their current build rate and that price is where Ryman was at just over a year ago and their build rate was more than double what Mets rate is currently.
Very good 18 page analysis comparing with the other 2 and showing its strengths and weaknesses and continuing management improvements with 6 great reasons to include MET in ones portfolio, a lot more turnaround/ to come; (good point silu) At a cheaper multiple MET is not priced for perfection.
Had a look at the old pink rag - digital edition and what do you? Craigs is not alone.
5 or 6 (for RYM) brokers estimates for the 3 operators and they think MET is you best bet for the year ahead.
Attachment 5900
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
After reading Sgt Pepper on another thread who said In this case the next government will inevitably reap the whirlwind of massive defaults in the Auclkland Housing market with 10% mortgages looming menacingly on the horizon. Add to that a sustained collapse in Dairy prices, and a sharp downturn in China the fallout, both economic and political will be severe the LOW for RYM is a cert
In that case SUM will have a 2 in front of it and MET will have a 3 in front of it
oh dear another disgruntled person losing out a bit from her inheritance
She should know better and realise the likes of Metlife are there to make zillions for shareholders
However best to mitigate bad PR ... and this a pretty sad state of affairs even if it is 1 percenter
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11269386
How about we form a syndicate which rents out units? Be a real goer i reckon; have fortnightly monthly 3 monthly 6 and 12 monthly terms with rent adjusted accordingly.
MET has slipped to p4, so thought I should revive
Craigs have covered giving six reasons why MET is a buy over SUM & RYM
- Turnaround complete, time for growth
- Better value than peers (NTA)
- Auckland Exposure
- Strong Balance Sheet
- Improved Op perf
- Building Development capability
Target Price $5.23
Suggests Met currently at -8% Price / DCF c/f RYM 13% , SUM 12%
Price to NTA 1.2x against 4.5x and 2.7x respectively
:) MET 31.45% Year to date is outperforming RYM 27.5% and SUM 17.06%[/QUOTE] 23/5
11/07/14 MET 37.31% RYM 23.7% SUM 6.29% Turning into a one horse race:t_up:
23/5
11/07/14 MET 37.31% RYM 23.7% SUM 6.29% Turning into a one horse race:t_up:[/QUOTE]
Met are yet to prove that the current share price is justified with solid sales figures IMHO and exists because of good forward guidance (unlike Sum) and the hype of infratil and the NZ super fund buying in only time will tell if the lofty price is justified:cool:
Time will tell but the loftier valuations are in fact SUM and RYM:cool: The market is speaking atp.
Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
I cant remember exact timeframes but a lot of MET performance is due to a rerating in relation to the change in ownership (removal of overhang but assumption of good management guidance etc being provided by IFT).
heres a great article on why these companies are such great cash cows lol
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-1...candal/5584412
With all the posting on RYM and SUM I'm surprised MET hasn't gotten any attention today. After all it was the hardest hit today but has been the most stable for the past several months. I'm eagerly anticipating their full year results to see if the restructuring is paying off and the result the market has to the full year results as I don't think the original jump in the share price was justified.
On the NZX I've only been accumulating SUM in the low $3 mark since RYM went over 7.80. I'd be very keen to jump into MET if the right price or results came about.
In my opinion the only Retirement village operator worth putting money into currently is AOG on the ASX. JHC was hit by the Australian Goverment cuts and lost some ground which has been the cherry on top of the cake with SUM losing so much ground. Here's hoping INA or LIC on the ASX could fire in the future to light the sector up a bit.
Metlifecare Limited (NZX: MET; ASX: MEQ) advises that it is due to make its
full year result announcement for the twelve months ended 30 June 2014 on
Monday 25 August 2014.
Announced yesterday, price drops 12 cents. Hopefully unrelated...
(edit; there was a parcel of about 50k shares left on the board overnight at around yesterdays closing price. Withdrawn this morning, maybe just shaking the tree?)
Arrow investment must bea bottom drawer one.
Bit slack in noticing their shareholding had been diluted, below 5%
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11313869
Listed retirement giant Metlifecare pushed up annual net profit after tax 18 per cent to $68.8 million after removing non-recurring items.
The result for the June 30, 2014 year just posted on the NZX showed settlement of 458 occupation right agreements, the second highest in the last six years.
Also very much liking this announcement unless there is something I don't know about Kim.
METLIFECARE ANNOUNCES KIM ELLIS AS CHAIR
discl hold MET
Looks pretty solid to my shallow gaze ; those who can drill down further what do you see.? Mkt likes it up 3.45%atp.
