I take on board most of what you've said but I'm not sure about PEB's price reflecting expected sales data. The current price is a significant discount to a
potential share price assuming 1% uptake in the first year.
The cautious case
If they can earn 1% market share in the USA for bladder cancer, they will do around 8000 tests per annum, or around 660 a month, or only 22 a day. That would suggest $6.4-$7.5m approx in revenue, and around $3.2m to $3.7 in NPAT
in $USD. That suggests around 1.35c to 1.6c in EPS in NZD.
If they can grow by around 35% a year in market share for the next five years, then their share price should re-rate to 80c-90c for the end of FY2013.
A more bullish case
If PEB can earn 3% market share, they will do around 25,000 tests, which will deliver $20m USD in revenue, or $9m USD in NPAT. This is around 4c NZD in earnings. Let's say they can grow this by around 25% per annum over the next five years. I would see an intrinsic share price of around $1.70 then.
A very bullish case
PEB get 5% market share with 25% growth per annum. That's 40,000 tests, $32m in revenue, $14.4m USD in NPAT, or 6.3cps in earnings in NZD. I would see intrinsic value of around $2.70.
- - -
Now, how many tests can the lab do a year? 260,000. Presumably they didn't build for that level of capacity unless they thought they could do it one day.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/165006.pdf
Thus speaketh the Clown. I reserve the right to recheck these figures tomorrow.... :-)