1 year return MET 38.04% :t_up:
RYM 16.4%:mellow:
SUM -5.25% oh dear:(
Big volume today. Always nice to see volume + rising share price after a FY announcement.
A totally unspectacular result but the crowd seem to like it.
Stating 200+ units pa from 2015 but that is not spectacular either
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: hold MET, but currently not RYM or SUM
So, I have recently sold the last of my MET shares and am completely out of the sector.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Did I imagine it or was there a news item on radio this morning to the effect that MET had announced the purchase of land in Auckland for another village? Nothing in the NZX announcements so perhaps it was old news?
:confused:
Was announced 13 January. New Red Beach village on the Hibiscus coast Whangaparaoa. Great area IMHO.
Thanks, Roger. I agree, it should be a great success there!
Strong HY result which could only mean that there will be a fall in share price today ;) But still a happy holder and in the words of Bonnie Tyler "Turn around".
Yes, looks good to me. What do our retirement village experts think?
I wouldn't hold myself out as an expert by any means but I'm impressed with this solid result. Looking ahead the company expects to match 1H earnings in the second half which implies a 2015 result of underlying earnings of $52m.
On just under 212m shares I have them on underlying EPS of 24.52 cps for a 2015 PE of 20.
Development margin is good at just under 21% and I think prospects are very good. Imbedded value per unit keeps going up.
The stock is relatively good value in a sector that's arguably very fully priced. With no questions over governance and management credibility I don't see why this stock should trade at such a large discount to RYM and is exceptional value relative to SUM IMHO.
P.S. More musings....The question in my mind about the whole sector is this, is growth starting to slow ?
We had Ryman recently reporting a half year result with underlying profit growth at 13%, slowest in years although management hastened to add they were confident of maintaining their 15% EPS growth medium term aspirations, we've had SUM come in with only 10% underlying EPS growth although talking about better growth this year, (who knows for 2016?) and now MET with annual EPS growth of 13%.
The big question in my mind is, Is MET under-priced or are RYM and more especially SUM significantly over-priced ? My money is on the latter theory holding more validity so I'll stay out of this sector who's favourable aging demographics have been well trumpeted from every mountain top for many years now. You shouldn't have to pay a PE of 30 to get growth in the low teens (percent per annum) and I for one won't. I'm tempted to buy MET but OTOH its had a good run and I suspect the stock is fair value and opposed to good value. If one must have exposure to this sector I'd say MET is best value and RYM if you want a set and completely forget stock. I wouldn't touch SUM with a barge pole.
Just as aside IFT holding 20% will be pleased in the result but I note no reaction to their SP as yet. Perhaps Mr Market is asleep.
Disc. not holding either stock but ift bonds
And OTOH if he didn't in the 12 months to date MET has kept up with the NZX50 up 16% whereas SUM, oh dear...only up 2% for a 14% under-performance.
There's much more to this story than the build rate. SUM makes nothing from its villages other than sales and re-sales whereas people might feel its well worth spending the time to read the analyst presentation attachement on the NZX website today regarding MET,( sorry time doesn't permit me to post a link at this stage).
https://nzx.com/companies/MET/announcements/261069
Note the five different revenue streams. Click on results presentation attachment.
I bought recently on the basis that this stock is very cheap for this sector with its intrinsic favourable demographics and my expectation that the new management ably supported by Infratil's expertise would drive the growth in new developments a lot harder than what's been the case in the past. They have an unleveraged balance sheet and are in excellent shape to expand their development profile, this was also an important factor for me. Looks like this is going to plan nicely.
Quote:
MET
01/04/2015 13:24
ASSET
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1324 HRS Metlifecare Limited
ASSET: MET: Metlifecare Acquires Another Auckland Development Site
Date: 1 April 2015
Media Release
METLIFECARE ACQUIRES ANOTHER AUCKLAND DEVELOPMENT SITE
Metlifecare confirms the conditional acquisition of a prime 5.5 hectare site
within the Manukau Golf Course, Manurewa, Auckland. This is the second site
acquired this year following the recent conditional purchase of 5 hectares in
Red Beach.
The land acquisition forms part of a proposed $175 million retirement village
project and is subject to the following material conditions: the satisfactory
completion of due diligence (including feasibility); resource consent of the
site being obtained by Metlifecare; and subdivision consent to be obtained by
the vendor. Development of the site is scheduled to commence in the calendar
year of 2017 subject to satisfaction of these conditions, completing detailed
design and undertaking earthworks on the site.
The site is on Great South Road and is part of the larger residential
re-development of the Manukau Golf Club. It is planned to be Metlifecare's
16th village in the wider-Auckland region and the 27th in the North Island.
Metlifecare CEO, Alan Edwards, commented: "We are looking forward to working
with the vendor, Fletcher Living, on this opportunity and providing more
retirement living and care options to the local area. Our vision for this
village is to see a retirement community established that complements the new
residential community to be created by Fletchers on the balance of the golf
course land. Seeking higher levels of engagement between these communities
through a public caf? and other possible shared services will form part of
our forward planning. We expect to have resource consent in the first half of
the 2016 calendar year."
The proposed village would be Metlifecare's second village in the area. The
other village is the popular Longford Park Village in Takanini. Upon
completion, the village is planned to include a wide range of one, two and
three bedroom independent living options and care beds. The planned community
facilities include a swimming pool, gym, caf? and bowling green.
Importantly, the acquisition supports growth in Metlifecare's development
pipeline. With the addition of this land, the pipeline is likely to grow by
over 400 units and care beds lifting the total pipeline in excess of 1,750
units and beds. Metlifecare continues to look for additional land development
opportunities.
Metlifecare currently has 349 units and beds under construction. The Poynton
(Takapuna), Greenwich Gardens (on Auckland's North Shore) stages 1 and 2,
Coastal Villas (Kapiti Coast) and Oakridge Villas (Kerikeri) will be
completed over the coming months. Stage 1 apartments at The Orchards
(Glenfield) are scheduled to be completed by the end of June 2015. The 36
care beds at The Orchards will be completed early in FY16 followed by the
completion of the stage 2 apartments. Stages 4 and 5 at Greenwich Gardens are
under construction with delivery split from mid-2016 until early 2017.
Metlifecare is a leading New Zealand retirement village and aged care
provider and currently owns and operates 23 retirement villages in prime
locations throughout the North Island of New Zealand. The company has two
villages currently under construction in Auckland - The Orchards and
Greenwich Gardens, together with the Red Beach site conditionally acquired in
January 2015.
ENDS
An update on their investments in the sector from Infratil.
http://www.infratil.com/assets/Uploa...&utm_term=here
Thanks. Very good acquisition that Aussie one. Makes SUM and to a lesser extent RYM look significantly overpriced.
Hi Roger,
not sure whether I understand. Based on which data in this report would you see SUM more overpriced than RYM? I agree that the book values of both their units look expensive compared to the Retirement Australia units (at 175k per unit - though you probably need as well to compare what you get for this money - not all units are made equal).
According the the IFT report the book value of a RYM unit is at 800k and the book value of a SUM unit at 400k. This compares to MET units at 270k, but than MET has as well a significantly older housing stock than SUM and probably RYM (not sure about the latter - don't follow them that much). So - unless the RYM unit is really 2 times more worth than the SUM unit (what I doubt), SUM is less overpriced than RYM, but both are per unit more expensive than MET. Right?
BTW - I did out of curiosity the same calculation for INA (not part of the IFT report), and their book value per unit is only 114k. Now - this is cheap ;)
Hi BP
I was referring too the acquisition IFT made which was IIRC at circa 18 times eps, a very similar forward metric MET trade on. Sorry don't have time for a fulsome debate today but I would say that one could make the case that RYM is N.Z. preeminent growth stock with a very long and distinguished track record of consistent EPS growth and therefore deserves to trade on a price multiple to the sector.
Much is made of MET's older portfolio but the last broker report I saw IIRC said the average age was 19 years, (no big deal if maintenance is being professionally done), but the key here is huge embedded value with much of their portfolio in Auckland and the Bay of Plenty...obviously arguably extremely popular retirement locations.
A bumper result from MET: revenue: $101.5m (slightly above expectations), profit $122.6m (you just must love these rises in property values), but even underlying earnings (I know, Roger ...) up by 13,9% to $52.4m.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/219358.pdf
And still better - the share was yesterday at market close still available at a Chinese worries discount, though suspect the price might change today. Make this a PE of 10 for a company with a CAGR of 9.8%. Looks like a bargain?
Discl: happy holder;
Yes, first impressions looks good BP. NTA $4.29 a share means you're paying zero premium to invest in this growth company. Sound long term value.
Will leave further analysis for later. Too busy on AIR.